Tank Stock Market

[celticsclay]

Rock Bottom: The teams in this group are all hanging around levels of epic futility and Boston has at least a 6 win advantage on all 3 of them. When you are talking about teams that may win 20 games the whole year this group seems pretty locked into the bottom 3.
 
Minnesota - Their gm has stated the year is dedicated to rebuilding

New York - to be realistic they have lost 20 out of 21 and Melo is gametime decision for every game. This is just a bad team.

Philly - No comments needed

Fighting for Fourth: Some of these teams are a few games behind celtics, a few are a few ahead. These teams require a little more analysis:

Lakers: Have a 3 loss lead on Celtics, but same amount of Wins. Continue to play pretty solid ball, including a last minute win last night. Ultimately the Lakers have just about the most incentive to tank of anyone on the list because their draft pick goes to another team if it is not in the top 5. Predicted finish 4th worst record

Utah: They have played a lot better both record wise and in terms of competitiveness for the last 3 weeks. If they were in the East they would blow by the celtics. The fact that they play in western conference may make wins harder to come by. They also just lost a starter averaging 14 points that may set them back. However, will probably finish ahead of celtics

Boston: Continue to win games against bad teams and play pretty competitive against better ones (more in the Chicago game than versus Dallas).

Detroit: Playing much better, albeit against better competition. I do expect them to pass us.

Orlando: They are a few wins of the celtics and have a pretty similar roster makeup to us post rondo trade. I predict we will be neck and neck with them all season.

Charlotte: The team is a extremely inconsistent losing 5 in a row after winning 4 in a row. Like Orlando I predict a dead heat with them if they do not make any roster moves.

Potential Surprise Tank "Contenders": These teams seem like they would finish above the Celtics, but could be surprise tankers for different reasons.

Pacers: The team is still middling along outside of the top 8 even after getting their players back. If they are outside the top 8 in a month, wouldn't be surprised to see West flipped to a contender and a late tank to gain assets for a reboot for next year with Paul George healthy.

Denver: Definitely have some talent, but also like the Pacers are continuing to middle along outside the top 10 in the West. Have a mismatched roster with some trade able pieces. May make sense for them to trade away Faried, Galinari or Affalo for assets if they have no shot at a playoff spot.

Nets: I don't know what this team is doing as they have no incentive to tank and I believe Atlanta has the right to swap their first round pick (which they will). However, they continue to play awful ball and have recently benched Deron Williams and Lopez. Garnett also has to be really miserable playing out his final season like this. Just a train wreck that warrants watching.

[celticsclay]

It is pretty interesting to me that half the threads on the forum discuss Boston getting a top 3 or 4 pick, but if we discuss other teams and their issues (Knicks current situation), how much the lakers have to lose by winning etc, its' crickets. Do we want to just bury our heads in the sand and yell top 3?

[SHAQATTACK]

I wish we could bring KG back to ....provide ADULT supervision and common sense to the Celtics team.......  He is worth more than Bass , Wright , Nelson ....just in the leader ship he brings .

GOOD.

OLD

LEADERSHIP

can't we trade some of the junk players for KG and put him back where he he belongs .?

[celticsclay]

screw this I'll make a rondo thread

[Neurotic Guy]

Grrr.... I was hoping this was some insider trading tips -- I've made every possible bad financial move over the years.  Hoping Cblog could save me.

I am getting very close to the same feeling I had most of last year, where losses always had a silver lining.  Eventually I'll probably be rootng for the losses (sorry to say).   Anyway, I hate rooting for Lakers wins, but that's what I am doing.  The world is turned upside down. 

Maybe this is the time to rethink my investments....

[celticsclay]

Grrr.... I was hoping this was some insider trading tips -- I've made every possible bad financial move over the years.  Hoping Cblog could save me.

I am getting very close to the same feeling I had most of last year, where losses always had a silver lining.  Eventually I'll probably be rootng for the losses (sorry to say).   Anyway, I hate rooting for Lakers wins, but that's what I am doing.  The world is turned upside down. 

Maybe this is the time to rethink my investments....

Sorry about the investments, wish I had some advice for both of us on that. With respect to rooting for losses, that was kind of part of my greater point. It seems like when thinking about tanking you have to really take an active look at what other teams are doing to determine how much you could theoretically gain.

Looking at the other teams and what they are doing (for example if the Knicks and Lakers shut down their stars) or if we start to see funny business with the pacers, we may have to reassess whether we can really finish in the bottom 4 instead of just repeating it as a mantra. We have 11 wins already and are decent size favorites tonight. The possibility of us finishing with less than 20 wins are pretty remote.

