Whats Stopping us from having a season like last years Phoenix Suns

[Future Celtics Owner]

What is stopping us from making the playoffs is called the NBA Draft. And this year we will draft our future center....Karl Towns

Also to make the playoffs we would need a legit defensive center, like: Larry Sanders. Or we could do a  small trade for Biz. Either trade I would not give up anything more than minimal assets.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I am much more excited to see player development (and possibly a rising star) than I am to see us win/make the playoffs.

[obnoxiousmime]

Phoenix has two capable PGs who can both shoot which is obviously an even more valuable talent in today's NBA. They also have a young team that can play a faster style that teams can't keep up with during the slog of the 82-game season. Plumlee was a great find for them and also they had shooters like Frye and Green.

I don't think the Celtics roster can mimic that style because their shooting is severely lacking and Rondo doesn't want/can't play a faster pace. They also don't have a Plumlee and they don't have enough overall athleticism.

[mgent]

Bradley shot 40%(39.5) from 3 last season. Rondo will look 10x better in a non-tank season and since he's healthier. Rondo is going to make Zeller look GOOD. Olynyk, Bradley and Sullinger still have upside. Smart will at worst be high energy and play D as 3rd guard.

There's a huge range for how good they could be, but I think they have a very good shot to make the playoffs as 8th seed. I don't think a 2014 Suns-ish season is out of the question, a LOT of things would have to go right.

Bradley shot less than half as many three pointers as G. Green did last year.

Which Bradley are you talking about?  The one that started the season shooting excessive long 2PT jumpers?  Or the one that ended the season with his feet firmly outside the arc on those same shots?

Before the All Star break, Bradley shot just 3.4 3PA per 36.

After the All Star break, Bradley shot 5.5 3PA per 36.   

In April, he ended the season shooting 6.7 per 36 (hitting 52.9% of them!).

Not quite up there with the ridiculous 7.9 3PA per 36 that Gerald launched last year.  But a fair bit more than half that rate. 

And certainly a rate that should command a bit of attention from defenses if Bradley can maintain it at a reasonable efficiency (he doesn't have to keep hitting them at 52.9%, obviously).

Avery Bradley.  There's only one of them.  What he does over the entire season matters.

And what he did was attempt less 3s than Green made.

He already acknowledged that, he just saying how Bradley improved over the season and became a more efficient 3 point shooter.

Or it was just something called the law of averages.  Pointing out that Bradley shot 53% in April is nice and all, but it doesn't add anything to the argument.  It's completely unsustainable for him throughout the year.  I'm sure you can find plenty of shooters on Bradley's level who shot 53% one month.

Never mind the fact that he's talking about a month where Avery played only 5 games, against PHI!, CLE!, ATL, CHA, and the last game against WAS with no starters/effort.  I'd also question anyone who looked at Bradley's game log and said he clearly improved from 3 throughout the season (it's basically up and down).

[nickagneta]

In order for the idea that the C's will be like last year's Suns would need the following to take place:

- Rondo/Bradley/Green/Sullinger/Olynyk become the starting five
- Rondo has a 15PPG, 11 APG, 5 RPG, 2 SPG, 50% FG%, 33% #PT%, 70% FT% with great defense type year
- Bradley needs to be offensively what he was the last couple months last year, shooting over 40% from 3 and get back to being a tenacious defender
- Green has to raise him game to 19+PPG, 6 RRPG shooting 55% TS% and over 38% from three while playing stellar defense
- Olynyk needs to become a 50/40/90 shooting type guy and gooble rebounds just to overcome the poor defender he is and make a positive impact on the game
- Sully has to become a 20/10 stud and take charges like crazy on the defensive end.

Then

- Marcus Smart needs to show he can run an offense, be the ridiculous defender people expect and try to find a legit outside shot to help his dribble penetration stuff because as effective as it can
- Turner needs to become the scoring punch off the bench this team needs so that they are not going dry for spells in the 2nd and late 3rd and early 4th quarters
- Zeller has to show some defensive abilities and probably be an 8PPG 8RPG type bench big
- Thorton, Bass, Bogans, Babb and Johnson need to be traded for a player that will come in and give the team some rim protection or more deadly outside shooting while not being a defensive liability
- Wallace needs to get healthy and be the vet leader and all around good player that we saw in Charlotte. No not for 35 MPG but for 15 or so.
-Brad Stevens needs to get a better offensive system that rewards his best players with the bal and stop this college ball motion offense thing he has them doing. Also, he has to get Rondo to buy into playing at a faster pace and keep him increasing the pace of the game.

