Lottery Stock Update

[celticsclay]

Since it seems more and more unlikely that this team is not going to be able to win a ton of games after the trades of Green, Wright and Rondo I am closely following the other seemingly lottery bound teams as their play really has about the same impact on lottery results as our own.
The Dregs:

76ers - They have been a bit more frisky the last few weeks and are up to 7 wins. However, they are also the most blatant tanker and their GM would shut down or trade any productive player if they are start to win many games.

Knicks - They were down 14-0 to start the game against the Bucks in London and never got back into it. The question isn't whether they will win more games than the celtics, but when they will next win a game at this point.

Timberwolves - Wiggins looks awesome, but they are still losing nearly every game and looking to trade off one of their productive NBA level players in Young. May get Pek and Martin back but still really locked in to bottom 3.

Throwing in the towel (and bad news for Celtics):

Lakers - They are continually competitive in games but are also accomplishing their goals of losing. With today's story that Kobe would accept being held out of games after already being on a 32 minute limit the tanking remains really strong. If you look at the guys they are playing when Kobe doesn't (Boozer, Lin, Wesley Johnson, Nick Young (playing horrible), Ronnie Price, Tarik Black, Jordan Hill) this team is a lot less talented than Celtics and with much less prospects.

Playing Good (and good news for Celtics)

Denver
Detroit
Orlando

All these teams are playing a lot better at the moment. Despite having the best record of the 3 Denver would seem to be the scariest tank candidate. For one, they play in the west where wins are harder. Second they could very well sell off a ton of veterans if they stay on outside of playoffs

Who Knows:
Charlotte: Jefferson hurt, maybe trading Stephenson. Not sure what they are trying to do.

Utah: Lots of talent, but maybe just too tough a schedule in the West. Could be "battling" the celtics for wins and losses all season

Brooklyn - If they trade Lopez  for Perk and Lamb they are definitely not trying to win this year. Deron is extremely gimpy and horrible when he plays. What a mess of an organization.

[CFAN38]

Since it seems more and more unlikely that this team is not going to be able to win a ton of games after the trades of Green, Wright and Rondo I am closely following the other seemingly lottery bound teams as their play really has about the same impact on lottery results as our own.
The Dregs:

76ers - They have been a bit more frisky the last few weeks and are up to 7 wins. However, they are also the most blatant tanker and their GM would shut down or trade any productive player if they are start to win many games.

Knicks - They were down 14-0 to start the game against the Bucks in London and never got back into it. The question isn't whether they will win more games than the celtics, but when they will next win a game at this point.

Timberwolves - Wiggins looks awesome, but they are still losing nearly every game and looking to trade off one of their productive nba level players in Young. May get Pek and Martin back but still really locked in to bottom 3.

Throwing in the towel (and bad news for celtics):

Lakers - They are continually competitive in games but are also accomplishing their goals of losing. With today's story that Kobe would accept being held out of games after already being on a 32 minute limit the tanking remains really strong. If you look at the guys they are playing when Kobe doesn't (Boozer, Lin, Wesley Johnson, Nick Young (playing horrible), Ronnie Price, Tarik Black, Jordan Hill) this team is a lot less talented than celtics and with much less prospects.

Playing Good (and good news for Celtics)
Denver
Detroit
Orlando

All these teams are playing a lot better at the moment. Despite having the best record of the 3 Denver would seem to be the scariest tank candidate. For one, they play in the west where wins are harder. Second they could very well sell off a ton of veterans if they stay on outside of playoffs

Who Knows:
Charlotte: Jefferson hurt, maybe trading Stephenson. Not sure what they are trying to do.

Utah: Lots of talent, but maybe just too tough a schedule in the West. Could be "battling" the celtics for wins and losses all season

Brooklyn - If they trade Lopez  for Perk and Lamb they are definitely not trying to win this year. Deron is extremely gimpy and horrible when he plays. What a mess of an organization.

Bottom teams will likely be Phili, NYK, Lakers, Min and the Cs. I agree with most of your team assessments with a few exceptions. I don't think the Nets are trying to tank with a Lopez trade. He is injury prone and under performing, the second part of the trade rumor is Thad Young coming to the Nets not a tank move. I also think the Bobcats want to be back in the playoffs and will move moves with that as the goal not tanking.