[Quetzalcoatl]

After a full season, I see us finishing with the 4th worst record.  I think it ends 76ers - Knicks - Timberwolves - Us.  The Knicks are tanking the most blatantly right now, so I think they sink a little bit behind the Timberwolves at the end of the day, but can't catch the badness of the 76ers unless Embiid comes back full strength with a couple of weeks left. 

I am more and more certain that he is going to be a force with his behavior during his injury.  He had the jokester party guy image, but he has consistently been with his team even though he can't play and he stopped the clowning on his Twitter feed once the season started.  His teammates genuinely seem to love him and if he comes back this season, I could see him winning say 3 out of the 14 or so games left, which would put them ahead of the Knicks.  Saric also won MVP for the Euroleague he is in for the month of November...those two are going to be a force some day.

It's weird that our team filled with mostly competent players and the team with Carmelo are two of the worst in the NBA, but that's the value of star power.

[Surferdad]

Doesn't matter. Celtics won't get a top 3 pick. The anti-Boston torch has been passed from Stern to Silver.

[celticsclay]

After a full season, I see us finishing with the 4th worst record.  I think it ends 76ers - Knicks - Timberwolves - Us.  The Knicks are tanking the most blatantly right now, so I think they sink a little bit behind the Timberwolves at the end of the day, but can't catch the badness of the 76ers unless Embiid comes back full strength with a couple of weeks left. 

I am more and more certain that he is going to be a force with his behavior during his injury.  He had the jokester party guy image, but he has consistently been with his team even though he can't play and he stopped the clowning on his Twitter feed once the season started.  His teammates genuinely seem to love him and if he comes back this season, I could see him winning say 3 out of the 14 or so games left, which would put them ahead of the Knicks.  Saric also won MVP for the Euroleague he is in for the month of November...those two are going to be a force some day.

It's weird that our team filled with mostly competent players and the team with Carmelo are two of the worst in the NBA, but that's the value of star power.

While this could certainly happen, your response doesn't really even make arguments for or against the other teams.

I really want to hear how a team in the Western conference, with the same record as us, that will LOSE this lottery pick if it is not in the top 5 will not attempt to tank. We can just say "blah blah the celtics suck and will lose" but why are these other teams not doing the same things?

[Neurotic Guy]

Grrr.... I was hoping this was some insider trading tips -- I've made every possible bad financial move over the years.  Hoping Cblog could save me.

I am getting very close to the same feeling I had most of last year, where losses always had a silver lining.  Eventually I'll probably be rootng for the losses (sorry to say).   Anyway, I hate rooting for Lakers wins, but that's what I am doing.  The world is turned upside down. 

Maybe this is the time to rethink my investments....

Sorry about the investments, wish I had some advice for both of us on that. With respect to rooting for losses, that was kind of part of my greater point. It seems like when thinking about tanking you have to really take an active look at what other teams are doing to determine how much you could theoretically gain.

Looking at the other teams and what they are doing (for example if the Knicks and Lakers shut down their stars) or if we start to see funny business with the pacers, we may have to reassess whether we can really finish in the bottom 4 instead of just repeating it as a mantra. We have 11 wins already and are decent size favorites tonight. The possibility of us finishing with less than 20 wins are pretty remote.

It's hard if not impossible to predict whether there will be a true tanker among the teams not NY, Philly or Minny.  One possibility is that Minnesota catches a little fire with Wiggins' improvement. 

I think Detroit, Orlando, Charlotte and Boston can smell the playoffs and I don't believe any of these teams will purposely tank (until trade deadline -- when everthing could change).

As far as the West goes, there is just no way that Kobe , if healthy, tanks.  Management would have to take Kobe out and I don't believe they will dare do that.  That said, the more distance between LA and the 8th seed, the more life and attitudes change.

Not sure about Indy or the Nuggets, but can't see a team with KG, JJ, DW, and Brooke Lopez going in the tank.  Trades will tell -- but till then, the C's probably will not catch Brooklyn (or the other way around). 

[Quetzalcoatl]

While this could certainly happen, your response doesn't really even make arguments for or against the other teams.

I really want to hear how a team in the Western conference, with the same record as us, that will LOSE this lottery pick if it is not in the top 5 will not attempt to tank. We can just say "blah blah the celtics suck and will lose" but why are these other teams not doing the same things?

I think of it it as a venn diagram like this:

The Lakers, Pistons, Pacers and Hornets all have both players and front offices that are trying to win games. 

The Celtics, Jazz and Nuggets have front offices that are trying to lose games, but players and/or coaches that are trying to win games.

