Author Topic: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team  (Read 11732 times)

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Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #45 on: December 05, 2014, 08:08:38 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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How many minutes did we have KO guarding Monroe?

Sully had to guard Monroe, their best player, by far. And who did KO guard?

Sully and Bass did Monroe, KO didn't, or perhaps just for a minute.

So what do you expect someone to answer? You can only compare Sully's and KO's defense, if they guarding the same player.

KO spent a fair amount of time on Drummond, who is a tough physical matchup. But per usual he was also doing a lot of help and recovery. I thought he had some great defensive stretches in the game.

Exactly. 

Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #46 on: December 05, 2014, 09:08:16 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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To answer your questions:

Sully over KO
Rondo over Pressey

Olynyk is far closer to Sullinger than Pressey is to Rondo for what its worth. Both struggle to contain penetration and contest shots. Both are meh shot blockers, Olynyk is longer but doesn't really utilize it better. I have Sullinger as better due to his superior rebounding and post defense.

Pressey isn't long or strong enough to be a good defender. He's pesky and gets some nice steals, but then again so does Rondo. Rondo is superior at rebounding his position, contesting shots, and overall defense.

Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #47 on: December 05, 2014, 09:43:14 AM »

Offline BballTim

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How many minutes did we have KO guarding Monroe?

Sully had to guard Monroe, their best player, by far. And who did KO guard?

Sully and Bass did Monroe, KO didn't, or perhaps just for a minute.

So what do you expect someone to answer? You can only compare Sully's and KO's defense, if they guarding the same player.

KO spent a fair amount of time on Drummond, who is a tough physical matchup. But per usual he was also doing a lot of help and recovery. I thought he had some great defensive stretches in the game.

Exactly.

  Drummond has been having a terrible year offensively though.

Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #48 on: December 05, 2014, 10:04:29 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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How many minutes did we have KO guarding Monroe?

Sully had to guard Monroe, their best player, by far. And who did KO guard?

Sully and Bass did Monroe, KO didn't, or perhaps just for a minute.

So what do you expect someone to answer? You can only compare Sully's and KO's defense, if they guarding the same player.

KO spent a fair amount of time on Drummond, who is a tough physical matchup. But per usual he was also doing a lot of help and recovery. I thought he had some great defensive stretches in the game.

Exactly.

  Drummond has been having a terrible year offensively though.

Isn't he always?
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Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #49 on: December 05, 2014, 10:16:49 AM »

Offline Spilling Green Dye

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I'm not a fan of Sullinger's defense, but I think Kelly Olynyk's is even worse.  His lack of foot speed and help defense is staggeringly bad. 

Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #50 on: December 05, 2014, 10:17:01 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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KO, Turner and Thornton are all terrible. Sully and Rondo aren't great, but they are way better than the first three

way better?? Rondo is one of the worse defenders on the team. Especially man to man.

Sully is a smart defender but saying he is way better than KO is a stretch. KO tries and with more strength won't be bullied as easily. 

when was the last time you seen Sully even block a shot before?   he can't even really alter shots from going in

It's amazing how easily can one assess players to their liking when the determining factor of such an assessment is what one sees with a biased eye.

Exactly.

"In my fantasy universe where KO is stronger, he is a better defender."

"In my fantasy universe where Sully doesn't actually block more shots than Olynyk, Sully never blocks a shot."


Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #51 on: December 05, 2014, 10:25:03 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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KO, Turner and Thornton are all terrible. Sully and Rondo aren't great, but they are way better than the first three

way better?? Rondo is one of the worse defenders on the team. Especially man to man.

Sully is a smart defender but saying he is way better than KO is a stretch. KO tries and with more strength won't be bullied as easily. 

when was the last time you seen Sully even block a shot before?   he can't even really alter shots from going in

It's amazing how easily can one assess players to their liking when the determining factor of such an assessment is what one sees with a biased eye.

Exactly.

"In my fantasy universe where KO is stronger, he is a better defender."

"In my fantasy universe where Sully doesn't actually block more shots than Olynyk, Sully never blocks a shot."

Why are you  sidestepping my question.

Why dont you rewatch the Piston game and get back to me.



 

Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #52 on: December 05, 2014, 10:32:26 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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KO, Turner and Thornton are all terrible. Sully and Rondo aren't great, but they are way better than the first three

way better?? Rondo is one of the worse defenders on the team. Especially man to man.

Sully is a smart defender but saying he is way better than KO is a stretch. KO tries and with more strength won't be bullied as easily. 

when was the last time you seen Sully even block a shot before?   he can't even really alter shots from going in

Sully is not a shot blocker but he is averaging .8 per game. Thats better then alot of starting NBA PFS. If you look at the ESPN stats page he is actually 17th among PF in BPG and that includes a few PF who really play center and some bench players like ed davis. So Sully is a better shot blocker then half of the starting PFs in the NBA..... weird

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Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #53 on: December 05, 2014, 10:33:35 AM »

Offline TheFlex

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KO, Turner and Thornton are all terrible. Sully and Rondo aren't great, but they are way better than the first three

way better?? Rondo is one of the worse defenders on the team. Especially man to man.

