Avery Bradley has a HORRIBLE contract - what was Ainge thinking?

[JSD]

Bradley's is like Jeff Green's contract.  When Green signed his, this whole board flipped out.  Now you don't hear a peep about Green being overpaid.

It's better to lock these guys in now for a multiple years then to try and bring in a replacement Free Agent, who you know more times than not you are definitely overpaying for.

The value of Jeff Green's contract has gone up each year as the length has gone down, making it easier to trade. That is what has silenced the critics more than anything else.

We as Boston Celtic fans, and maybe NBA fans in general, are obsessed with the idea of acquiring a superstar player. Young assets, draft picks, expiring contracts  and cap space is what puts teams in position to get such a player, and not players like Jeff Green or Avery Bradley and their middle of the road talents or long-term mid range contracts.

[Celtics4ever]

just because the field isn't good doesn't mean he's worth this contract.

Right now, the problem is he is not that good.   Good one game, down the next.

[greece66]

A lot of people are trying to justify Avery's contract of 8 million per year for 4 years by saying that the salary cap is increasing...  So I've tried to find a way to justify such a contract by looking at every method available of measuring a players effectiveness on the court.

I understand that Avery Bradley was voted onto the NBA's All-Defensive second team in 2012-13.  I also understand that he is scoring 14 points per game.  So the first argument would be that we have a lockdown defender who can do a fair job scoring the ball.

Using that argument I would say the contract is justifiable.

However EVERY metric that measures a players overall effectiveness while on the floor SCREAMS that he isn't just an average shooting guard in the league, but a BELOW average shooting guard in the league.

If you prefer:

John Hollinger's PER
Avery has a per of 11.3 at the moment.  I believe the highest his per has every been his entire career is 13.  An average nba player has a per of 15.  Stacking his 11.3 per against only the other shooting guards in the league, and then only those shooting guards who average at least 25 mins per game - he is ranked 39th:  http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?sort=&q=usage&league=NBA&year=2015&per=pergame&min=25&pos=SG&qual=all

WS/40
He is ranked 41st among other shooting guards who play at least 25 mins per game.

John Hollinger's recent metric VA
VA: Value Added - the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce.
Avery's VA is 1.5 - over an entire season.  Out of all 334 players in the entire league this year, he is ranked 240th!  So it's saying he's in the worst 28% of all the players in the league in this category. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/VORP/page/5

Hollinger's other metric EWA
This metric gives the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' would produce.
 Avery's EWA is only 0.1.  He is tied for 227th out of 334.  Meaning he is in the lowest 32% of the league.

Wages of Wins/ Boxscore Geeks
These guys have many different methods of measuring a player effectiveness.   

I like ADJP48.  All you need to know is that after everything is adjusted the value for an average nba player, in comparison to the rest of the players of his position is 0.100)  Avery's is .041. so take the average nba shooting guard from this season - just an average one not a good one or great one, and decrease his effectiveness by 59% and you have avery.

If you don't like that metric, pick and choose any one you want, and Avery will be far down the bottom:  http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/players?direction=asc&minimum=true&positions%5B%5D=SG&sort=per48_position_adj_prod

According to ESPN Avery is the 87th highest paid player in the NBA this season. That puts him in the top 22% of all player earnings in the league.  http://espn.go.com/nba/salaries/_/page/3

If the NBA's new minimum contract went up from $507,336 and then after the salary cap rises majorly in the coming seasons the minimum contract went to at least 3 million dollars for any player to just and warm the bench, I could look at all of the data and somehow justify Avery's contract.

I could list all the shooting guards (who aren't on their rookie contracts) who have been as effective overall as Avery has this season, and show you what they're all getting paid, but it would hurt.

Someone's going to say that Avery has potential, but look in the metrics of his past seasons - even the best of them isn't a big improvement from where he is right now - and he's 24 years old. NBA players on average peak at 25.  He's basically at his peak.

I used to be a major, MAJOR Avery Bradley fan.  I want to like this contract.  If anyone can please explain how someone who, by EVERY metric available, is said to be not a very effective NBA player can be paid basically 8 million dollars a year for the next 4 years, and have it be a FAIR and REASONABLE contract, I would love it.

Did Danny Ainge get robbed? Please tell me it wasn't that bad...

IT WASN'T THAT BAD

[JSD]

Bradley's is like Jeff Green's contract.  When Green signed his, this whole board flipped out.  Now you don't hear a peep about Green being overpaid.

It's better to lock these guys in now for a multiple years then to try and bring in a replacement Free Agent, who you know more times than not you are definitely overpaying for.

The value of Jeff Green's contract has gone up each year as the length has gone down, making it easier to trade. That is what has silenced the critics more than anything else.

We as Boston Celtic fans, and maybe NBA fans in general, are obsessed with the idea of acquiring a superstar player. Young assets, draft picks, expiring contracts  and cap space is what puts teams in position to get such a player, and not players like Jeff Green or Avery Bradley and their middle of the road talents or long-term mid range contracts.

Also, there is a value in players who have a good work ethic and bring a positive contribution to the culture of the organization. There are a lot of things going on behind-the-scenes that Danny Ainge is considering when dishing out these contracts. Both players seem to have a positive off the court presence and work hard at practice day in and day out. It's important for a young team, with players getting assimilated to the league, to see this type of professionalism. That adds value.

