Vegas Continuing to Show Boston Respect

[celticsclay]

While many on these forums continue to trot out the belief that the Celtics are one of the worst teams in the league, some of the smartest minds in analysis are starting to reflect a really different perception of the Celtics.

For example, tonight the Celtics are favored by 6 points over Oklahoma City. This comes after being favored over Indiana  by around 4 points and being small 2 point underdogs to Toronto at home.

Have you been as impressed by the Celtics play as the professional linesmakers? In my experience lines makers are a lot more tuned in and do much deeper analysis than any power polls done by the popular sports outlet (ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports). This makes a lot of sense because there is literally billions of dollars riding on the research they do. At the very least, I think this is as interesting a piece for discussion as any of the Hollinger or other rankings.

I am starting to really believe that, barring major injuries or trades, the Celtics will be fighting for the 7th or 8th seed in the east.

[BudweiserCeltic]

While many on these forums continue to trot out the belief that the Celtics are one of the worst teams in the league, some of the smartest minds in analysis are starting to reflect a really different perception of the Celtics.

For example, tonight the Celtics are favored by 6 points over Oklahoma City. This comes after being favored over Indiana  by around 4 points and being small 2 point underdogs to Toronto at home.

Have you been as impressed by the Celtics play as the professional linesmakers? In my experience lines makers are a lot more tuned in and do much deeper analysis than any power polls done by the popular sports outlet (ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports). This makes a lot of sense because there is literally billions of dollars riding on the research they do. At the very least, I think this is as interesting a piece for discussion as any of the Hollinger or other rankings.

I am starting to really believe that, barring major injuries or trades, the Celtics will be fighting for the 7th or 8th seed in the east.

Whatever your opinion on linemakers are, I wouldn't look too much into the fact that we were favored against the decimated teams of the Pacers and Thunder.

[Nerf DPOY]

I thought Vegas linesmakers arrived at their spread in order to maintain that money placed on both teams remains as even as possible.

[csfansince60s]

I like the premise of the thread a lot, but it probably should read "the betting public continuing to show Boston respect".

Vegas linesmakers make their spreads with the goal of having equal numbers of people ($$$) bet on both sides. That vig is their bread and butter.

In any event, the fact that bettors are respecting the Cs is very encouraging.

[PickNRoll]

That line sounds about right.  I watched OKC vs. Milwaukee and they looked TERRIBLE. 

Moreso than some years, it seems like the teams fit a pretty clear pecking order this year.  When I check the box scores in the morning, there are very few surprises.  I feel like I could pick em at 85%, if not for the spread.

We've been the victim of a tough schedule, but it's becoming clear where we rank.  We're not contenders, but we definitely aren't cellar-dwellars either.  I'd put us around #20.  Consistency will put us nearer to 15.

[csfansince60s]

I thought Vegas linesmakers arrived at their spread in order to maintain that money placed on both teams remains as even as possible.

+1...I type s---l---o---w---l---y

[puskas54_10]

At full strenght Indiana and OKC would blow out the celtics. With injuries there is no surprise in point of the odds.

[Evantime34]

Teams with a lot of fans (often referred to as "public teams") usually give up more points than they should because people bet on the teams they like, all things being equal.

[fairweatherfan]

I like the premise of the thread a lot, but it probably should read "the betting public continuing to show Boston respect".

Vegas linesmakers make their spreads with the goal of having equal numbers of people ($$$) bet on both sides. That vig is their bread and butter.

In any event, the fact that bettors are respecting the Cs is very encouraging.

Yup, the Lakers lines are particularly distorted by this effect, partly due to overall popularity and partly due to their proximity to Vegas.  It's a prediction of gamblers' behavior, not actual outcomes, though the two are often pretty similar.

[D.o.s.]

Vegas Continuing to Conspire to Take Money From Boston Fans*

[celticsclay]

I thought Vegas linesmakers arrived at their spread in order to maintain that money placed on both teams remains as even as possible.

+1...I type s---l---o---w---l---y

We can continue to get in a finite chicken or the egg argument. If it makes you feel cooler we can phrase it that Vegas arrives at these lines after careful evaluation of previous betting results and game outcomes to get the most equal amount of money on each side. However, this also means they are trying to predict how professionals gamblers (also sometimes referred to as sharps) will impact the line because they have much larger bankrolls and make much larger bets on individuals games where they feel they have an advantage.