The Knicks, 76ers and Timberwolves all have front offices that are trying to lose games and players that are not worried if they win or lose.

So I see the three teams in the last group as the most likely teams to be in the bottom 3, since nobody has any incentive to win games this year.  The front office won't add anybody good, the coaches just care about developing talent and the players won't be blamed for losses, since nobody expects them to win. 

We're in the middle group, so our GM is actively doing things without regard to if we win games this year and we just lost our star player.  Our players and coach however would definitely like to win, but we have a logjam at a bunch of positions with solid yet average players.  They'll beat the bad teams, but night to night we're not going to do so hot.  The Nuggets and Jazz are in the same boat, but even though they're in a harder conference, they have better overall teams.  I don't see either of their GMs swinging for the fences in a trade this season, though.

The first group is a delusional bunch that cares more about pride than actually being good in the long term.  While the Eastern Conference teams could all conceivably make the playoffs at least, the Lakers have 0 chance at making the postseason.  I don't get what's going on with that team other than that Kobe is an ego maniac and Lil' Buss has no business running a team.

[Timdawgg]

While this could certainly happen, your response doesn't really even make arguments for or against the other teams.

I really want to hear how a team in the Western conference, with the same record as us, that will LOSE this lottery pick if it is not in the top 5 will not attempt to tank. We can just say "blah blah the celtics suck and will lose" but why are these other teams not doing the same things?

I think of it it as a venn diagram like this:

The Lakers, Pistons, Pacers and Hornets all have both players and front offices that are trying to win games. 

The Celtics, Jazz and Nuggets have front offices that are trying to lose games, but players and/or coaches that are trying to win games.

The Knicks, 76ers and Timberwolves all have front offices that are trying to lose games and players that are not worried if they win or lose.

So I see the three teams in the last group as the most likely teams to be in the bottom 3, since nobody has any incentive to win games this year.  The front office won't add anybody good, the coaches just care about developing talent and the players won't be blamed for losses, since nobody expects them to win. 

We're in the middle group, so our GM is actively doing things without regard to if we win games this year and we just lost our star player.  Our players and coach however would definitely like to win, but we have a logjam at a bunch of positions with solid yet average players.  They'll beat the bad teams, but night to night we're not going to do so hot.  The Nuggets and Jazz are in the same boat, but even though they're in a harder conference, they have better overall teams.  I don't see either of their GMs swinging for the fences in a trade this season, though.

The first group is a delusional bunch that cares more about pride than actually being good in the long term.  While the Eastern Conference teams could all conceivably make the playoffs at least, the Lakers have 0 chance at making the postseason.  I don't get what's going on with that team other than that Kobe is an ego maniac and Lil' Buss has no business running a team.

Nice Post...TP!

[celticsclay]

While this could certainly happen, your response doesn't really even make arguments for or against the other teams.

I really want to hear how a team in the Western conference, with the same record as us, that will LOSE this lottery pick if it is not in the top 5 will not attempt to tank. We can just say "blah blah the celtics suck and will lose" but why are these other teams not doing the same things?

I think of it it as a venn diagram like this:

The Lakers, Pistons, Pacers and Hornets all have both players and front offices that are trying to win games. 

The Celtics, Jazz and Nuggets have front offices that are trying to lose games, but players and/or coaches that are trying to win games.

The Knicks, 76ers and Timberwolves all have front offices that are trying to lose games and players that are not worried if they win or lose.

So I see the three teams in the last group as the most likely teams to be in the bottom 3, since nobody has any incentive to win games this year.  The front office won't add anybody good, the coaches just care about developing talent and the players won't be blamed for losses, since nobody expects them to win. 

We're in the middle group, so our GM is actively doing things without regard to if we win games this year and we just lost our star player.  Our players and coach however would definitely like to win, but we have a logjam at a bunch of positions with solid yet average players.  They'll beat the bad teams, but night to night we're not going to do so hot.  The Nuggets and Jazz are in the same boat, but even though they're in a harder conference, they have better overall teams.  I don't see either of their GMs swinging for the fences in a trade this season, though.

The first group is a delusional bunch that cares more about pride than actually being good in the long term.  While the Eastern Conference teams could all conceivably make the playoffs at least, the Lakers have 0 chance at making the postseason.  I don't get what's going on with that team other than that Kobe is an ego maniac and Lil' Buss has no business running a team.

First off, Tommy Point for putting together the response and reasoning. Secondly, I think this has a lot of good points but am not sure how we know all the teams in the first area of the ven diagram have front offices that are trying to win. I think the Lakers and Pacers both have a lot of incentive to lose this year. The lakers because as mentioned, would lose a lottery pick if they are not quite bad enough. The pacers because they have the chance to follow the Spurs injured Robinson model.