Sully is a smart defender but saying he is way better than KO is a stretch. KO tries and with more strength won't be bullied as easily. 

when was the last time you seen Sully even block a shot before?   he can't even really alter shots from going in

It's amazing how easily can one assess players to their liking when the determining factor of such an assessment is what one sees with a biased eye.

What are your answers for the questions i asked?

Sorry, I was posting when you were and didn't see your post above.

I don't think there's any question Rondo is a better defender than Pressey. If this wasn't true I have a hard time seeing us continually forcing Evan Turner to be the team's backup PG without Smart. There simply isn't any other explanation for Pressey's lack of playing time with Smart out. There's no reason for Stevens to be sitting him. He's a low-cost, young, undrafted PG that would fit in perfectly with Stevens' philosophy of showcasing and developing young, unproven talent, except Stevens clearly believes there's not much talent to be showcased.

I don't hate on Pressey as much as other posters do on this site. I think he's a perfectly capable facilitator and someone with the offensive savvy to be a backup PG on a pretty good team, actually, like a poor man's washed up Andre Miller (that isn't as bad as it sounds). But clearly he is not good enough defensively to see minutes or else we'd be seeing him more often on the court.

As for KO and Sully... the question is clearly a result of your preference for Olynyk. The answer is obviously Sully. If Sully's defense was worse than KO's he would have his minutes reduced, not the other way around. Here's some stats that back up CBS' thinking in benching Olynyk and putting more trust in Sully:

Per-48 mins. in 2014-15, opposing PFs post around 26/12 on Sully with a PER of 21.2 and an eFG% of around 52.5%. Opposing Cs post around 14/11.5 with a PER of 10.8 and an eFG% of about 47.5%.

Per-48 mins., opposing PFs post around 19/12 on Olynyk with a PER of around 13.5 and an eFG% of around .421%. Opposing Cs post around 22.5/13 with a PER of 20.5 and an eFG% of around 55.5%.

Keep in mind that Sully plays at least 10% of the team's total minutes at both positions (43% at PF and 18% at C), while Olynyk plays only about 5% of the team's total minutes at PF (and 47% at C). This is significant to note because it provides context for Olynyk's halfway decent defensive showing at PF.

It must also be noted that while Sully has a PER of about three units less than his opponents when playing PF, he has a PER of almost 16 units more than his opponents at center. At both positions, Olynyk's PER net differential is negative.

When Sullinger is off the court, opponents score about three points more per 48 minutes than when he is on the court. When Olynyk is off the court, opponents score about 2.5 points less per 48 minutes than when he is on the court.

When Sullinger is off the court, opponent eFG% increases about 1%. When Olynyk is off the court, opponent eFG% decreases about 1%.

And your point about shot-blocking doesn't seem to be affirmed by advanced stats. Per 48 mins. the Cs block about 4% of opponent field goals when Olynyk is on the floor. When off, they block about 5% of opponent field goals. Whether Sully is on or off the court, that number remains consistent at 4%.

And, although I don't think it's that meaningful, of the team's five most used five-man rotations, the one with the highest defensive rating includes Sullinger at C, Green at PF, and Olynyk on the bench.

I asked you who was a better overall defender vs the Pistons a few days ago.

KO or Sully?
Pressey or Rondo?

To me all you did was sidestep the question. BC KO and Pressey were better. 

KO and Pressey, such horrible defenders arent they? KOs confidence was shot before the pistons game.   We have seen him able to play capable D against teams like Detroit, Bulls, Nets etc. He just needs to be consistent , have confidence in himself and not overhelp so much.

And all your mumbo jumbo about Rondo vs Pressey on defense is a joke for this season. Rondo has even admitted he needs to play better d. It starts with him. Yet so far he lets his man blow by him time after time again. Rarely backpeddling, raising the arms effort to try to contain the drive. Losing focus after pnrs etc. Do you see Pressey having these issues as often? Against detroit Pressey did such a good job, Jennings couldnt breathe

Who cares? I gave you a better answer: Sully is the better defender overall. And I provided reason for my answer, unlike you.


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Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #54 on: December 05, 2014, 10:33:39 AM »

Offline ctrey

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Sullinger does not block shots but by all accounts is a solid defender. He is just not the flashy "run/jump" athlete fans tend to fall for. He holds position really well, has great hands and moves his feet well. The team tends to give up fewer points when he is on the floor playing at power forward. Honestly I think the argument can be made he is our best all-around player right now.

Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #55 on: December 05, 2014, 10:44:01 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Why are you  sidestepping my question.