[Quetzalcoatl]

What's so scary about Brooklyn this year is that they could get ahead of us in the loss/wins column* and at the same time they have to pick swap with the Hawks, too.  Imagine if they sent Towns to match up with Hoford?  That is [expletive] scary.  On the plus side though, the Nets will struggle to make the playoffs for several years and won't be adding any lottery picks of their own.

/*the opposite of wins/losses

[celticsclay]

Since it seems more and more unlikely that this team is not going to be able to win a ton of games after the trades of Green, Wright and Rondo I am closely following the other seemingly lottery bound teams as their play really has about the same impact on lottery results as our own.
The Dregs:

76ers - They have been a bit more frisky the last few weeks and are up to 7 wins. However, they are also the most blatant tanker and their GM would shut down or trade any productive player if they are start to win many games.

Knicks - They were down 14-0 to start the game against the Bucks in London and never got back into it. The question isn't whether they will win more games than the celtics, but when they will next win a game at this point.

Timberwolves - Wiggins looks awesome, but they are still losing nearly every game and looking to trade off one of their productive nba level players in Young. May get Pek and Martin back but still really locked in to bottom 3.

Throwing in the towel (and bad news for celtics):

Lakers - They are continually competitive in games but are also accomplishing their goals of losing. With today's story that Kobe would accept being held out of games after already being on a 32 minute limit the tanking remains really strong. If you look at the guys they are playing when Kobe doesn't (Boozer, Lin, Wesley Johnson, Nick Young (playing horrible), Ronnie Price, Tarik Black, Jordan Hill) this team is a lot less talented than celtics and with much less prospects.

Playing Good (and good news for Celtics)
Denver
Detroit
Orlando

All these teams are playing a lot better at the moment. Despite having the best record of the 3 Denver would seem to be the scariest tank candidate. For one, they play in the west where wins are harder. Second they could very well sell off a ton of veterans if they stay on outside of playoffs

Who Knows:
Charlotte: Jefferson hurt, maybe trading Stephenson. Not sure what they are trying to do.

Utah: Lots of talent, but maybe just too tough a schedule in the West. Could be "battling" the celtics for wins and losses all season

Brooklyn - If they trade Lopez  for Perk and Lamb they are definitely not trying to win this year. Deron is extremely gimpy and horrible when he plays. What a mess of an organization.

Bottom teams will likely be Phili, NYK, Lakers, Min and the Cs. I agree with most of your team assessments with a few exceptions. I don't think the Nets are trying to tank with a Lopez trade. He is injury prone and under performing, the second part of the trade rumor is Thad Young coming to the Nets not a tank move. I also think the Bobcats want to be back in the playoffs and will move moves with that as the goal not tanking.

Brooklyn is a really complicated case because their ownership is looking to sell. In the past I have seen teams really strip down their long term contract liabilities to make their team more attractive for a sale. However, in those cases, the team also has had their future first round picks. However, the team is already sitting Williams with no timetable on a return and a Lopez trade appears pretty likely.

Lets say they get Thad young back there lineup would be this for the forseeable future:

PG: Jack, Darius Morris
SG: Bojan Bogdanovic, Markel Brown
SF: Joe Johnson, T Young, Corey Jefferson
PF: Garnett, Telotovic
Center: Plumlee, Jerome Jordan

That is an awful team and may not be able to win no matter what they want to do. Also can they please free Garnett around the trade deadline, this is just a brutal way for his career to end.

[slamtheking]

What's so scary about Brooklyn this year is that they could get ahead of us in the loss/wins column* and at the same time they have to pick swap with the Hawks, too.  Imagine if they sent Towns to match up with Hoford?  That is [expletive] scary.  On the plus side though, the Nets will struggle to make the playoffs for several years and won't be adding any lottery picks of their own.

/*the opposite of wins/losses

Never happen.  Nets are already ahead of us and have more than enough talent to stay there.

