Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector

[banty19]

Well, one way this matters is that truly elite rim protectors don't just do a good job of contesting shots at the rim, they actually deter the opponent from even bothering to attempt shots inside.

This is true to some extent but not as much as you'd think. Looking at the numbers could help:

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/defense/?sort=FGA_DEFEND_RIM&dir=1

Tyson Chandler, a player with a defensive reputation is need the top. So is Ibaka (though he does play decent minutes/g for a big). And Dwight and the great wall of Hibbert aren't far behind.

NBA players go after even the best defenders.

[guava_wrench]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his [defensive] prowess.

I don't know about that stat, but I do know that the only shots that matter in a game are the ones that go in. Who cares if a player gives up a lot of shots at the rim if those shots aren't going in? So long as we get the board, that is the end of the possession.

Well, one way this matters is that truly elite rim protectors don't just do a good job of contesting shots at the rim, they actually deter the opponent from even bothering to attempt shots inside.

This was a big thing a couple years back when people were talking about how good Larry Sanders was.  Same with Dwight Howard.  Teams actually change their shot distribution very significantly when facing guys like that.  Not so against Tyler Zeller.

Shots at the rim still go in at a fairly high percentage when defended by a good rim protector like Tyler Zeller.  That's why you don't want to give up attempts inside in the first place.

That last paragraph is the one that deals with the stat. The actual percentages. I also don't understand if that stat mentioned earlier is just about challenging a shot, even if it goes in. That would be a lame stat, since if people don't fear you, they will shoot in your face, which will count as a challenge as it goes in.

The changing of shot distribution seems to be more about shot blocking than overall defense at the rim. If somehow a player was getting people to shoot a true shooting percentage of 45% at the rim without blocking any shots, guys would still challenge the guy despite the poor outcomes. Your defense would be amazing and that player wouldn't get much fanfare.

I imagine that part of the answer might be in the ability of a player to defend guys in the post versus swallowing up penetrators. I don't know what Perk's numbers were like at the rim, but he was never a deterrent for penetrators (apart from their fear of him fouling them hard). But perk could cause problems for bigs trying to establish a post game. What are the numbers like for Chris Anderson.

Also, shot blocking is stupid because when I shot block in 2k15, my player's teammate grade typically goes down when the shooter gets the offensive board. Just not worth it.

[guava_wrench]

Well, one way this matters is that truly elite rim protectors don't just do a good job of contesting shots at the rim, they actually deter the opponent from even bothering to attempt shots inside.

This is true to some extent but not as much as you'd think. Looking at the numbers could help:

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/defense/?sort=FGA_DEFEND_RIM&dir=1

Tyson Chandler, a player with a defensive reputation is need the top. So is Ibaka (though he does play decent minutes/g for a big). And Dwight and the great wall of Hibbert aren't far behind.

NBA players go after even the best defenders.

How does that count help defense?

One thing that might skew those numbers is that the best post defenders will be placed on the best post scorers.

[colincb]

Interesting post. It seems that BOS is a hair higher then the median in opponent's shots within 0-3 feet, but worst than the median, though not at the extreme, as far as preventing points within 0-3 feet (per BB-reference). Zeller is 5th in contesting FGs and 28th (i.e., he is the median) in allowing FGs at the rim out of 57 centers (per BB-reference's classifications) on the nyloncalculus list.

So BOS is effectively in the middle of the pack in allowing shots at the rim, Zeller is contesting a high level of FGs, and is the exact middle as far as preventing them. Unless you think Zeller's much more tied to the rim compared to other centers, you have to conclude that he's not getting an unusually high level of attempts coming at him at the rim to contest, is, however, contesting a very high level of rim attempts, and is dead center of the pack in denying them. 

By my eye test, he's more mobile, longer just because he's a 7 footer, more slight, and has less leaping ability than the average center and that together may explain why he is able to get to contest attempts, but is just so-so at stopping them. At the end of the day, he's much better than one would suspect at rim protection and thus ranked 9th per points prevented per 36 minutes among centers.

Once you sort out the reputed good and poor defenders, there aren't too many surprises. Kanter, Big Al, and Pekovic are at the bottom of these rankings and guys like Goubert, Hibbert, and Bogut at at the top of the points prevented per 36 minutes as you would expect. The rankings seem to supprt reputations by and large. Zeller's a surprise, but the rankings as a whole seem to make sense.

[Celtics4ever]

I went to the site, looked around and I call BS on this statement.  Especially the rated highly, opponents shoot 51% at the rim.

