At 28 is Rondo past his prime?

[D.o.s.]

There's arguments to be had either way in terms of the generalities of the question -- are NBA players past their prime at the age of 28 -- but the problem in talking about it as is relates to Rondo is that we don't know because he hasn't played, so it's largely baseless conjecture without even cursory game footage for us to disagree over.

  He has played, probably for 7-8 years. It's apparently too small a sample size, because you see and unending number of posts about Rondo that start out with "we just don't know how he'll do" if there are any changes to the team whatsoever. I think those people will start to get a sense of those things by the time he's in his early 30s but I've been wrong about that before.

Rondo turned 28 in February. He has played in 30 NBA games since he tore his ACL, about a month before he turned 27. That is not enough games to be able to really judge whether or not he's peaked/is past his prime.

He's almost certainly on the back end of his career athletically speaking, and that's not really up for argument. How much that relates to his ability to function as a high level NBA point guard is a total unknown.

Don't play willfully obtuse, man. You're bad at it.

[BballTim]

There's arguments to be had either way in terms of the generalities of the question -- are NBA players past their prime at the age of 28 -- but the problem in talking about it as is relates to Rondo is that we don't know because he hasn't played, so it's largely baseless conjecture without even cursory game footage for us to disagree over.

  He has played, probably for 7-8 years. It's apparently too small a sample size, because you see and unending number of posts about Rondo that start out with "we just don't know how he'll do" if there are any changes to the team whatsoever. I think those people will start to get a sense of those things by the time he's in his early 30s but I've been wrong about that before.

Rondo turned 28 in February. He has played in 30 NBA games since he tore his ACL, about a month before he turned 27. That is not enough games to be able to really judge whether or not he's peaked/is past his prime.

He's almost certainly on the back end of his career athletically speaking, and that's not really up for argument. How much that relates to his ability to function as a high level NBA point guard is a total unknown.

Don't play willfully obtuse, man. You're bad at it.

  The point is, it shouldn't be a total unknown for someone who's been on your favorite team for years, just like it shouldn't have been a total unknown about what kind of player KG would be as he aged.

[D.o.s.]

There were definitely questions about KG after he went down in 2009, though. That's my point. Players tend to age in a fairly linear fashion (they all drop off right around 30, the question is just how hard and how fast), but injuries are the X factor that makes it impossible to say one way or the other.

[Chris22]

We need to trade Rondo at the deadline.
Smart can man the point.

[sofutomygaha]

Outside of running backs and gymnasts, there aren't too many places in sports where 28 is past your prime. He may never be better than he was before he hurt his knee, but that's not the same thing.

Has he peaked yet? I'd say probably, but I see no reason to think the downslope will be steep. I think he'll be an all-star a few more times if his knee is good.

[Moranis]

Yes.  Nothing to do with age, but merely injuries.

[mmmmm]

The playoffs every year are loaded with players over age 28 -- and a huge share of the main rotation players on those teams are always over 28.   There were 98 players in these last playoffs who played at least 20 mpg (minimum 3 games) and of those 51 (52%) were 28 or older.

As you go deeper in the playoffs, it becomes the land of senior citizens.  Of the 46 of those players that made it to 9 games or more, 26 (56%) were 28+.    Of the 36 of those players that played 12 games or more, 22 (61%) were 28+.

Of the 13 such players who played in the finals, only 3 were under 28.

You see a similar age distribution in the playoffs every year.

Further, I would bet a significant share of those 98 playoff rotation players who are over age 28 have all had at least one significant injury that caused them to miss a significant stretch of games at some point in their career.

The NBA is an old-man's game.  It is dominated by veterans, not noobs.   

Heck, the real 'sweet spot', the "prime" if you will, seems to be the age range of 27-33, as 50 of the 98 playoff rotation players were in that range.

I find the idea that because Rondo is age 28 or because he's had one significant injury in his career that makes him "past his prime" kinda silly.   If anything, he should just be starting his "prime".

There is an obsession with youth that some on this blog have that is getting extreme.  I understand the "allure" of "potential".  Potential never misses a shot and never fails to grab every rebound.  But potential doesn't win in the NBA.  Experience does.

