"Fast pace." Is this code?

[sofutomygaha]

I have not seen research, but there is a common-sense line of argument I've heard many times that goes like this:

The inferior team has a better chance of winning if they play slow, because the margin will be relatively low and they might pull ahead with a lucky run. The more possessions are played, however, the lower the variance on outcomes (i.e., the more regression to the mean), meaning the better team is more likely to win.


The possible exceptions to this is would be if you are working a strategic edge (like the D-league Vipers, I guess) or an edge in athleticism, depth, and/or conditioning (like last year's Suns).

Having just read the Sullinger diary at http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4714999/jared-sullinger-diary-talking-stevens-smart-turner-and-broncos?ex_cid=espnapi_public, I am concerned by the possibility that Stevens has a mandate not to tank, but to play fast and indirectly insure that the game will get out of our hands. I would say that our Celtics are most certainly NOT built for speed... I don't count a single player besides Rondo who is a major threat on a fast break except as a trailer.

If you watched the Raptors pre-season game, which heavily featured the starters and seemed like it was a game both sides were actually trying to win, you might see what I'm getting at. We kept things under control pretty nicely for most of that game, but we pushed the tempo like crazy in the second half and ran our way into a 20-point swing because the Raptors were much, much better at it than we were.

The 76ers are also planning to play as fast a tempo as possible this year, by the way.

[hwangjini_1]

interesting points. thanks for posting them.

one thought, brief and simplistic, is that CBS may know this and not care. that is, he may want to build a particular style of team play for 1-2 years from now and not care about w/l THIS year. let the players learn the system now, and (theoretically) it pays off in the long run.

sometimes, to me, it seems that last season and this season are intended to be a form of super-extended training camp. the real season begins in a few years. that is why w/l dont bother me much these days.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I have not seen research, but there is a common-sense line of argument I've heard many times that goes like this:

The inferior team has a better chance of winning if they play slow, because the margin will be relatively low and they might pull ahead with a lucky run. The more possessions are played, however, the lower the variance on outcomes (i.e., the more regression to the mean), meaning the better team is more likely to win.


The possible exceptions to this is would be if you are working a strategic edge (like the D-league Vipers, I guess) or an edge in athleticism, depth, and/or conditioning (like last year's Suns).

Having just read the Sullinger diary at http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4714999/jared-sullinger-diary-talking-stevens-smart-turner-and-broncos?ex_cid=espnapi_public, I am concerned by the possibility that Stevens has a mandate not to tank, but to play fast and indirectly insure that the game will get out of our hands. I would say that our Celtics are most certainly NOT built for speed... I don't count a single player besides Rondo who is a major threat on a fast break except as a trailer.

If you watched the Raptors pre-season game, which heavily featured the starters and seemed like it was a game both sides were actually trying to win, you might see what I'm getting at. We kept things under control pretty nicely for most of that game, but we pushed the tempo like crazy in the second half and ran our way into a 20-point swing because the Raptors were much, much better at it than we were.

The 76ers are also planning to play as fast a tempo as possible this year, by the way.

We were playing against the Raptors at a fast pace since the beginning of the game. The only real change from the 1st half to the 2nd half was that we were playing more of our end of bench guys while the Raptors kept playing their starters, particularly in the 4th.

[hpantazo]

I have heard every year for the past 15 plus years under various coaches that the celtics want to run this year and push the pace, it never happens, so I don't pay attention to it anymore.

[GreenWarrior]

I have heard every year for the past 15 plus years under various coaches that the celtics want to run this year and push the pace, it never happens, so I don't pay attention to it anymore.

so true.

most every team that says or thinks they want to play at a "fast pace". ultimately doesn't understand or commit to what it takes to play at a "fast pace".

playing fast break basketball imo is the easiest way to win. getting easy baskets is the easiest way to win.

tommy heinsohn's not lying when he would talk about green and pierce adding another 10 pts. to their game if guys would get them the ball on the wing early before the D sets up. but it's a mind-set. playing fast break basketball, it has to start in the off-season with the players and their conditioning and as a team mind-set in training camp. and it can't just be done in certain spots, it has to be done on every possession, even on made baskets.

teams that want to play this style have to be the best conditioned players in the league in order for it to work. but the other key is defense and defensive rebounding. defensive rebounding is the reward you get for having a good defensive possession and how most fast breaks occur.

the steve nash era Suns were the closest this generation got to the Celtics and the show time lakers but they weren't the defensive team that it took, it was a mind-set with them and they may have been well conditioned but their defense hurt them.

another thing I find with these teams that want to play this style that they do wrong is they think every possession starts with the PG, they'll get a rebound and look for the PG instead of just looking up-court to whoever is up there.

so playing "fast pace" has just become something teams say to get people excited(because people know this is actually difficult to defend, it's exciting, and it's the easiest way to win) but most never fully commit to what it actually takes.

[LooseCannon]

One way to push for a faster pace is to have a more aggressive defense that tries harder to force turnovers.

