Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??

[BballTim]

So he's basically past his prime already.

  My bad. The Bucks will obviously rule the second half of the decade. LeBron already has a team of lawyers scouring the fine print of his contract to see how quickly he can jump ship to Milwaukee. Ray Allen's on high alert, hanging around at the airport with tickets to both cities and a suitcase full of winter clothes.

[D.o.s.]

You forgot the part where Ray Ray winds up getting his jersey retired in Milwaukee after hitting a game winning three over... uh... we need another GUARANTEED SUPERSTAR that Ainge missed.

[fairweatherfan]

You forgot the part where Ray Ray winds up getting his jersey retired in Milwaukee after hitting a game winning three over... uh... we need another GUARANTEED SUPERSTAR that Ainge missed.

Perry Jones III.

[BballTim]

You forgot the part where Ray Ray winds up getting his jersey retired in Milwaukee after hitting a game winning three over... uh... we need another GUARANTEED SUPERSTAR that Ainge missed.

  Of course he hits the game winner in game 6, and by the time he finishes replaying the moment in his mind he realizes that game 7 has come and gone.

  I'd guess the other guaranteed star Danny missed out on was James Harden, who he should have insisted on in that Perk trade, or even KD, since Danny didn't tank hard enough to get him that year.

[nickagneta]

OLynyk isn't a bust but he isn't some great replication of some other former NBA star either. His progression was good last year, horrible to start the season and very good to end it but let's not forget something. At the end of the year when Olynyk was playing his best, teams were playing their worst defense against the Celtics. Teams knew the C's could be beat by simply playing great defense in the fourth quarter and that's it and that's what happened.

To solidify his progress I want to see him come out this season and when teams are playing their best defense during the first half of the season, I want Olynyk not to look horrible again. I just feel that if teams play tight great defense on him, he might struggle. A lot.

Time will tell.

[vjcsmoke]

Did I like Giannis in the draft?  Yes I did.  I honestly did.  But that has nothing to do with whether or not KO is a bust.  Based on what I've seen so far, KO has not looked like a bust.  In fact he looked like a very skilled scoring big after the allstar break.

"11.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 51.1 FG%, 42.6 3PT%"

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4712603/report-card-kelly-olynyk

And that's just his rookie year.  I believe he can get better with more minutes and a better body which he seems to have built upon in the offseason.

If you draft a 7 footer with legit offensive skills who puts up say 15/7.5 with around 50% FG and 40% from 3 point range, would that be considered a bust pick by anybody except the world's harshest critic?  That level of growth is not unrealistic to project at this point.

Over the final 3 games of the season KO went into overdrive and produced "25.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per game"

http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2014/09/kelly_olynyk_boston_celtics.html

Yes, those points might have come against poor defenders.  But isn't that exactly what you are supposed to do when you have a matchup advantage?  It is way too early to write off Kelly Olynyk as a bust.  In fact it would be way to early to write off any single player as a bust after just one year.  There is going to be an adjustment period for the majority of NBA players who reach the next level for the first time.

[chambers]

Fine I'll give into the Giannis hype. He's the next Pippin, and will lead the Bucks to multiple NBA titles. Danny once again screwed up a draft, will someone please fire him and trade Rondo while you're at it.

You're missing the point.
No one's saying Giannis is going to be Durant, but he has the most potential to be Durant.
Olynyk was a good, solid pick at #12 and he had (in my opinion) a good, solid first year for a 13th pick.
Ainge can't be criticized for not taking a 17/18 year old kid without much exposure and Olynyk was a solid pick. 99% of the replies to this thread agree that Olynyk was a good to very good pick at 13.
Had Danny gambled on Giannis though, the future of this Celtics team would be looking very interesting with a potential franchise player galloping up and down the court with Marcus Smart, rather than a safer, *fingers crossed* Ryan Anderson type prospect.

I think it would be common sense to say that the Timberwolves would have thought much longer and much harder about a potential Celtics trade package that included Jarred Sullinger and Giannis vs a Kelly Olynyk package. Fair to say?