[SHAQATTACK]

Rondo is like a fine wine ....

Better with age

[twistedrico]

Is this thread suppose to be some kind of joke?

[D.o.s.]

The playoffs every year are loaded with players over age 28 -- and a huge share of the main rotation players on those teams are always over 28.   There were 98 players in these last playoffs who played at least 20 mpg (minimum 3 games) and of those 51 (52%) were 28 or older.

As you go deeper in the playoffs, it becomes the land of senior citizens.  Of the 46 of those players that made it to 9 games or more, 26 (56%) were 28+.    Of the 36 of those players that played 12 games or more, 22 (61%) were 28+.

Of the 13 such players who played in the finals, only 3 were under 28.

You see a similar age distribution in the playoffs every year.

Further, I would bet a significant share of those 98 playoff rotation players who are over age 28 have all had at least one significant injury that caused them to miss a significant stretch of games at some point in their career.

The NBA is an old-man's game.  It is dominated by veterans, not noobs.   

Heck, the real 'sweet spot', the "prime" if you will, seems to be the age range of 27-33, as 50 of the 98 playoff rotation players were in that range.

I find the idea that because Rondo is age 28 or because he's had one significant injury in his career that makes him "past his prime" kinda silly.   If anything, he should just be starting his "prime".

There is an obsession with youth that some on this blog have that is getting extreme.  I understand the "allure" of "potential".  Potential never misses a shot and never fails to grab every rebound.  But potential doesn't win in the NBA.  Experience does.

This, of course, has nothing to do with the fact that NBA players don't really get to have a choice in where they play over their first five to eight years in the league. None at all. 

[blink]

The playoffs every year are loaded with players over age 28 -- and a huge share of the main rotation players on those teams are always over 28.   There were 98 players in these last playoffs who played at least 20 mpg (minimum 3 games) and of those 51 (52%) were 28 or older.

As you go deeper in the playoffs, it becomes the land of senior citizens.  Of the 46 of those players that made it to 9 games or more, 26 (56%) were 28+.    Of the 36 of those players that played 12 games or more, 22 (61%) were 28+.

Of the 13 such players who played in the finals, only 3 were under 28.

You see a similar age distribution in the playoffs every year.

Further, I would bet a significant share of those 98 playoff rotation players who are over age 28 have all had at least one significant injury that caused them to miss a significant stretch of games at some point in their career.

The NBA is an old-man's game.  It is dominated by veterans, not noobs.   

Heck, the real 'sweet spot', the "prime" if you will, seems to be the age range of 27-33, as 50 of the 98 playoff rotation players were in that range.

I find the idea that because Rondo is age 28 or because he's had one significant injury in his career that makes him "past his prime" kinda silly.   If anything, he should just be starting his "prime".

There is an obsession with youth that some on this blog have that is getting extreme.  I understand the "allure" of "potential".  Potential never misses a shot and never fails to grab every rebound.  But potential doesn't win in the NBA.  Experience does.

I love it when rational thought is backed up by real statistics.  Nice post.

[mmmmm]

The playoffs every year are loaded with players over age 28 -- and a huge share of the main rotation players on those teams are always over 28.   There were 98 players in these last playoffs who played at least 20 mpg (minimum 3 games) and of those 51 (52%) were 28 or older.

As you go deeper in the playoffs, it becomes the land of senior citizens.  Of the 46 of those players that made it to 9 games or more, 26 (56%) were 28+.    Of the 36 of those players that played 12 games or more, 22 (61%) were 28+.

Of the 13 such players who played in the finals, only 3 were under 28.

You see a similar age distribution in the playoffs every year.

Further, I would bet a significant share of those 98 playoff rotation players who are over age 28 have all had at least one significant injury that caused them to miss a significant stretch of games at some point in their career.

The NBA is an old-man's game.  It is dominated by veterans, not noobs.   

Heck, the real 'sweet spot', the "prime" if you will, seems to be the age range of 27-33, as 50 of the 98 playoff rotation players were in that range.

