At 28 is Rondo past his prime?

[D.o.s.]

I am enjoying how much variance there is in this thread. There's the "no," crowd, there's the "ohmahgerd these Rondo haters" crowd, there's the people arguing about numbers, and then there's this one, which might be the best response in the whole thread to the (non) question posed by the title:

He may never be better than he was before he hurt his knee, but that's not the same thing.

Has he peaked yet? I'd say probably, but I see no reason to think the downslope will be steep.

[Beat LA]

Yeah.  A few years ago when the Celtics were a pseudo-contender, the team was on the national radar and Rondo was putting up some juicy stats... it resulted in some all-star appearances.   His body didn't hold up, though.  He's an injury prone guard who can still probably help a good team when healthy, but his best days are well behind him.

That doesn't take anything away from what Rondo was able to do from 2009-12.  He was a key part of keeping this team relevant as the star talent faded and our window closed.  In terms of Celtic greats history will remember him on a par with Antoine Walker... maybe slightly higher, because he had an additional all-star appearance and he was a role player on a championship in Boston instead of Miami.

This is the most ridiculous post I believe that I've ever seen on Celticsblog.  On par with Toine, or slightly higher?  Wow   I don't even know where to begin on that one, and he's only been injured this one time, he isn't like Derrick Rose or Bynum for crying out loud.  Yeezus !

[Csfan1984]

Pre Rondo trade coming: Rondo is absolutely in his prime maybe not even at his peak. He has 10 good years left without a doubt.

Post Rondo trade coming: Rondo was done and at the wrong end of his prime. He has at most 4 good years left.

:-)

[blink]

The playoffs every year are loaded with players over age 28 -- and a huge share of the main rotation players on those teams are always over 28.   There were 98 players in these last playoffs who played at least 20 mpg (minimum 3 games) and of those 51 (52%) were 28 or older.

As you go deeper in the playoffs, it becomes the land of senior citizens.  Of the 46 of those players that made it to 9 games or more, 26 (56%) were 28+.    Of the 36 of those players that played 12 games or more, 22 (61%) were 28+.

Of the 13 such players who played in the finals, only 3 were under 28.

You see a similar age distribution in the playoffs every year.

Further, I would bet a significant share of those 98 playoff rotation players who are over age 28 have all had at least one significant injury that caused them to miss a significant stretch of games at some point in their career.

The NBA is an old-man's game.  It is dominated by veterans, not noobs.   

Heck, the real 'sweet spot', the "prime" if you will, seems to be the age range of 27-33, as 50 of the 98 playoff rotation players were in that range.

I find the idea that because Rondo is age 28 or because he's had one significant injury in his career that makes him "past his prime" kinda silly.   If anything, he should just be starting his "prime".

There is an obsession with youth that some on this blog have that is getting extreme.  I understand the "allure" of "potential".  Potential never misses a shot and never fails to grab every rebound.  But potential doesn't win in the NBA.  Experience does.

I love it when rational thought is backed up by real statistics.  Nice post.

If you want a whole book full of real statistics, you should glance at Stumbling on Wins.
http://books.google.com/books?id=yuboy7O3GPYC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Stumbling+On+Wins:+Two+Economists+Expose+the+Pitfalls+on+the+Road+to+Victory+in+Professional+Sports&hl=en&sa=X&ei=PH7qU_maFon5yQTQz4DoDw&ved=0CB4Q6AEwAA#v=snippet&q=30&f=false

That link should bring you to a really interesting note, that "only 20% of basketball players are in the 30-34 age group," one that would lead me to believe that if you're still in the NBA at/around age 30, it's because you were good enough at basketball to stick around that long-- not necessarily that you are heading towards your peak at that time.

Another thing to consider in regards to that point: if the average NBA career is just under five years long (source: http://www.ramfg.com/RAM-Financial-Group-Solutions-Professional-Athletes-Athletes-Services ) and the average age of an NBA draftee is right around 20-21, then there's no way the advanced age of those players in the NBA playoffs are doing so because they're older/more experienced rather than the fact that they're just more talented than their peers.