[Celtics18]

Avery's probably slightly overpaid, relatively speaking, but it's not that bad.  He's the 98th highest paid player in the league, and he's surely not in the top 100 among NBA players, but he's probably close to being in the top 150. 

As someone above mentioned, he's a good role player, a lunchpail and hard hat type glue guy--the kind of player every team loves to have.  Not a star, but a competitive role player with a defined role.

All in all, I'm not going to quibble over the fact that he might be 1 to 2 million dollars overpaid.  I like Avery and I'm happy with his contract. 

[Chief Macho]

I think his deal will be more sensible going forward once some of the other deals come off the books. It will look slotted right in the team hierarchy,  if you know what I mean.    He got too much, but that's what happen's if you want to keep a player.

[SHAQATTACK]

If he could make a layup or pass the ball  I'd feel better.   He just sucks at several fundamental aspects of being a guard.

Or ....I could live with the contract easier

If


He still played the awesome defense we saw earlier in his career .

I kinda feel .....with Avery .....like ...I bought a defective product

I want my money back 

[Tr1boy]

AB hit some big shots yesterday. He scored what 15 pts?  A super quiet 15 pts.  Provided good defense.

He is what he is.  A super role player that is starting currently.  Won't complain, play hard.   I'm ok with the 8 million a year contract (yeah it should of been closer to 6 to 7 ) but oh well

[jyyzzoel]

are we next to channel our outrage and indignation towards thornton? he makes more than bradley and is not as good a player.

actually every single metric available as well as looking at overall statistics, for example their production per 40 mins pace adjusted shows that Thornton is actually a better player.  maybe in the future Avery can surpass him but at present that's just not the case.

[jyyzzoel]

Try reeling off 40 shooting guards that are better than him.

At the same age Dumars had a PER of 13.7 and a career PER of 15.3. Dumars, similarly, was a player that would score offensively, but wouldn't rack up assists and rebounds. On the defensive end, like Bradle, he would play great defense, but wouldn't gamble so his steals were always low.

Even if there were 40 SGs better than him, that would put him in the top tier of bench rotation SGs, without accounting for his relative youth. And, while his contract is a little high for such a, say, 7-8th man now, not only is the clock just starting to tick on future contracts eclipsing his, as noted, that usual dynamic is going to be juiced by an exceptional leap in new contract values.

Bradley has his limits as a player (handle, IQ, passing, size) but his contract is perfectly adequate--especially as a starting SG placeholder for young Mr. Young. 

And as noted here, none of Hollinger's stats really account for defense.

which is why i put the links to the numbers on boxscore geeks. their metrics do account for defense, and show that avery is still overall a less than average player and is in comparison to the rest of the league quite a bad nba player overall.

[The Oracle]

  When evaluating the signing of a player like Avery Bradley and many other players people often fall into a trap only looking at his stats and not the bigger overall picture!  The seeming overpay and rush to sign him probably had alot more to do with Rondo than anything else!  If you are the celtics and you want to trade Rondo this year you must have Avery to defend point guards as not to expose Rondo's poor defense!  If you want to keep Rondo then you must have a 2 guard capable of defending point guards!  These types of players don't grow on trees!  You absolutely could not come into this year with Thornton or the like as your shooting guard and force Rondo to solely guard point guards!  Rondo is no longer the defensive player he once was, his DFG% was something like 55% last year!  Either way I see them seeing Avery as a must signing!

[LarBrd33]

I've never seen Bradley as a viable starting SG.   He's probably best utilized as a back-up PG who can bring defensive energy off the bench.  Not a big fan of the contact either.

I don't think Bradley has a long-term future here.  I think Ainge signed him to be a trade asset in a larger package down the road.

[greece66]

nice research, but to what end? even if we take all your points as gospel, i am unsure of the ultimate point of it all. simply to get angry because bradley makes 8 million instead of 4 or 5 million?

bradley's contract is not a team killer and he does produce on offense and defense. is he overpaid? perhaps, though in 3 years lets revisit that thought. besides, who was it that the celtics could not sign because of this contract? what lost opportunity was there?

are we next to channel our outrage and indignation towards thornton? he makes more than bradley and is not as good a player. ooooohhh....the inhumanity!

then who is next in this hit parade of rage....wallace? green?

I also fail to see the point in this conversation. Let's say he really deserves no more than six. So what?

[BitterJim]

are we next to channel our outrage and indignation towards thornton? he makes more than bradley and is not as good a player.

actually every single metric available as well as looking at overall statistics, for example their production per 40 mins pace adjusted shows that Thornton is actually a better player.  maybe in the future Avery can surpass him but at present that's just not the case.

If you legitimately believe this, then I think we can end this thread right now

[jyyzzoel]

are we next to channel our outrage and indignation towards thornton? he makes more than bradley and is not as good a player.

actually every single metric available as well as looking at overall statistics, for example their production per 40 mins pace adjusted shows that Thornton is actually a better player.  maybe in the future Avery can surpass him but at present that's just not the case.

If you legitimately believe this, then I think we can end this thread right now

men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie.