Author Topic: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector  (Read 15305 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« on: February 24, 2015, 10:33:28 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6052
  • Tommy Points: 767
http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

Nylon calculus has a lot of cool advanced stats, but their rim protection stat is really cool. They combine the player tracking opponent fg% at the rim with a percentage of the shots that a player actually contests.

Zeller rated 9th at points saved per 36 minutes, ahead of guys like Asik, Noel, and Duncan. His OFG% at the rim was good (50%), but his contest rate (56%) is fifth in the NBA, which means he is really putting forth the effort to be a rim protector.

According to this stat, Zeller slots in right between Ibaka and Robin Lopez at points saved per 36 minutes, both of whom people on this forum have said we should try to get.

I know this isn't necessarily a popular opinion, but I think we have a decent rim protector/finisher on our team already, and he is on a rookie contract. I just don't think a player like Lopez, or Sanders, or Ibaka, or Biyumbo, would provide much more value than what Zeller is giving us on a really good contract. Guys like Hibbert, Whiteside, or Gobert might be worth the extra money or draft picks to get, but that's about it.

Maybe we ought to let the third-year center continue to develop under Stevens?

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2015, 10:39:14 PM »

Offline TheFlex

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2791
  • Tommy Points: 367
Great post.


Draft: 8 first rounders in next 5 years.

Cap space: $24 mil.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dkcleague/

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2015, 10:54:41 PM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
He's a decent rim protector.  The Celtics really need a top shelf one.

Note that many of the players he's protecting the rim against are bench players.

Anyway, the real issue is that the Celtics are only getting 20-25 minutes of decent rim protection a night.  If they add another quality rim protector and get closer to 40-48 minutes a night of decent rim protection, there's a real chance they could have a top 10 defense.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2015, 11:03:09 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6052
  • Tommy Points: 767
He's a decent rim protector.  The Celtics really need a top shelf one.

Note that many of the players he's protecting the rim against are bench players.

Anyway, the real issue is that the Celtics are only getting 20-25 minutes of decent rim protection a night.  If they add another quality rim protector and get closer to 40-48 minutes a night of decent rim protection, there's a real chance they could have a top 10 defense.

I'm gonna disagree with you. According to this stat, he rates above 2/3rds of the starting centers in the league. The Hawks don't have a player who is in the positive of points saved per game, but they are a top tier team.

He is not protecting the rim against bench players any more than Gobert or Nurkic, who ranked ahead of him, were protecting the rim against bench players. Zeller has been are starter and gone against starters all year.

I would like to see Bass replaced with a better rim protector, he ranked as one of the worst in the NBA at contest %, which means he really isn't putting forth the effort there. I think I would get a really cheap one, or draft a player who can protect the rim a bit, but I wouldn't necessarily try to replace Zeller.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2015, 11:31:38 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

  • NCE
  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17914
  • Tommy Points: 1294
Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2015, 11:37:34 PM by kozlodoev »
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2015, 11:45:49 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6052
  • Tommy Points: 767
Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defensive prowess.

I don't think you can consider this the same thing as a volume shooter. From what I've seen, 50% OFG is above average bordering on good. That number would put you ahead of players like Al Horford, Gortat, Deandre Jordan, Josh Smith, Miles Plumlee, Splitter, Garnett, and Tyson Chandler. That is a pretty good list.

He, as a third year center, is not a great defender at the rim yet, but he is a good one. Combine that with his effort and you get good results.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2015, 11:49:41 PM »

Offline guava_wrench

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9931
  • Tommy Points: 777
Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his [defensive] prowess.
I don't know about that stat, but I do know that the only shots that matter in a game are the ones that go in. Who cares if a player gives up a lot of shots at the rim if those shots aren't going in? So long as we get the board, that is the end of the possession.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2015, 11:54:52 PM »

Offline TheFlex

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2791
  • Tommy Points: 367
DWC, I used your analysis to point out the defensive improvement shown by Tyler, who I own in the CelticsBlog DKC fantasy league: http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=65071.msg1833740#msg1833740

Thanks again for the thread.


Draft: 8 first rounders in next 5 years.

Cap space: $24 mil.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dkcleague/

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2015, 12:01:11 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

  • NCE
  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17914
  • Tommy Points: 1294
Quote from: DefenseWinsChamps link
50% OFG is above average bordering on good.
It's not. Sort by that and see where Zeller falls (hint: it's not in the top 40).
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2015, 12:03:08 AM »

Offline Chris22

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5081
  • Tommy Points: 460
The NBA is all about the three point shot now.

The two best teams, the Hawks and Golden State, are the two best three point shooting teams.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2015, 12:35:56 AM »

Offline Ogaju

  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19479
  • Tommy Points: 1871
http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

Nylon calculus has a lot of cool advanced stats, but their rim protection stat is really cool. They combine the player tracking opponent fg% at the rim with a percentage of the shots that a player actually contests.

Zeller rated 9th at points saved per 36 minutes, ahead of guys like Asik, Noel, and Duncan. His OFG% at the rim was good (50%), but his contest rate (56%) is fifth in the NBA, which means he is really putting forth the effort to be a rim protector.

According to this stat, Zeller slots in right between Ibaka and Robin Lopez at points saved per 36 minutes, both of whom people on this forum have said we should try to get.

I know this isn't necessarily a popular opinion, but I think we have a decent rim protector/finisher on our team already, and he is on a rookie contract. I just don't think a player like Lopez, or Sanders, or Ibaka, or Biyumbo, would provide much more value than what Zeller is giving us on a really good contract. Guys like Hibbert, Whiteside, or Gobert might be worth the extra money or draft picks to get, but that's about it.

Maybe we ought to let the third-year center continue to develop under Stevens?

I agree. TP to you.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2015, 12:43:54 AM »

Offline footey

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15974
  • Tommy Points: 1834
There are lies.

There are [dang] lies.

And then there are statistics.

--Mark Twain

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2015, 12:49:38 AM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his [defensive] prowess.
I don't know about that stat, but I do know that the only shots that matter in a game are the ones that go in. Who cares if a player gives up a lot of shots at the rim if those shots aren't going in? So long as we get the board, that is the end of the possession.


Well, one way this matters is that truly elite rim protectors don't just do a good job of contesting shots at the rim, they actually deter the opponent from even bothering to attempt shots inside.

This was a big thing a couple years back when people were talking about how good Larry Sanders was.  Same with Dwight Howard.  Teams actually change their shot distribution very significantly when facing guys like that.  Not so against Tyler Zeller.

Shots at the rim still go in at a fairly high percentage when defended by a good rim protector like Tyler Zeller.  That's why you don't want to give up attempts inside in the first place.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2015, 12:57:44 AM by PhoSita »
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2015, 01:06:55 AM »

Offline e4e5sesame

  • Oshae Brissett
  • Posts: 58
  • Tommy Points: 11
Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2015, 01:12:37 AM »

Offline banty19

  • Sam Hauser
  • Posts: 159
  • Tommy Points: 25
Here's the raw tracking data: http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203092/tracking/defense/

And the raw data for 2013-14: http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203092/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Two years in a row he's had comfortably above-average close defense so it's probably safe to say he's at least an above-average rim protector. And like many other bigs, he's less effective defending outside shots.

I don't know if I'd put him the class of Hibbert and Gorbet but he's definitely better than people give him credit for.