I would posit, then, that if you're in the postseason in a major way after 30, it's predominantly because you're still running on the vestiges of the talent that kept you into the league after your mid 20's -- and that by that point in your NBA career, you can choose to play wherever you want, and that's typically for teams that have realistic championship aspirations. For example: Miami, 2011-2014.

I think you are stretching to support ideas that go beyond what mmmmm was getting at.  He is just illustrating that a majority of the players who are deciding what team wins a title are in the age group that a few people here are saying are past their prime. 

I agree with his statement, and I personally believe Rondo has a great shot at returning to form.  Will he be as good as he was?  Who knows.  If he is 90% of what he was in 2010/2011/2012 it is still a huge plus for the team. 

But ultimately his recovery from his knee injury will be the real test though.  We won't know for many years if Rondo is past his prime right now, or if he can sustain a high level of play for a long career.  But to just blindly say any 28 year old is over the hill in the nba is just silly to me.

[blink]

Pre Rondo trade coming: Rondo is absolutely in his prime maybe not even at his peak. He has 10 good years left without a doubt.

Post Rondo trade coming: Rondo was done and at the wrong end of his prime. He has at most 4 good years left.

:-)

ok, that was funny. 

not like we are ever going to all agree on this anyways...oh well.  time to grab a beer and watch the celtics.

[blink]

also, does anyone think that Chris Paul is over the hill?  just wondering.

[LarBrd33]

Yeah.  A few years ago when the Celtics were a pseudo-contender, the team was on the national radar and Rondo was putting up some juicy stats... it resulted in some all-star appearances.   His body didn't hold up, though.  He's an injury prone guard who can still probably help a good team when healthy, but his best days are well behind him.

That doesn't take anything away from what Rondo was able to do from 2009-12.  He was a key part of keeping this team relevant as the star talent faded and our window closed.  In terms of Celtic greats history will remember him on a par with Antoine Walker... maybe slightly higher, because he had an additional all-star appearance and he was a role player on a championship in Boston instead of Miami.

This is the most ridiculous post I believe that I've ever seen on Celticsblog.  On par with Toine, or slightly higher?  Wow   I don't even know where to begin on that one, and he's only been injured this one time, he isn't like Derrick Rose or Bynum for crying out loud.  Yeezus !

Don't get me wrong... I'm not taking anything away from Rondo's exciting 3-4 run before a variety of injuries derailed his career.  He was borderline elite for a few years. He was arguably the 2nd best player on a solid 45+ win playoff participant when KG, Ray and Pierce were here.  I'm just saying that as we embark on 2015 and rondo is once again sidelined, his 2009 playoff prime seems like a distant thought. He's missed over 100 games over the past few years.  If he ever gets healthy, he can still be a key player in the right system and right team. Im just saying that for all intents and purposes, his best days are behind him.  Even post-prime JKidd contributed to a champion, though... And Grant Hill proved that injury prone players can find a second life as healthy role players...so I'm not suggesting this is the end for rondo.  He can still have productive seasons.  You could see him pop up in a few years coming off the bench as a pace-changer on a pelicans contender of something.

And the walker thing isn't a stretch.  Walker was a key part of some playoff teams, chased stats, made a few all-star teams, couldn't shoot worth lick, and was a role player on a champion.  Pretty similar to Rondos resume so far.

[Chris22]

also, does anyone think that Chris Paul is over the hill?  just wondering.

Chris Paul was the number one ranked point guard in the league last year.

Rondo was ranked 29th.

[blink]

also, does anyone think that Chris Paul is over the hill?  just wondering.

Chris Paul was the number one ranked point guard in the league last year.

Rondo was ranked 29th.

well those sure were interesting rankings you keep referring to.  But thanks, so CP isn't over the hill at 29, so a blanket statement that RR is past his prime at 28 might just be a tad bit premature.

[Kadin]

The Rondo haters just can't help themselves, I guess.