[Celtics4ever]

You have to get rebounds to fast break.

I still we are tanking to some degree this year, it is not blatant, it really was not last year either.    But given this roster, I think we will struggle at times.

[GreenWarrior]

One way to push for a faster pace is to have a more aggressive defense that tries harder to force turnovers.

that's the style the Suns played. it helps to get steals by playing passing lanes an overplaying players for a steal. but eventually you'll get burned. getting stops and forcing bad shots to get rebounds is how defense is played.

[D.o.s.]

I have not seen research, but there is a common-sense line of argument I've heard many times that goes like this:

The inferior team has a better chance of winning if they play slow, because the margin will be relatively low and they might pull ahead with a lucky run. The more possessions are played, however, the lower the variance on outcomes (i.e., the more regression to the mean), meaning the better team is more likely to win.


The possible exceptions to this is would be if you are working a strategic edge (like the D-league Vipers, I guess) or an edge in athleticism, depth, and/or conditioning (like last year's Suns).

Having just read the Sullinger diary at http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4714999/jared-sullinger-diary-talking-stevens-smart-turner-and-broncos?ex_cid=espnapi_public, I am concerned by the possibility that Stevens has a mandate not to tank, but to play fast and indirectly insure that the game will get out of our hands. I would say that our Celtics are most certainly NOT built for speed... I don't count a single player besides Rondo who is a major threat on a fast break except as a trailer.

If you watched the Raptors pre-season game, which heavily featured the starters and seemed like it was a game both sides were actually trying to win, you might see what I'm getting at. We kept things under control pretty nicely for most of that game, but we pushed the tempo like crazy in the second half and ran our way into a 20-point swing because the Raptors were much, much better at it than we were.

The 76ers are also planning to play as fast a tempo as possible this year, by the way.

For what it's worth, the Bobcats have played at a very slow pace for exactly this reason once they signed big al.

[Professor of Rondology]

I would say that our Celtics are most certainly NOT built for speed... I don't count a single player besides Rondo who is a major threat on a fast break except as a trailer.

Jeff Green and Avery Bradley are threats for sure.
Sullinger, with his defensive rebounding and outlet passing, is a guy I'd want out there.
And as for Olynyk, if he stays at the 5 he can beat his man down the court every time and is above average on the move with the ball in his hands.

If those 4 (plus Rondo) are the starters I don't see why we shouldn't push the pace.

[sofutomygaha]

I would say that our Celtics are most certainly NOT built for speed... I don't count a single player besides Rondo who is a major threat on a fast break except as a trailer.

Jeff Green and Avery Bradley are threats for sure.
Sullinger, with his defensive rebounding and outlet passing, is a guy I'd want out there.
And as for Olynyk, if he stays at the 5 he can beat his man down the court every time and is above average on the move with the ball in his hands.

If those 4 (plus Rondo) are the starters I don't see why we shouldn't push the pace.

I agree with you that Jeff Green is a good, athletic guy who is a threat on the fast break. I disagree with you, though, about Bradley and Olynyk. Olynyk is not very fast or well-conditioned and can not generally beat his man down the court. Bradley is a bad finisher who is notoriously blockable and prone to missing layups when he is coming down the court at full speed.

[greece66]

The 76ers are also planning to play as fast a tempo as possible this year, by the way.

[sigh] our team has tanking written all over it. But as you point out, like last year, there will be some fierce competition from the 76ers.

[Rondo9]

The 76ers are also planning to play as fast a tempo as possible this year, by the way.

[sigh] our team has tanking written all over it. But as you point out, like last year, there will be some fierce competition from the 76ers.

Really the celtics are a tanking team? Got any evidence to support that?

[Rondo9]

I would say that our Celtics are most certainly NOT built for speed... I don't count a single player besides Rondo who is a major threat on a fast break except as a trailer.

Jeff Green and Avery Bradley are threats for sure.
Sullinger, with his defensive rebounding and outlet passing, is a guy I'd want out there.
And as for Olynyk, if he stays at the 5 he can beat his man down the court every time and is above average on the move with the ball in his hands.

If those 4 (plus Rondo) are the starters I don't see why we shouldn't push the pace.

I agree with you that Jeff Green is a good, athletic guy who is a threat on the fast break. I disagree with you, though, about Bradley and Olynyk. Olynyk is not very fast or well-conditioned and can not generally beat his man down the court. Bradley is a bad finisher who is notoriously blockable and prone to missing layups when he is coming down the court at full speed.

Bradley hit plenty of layups on the break and olynyk is skilled enough to beat his man and is good decision maker

[Professor of Rondology]

I agree that Bradley is not a great finisher by any means, but he has elite speed and athleticism which serves him better in the fast break than it does in a half court situation.

Olynyk is not athletic or well conditioned, but for a center (which is what he is playing at the moment, for better or worse) he has good straight line speed and can handle the ball well while running down the floor.