[slamtheking]

Lakers - They are continually competitive in games but are also accomplishing their goals of losing. With today's story that Kobe would accept being held out of games after already being on a 32 minute limit the tanking remains really strong. If you look at the guys they are playing when Kobe doesn't (Boozer, Lin, Wesley Johnson, Nick Young (playing horrible), Ronnie Price, Tarik Black, Jordan Hill) this team is a lot less talented than Celtics and with much less prospects.

Even without Kobe, the 5 top remaining Lakers would either be starting here or in the discussion for starting. 

They're just 1 win behind the C's AND they still have Kobe who would have to have a major change in character to not try to win any game he plays in.  I'll feel better once they make up that 1 win they're trailing us by but I truly believe they will pass us in the standing within the next 15 games.

[celticsclay]

Also related an interesting article on how much Nets miss Pierce and their current status
http://espn.go.com/blog/brooklyn-nets/post/_/id/22070/the-truth-hurts-nets-miss-pierce?ex_cid=espnapi_public

[celticsclay]

Lakers - They are continually competitive in games but are also accomplishing their goals of losing. With today's story that Kobe would accept being held out of games after already being on a 32 minute limit the tanking remains really strong. If you look at the guys they are playing when Kobe doesn't (Boozer, Lin, Wesley Johnson, Nick Young (playing horrible), Ronnie Price, Tarik Black, Jordan Hill) this team is a lot less talented than Celtics and with much less prospects.

Even without Kobe, the 5 top remaining Lakers would either be starting here or in the discussion for starting. 

They're just 1 win behind the C's AND they still have Kobe who would have to have a major change in character to not try to win any game he plays in.  I'll feel better once they make up that 1 win they're trailing us by but I truly believe they will pass us in the standing within the next 15 games.

I mean Kobe has said he will sit himself and about how much his character has changed

http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/lakers/post/_/id/40965/shut-him-down-if-asked-kobe-would-sit

Also I don't even know who you mean when you say the Lakers top 5 after Kobe are. I guess we can go with their starters?

Center: Jordan Hill. He would probably start at Center and I like his game. 1 guy off their team I wish we had.

Power Forward: Ed Davis starts, I don't think there would be a discussion of him starting over Sullinger. He is also worse than Bass. Boozer is the backup and at this point in his career is Bass with no defense.

Small Forward: Wesley Johnson this guy is garbage but Crowder is probably the same. I guess I would ask who cares on this one. 

Shooting Guard: Nick Young, possible but has actually been getting benched in laker land at the moment shooting 27% overall and 20% from 3 in January. (37% on year). Plays no defense and doesn't pass. Bradley is definitely a much more complete player as much as a lot of people hate him

Point Guard: Ronnie Price (there would be a well-deserved mutiny if he started over Smart)
 
So in my view one position they have a better starter and one where it is negligible difference.

[Boris Badenov]

It's not clear that sitting Kobe will make the Lakers much worse. His net plus/minus this year is -13.6. With him on the court the Lakers score 4 fewer points and give up 10 more points per 100 possessions.

[celticsclay]

It's not clear that sitting Kobe will make the Lakers much worse. His net plus/minus this year is -13.6. With him on the court the Lakers score 4 fewer points and give up 10 more points per 100 possessions.

Kobe is generally going against the other teams starters and best players which is going to negatively impact his +- compared to some of his shooting guard backups who not only have the luxury of playing against the second stringers, but also play a lot of garbage time where +- is pretty meaningless. If you watched Kobe dish out 17 assists last night, get 19 points on 14 shots and watched Nick Young come in and launch bricks and do nothing else, this argument becomes pretty hard to make.

[PickNRoll]

It's not clear that sitting Kobe will make the Lakers much worse. His net plus/minus this year is -13.6. With him on the court the Lakers score 4 fewer points and give up 10 more points per 100 possessions.

I think it's exceedingly clear that the Lakers are better without him.  The numbers back it conclusively and the eye test shows it as well.  It's been less true over the last month when he went into pure distributor mode, but still true. 

The Lakers have played best when Kobe doesn't play at all.

[hwangjini_1]

why does all this negative talk about the lakers make me smile? 