A thing to keep in mind is that the average joe betting on a basketball game is betting a smaller amount $20 to $100 dollars being the most common amount for a regular season game. These average Joes, (or squares or fish, as they are commonly referred) represent a big % of the bets placed. In fact, betting sites will commonly try to mislead their members to the weaker side by putting out statistics like "80% of the bets have been on the celtics to cover the spread." However, if there are 300  $100 betters their impact on the line is offset by a single sharp placing a $30,000 wager.

These people placing the larger bets day in and day out are much smarter than you, I or John Hollinger. They use very sophisticated statistical models to predict games because their livelihood depends on. Unless someone has a huge income stream from other sources (see Floyd Merriweather), they will need to hit 55%-60% of their bets over the long term to swing a profit based on the amount of juice they are laying.  If these people, the sharps that have the ability to move lines with their large bankrolls, are showing increased confidence in the Celtics that holds a lot of value with me.

[csfansince60s]

I thought Vegas linesmakers arrived at their spread in order to maintain that money placed on both teams remains as even as possible.

+1...I type s---l---o---w---l---y

On a related note cfanssince60, thanks for your condescending response about typing slowly. I am sure you know all of this and tons more and have made a very comfortable living with your astute knowledge of Vegas and how lines work.  Or maybe, just maybe, you shouldn't waste either of our time in the future with with comments like that.

I was referring to MY response being VERY similar to the poster before mine, NerfDPOY, and making fun of myself for typing slowly.

Nothing by me was intended as condescending.

[indeedproceed]

I thought Vegas linesmakers arrived at their spread in order to maintain that money placed on both teams remains as even as possible.

+1...I type s---l---o---w---l---y

On a related note cfanssince60, thanks for your condescending response about typing slowly. I am sure you know all of this and tons more and have made a very comfortable living with your astute knowledge of Vegas and how lines work.  Or maybe, just maybe, you shouldn't waste either of our time in the future with with comments like that.

I was referring to MY response being VERY similar to the poster before mine, NerfDPOY, and making fun of myself for typing slowly.

Nothing by me was intended as condescending.

lol.....that's awesome.

[celticsclay]

I thought Vegas linesmakers arrived at their spread in order to maintain that money placed on both teams remains as even as possible.

+1...I type s---l---o---w---l---y

On a related note cfanssince60, thanks for your condescending response about typing slowly. I am sure you know all of this and tons more and have made a very comfortable living with your astute knowledge of Vegas and how lines work.  Or maybe, just maybe, you shouldn't waste either of our time in the future with with comments like that.

I was referring to MY response being VERY similar to the poster before mine, NerfDPOY, and making fun of myself for typing slowly.

Nothing by me was intended as condescending.

lol.....that's awesome.

I edited my response to remove that. I clearly misinterpreted what you were saying and for that I apologize. Not to excuse my response, but I have had (and seen) a lot of posters mock someone for just trying to share information and had a knee jerk response. However, again I apologize for that

[indeedproceed]

I thought Vegas linesmakers arrived at their spread in order to maintain that money placed on both teams remains as even as possible.

+1...I type s---l---o---w---l---y

On a related note cfanssince60, thanks for your condescending response about typing slowly. I am sure you know all of this and tons more and have made a very comfortable living with your astute knowledge of Vegas and how lines work.  Or maybe, just maybe, you shouldn't waste either of our time in the future with with comments like that.

I was referring to MY response being VERY similar to the poster before mine, NerfDPOY, and making fun of myself for typing slowly.

Nothing by me was intended as condescending.

lol.....that's awesome.

I edited my response to remove that. I clearly misinterpreted what you were saying and for that I apologize. Not to excuse my response, but I have had (and seen) a lot of posters mock someone for just trying to share information and had a knee jerk response. However, again I apologize for that

Everybody's overreacted/reacted improperly to something at some point. When reading the thread intiially, I saw the "I type slowly" comment and I thought, "Now what's that about?"

Now that I see the whole picture, its a little funny, but not so scandalous that anyone is going to tkae any scars home with them.