No that's not fair to say. Flip wanted KO. Everyone knows that is who Flip liked on the Celtics if anybody at all. Flip, in the end, had his eyes on a top 3 pick as the main center piece. GA wouldn't have changed that.

And this thread (not speaking specifically to you here chambers) reminds me of the whole "grass is greener on the other side" theory. Somehow it is ok for people to say GA has Durant potential even though his shot will never be anywhere close to as good, but on the other side it is laughable to compare KO to Dirk at all even though their skill sets are similar regardless of athleticism (not like Dirk was earth shattering in this category either anyway). Weird hypocrisy/contradictions in this thread.

I see where you're coming from. I'm not sure if Flip wanted KO, but if he wanted a top 3 pick as you said yourself, Giannis is considered much closer to top 3 pick value than Kelly Olynyk.

Do you agree if the draft were done again that Giannis would go ahead of Olynyk? If so, why is that? Why does Giannis go to the top 3 and Olynyk stays where he was picked or moves up or down slightly?

It's not a hypocrisy, it's a truthful statement that Giannis is considered to have franchise player potential (which may or may not be unlocked), Kelly Olynyk does not.

It's not fair to criticize Ainge for taking Olynyk over Giannis though, not by an reasonable extent.

  What would you put the odds of GA becoming a franchise player at? 1 in 2? 1 in 5? 1 in 100?

 1 in 50?
Whatever it is, it's more than Olynyk.

Here's the catch...
Do you take Olynyk turning into Ryan Anderson 1 in 20 or Giannis becoming a top 10 NBA player at 1 in 50?

[vjcsmoke]

1 in 50?
Whatever it is, it's more than Olynyk.

Here's the catch...
Do you take Olynyk turning into Ryan Anderson 1 in 20 or Giannis becoming a top 10 NBA player at 1 in 50?

Hindsight is 50/50.  We could have had Tony Parker, a franchise PG but we ended up with Joe Forte instead.  And BTW I heard that was an Auerbach pick.  And Auerbach is considered a genius team builder by most people.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/06/18/why-didnt-the-celtics-draft-tony-parker-red-auerbach/

And let's be fair.  Forte flat out sucked.  Was out of the league in a few years.  At least KO has shown signs that he could be a legit player for us.

[makaveli]

IMHO Kelly will end up just like Al Jefferson. Will get traded for a star player in a year or two, and afterwards slowly develop into a borderline all star player

If Kelly gets traded for the 2015 equivalent of KG, that will work for me!

If my memory is correct about Big Al, it felt like we struck gold right out of the gate.  Even though it took a couple of years of seasoning for him to make a substantial impact, Al had moves right out of HS that left C's fans universally smiling.  After year 3 for Al (at Kelly's age now), I think everyone projected him as a future all-star.   I don't think there is the same consensus at this point in their respective careers about their future.  KO projects as a good rotation player whereas people were talking about very big things for Big Al.

hey, you didn't really read what i wrote
anyway, i didn't want to compare their level of potential or compare them as players, i simply shared a thought that Kelly has lot's of potential and his stock will be very high after this year if all goes as it should, so DA might patch up a deal to get a star player in return for KO(plus other pieces of course)

PS I miss Big Al so much, can't believe the Celtics front office didn't go hard after him last year!!

[BballTim]

Fine I'll give into the Giannis hype. He's the next Pippin, and will lead the Bucks to multiple NBA titles. Danny once again screwed up a draft, will someone please fire him and trade Rondo while you're at it.

You're missing the point.
No one's saying Giannis is going to be Durant, but he has the most potential to be Durant.
Olynyk was a good, solid pick at #12 and he had (in my opinion) a good, solid first year for a 13th pick.
Ainge can't be criticized for not taking a 17/18 year old kid without much exposure and Olynyk was a solid pick. 99% of the replies to this thread agree that Olynyk was a good to very good pick at 13.
Had Danny gambled on Giannis though, the future of this Celtics team would be looking very interesting with a potential franchise player galloping up and down the court with Marcus Smart, rather than a safer, *fingers crossed* Ryan Anderson type prospect.