Have all those things go perfectly right without injuries and the C's could be like last year's Suns.

Is it any wonder people aren't high on the chances of this not happening?

[BballTim]

In order for the idea that the C's will be like last year's Suns would need the following to take place:

- Rondo/Bradley/Green/Sullinger/Olynyk become the starting five
- Rondo has a 15PPG, 11 APG, 5 RPG, 2 SPG, 50% FG%, 33% #PT%, 70% FT% with great defense type year
- Bradley needs to be offensively what he was the last couple months last year, shooting over 40% from 3 and get back to being a tenacious defender
- Green has to raise him game to 19+PPG, 6 RRPG shooting 55% TS% and over 38% from three while playing stellar defense
- Olynyk needs to become a 50/40/90 shooting type guy and gooble rebounds just to overcome the poor defender he is and make a positive impact on the game
- Sully has to become a 20/10 stud and take charges like crazy on the defensive end.

Then

- Marcus Smart needs to show he can run an offense, be the ridiculous defender people expect and try to find a legit outside shot to help his dribble penetration stuff because as effective as it can
- Turner needs to become the scoring punch off the bench this team needs so that they are not going dry for spells in the 2nd and late 3rd and early 4th quarters
- Zeller has to show some defensive abilities and probably be an 8PPG 8RPG type bench big
- Thorton, Bass, Bogans, Babb and Johnson need to be traded for a player that will come in and give the team some rim protection or more deadly outside shooting while not being a defensive liability
- Wallace needs to get healthy and be the vet leader and all around good player that we saw in Charlotte. No not for 35 MPG but for 15 or so.
-Brad Stevens needs to get a better offensive system that rewards his best players with the bal and stop this college ball motion offense thing he has them doing. Also, he has to get Rondo to buy into playing at a faster pace and keep him increasing the pace of the game.

Have all those things go perfectly right without injuries and the C's could be like last year's Suns.

Is it any wonder people aren't high on the chances of this not happening?

  All those things won't happen, but if they do we'll be significantly better than the Suns last year. They'd have a strong shot at the conference finals.

[blink]

In order for the idea that the C's will be like last year's Suns would need the following to take place:

- Rondo/Bradley/Green/Sullinger/Olynyk become the starting five
- Rondo has a 15PPG, 11 APG, 5 RPG, 2 SPG, 50% FG%, 33% #PT%, 70% FT% with great defense type year
- Bradley needs to be offensively what he was the last couple months last year, shooting over 40% from 3 and get back to being a tenacious defender
- Green has to raise him game to 19+PPG, 6 RRPG shooting 55% TS% and over 38% from three while playing stellar defense
- Olynyk needs to become a 50/40/90 shooting type guy and gooble rebounds just to overcome the poor defender he is and make a positive impact on the game
- Sully has to become a 20/10 stud and take charges like crazy on the defensive end.

Then

- Marcus Smart needs to show he can run an offense, be the ridiculous defender people expect and try to find a legit outside shot to help his dribble penetration stuff because as effective as it can
- Turner needs to become the scoring punch off the bench this team needs so that they are not going dry for spells in the 2nd and late 3rd and early 4th quarters
- Zeller has to show some defensive abilities and probably be an 8PPG 8RPG type bench big
- Thorton, Bass, Bogans, Babb and Johnson need to be traded for a player that will come in and give the team some rim protection or more deadly outside shooting while not being a defensive liability
- Wallace needs to get healthy and be the vet leader and all around good player that we saw in Charlotte. No not for 35 MPG but for 15 or so.
-Brad Stevens needs to get a better offensive system that rewards his best players with the bal and stop this college ball motion offense thing he has them doing. Also, he has to get Rondo to buy into playing at a faster pace and keep him increasing the pace of the game.

Have all those things go perfectly right without injuries and the C's could be like last year's Suns.

Is it any wonder people aren't high on the chances of this not happening?