[kozlodoev]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

No, it's not, but before people go absolutely gaga about how Tyler Zeller is a GREAT rim protector (something which absolutely doesn't pass the eye test), they have to understand that IN THIS PARTICULAR stat, he's rated highly because he contests a large amount of shots at a pretty mediocre rate and not because he's efficient in contesting shots.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

No, it's not, but before people go absolutely gaga about how Tyler Zeller is a GREAT rim protector (something which absolutely doesn't pass the eye test), they have to understand that IN THIS PARTICULAR stat, he's rated highly because he contests a large amount of shots at a pretty mediocre rate and not because he's efficient in contesting shots.

kozlodoev, I think I get the point you are trying to make, but it seems like you are being a bit overly negative. His OFG% at the rim was bordering on 47 % earlier this year and was 48% last year. Those are respectable defensive numbers, right next to Chandler, Horford, Gortat, Asik, Jordan, Chandler, and Noah. There are few imposing big men in the NBA like the ones at the top of the list, but each of the players I just listed anchor playoff teams defensively inside. Zeller is a solid rim protector, especially for a third year center, and he may have the potential to anchor or co-anchor our team defensively inside.

The other thing you keep knocking is his high contest rate. That may bloat the "saved points a game" stat a little, but I don't think that is a bad thing. What's the use of having a lower OFG% at the rim if you don't actually contest many rim shots?  Zeller is averaging 7 contested shots a game in 20 mpg. Aldridge is averaging 6 contested shots a game in 36 mpg. Favors is averaging 8 contested shots a game in 31 mpg. Davis is averaging 7 in 35 mpg. Gortat is averaging 7 in 29 mpg. Jordan is averaging 9 in 34 mpg. Horford is averaging 8 in 31 mpg.

There may be other factors for the numbers listed above (scheme, position, etc.), but this does show that Zeller is putting forth a lot of good effort on that side of the court. He may have a higher volume of rim contests, but that is not a bad thing! He is showing effort and the ability to be in position as a rim protector. Effort is a skill, and one of the rarest skills in the NBA.

The main point I am trying to make in this thread is that Zeller, as a third year center, is both offensively gifted and a respectable rim protector. Rather than investing in another player, why don't we let Zeller continue to develop.

[SHAQATTACK]

Zeller =. Rim mamba

[e4e5sesame]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

No, it's not, but before people go absolutely gaga about how Tyler Zeller is a GREAT rim protector (something which absolutely doesn't pass the eye test), they have to understand that IN THIS PARTICULAR stat, he's rated highly because he contests a large amount of shots at a pretty mediocre rate and not because he's efficient in contesting shots.

I agree with you that this data alone doesn't prove that he's a great rim protector, but likewise maybe you need to be reminded that it doesn't prove that he's bad rim protector as you implied by comparing him to a volume shooter.

The opponent FG% is a pretty clear cut stat that doesn't require much interpretation to understand, but the contest % stat isn't so definitive.  If you want to claim that he's just a low efficiency "volume contester", you're going to have to convince us that his contest % is born out of something other than elite defensive instincts.  If you can't do that, what basis is there for saying that contesting a lot of shots inefficiently is worse than contesting a few very well?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Well said, e4e5sesame

[Kuberski33]

It's a really interesting stat.  However there's also the eye test. Why do opponents have their way with us once they get the ball into the low post?

My conclusion would be the TZ is not really an elite rim protector - but he does hustle his tail off.

[manl_lui]

gotta tip your hats off to Danny again for gems like Zeller and Thomas, all for practically nothing

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Bump

Update on Zeller's DFG% at the rim. After having a horrid trio of games defending the rim immediately following the Allstar break (allowing almost 70% at the rim), Zeller has put together a great stretch at defending the rim over the last five in 22 MPG.

In fact, since this post was made, Zeller has only allowed 12/38 at the rim, or about 30%. His best two games were against the Warriors (3/13) and the Jazz (3/11), both of which were against teams with solid players inside.

[hwangjini_1]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

No, it's not, but before people go absolutely gaga about how Tyler Zeller is a GREAT rim protector (something which absolutely doesn't pass the eye test), they have to understand that IN THIS PARTICULAR stat, he's rated highly because he contests a large amount of shots at a pretty mediocre rate and not because he's efficient in contesting shots.

kozlodoev, I think I get the point you are trying to make, but it seems like you are being a bit overly negative. His OFG% at the rim was bordering on 47 % earlier this year and was 48% last year. Those are respectable defensive numbers, right next to Chandler, Horford, Gortat, Asik, Jordan, Chandler, and Noah. There are few imposing big men in the NBA like the ones at the top of the list, but each of the players I just listed anchor playoff teams defensively inside. Zeller is a solid rim protector, especially for a third year center, and he may have the potential to anchor or co-anchor our team defensively inside.