[celticsclay]

It's not clear that sitting Kobe will make the Lakers much worse. His net plus/minus this year is -13.6. With him on the court the Lakers score 4 fewer points and give up 10 more points per 100 possessions.

I think it's exceedingly clear that the Lakers are better without him.  The numbers back it conclusively and the eye test shows it as well.  It's been less true over the last month when he went into pure distributor mode, but still true. 

The Lakers have played best when Kobe doesn't play at all.

1) It is a really small sample size
2)  during those games Nick Young was on fire (46% on threes in entire month of December, 20% in January).
3) Kobe was being over played and has adjusted his game for his limited minutes

You guys are throwing crazy stuff out there when I am forced to defend Kobe cause I am NOT fan.

[PickNRoll]

It's not clear that sitting Kobe will make the Lakers much worse. His net plus/minus this year is -13.6. With him on the court the Lakers score 4 fewer points and give up 10 more points per 100 possessions.

I think it's exceedingly clear that the Lakers are better without him.  The numbers back it conclusively and the eye test shows it as well.  It's been less true over the last month when he went into pure distributor mode, but still true. 

The Lakers have played best when Kobe doesn't play at all.

1) It is a really small sample size
2)  during those games Nick Young was on fire (46% on threes in entire month of December, 20% in January).
3) Kobe was being over played and has adjusted his game for his limited minutes

You guys are throwing crazy stuff out there when I am forced to defend Kobe cause I am NOT fan.

Small sample?  I'm talking about the entire year.  Every minute  They've been better when he's on the bench and markedly better if he doesn't play at all.

When I looked a couple weeks ago, he had on/off court differentials that were similar to Steph Curry, but in the opposite direction.  That is really bad.

[Celts Fan 508]

Since it seems more and more unlikely that this team is not going to be able to win a ton of games after the trades of Green, Wright and Rondo I am closely following the other seemingly lottery bound teams as their play really has about the same impact on lottery results as our own.
The Dregs:

76ers - They have been a bit more frisky the last few weeks and are up to 7 wins. However, they are also the most blatant tanker and their GM would shut down or trade any productive player if they are start to win many games.

Knicks - They were down 14-0 to start the game against the Bucks in London and never got back into it. The question isn't whether they will win more games than the celtics, but when they will next win a game at this point.

Timberwolves - Wiggins looks awesome, but they are still losing nearly every game and looking to trade off one of their productive nba level players in Young. May get Pek and Martin back but still really locked in to bottom 3.

Throwing in the towel (and bad news for celtics):

Lakers - They are continually competitive in games but are also accomplishing their goals of losing. With today's story that Kobe would accept being held out of games after already being on a 32 minute limit the tanking remains really strong. If you look at the guys they are playing when Kobe doesn't (Boozer, Lin, Wesley Johnson, Nick Young (playing horrible), Ronnie Price, Tarik Black, Jordan Hill) this team is a lot less talented than celtics and with much less prospects.

Playing Good (and good news for Celtics)
Denver
Detroit
Orlando

All these teams are playing a lot better at the moment. Despite having the best record of the 3 Denver would seem to be the scariest tank candidate. For one, they play in the west where wins are harder. Second they could very well sell off a ton of veterans if they stay on outside of playoffs

Who Knows:
Charlotte: Jefferson hurt, maybe trading Stephenson. Not sure what they are trying to do.

Utah: Lots of talent, but maybe just too tough a schedule in the West. Could be "battling" the celtics for wins and losses all season

Brooklyn - If they trade Lopez  for Perk and Lamb they are definitely not trying to win this year. Deron is extremely gimpy and horrible when he plays. What a mess of an organization.

Bottom teams will likely be Phili, NYK, Lakers, Min and the Cs. I agree with most of your team assessments with a few exceptions. I don't think the Nets are trying to tank with a Lopez trade. He is injury prone and under performing, the second part of the trade rumor is Thad Young coming to the Nets not a tank move. I also think the Bobcats want to be back in the playoffs and will move moves with that as the goal not tanking.

I agree with the teams you have listed as the bottom but would add Utah to that list as well.