Why the Excitement Over Draft Picks?

[primetime]

I just want to say that I am in full support of Danny Ainge. He's doing the best he can given the situation - Cleveland swiping Kevin Love, dealing with Rondo's (and now Green's) discontent, and a mismatch of players, minutes, and assets.

That being said, take a look at the last 5 drafts:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NBA_draft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NBA_draft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NBA_draft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NBA_draft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_NBA_draft

That's a LOT of unfamiliar names in the past 5 years. Half of the 2nd round (see names in gray) never played a single minute of NBA basketball. Think about that. The majority of the draft picks we're acquiring are essentially worthless.

The first round is just as disheartening at times. Our own Evan Turner? #2 overall in 2010. A late first rounder will yield you a Jordan Crawford, MarShon Brooks, Fab Melo, etc. And Danny isn't a bad drafter! He's not the best, but he's certainly above average. I see people squawking about Austin Rivers being included in the Memphis trade, but the truth is, he was #10 overall in 2012. I (and many other C's fans) was excitedly hoping that Danny would trade up so Doc could coach his son. Now, 3 years later, he's chopped liver? Not true, it's just that we, as fans, overvalue draft picks because they are (literally) lottery tickets. Sometimes you hit, but most of the time you don't.

I'm about to quote Family Guy, and I apologize for the video quality:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R11UBWufmy0

"A boat's a boat, but a mystery box could be anything...it could even be a boat!"

The lottery picks are mystery boxes. Players like Rondo, Green, et al. are boats.

[Lucky17]

Sometimes you hit, but most of the time you don't.

Except sometimes you do.

The lottery picks are mystery boxes. Players like Rondo, Green, et al. are boats.

Boats that weren't taking the Celtics anywhere. Green, especially, was one whose outboard motor worked less than half the time.

[Chris22]

11 first round picks in the next 4 years.

Loads of cap space.

Smart and Young.

Lots to excited about.

[Neurotic Guy]

It is true that high excitement over picks that are likely to be mid-late firsts or seconds is unwise, but there are two factors that can lead to some optimism:

1. The volume of picks increases likelihood that Danny will hit on a few.   Even the prospect of stashing a few late-first or second round Euros leads to some long-term hope.

2. The unknown factor with first round picks often produces a present value that exceeds the actuarial (not sure if this word works here, but you know what I mean) value of the prospective pick slot. 

[Lucky17]

Given the fact that we're about to see salary cap levels rise substantially over the next couple of years, rookie-scale contracts become even more useful to teams looking to maximize cap room.

Rookie-scale contracts can also, if restricted free-agent rights are maintained, allow a team to keep a draftee for as many as eight or nine years.

[PAOBoston]

Overall, you're probably right about the draft being a crap shoot. But more picks makes it more likely that you'll hit on at least a couple of them and get good NBA players. They could also just use the picks in trades or to move up higher in the draft should they like somebody. Who knows? the draft is just one tool used to get better.

[primetime]

Good points all - I was just stirring the pot a little bit.

Rondo and Green had to go, and as one poster pointed out, they were boats not going anywhere. Totally agreed.

Make one wonder if Danny could do worse than simply hold onto these picks and keep throwing darts. If you have 3 picks, you might get 2 busts and an All-Star. And as the above history shows, even NBA GM's can't perfectly predict the best players on draft night.

[ViolentGhandi]