I find the idea that because Rondo is age 28 or because he's had one significant injury in his career that makes him "past his prime" kinda silly.   If anything, he should just be starting his "prime".

There is an obsession with youth that some on this blog have that is getting extreme.  I understand the "allure" of "potential".  Potential never misses a shot and never fails to grab every rebound.  But potential doesn't win in the NBA.  Experience does.

This, of course, has nothing to do with the fact that NBA players don't really get to have a choice in where they play over their first five to eight years in the league. None at all. 

That may contribute to the framework, but I'm not sure it matters to the point.   Players aren't "washed up" or "past their prime" just because they are 28 years old.  The most competitive, highest quality of basketball gets played each year predominantly by players between ages 27-33.

And "None at all" is a bit of an exaggeration.      Any 1st round pick is capable of becoming a completely unrestricted FA by the end of his 5th year by taking the QO in the RFA year.  Monroe will, for example, be an UFA next summer at age 25.   Certainly, few take that route because the financial incentives are to sign extensions.  But they have that choice.

[D.o.s.]

The playoffs every year are loaded with players over age 28 -- and a huge share of the main rotation players on those teams are always over 28.   There were 98 players in these last playoffs who played at least 20 mpg (minimum 3 games) and of those 51 (52%) were 28 or older.

As you go deeper in the playoffs, it becomes the land of senior citizens.  Of the 46 of those players that made it to 9 games or more, 26 (56%) were 28+.    Of the 36 of those players that played 12 games or more, 22 (61%) were 28+.

Of the 13 such players who played in the finals, only 3 were under 28.

You see a similar age distribution in the playoffs every year.

Further, I would bet a significant share of those 98 playoff rotation players who are over age 28 have all had at least one significant injury that caused them to miss a significant stretch of games at some point in their career.

The NBA is an old-man's game.  It is dominated by veterans, not noobs.   

Heck, the real 'sweet spot', the "prime" if you will, seems to be the age range of 27-33, as 50 of the 98 playoff rotation players were in that range.

I find the idea that because Rondo is age 28 or because he's had one significant injury in his career that makes him "past his prime" kinda silly.   If anything, he should just be starting his "prime".

There is an obsession with youth that some on this blog have that is getting extreme.  I understand the "allure" of "potential".  Potential never misses a shot and never fails to grab every rebound.  But potential doesn't win in the NBA.  Experience does.

I love it when rational thought is backed up by real statistics.  Nice post.

If you want a whole book full of real statistics, you should glance at Stumbling on Wins.
http://books.google.com/books?id=yuboy7O3GPYC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Stumbling+On+Wins:+Two+Economists+Expose+the+Pitfalls+on+the+Road+to+Victory+in+Professional+Sports&hl=en&sa=X&ei=PH7qU_maFon5yQTQz4DoDw&ved=0CB4Q6AEwAA#v=snippet&q=30&f=false

That link should bring you to a really interesting note, that "only 20% of basketball players are in the 30-34 age group," one that would lead me to believe that if you're still in the NBA at/around age 30, it's because you were good enough at basketball to stick around that long-- not necessarily that you are heading towards your peak at that time.

Another thing to consider in regards to that point: if the average NBA career is just under five years long (source: http://www.ramfg.com/RAM-Financial-Group-Solutions-Professional-Athletes-Athletes-Services ) and the average age of an NBA draftee is right around 20-21, then there's no way the advanced age of those players in the NBA playoffs are doing so because they're older/more experienced rather than the fact that they're just more talented than their peers.

I would posit, then, that if you're in the postseason in a major way after 30, it's predominantly because you're still running on the vestiges of the talent that kept you into the league after your mid 20's -- and that by that point in your NBA career, you can choose to play wherever you want, and that's typically for teams that have realistic championship aspirations. For example: Miami, 2011-2014.

[D.o.s.]

By the way, and for the record, this is the half of the discussion that's worth having -- and it has exactly nothing to do with Rondo.

[Beat LA]

Rondo is like a fine wine ....

Better with age

Agreed.  To the premise of this thread I say OH MY GOD   Come on, guys.  This is just getting completely and utterly ridiculous (even more than usual lol).