I think it would be common sense to say that the Timberwolves would have thought much longer and much harder about a potential Celtics trade package that included Jarred Sullinger and Giannis vs a Kelly Olynyk package. Fair to say?

No that's not fair to say. Flip wanted KO. Everyone knows that is who Flip liked on the Celtics if anybody at all. Flip, in the end, had his eyes on a top 3 pick as the main center piece. GA wouldn't have changed that.

And this thread (not speaking specifically to you here chambers) reminds me of the whole "grass is greener on the other side" theory. Somehow it is ok for people to say GA has Durant potential even though his shot will never be anywhere close to as good, but on the other side it is laughable to compare KO to Dirk at all even though their skill sets are similar regardless of athleticism (not like Dirk was earth shattering in this category either anyway). Weird hypocrisy/contradictions in this thread.

I see where you're coming from. I'm not sure if Flip wanted KO, but if he wanted a top 3 pick as you said yourself, Giannis is considered much closer to top 3 pick value than Kelly Olynyk.

Do you agree if the draft were done again that Giannis would go ahead of Olynyk? If so, why is that? Why does Giannis go to the top 3 and Olynyk stays where he was picked or moves up or down slightly?

It's not a hypocrisy, it's a truthful statement that Giannis is considered to have franchise player potential (which may or may not be unlocked), Kelly Olynyk does not.

It's not fair to criticize Ainge for taking Olynyk over Giannis though, not by an reasonable extent.

  What would you put the odds of GA becoming a franchise player at? 1 in 2? 1 in 5? 1 in 100?

 1 in 50?
Whatever it is, it's more than Olynyk.

Here's the catch...
Do you take Olynyk turning into Ryan Anderson 1 in 20 or Giannis becoming a top 10 NBA player at 1 in 50?

  The chances of Giannis being as good as Ryan Anderson might not be higher than 1 in 20 either. The reality of the situation is that the bulk of the players that come into the league don't have the size/athleticism to be true superstars in the league. So one can claim that the odds of the best athletes in the draft being superstars is greater than the odds of the other players becoming superstars, basically on the non-zero > zero theory. By the same token, players like Gerald Green and Jerome Moiso and Kedrick Brown were more likely to turn into franchise players than almost everyone in their drafts because they had the athleticism to do so while the others didn't.

  Even if you think (and even if you're right) about Giannis being more skilled than any of the players that I mentioned, you seem to think that the odds of his becoming a superstar are remote at best. So while I agree that he has a better shot at being a franchise player than KO, I don't agree that the 1 in 50 (or worse) chance that it happens should have a huge influence on who Danny drafts, and I don't think it's worth passing on a player who might end up being better than Giannis for.

[mmmmm]

Where are links to these "mock re-drafts" that have Giannis going at #1?

Who is picking in those?

[RAcker]

Enjoying this thread.  Nice work, folks.

[CelticsFanFromNYC]

Where are links to these "mock re-drafts" that have Giannis going at #1?

Who is picking in those?

Same people who were debating wether to draft Giannis or Bennett #1

[DarkAzcura]

Fine I'll give into the Giannis hype. He's the next Pippin, and will lead the Bucks to multiple NBA titles. Danny once again screwed up a draft, will someone please fire him and trade Rondo while you're at it.

You're missing the point.
No one's saying Giannis is going to be Durant, but he has the most potential to be Durant.
Olynyk was a good, solid pick at #12 and he had (in my opinion) a good, solid first year for a 13th pick.
Ainge can't be criticized for not taking a 17/18 year old kid without much exposure and Olynyk was a solid pick. 99% of the replies to this thread agree that Olynyk was a good to very good pick at 13.
Had Danny gambled on Giannis though, the future of this Celtics team would be looking very interesting with a potential franchise player galloping up and down the court with Marcus Smart, rather than a safer, *fingers crossed* Ryan Anderson type prospect.

