Marcus Smart vs. Deron Williams (my extra long post)

[Joe Green]

I am a big fan of Marcus Smart, as many here are, and I have been trying to figure out what his ceiling is, and who his game most emulates. There have been few "Big Point Guards" in the league, meaning not just tall but heavy and strong. Some classic come to mind in Baron Davis, Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller and Jarret Jack, but the closest I feel is Deron Williams.
Here is why I feel they are similar, why I feel Smart can actually be better and project Smart's ceiling based on this comparison.
First, the similarities:
Both guys are big for point guard, with smart being a little taller, longer and heavier
Smart stands 6"3 – 6"4 with a 6"9 wingspan and 8"3 reach and a diesel 225 lbs
Deron is 6"2-6"3 with a 6"6 wingspan and 8"2 reach coming in at 210

Athletically, Deron is a so-so athlete with a 30" no step and 35" max vertical both eclipsed by Smart's 33" and 36" respectively

Both were college stars, with Williams playing 3 years for Illinois and Smart 2 years for OK State. Here are their per 40 college stats compared:
Williams
16.5 ppg, 41% FG, 39% 3PT, 2.9 FT/G, 3.8 reb, 7.3 assist, 1.3 steals

Smart:
22 ppg, 42% FG, 30% 3PT, 10 FT/G, 5.8 assist, 3.5 steals

The numbers are a little skewed since Smart played a lot off the ball. Again, Deron played to 21 in college, so he benefited from playing against younger players. It is clear however that Williams is a better shooter and Smart a better rebounder and defender. Note that smart's ability to get in the paint offset his so-so shooting and boosted his scoring numbers considerably.

Lets compare their NBA Rookie stats per 36
Williams (21 years old)
13.5 ppg, 42% FG, 41% 3PT,  3 reb, 5.6 assist, 0.9 steals

Smart: (20 years old)
9.9 ppg, 37% FG, 35% 3PT, 4.4 rebs, 5.3 assist, 1.7 steals

So, it seems Williams is a better shooter esp from deep, but Smart is better in every other category. I will go even further and mention:

A.   Williams 3% is abnormally high for him and he has never hit the 40% mark again
B.   He is 21 years old here
C.   Smart's numbers are on the rise, and should get better as he gets more and more starts

So, Smart compares pretty well to one of the best PG of the last decade and a multi all-star at that. Projecting Smart's ceiling using this comparison, I would look at a 27 year old Deron – right before his injuries robbed him of his mobility.

That year Deron averaged: 20.1 PPG, 10.3 Ast, 4 Rebs, 1.3 Stls

Using those numbers and assuming Smart makes the exact same curve he should average:
14.7 PPG, 9.7 Ast, 5.9 Rebs and 2.3 Stl… not bad…..

I would say those are borderline allstar numbers right there…. AND.. given that Smart is younger, bigger and more athletic and already playing comparably well to a 21 year old Deron, I would say we have some very good years ahead of us enjoying Mr. Smart running our offense.

[droopdog7]

Really, the only real similarities between the two is size.  From there, they are quite difference, starting with the fact that Williams is a more natural PG.  He handles and passes like a PG.  Comparing the numbers is also not worth much at this stage.  You have to project the skill.  For instance, I don't project Smart to be anywhere near the scorer that Williams was in his prime.

Smart's biggest issue, aside from his offense, will be that he may be a tweener.  Not really a PG and not really a SG.  As a opposed to a combo guard, which is someone that can do both well, I am not sure Smart can do either well.

But we shall see.

[Joe Green]

Really, the only real similarities between the two is size.  From there, they are quite difference, starting with the fact that Williams is a more natural PG.  He handles and passes like a PG.  Comparing the numbers is also not worth much at this stage.  You have to project the skill.  For instance, I don't project Smart to be anywhere near the scorer that Williams was in his prime.

I agree the sample size is small but:
Smart is assisting at the same rate Williams was in his Rookie year, and at a younger age
Smart was in fact a far better scorer in College (note scorer-not shooter)
The point in metrics is that they help us see facts that we may be emotionally inclined to ignore (as in "moneyball").

The sample size is small, but is Smart would continue the same growth rate for 4 years, would you still stick to your "eye test"? also, why do you think Smart cannot average 15/10/5/2 ?

I am not saying its money in the bank, but given what I see and the numbers, I think it is not unrealistic.

[droopdog7]

In this best years, Williams averaged 20-10 or so.  I do not see Marcus getting to that level.  I just don't.

[kraidstar]

Really, the only real similarities between the two is size.  From there, they are quite difference, starting with the fact that Williams is a more natural PG.  He handles and passes like a PG.  Comparing the numbers is also not worth much at this stage.  You have to project the skill.  For instance, I don't project Smart to be anywhere near the scorer that Williams was in his prime.

I agree the sample size is small but:
Smart is assisting at the same rate Williams was in his Rookie year, and at a younger age
Smart was in fact a far better scorer in College (note scorer-not shooter)
The point in metrics is that they help us see facts that we may be emotionally inclined to ignore (as in "moneyball").

The sample size is small, but is Smart would continue the same growth rate for 4 years, would you still stick to your "eye test"? also, why do you think Smart cannot average 15/10/5/2 ?