[Beat LA]

Yeah.  A few years ago when the Celtics were a pseudo-contender, the team was on the national radar and Rondo was putting up some juicy stats... it resulted in some all-star appearances.   His body didn't hold up, though.  He's an injury prone guard who can still probably help a good team when healthy, but his best days are well behind him.

That doesn't take anything away from what Rondo was able to do from 2009-12.  He was a key part of keeping this team relevant as the star talent faded and our window closed.  In terms of Celtic greats history will remember him on a par with Antoine Walker... maybe slightly higher, because he had an additional all-star appearance and he was a role player on a championship in Boston instead of Miami.

This is the most ridiculous post I believe that I've ever seen on Celticsblog.  On par with Toine, or slightly higher?  Wow   I don't even know where to begin on that one, and he's only been injured this one time, he isn't like Derrick Rose or Bynum for crying out loud.  Yeezus !

Don't get me wrong... I'm not taking anything away from Rondo's exciting 3-4 run before a variety of injuries derailed his career.  He was borderline elite for a few years. He was arguably the 2nd best player on a solid 45+ win playoff participant when KG, Ray and Pierce were here.  I'm just saying that as we embark on 2015 and rondo is once again sidelined, his 2009 playoff prime seems like a distant thought. He's missed over 100 games over the past few years.  If he ever gets healthy, he can still be a key player in the right system and right team. Im just saying that for all intents and purposes, his best days are behind him.  Even post-prime JKidd contributed to a champion, though... And Grant Hill proved that injury prone players can find a second life as healthy role players...so I'm not suggesting this is the end for rondo.  He can still have productive seasons.  You could see him pop up in a few years coming off the bench as a pace-changer on a pelicans contender of something.

And the walker thing isn't a stretch.  Walker was a key part of some playoff teams, chased stats, made a few all-star teams, couldn't shoot worth lick, and was a role player on a champion.  Pretty similar to Rondos resume so far.

Um, yeah it is.  Rondo has been the best player in a series against Derrick Rose and any series the Celtics played against a Lebron team after 2008.  We would not have beaten the Cavs in 2010 with Rondo, who saved us in game 4.  No one on that team could stop Rondo, not even Lebron, a trend which continued through to that 2012 series.  If Tom Thibodeau and Erik Spoelstra say that Rondo is the only player who they cannot, "scheme," for, then that's more than enough for me.  He dominated the Heat and practically averaged a triple double in 2012, iirc, and he's 6'1"   The guy is just so smart and is clearly the most unique player in the game, and he makes his teammates better with his amazing passing ability.  I'm sorry, but I've seen him do way too many incredible things on the court over the years to downgrade him in any way, and I also think that it's important to point out that he really was our best player from 2009 and onward.  Why else do think that Pierce said that, in the ecf against Orlando, when Rondo emerged as a top-flight point guard, they had to learn how to play off of Rondo as opposed to Rondo playing off of us?  It starts at the 2:28 mark of this clip -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S26HdTmrv_c

How many players can dominate a game without ever scoring a point?  I just think that we should appreciate what, and who, we have, before Danny ships him out of town .

 

[Moranis]

The playoffs every year are loaded with players over age 28 -- and a huge share of the main rotation players on those teams are always over 28.   There were 98 players in these last playoffs who played at least 20 mpg (minimum 3 games) and of those 51 (52%) were 28 or older.

As you go deeper in the playoffs, it becomes the land of senior citizens.  Of the 46 of those players that made it to 9 games or more, 26 (56%) were 28+.    Of the 36 of those players that played 12 games or more, 22 (61%) were 28+.

Of the 13 such players who played in the finals, only 3 were under 28.

You see a similar age distribution in the playoffs every year.

Further, I would bet a significant share of those 98 playoff rotation players who are over age 28 have all had at least one significant injury that caused them to miss a significant stretch of games at some point in their career.

The NBA is an old-man's game.  It is dominated by veterans, not noobs.   

Heck, the real 'sweet spot', the "prime" if you will, seems to be the age range of 27-33, as 50 of the 98 playoff rotation players were in that range.