I think it would be common sense to say that the Timberwolves would have thought much longer and much harder about a potential Celtics trade package that included Jarred Sullinger and Giannis vs a Kelly Olynyk package. Fair to say?

No that's not fair to say. Flip wanted KO. Everyone knows that is who Flip liked on the Celtics if anybody at all. Flip, in the end, had his eyes on a top 3 pick as the main center piece. GA wouldn't have changed that.

And this thread (not speaking specifically to you here chambers) reminds me of the whole "grass is greener on the other side" theory. Somehow it is ok for people to say GA has Durant potential even though his shot will never be anywhere close to as good, but on the other side it is laughable to compare KO to Dirk at all even though their skill sets are similar regardless of athleticism (not like Dirk was earth shattering in this category either anyway). Weird hypocrisy/contradictions in this thread.

I see where you're coming from. I'm not sure if Flip wanted KO, but if he wanted a top 3 pick as you said yourself, Giannis is considered much closer to top 3 pick value than Kelly Olynyk.

Do you agree if the draft were done again that Giannis would go ahead of Olynyk? If so, why is that? Why does Giannis go to the top 3 and Olynyk stays where he was picked or moves up or down slightly?

It's not a hypocrisy, it's a truthful statement that Giannis is considered to have franchise player potential (which may or may not be unlocked), Kelly Olynyk does not.

It's not fair to criticize Ainge for taking Olynyk over Giannis though, not by an reasonable extent.

  What would you put the odds of GA becoming a franchise player at? 1 in 2? 1 in 5? 1 in 100?

 1 in 50?
Whatever it is, it's more than Olynyk.

Here's the catch...
Do you take Olynyk turning into Ryan Anderson 1 in 20 or Giannis becoming a top 10 NBA player at 1 in 50?

I don't know why you keep bringing up Ryan Anderson, though. Ryan Anderson in his career takes 50+% of his FGA from 3PT land. One of his seasons 65% of his FGA came from 3PT land. That's crazy stuff (good or bad, you be the judge). This is not Kelly Olynyk's game and is the reason why comparing him to Dirk is a much better comparison than Anderson even if you may think it is crazy to say. We aren't talking about level of performance here. I'm just talking about style, and Kelly Olynyk and Ryan Anderson are no where near each other in style. Ryan Anderson is basically non-existent from 3-23 feet for most of his career. He's finally stepped in and started taking more shots from 16-23 feet, but he's very limited. Olynyk has already shown more diversity and willingness to play all around the floor than Anderson ever has.

Olynyk will never be the kind of guy to shoot over 50% of his attempts from 3PT land. He's always going to be the kind of guy who steps out to the 3PT line occasionally (20-25% 3PAr) who tries to mix it up in-between. He is already a more versatile scorer than Ryan Anderson. He's equal or better at rebounding. Kelly's already a better passer. I doubt Olynyk is worse on defense right now either. If we are talking about Kelly becoming the level of player Ryan Anderson is? Honestly I'm not worried about that. You are completely selling Olynyk short by giving him a 1/20 chance of matching Ryan Anderson who is completely one dimensional. Olynyk is far more multi-skilled already.

Olynyk took 40% of his FGA at the rim and had a 65% FG in that area. Anderson in his rookie year also took 40% of his FGA at the rim but had a 43% FG there. The guy had to substantially drop his at rim FGA over the course of his career to bring up his FG% there because his finishing ability is not that great. I mean even this past season Anderson took 20% of his FGA at the rim but only finished at a 53% rate. That is really below average for a big man in that area. That's why he falls back all the way to the 3PT line while Olynyk can mix it up anywhere on the court.

Even if Olynyk never reaches 20 PPG like Anderson did this past season, I'd still prefer Olynyk on my team because he scores in more ways and does more than just score in general.

[D.o.s.]

Ryan Anderson is basically a seven foot tall high volume shooting guard.

Not a good thing, not a bad thing, but that's more or less what he is.