If the Pacers are still in 10th in the conference in a month, have received word that George definitely can't play this year, doesn't it make a ton of sense for them to trade off the aincent David West to a playoff contender for a late first round, add their own lottery pick and reboot with George, Hibbert, Hill and whatever assets they can get through free agency and their two first rounders?

[Smokeeye123]

While this could certainly happen, your response doesn't really even make arguments for or against the other teams.

I really want to hear how a team in the Western conference, with the same record as us, that will LOSE this lottery pick if it is not in the top 5 will not attempt to tank. We can just say "blah blah the celtics suck and will lose" but why are these other teams not doing the same things?

I think of it it as a venn diagram like this:

The Lakers, Pistons, Pacers and Hornets all have both players and front offices that are trying to win games. 

The Celtics, Jazz and Nuggets have front offices that are trying to lose games, but players and/or coaches that are trying to win games.

The Knicks, 76ers and Timberwolves all have front offices that are trying to lose games and players that are not worried if they win or lose.

So I see the three teams in the last group as the most likely teams to be in the bottom 3, since nobody has any incentive to win games this year.  The front office won't add anybody good, the coaches just care about developing talent and the players won't be blamed for losses, since nobody expects them to win. 

We're in the middle group, so our GM is actively doing things without regard to if we win games this year and we just lost our star player.  Our players and coach however would definitely like to win, but we have a logjam at a bunch of positions with solid yet average players.  They'll beat the bad teams, but night to night we're not going to do so hot.  The Nuggets and Jazz are in the same boat, but even though they're in a harder conference, they have better overall teams.  I don't see either of their GMs swinging for the fences in a trade this season, though.

The first group is a delusional bunch that cares more about pride than actually being good in the long term.  While the Eastern Conference teams could all conceivably make the playoffs at least, the Lakers have 0 chance at making the postseason.  I don't get what's going on with that team other than that Kobe is an ego maniac and Lil' Buss has no business running a team.

Great post. but I strongly disagree that the Lakers front office trying to win games...They would be tanking it up hardcore if it wasnt for Kobe being the elephant in the room.

Ainge should trade Bass and Green asap to assure we get another top 5 pick.

[Quetzalcoatl]

First off, Tommy Point for putting together the response and reasoning. Secondly, I think this has a lot of good points but am not sure how we know all the teams in the first area of the ven diagram have front offices that are trying to win. I think the Lakers and Pacers both have a lot of incentive to lose this year. The lakers because as mentioned, would lose a lottery pick if they are not quite bad enough. The pacers because they have the chance to follow the Spurs injured Robinson model.

If the Pacers are still in 10th in the conference in a month, have received word that George definitely can't play this year, doesn't it make a ton of sense for them to trade off the aincent David West to a playoff contender for a late first round, add their own lottery pick and reboot with George, Hibbert, Hill and whatever assets they can get through free agency and their two first rounders?

Great post. but I strongly disagree that the Lakers front office trying to win games...They would be tanking it up hardcore if it wasnt for Kobe being the elephant in the room.

Ainge should trade Bass and Green asap to assure we get another top 5 pick.

TPs all around, this stuff is fun to talk about so anything I can do to encourage it!

Anyways, I agree that the Lakers don't have any incentive to win, but they also added Boozer and paid Kobe, plus are allowing Kobe to go bananas every game.  Granted, letting Kobe shoot as much as he is is probably hurting them, but they're going balls out every game.

Indy is 5-5 in their last few games and I think they are hopeful about George and the East overall.  They will have to win games in the meantime if they want to sniff the playoffs, so even if it's not much, I think it will be more than what we get.  I have to sort of agree with them, because I think if George can somehow get ready for the playoffs, they can absolutely hang with the Hawks.  The Hawks are great, but George is a force of nature when he's on.  Plus, he is only bad for half a season at a time, so he should be good by default

I think Detroit wants to win just to prove a point and I think Charlotte will be competitive because they're owned by MJ.  While some of these teams may pump the breaks around mid season, every win is huge this year.

The one argument I can see against me just looking at the standings on ESPN is that we're averaging 103.3 Points For and 104.4 Points Against.  That is a narrow window, although I think we will start really falling apart soon from the Rondo trade.  Maybe not so much because of how Rondo was playing, but because of the demoralizing effect it seemed to have on Green, Bass and CBS.  They looked pretty dejected the last couple of games, but maybe they'll do ok?