I find the idea that because Rondo is age 28 or because he's had one significant injury in his career that makes him "past his prime" kinda silly.   If anything, he should just be starting his "prime".

There is an obsession with youth that some on this blog have that is getting extreme.  I understand the "allure" of "potential".  Potential never misses a shot and never fails to grab every rebound.  But potential doesn't win in the NBA.  Experience does.

All of that is of course true, but it doesn't mean the vast majority of those players aren't past their prime.  I mean would you rather have 25 year old Duncan or the one from last year. 

Of course it also has nothing to do with whether Rondo is past his prime.  For Rondo it isn't a question of age, it is a question of injuries and wear and tear on his body.  For the last 5 years he has played in a lesser percentage of games each and every year from the prior and he is once again hurt.

Rondo's age hasn't made him past his prime, his injuries have.  He can certainly still be an effective player, but he won't ever be the player he once was, and that makes him past his prime.

[Vox_Populi]

Jeremias Engelmann's APM aging curve

Aging curves differ per model, so there really isn't a definitive version. But APM is better than evaluating using PER and about as good, if not better, than WS. Regardless, the best answer to this question is we don't know. Although it leans more towards probably, than probably not.

[Celtics18]

Yeah.  A few years ago when the Celtics were a pseudo-contender, the team was on the national radar and Rondo was putting up some juicy stats... it resulted in some all-star appearances.   His body didn't hold up, though.  He's an injury prone guard who can still probably help a good team when healthy, but his best days are well behind him.

That doesn't take anything away from what Rondo was able to do from 2009-12.  He was a key part of keeping this team relevant as the star talent faded and our window closed.  In terms of Celtic greats history will remember him on a par with Antoine Walker... maybe slightly higher, because he had an additional all-star appearance and he was a role player on a championship in Boston instead of Miami.

This is the most ridiculous post I believe that I've ever seen on Celticsblog.  On par with Toine, or slightly higher?  Wow   I don't even know where to begin on that one, and he's only been injured this one time, he isn't like Derrick Rose or Bynum for crying out loud.  Yeezus !

Don't get me wrong... I'm not taking anything away from Rondo's exciting 3-4 run before a variety of injuries derailed his career.  He was borderline elite for a few years. He was arguably the 2nd best player on a solid 45+ win playoff participant when KG, Ray and Pierce were here.  I'm just saying that as we embark on 2015 and rondo is once again sidelined, his 2009 playoff prime seems like a distant thought. He's missed over 100 games over the past few years.  If he ever gets healthy, he can still be a key player in the right system and right team. Im just saying that for all intents and purposes, his best days are behind him.  Even post-prime JKidd contributed to a champion, though... And Grant Hill proved that injury prone players can find a second life as healthy role players...so I'm not suggesting this is the end for rondo.  He can still have productive seasons.  You could see him pop up in a few years coming off the bench as a pace-changer on a pelicans contender of something.

And the walker thing isn't a stretch.  Walker was a key part of some playoff teams, chased stats, made a few all-star teams, couldn't shoot worth lick, and was a role player on a champion.  Pretty similar to Rondos resume so far.

I'll take the career arc of Jason Kidd, who made six all-star teams after the age of twenty-eight.  According to your timeline, Kidd should have been past his prime  by the time he went to New Jersey.

If nine years from now Rondo is still performing at the level that Jason Kidd was at 37 when he helped Dallas win a title, I'll be more than thrilled.   

[mgent]

We've never even seen Rondo have a full season in his prime.  The NBA prime begins around age 26 and lasts until 30-32.  Say Rondo improves his game as much as Chauncey Billups did around the same age, that'd put him in serious MVP discussion.  Why do you think Rondo is saying this will be the best season of his career, and that he's in the best shape of his life?  Why would he be raising people's expectations if he lost something with the ACL tear?  Why would Danny be saying the exact same thing?  Why has Rondo decided to now to start pressing full court with Bradley if he's lost something?