That was a pretty well thought out post.  I agree, a lot has to happen for the C's to make a big leap this year.  A few of them happening, I can see, but enough of them to get us into the playoffs, I doubt it.  I would really enjoy it if all of them happened though.  Wouldn't it be awesome if some of our players made a big leap and we could stop talking about who we are going to have to trade for to be relevant...because we already would be relevant.

[indeedproceed]

I don't think it's as severe as nick puts it there, but due to Rondo's playing style we're going to need guys to step up as scorers and we're going to need to get consistent from range. Defense will be a problem, the giant hole up front makes everything else tougher.

I don't see it.

[fairweatherfan]

Don't aim so low.  What's stopping us from having a season like this year's Phoenix Mercury?

[Rondo9]

Bradley shot 40%(39.5) from 3 last season. Rondo will look 10x better in a non-tank season and since he's healthier. Rondo is going to make Zeller look GOOD. Olynyk, Bradley and Sullinger still have upside. Smart will at worst be high energy and play D as 3rd guard.

There's a huge range for how good they could be, but I think they have a very good shot to make the playoffs as 8th seed. I don't think a 2014 Suns-ish season is out of the question, a LOT of things would have to go right.

Bradley shot less than half as many three pointers as G. Green did last year.

Which Bradley are you talking about?  The one that started the season shooting excessive long 2PT jumpers?  Or the one that ended the season with his feet firmly outside the arc on those same shots?

Before the All Star break, Bradley shot just 3.4 3PA per 36.

After the All Star break, Bradley shot 5.5 3PA per 36.   

In April, he ended the season shooting 6.7 per 36 (hitting 52.9% of them!).

Not quite up there with the ridiculous 7.9 3PA per 36 that Gerald launched last year.  But a fair bit more than half that rate. 

And certainly a rate that should command a bit of attention from defenses if Bradley can maintain it at a reasonable efficiency (he doesn't have to keep hitting them at 52.9%, obviously).

Avery Bradley.  There's only one of them.  What he does over the entire season matters.

And what he did was attempt less 3s than Green made.

He already acknowledged that, he just saying how Bradley improved over the season and became a more efficient 3 point shooter.

Or it was just something called the law of averages.  Pointing out that Bradley shot 53% in April is nice and all, but it doesn't add anything to the argument.  It's completely unsustainable for him throughout the year.  I'm sure you can find plenty of shooters on Bradley's level who shot 53% one month.

Never mind the fact that he's talking about a month where Avery played only 5 games, against PHI!, CLE!, ATL, CHA, and the last game against WAS with no starters/effort.  I'd also question anyone who looked at Bradley's game log and said he clearly improved from 3 throughout the season (it's basically up and down).

Does it matter about the teams he played against and the effort they put up. Bradley clearly improved from three overall and he just broke it down. I don't think it's sustainable, but to say he hasn't improved throughout the season or won't improve this year is silly.

[Rondo9]

In order for the idea that the C's will be like last year's Suns would need the following to take place:

- Rondo/Bradley/Green/Sullinger/Olynyk become the starting five
- Rondo has a 15PPG, 11 APG, 5 RPG, 2 SPG, 50% FG%, 33% #PT%, 70% FT% with great defense type year
- Bradley needs to be offensively what he was the last couple months last year, shooting over 40% from 3 and get back to being a tenacious defender
- Green has to raise him game to 19+PPG, 6 RRPG shooting 55% TS% and over 38% from three while playing stellar defense
- Olynyk needs to become a 50/40/90 shooting type guy and gooble rebounds just to overcome the poor defender he is and make a positive impact on the game
- Sully has to become a 20/10 stud and take charges like crazy on the defensive end.

Then

- Marcus Smart needs to show he can run an offense, be the ridiculous defender people expect and try to find a legit outside shot to help his dribble penetration stuff because as effective as it can
- Turner needs to become the scoring punch off the bench this team needs so that they are not going dry for spells in the 2nd and late 3rd and early 4th quarters
- Zeller has to show some defensive abilities and probably be an 8PPG 8RPG type bench big
- Thorton, Bass, Bogans, Babb and Johnson need to be traded for a player that will come in and give the team some rim protection or more deadly outside shooting while not being a defensive liability
- Wallace needs to get healthy and be the vet leader and all around good player that we saw in Charlotte. No not for 35 MPG but for 15 or so.
-Brad Stevens needs to get a better offensive system that rewards his best players with the bal and stop this college ball motion offense thing he has them doing. Also, he has to get Rondo to buy into playing at a faster pace and keep him increasing the pace of the game.