I am not saying its money in the bank, but given what I see and the numbers, I think it is not unrealistic.

i think that projection is reasonable based on what we've seen.
smart isn't a natural scorer the way some guys are - and i'd argue d-will really wasn't a natural scorer either.
deron always got a lot of his hoops through hard effort, not exceptional skill/touch.

from what i've seen of smart, he should be able to grind out more hoops once he gets more comfortable. whether or not he becomes an efficient/high volume scorer remains to be seen.

i do love the way he imposes his will on games, though, he's a real terror out there, he uses his strength, toughness, and exceptional instincts to make life very difficult for the other team offensively. he's already better on D/loose balls that deron ever was, and i think smart's style will translate well into the playoffs.

[Joe Green]

In this best years, Williams averaged 20-10 or so.  I do not see Marcus getting to that level.  I just don't.

Actually, my "projection" was he reaches 15/10 since his outside shooting will limit his points.

However, if he does than while collecting 5 rebs and 2 steals he will be an elite all around PG.

Given his size and strength, young age and progress so far - why do you find it hard to believe he can do that?

[PickNRoll]

Williams is a better jump shooter, better creator.  Smart is a better defender.

The thing that jumped out the most about your post is Smart averaging 10 FT's per game in college.  Wow, I'd like to see more of that.

[droopdog7]

In this best years, Williams averaged 20-10 or so.  I do not see Marcus getting to that level.  I just don't.

Actually, my "projection" was he reaches 15/10 since his outside shooting will limit his points.

However, if he does than while collecting 5 rebs and 2 steals he will be an elite all around PG.

Given his size and strength, young age and progress so far - why do you find it hard to believe he can do that?

Okay.  I think he can get to about 15 ppg.  But really, only the very best distributors get to/approach 10 assists per game.  I certainly to do not see Smart anywhere near that class of PG's and would be very very surprised if he ever once average 10 assists per game. 

I see Smart's as a consist 13-15 ppg and 6-8 apg guard, assuming he can he can hold down a starting job.

[colincb]

I don't see this as a good comparison.  DWill was/is a notoriously poor defender and that's Smart's calling card. DWill was a very good playmaker too and I haven't seen that from Smart.
Until I see Smart healthy, I'd leave any shooting comaprison alone.  His offensive game in college was going to the basket and racking up a lot of FTs per game. In the NBA he's been a perimeter threat (and he's improved dramatically in that regard).

10 APG is extremely unlikely, BTW. 2 guys have averaged that in the NBA.

Lastly, way too small a sample size statistically and by the eye test, it doesn't work for me either.

[banty19]

I was actually thinking of this comparison a few days ago, too. Both are physical guards that can get points close to the basket due more to their size/strength than their quickness/agility. And if Smart keeps making 3-pointers, I think it's even more valid.

Defensively, they don't really compare much. And DWill was smoother than Smart while Smart has more of a gritty Tony Allen kinda style. But I don't think this comp is far offbase.

By the way, here's a box score comparison for Smart so far: http://nbacompare.com/players-like/4225/marcus-smart

It's not a perfect tool for Smart since Smart only has a small NBA sample and this is his rookie year, so he should be better than all of the comparisons listed. But the comparisons aren't exactly flattering.

Shumpert is a nice 3 and D player, but not a Top-6 caliber talent. And a lot of the other comparisons are medicore/poor players.

And to compare the tool, Andrew Wiggins in his rookie year already compares to Jeff Green, Gordon Hayward, and Jason Richardson: http://nbacompare.com/players-like/4227/andrew-wiggins

[JBcat]

I think it's too early in the game to really say, but based on his play so far out of the guys you mentioned I like the Billups comparison the best.

[Fafnir]

Deron was a good defensive guard when he was younger. Lost his D as he got older and his whole game broke down.

[droopdog7]

I was actually thinking of this comparison a few days ago, too. Both are physical guards that can get points close to the basket due more to their size/strength than their quickness/agility. And if Smart keeps making 3-pointers, I think it's even more valid.

Defensively, they don't really compare much. And DWill was smoother than Smart while Smart has more of a gritty Tony Allen kinda style. But I don't think this comp is far offbase.

By the way, here's a box score comparison for Smart so far: http://nbacompare.com/players-like/4225/marcus-smart

It's not a perfect tool for Smart since Smart only has a small NBA sample and this is his rookie year, so he should be better than all of the comparisons listed. But the comparisons aren't exactly flattering.

Shumpert is a nice 3 and D player, but not a Top-6 caliber talent. And a lot of the other comparisons are medicore/poor players.

And to compare the tool, Andrew Wiggins in his rookie year already compares to Jeff Green, Gordon Hayward, and Jason Richardson: http://nbacompare.com/players-like/4227/andrew-wiggins

TP for introducing me to a nice tool.  And obviously people won't like those comparisons but it certainly gives some perspective.  And it may not be far off.

[jpotter33]

Williams is a better jump shooter, better creator.  Smart is a better defender.

The thing that jumped out the most about your post is Smart averaging 10 FT's per game in college.  Wow, I'd like to see more of that.

I noticed that, too, which should show that his limited driving game in his rookie year is more of an abberation than a certainty. 3.5 steals is also pretty ridiculous, too.

[jonaslopes]

More like Tony Allen. Deal with it.