Why dont you rewatch the Piston game and get back to me.
 

Here I am, getting back to you. And to reality.

Arguing about your question will come down to subjective recollection. Now, you've already proven that your recollection is factually wrong, as you missed Sully's blocked shot. So that's not worth talking about.

How about this question, which is based on reality.

Let's start with a measure of team defense, which gets to your point about rotations:

For the year the Celtics are giving up 110 points per 100 possessions with Sully on the floor, and 113 without him. Opponents are shooting 51% with him on the court and 52% with him off the court, and the on/off rebounding shares are 49%/51%.

For Olynyk it's the other way around: 113 on, 110 off. Opponents are shooting 52% with him on the court and 51% with him off the court, and the on/off rebounding shares are 50%/49%.

In short, other teams score and rebound better with Olynyk on the court compared to Sully. Given that these guys share the court so often, the "net" differences are substantive and convincing evidence that the C's play better team defense when Sully's on the court compared to KO. (Sully's backup Bass is also an equal or better defender than Zeller - so you don't have that out.)

Now, in terms of individual play, Sully's man is shooting around 51% from the field, averaging 22/12 per 48 with a 18 PER.

Olynyk's man is shooting 54% averaging 22/14 per 48 with a 21 PER.

Those are facts. And here's the question: How can you reconcile them with your statement that Olynyk is a better defender?
« Last Edit: December 05, 2014, 10:53:22 AM by Boris Badenov »

Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #56 on: December 05, 2014, 11:05:02 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Truth be told, they both are bad on defense, but KO is slightly worse.  Those stats on Sully by Boris ( TP +1) show that he is bad defender, a really bad defender but KO is even worse.  This should not be a surprise given their combine scores in athletic ability.   Both did poorly in physical tests.
Now, the positive thing is both are nifty offensive players and Sully is a good but not elite rebounder.   Both of them are good passers.

When we play both of them at the same time, we are hosed.   They both stink to high heck on D.   We need a rim protector bad to cover for them and sorry, Zeller is a backup.

Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #57 on: December 05, 2014, 11:19:44 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Truth be told, they both are bad on defense, but KO is slightly worse.  Those stats on Sully by Boris ( TP +1) show that he is bad defender, a really bad defender but KO is even worse.  This should not be a surprise given their combine scores in athletic ability.   Both did poorly in physical tests.
Now, the positive thing is both are nifty offensive players and Sully is a good but not elite rebounder.   Both of them are good passers.

When we play both of them at the same time, we are hosed.   They both stink to high heck on D.   We need a rim protector bad to cover for them and sorry, Zeller is a backup.

I agree with almost everything in this post. TP to you too.

Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #58 on: December 05, 2014, 11:20:26 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Why are you  sidestepping my question.

Why dont you rewatch the Piston game and get back to me.
 

Here I am, getting back to you. And to reality.

Arguing about your question will come down to subjective recollection. Now, you've already proven that your recollection is factually wrong, as you missed Sully's blocked shot. So that's not worth talking about.

How about this question, which is based on reality.

Let's start with a measure of team defense, which gets to your point about rotations:

For the year the Celtics are giving up 110 points per 100 possessions with Sully on the floor, and 113 without him. Opponents are shooting 51% with him on the court and 52% with him off the court, and the on/off rebounding shares are 49%/51%.

For Olynyk it's the other way around: 113 on, 110 off. Opponents are shooting 52% with him on the court and 51% with him off the court, and the on/off rebounding shares are 50%/49%.

In short, other teams score and rebound better with Olynyk on the court compared to Sully. Given that these guys share the court so often, the "net" differences are substantive and convincing evidence that the C's play better team defense when Sully's on the court compared to KO. (Sully's backup Bass is also an equal or better defender than Zeller - so you don't have that out.)

Now, in terms of individual play, Sully's man is shooting around 51% from the field, averaging 22/12 per 48 with a 18 PER.

Olynyk's man is shooting 54% averaging 22/14 per 48 with a 21 PER.

Those are facts. And here's the question: How can you reconcile them with your statement that Olynyk is a better defender?

What a post.

The answer, of course, is the eye test.
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Re: Sullinger is the worst defender on the team
« Reply #59 on: December 05, 2014, 12:08:39 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Truth be told, they both are bad on defense, but KO is slightly worse.  Those stats on Sully by Boris ( TP +1) show that he is bad defender, a really bad defender but KO is even worse.  This should not be a surprise given their combine scores in athletic ability.   Both did poorly in physical tests.
Now, the positive thing is both are nifty offensive players and Sully is a good but not elite rebounder.   Both of them are good passers.

When we play both of them at the same time, we are hosed.   They both stink to high heck on D.   We need a rim protector bad to cover for them and sorry, Zeller is a backup.

I agree with your points.