The other thing you keep knocking is his high contest rate. That may bloat the "saved points a game" stat a little, but I don't think that is a bad thing. What's the use of having a lower OFG% at the rim if you don't actually contest many rim shots?  Zeller is averaging 7 contested shots a game in 20 mpg. Aldridge is averaging 6 contested shots a game in 36 mpg. Favors is averaging 8 contested shots a game in 31 mpg. Davis is averaging 7 in 35 mpg. Gortat is averaging 7 in 29 mpg. Jordan is averaging 9 in 34 mpg. Horford is averaging 8 in 31 mpg.

There may be other factors for the numbers listed above (scheme, position, etc.), but this does show that Zeller is putting forth a lot of good effort on that side of the court. He may have a higher volume of rim contests, but that is not a bad thing! He is showing effort and the ability to be in position as a rim protector. Effort is a skill, and one of the rarest skills in the NBA.

The main point I am trying to make in this thread is that Zeller, as a third year center, is both offensively gifted and a respectable rim protector. Rather than investing in another player, why don't we let Zeller continue to develop.

this is a good thread and i am learning quite a bit. to me, defensive stats in the nba are frequently suspect and uneven. they are not useless, but they sure dont have the precision that baseball offensive stats do. the stats often have too many holes for my liking.

a question...when calculating how often a player defends the rim, how does one separate an "active" defender (one who contests more shots because of agility, speed, etc.) and a player who defends the rim a lot because the defensive scheme funnels attacking players towards him, thereby inflating the opportunities for defending the rim?

i see CBS often has his guards direct/force attackers towards the baseline and the center instead of trying to block/cut off the attacker entirely.

how would this affect these stats?

again, thanks for the good points, but i remain puzzled and still a tad doubtful. 

next, and addressing the bolded part above. i think they are looking to improve at center since ainge believes you wont win any championships with zeller as your starting center. he is an outstanding back up center on a good team, but not a starter on a great team. just my observation.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

hwangjini, those are some great questions. I can't think of any ways where scheme would come through in the stats.

However, the Pacers run a very similar style of defense with Hibbert and Mahinimi inside. They "ice" the pick and rolls and beg the ball-handler to shoot the mid-range shot. If the ball-handler attacks, the rim protectors are in perfect position to contest straight up and down. Generally, the Celtics run Zeller and Olynyk the same way, whereas Bass, Crowder, Jerebko, and Sullinger will switch or hedge to give the other defender time to recover.

You are dead-on about CBS's system forcing players to the baseline and bringing a defender over to help. Sometimes, that defender is actually the weakside wing defender (typically Smart), who tries to take a charge (BTW, that is how the Heat protected the rim over the past four years with LeBron, Wade, Chalmers, and Battier). But it can also be the weakside big (the Pacers try to get Hibbert in that defensive position). Their job is to move their feet and get vertical. Olynyk did a beautiful job in one play like this last night.

The big wrinkle that I see in CBS's system is that he sometimes brings the strong-side big defender as the rim protector. In other words, if Zeller is defending his man at the 18 foot elbow extended, and Bradley is guarding the ball on the same wing, then Bradley forces the ball-handler to the baseline and it is Zeller's job to meet the ball-handler at the rim and get vertical. Obviously, only a very agile big man can get there that quickly.

Why does CBS use this wrinkle? I think the reason is because it is easier for the ball-handler to drive and kick to the opposite corner or wing than it is for the ball-handler to spin in the air and kick it back out to the big man that Zeller was guarding. This wrinkle allows the other Celtic defenders to stay on their man and guard the all-important drive-and-kick three (especially the corner). If Zeller (or Olynyk) is able to get to his helpside spot, then the ball-handler is forced into a tough finish or a difficult pass.

Schemes are designed to maximize player's strengths. In the Pacers' scheme, Hibbert basically hangs around the basket, because that is his strength. In the Celtics' scheme, Zeller ices pick-and-rolls and meets drivers at the rim. His quickness also allows him to help as a strong-side defender. That's just good coaching.

I don't think the Celtics are convinced that Zeller is a starting center yet, either. Obviously, Ainge sees a bit of a need for a rangy athlete inside. Wright was a rangy athlete who struggled with some of these defensive reactions and concepts of CBS's system. That was one of the reasons why he was traded. CBS needs intelligent players. Zeller is that. He is also young and still developing. He is also much more skilled offensively than a typical rim protector.

I think he skilled enough offensively to be a starting center. I continue to make the case that he is a good enough rim protector to be a starting center. I think the real concern is his rebounding.

Advanced stats indicate that he is only able to pull in 55% of rebounds per opportunity. That would put him in the bottom fifth of the league. There are other good bigs in that range (Thompson, Motiejunas, Gibson, Dieng, Mozgov, Ibaka, Pachulia, Ma. Plumlee), but in order to be our anchor, he needs to rebound better. Right now, the Celtics play at a slower pace because everyone is forced to help on the boards, but if our bigs were more efficient rebounders, I think the Celtics could run more, which would increase scoring efficiency and give a boost to our offense.