the excitment goes along with ppl thinking that everything old is bad and those draftpicks will instantly turn into upgrades compared to the lineup we started the season with or even compared to what we have now. I'm not sharing that optimistic view. We want to draft a big man - thats is a good thing to do - but young centers normally need 2+ years to adjust and/or develop into starter material. When they were able to dominate prior to the NBA they all of a sudden face opposition that is physicly stronger, matches size and also has years of experience. That goes for the other positions too but especially for big man. So unless Ainge drafts someone like the next LeBron we look forward into a extended period of player deveopment. I understand why Green, Bass and soon Suli look forward to beeing moved or become FA (no I don't think Suli gets resigned - his evergrowing lower back will become really a insue at some point - the law of physics dictate that he will get slower and the little leaping ability he has will become even tinier. At the current rate he should be able to avg. 5 steals per game within the next 2  years as his mass soon will start to bend spacetime enough to trap the ball in his orbit. Other players in the lineup will pass him soon. Zeller allready looks as good as Suli and Olys D is slowly getting better too and once he scores more consistant he will be the better player anyway. So with that expectation in mind you can imagine that it will become hard to attract star level free agents. Those guys will get max contracts anyways - especially with the growing cap space in the next couple of years. The chances of Ainge putting togather another big 3 without allready having 1 of them in the team are very slim. So all we can do is hope that we get very lucky in draft and/or a player realy has a break thru season. While I like Smart big time on D he still has to show that he can drive to the basket on a regular basis vs. starting PGs - if he can not he will be whished away by a lot of ppl on this board as well as having a hard time becoming a starter cause he will be played tight or he will be denyed the passing lanes. Also by not driving the opponents D doesnt have to collaps inward to help out which makes it even harder for him to find someone to pass to. It does not open up teammate eighter which makes it arder for them to score as well. I really hope he is still affected by his injuries or is still figuring out what he can do on the drive because he is playin so well on D (btw he couldnt stay in front any better than Rondo )

So not too much excitment here - just hope that the team will get better on the long run but there is no guaranty for that. The team is still entertaining most of the time even if they lose.

[GreenFaith1819]

I'm excited...

[guava_wrench]

Sometimes you hit, but most of the time you don't.

Except sometimes you do.

The lottery picks are mystery boxes. Players like Rondo, Green, et al. are boats.

Boats that weren't taking the Celtics anywhere. Green, especially, was one whose outboard motor worked less than half the time.

I think the OP might not understand that if you have 1 pick in a particular range, maybe you have a 1 in 8 change of getting a long term contributor. If you have 2 picks in that range, you now have a 2 in 8 chance, more or less.

In other words, for any pick, you can hit or miss. More chances means it is more likely you get a contributor.

One major advantage of draft picks is that if they perform, they are incredibly underpaid for a few years. If they don't perform, that longest commitment you have to them is 2 years. After that, team options determine if they stay.

Also, you can trade a pick to any team, no matter their cap situation or their positional needs. This is not the case with actual players.

I tend to agree with Cuban when he said a few years ago that picks are overrated in the league, but I also shared a link in another thread that discussed the expected value of first round picks to a team's bottom line. And when Cuban said they were overrated, he is referring to picks as a means of acquiring talent through the draft. Their overall value is determined by the market, not by any kind of analytic analysis, since trade partners decide their value based on what they will give up.

[guava_wrench]

I posted a link yesterday with an analysis that had Ainge at the lower half of GMs for draft success. It is not clear that he is better than average.

[Rosco917]

Most players of valuable in the NBA were draft picks at one time or another. Draft picks are future assets, or trade chips. There not important until you don't have any, then you better have real deep pockets.

Yes, draft picks are gambles, its all a gamble.

I'd much rather have many of them, than need them.

[saltlover]

I posted a link yesterday with an analysis that had Ainge at the lower half of GMs for draft success. It is not clear that he is better than average.

Even an average GM should be able to make a solid team with 14 picks in two years tho!

[greg683x]

Danny is doing an excellent job taking care of the variables that HE CAN CONTROL in the rebuilding process.  Which is acquiring picks and capspace.  Thats all he can do.

You need to be patient and you need to be lucky.  What Dannys doing increases our chances of getting lucky. 

The NBA draft is like the wheel of fortune, and hes making sure we get more spins than anyone else! 

[SHAQATTACK]

I dunno .....because there are no players and little else to be excited about

Sorta out of reasons to buy tickets right now .


Well.......I would have bought a ticket to laugh at Austin Rivers ......