Have all those things go perfectly right without injuries and the C's could be like last year's Suns.

Is it any wonder people aren't high on the chances of this not happening?

If it were like that, then the Celtics are championship contenders and way better than the Suns.

[obnoxiousmime]

I don't think it's as severe as nick puts it there, but due to Rondo's playing style we're going to need guys to step up as scorers and we're going to need to get consistent from range. Defense will be a problem, the giant hole up front makes everything else tougher.

I don't see it.

You mentioned one of the big problems -- when it comes down to it, you have to put the ball in the basket. All too often last year we had good enough looks but the ball just wouldn't go down with the same consistency that the star players can make it go down. Some of it is talent, some of it is hard work, and some of it is youth (most prospects coming into the league don't exactly have great shots). What I worry about is that ultimately we have too many guys that will just never improve to that consistent level.

You want to compare Olynyk to Nowitzki? Well, Dirk makes the open shots and a lot of the contested ones too. Wish Green could score closer to that 20 PPG? He needs to shoot better than 34% from 3 to do that.

All of these other skills that are nice (rebounding, passing, driving, defense to some extent) are all useful for making one thing easier: creating a better opportunity to shoot the ball in the hoop. But if you can't take advantage of that opportunity when it comes due to poor shooting, it's not going to translate into wins. Like Rivers said once, it's a make/miss league.

Statistically the Celtics actually were ranked relatively high in defensive points allowed the first half or so of the season. But they still had a losing record because they couldn't score enough.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

Do I see us being able to win 20 more games than last season? Yep, it's not as wild a # as people suggest. Heck, we could have been at least 10 games better last season on games we coughed up alone!


Plumlee and Sully a tie? So, you would trade Sully for him straight up? I doubt it. I love the Plumlees as a Duke fan, he's good but I'm not doing that deal.

We probably lost about at least 10 more games by forcing RR.

Probably lost some because of getting rid of JCraw.

Injuries.

New coach and all but 5 new players.

Yep, we could have won around 20 more last season. This is a new season with changes to some East teams, I dunno if it will be as easy as it was last season. I don't think it's impossible though.

[BballTim]

I don't think it's as severe as nick puts it there, but due to Rondo's playing style we're going to need guys to step up as scorers and we're going to need to get consistent from range. Defense will be a problem, the giant hole up front makes everything else tougher.

I don't see it.

You mentioned one of the big problems -- when it comes down to it, you have to put the ball in the basket. All too often last year we had good enough looks but the ball just wouldn't go down with the same consistency that the star players can make it go down. Some of it is talent, some of it is hard work, and some of it is youth (most prospects coming into the league don't exactly have great shots). What I worry about is that ultimately we have too many guys that will just never improve to that consistent level.

You want to compare Olynyk to Nowitzki? Well, Dirk makes the open shots and a lot of the contested ones too. Wish Green could score closer to that 20 PPG? He needs to shoot better than 34% from 3 to do that.

All of these other skills that are nice (rebounding, passing, driving, defense to some extent) are all useful for making one thing easier: creating a better opportunity to shoot the ball in the hoop. But if you can't take advantage of that opportunity when it comes due to poor shooting, it's not going to translate into wins. Like Rivers said once, it's a make/miss league.

Statistically the Celtics actually were ranked relatively high in defensive points allowed the first half or so of the season. But they still had a losing record because they couldn't score enough.

  Part of the problem with the offense was a lack of talent but a lot of it was a lack of continuity. Hopefully that will be less of an issue next year.

[obnoxiousmime]

Do I see us being able to win 20 more games than last season? Yep, it's not as wild a # as people suggest. Heck, we could have been at least 10 games better last season on games we coughed up alone!


Plumlee and Sully a tie? So, you would trade Sully for him straight up? I doubt it. I love the Plumlees as a Duke fan, he's good but I'm not doing that deal.

We probably lost about at least 10 more games by forcing RR.

Probably lost some because of getting rid of JCraw.

Injuries.

New coach and all but 5 new players.

Yep, we could have won around 20 more last season. This is a new season with changes to some East teams, I dunno if it will be as easy as it was last season. I don't think it's impossible though.

That logic is always faulty to me because you're not counting the games the team could easily have lost but managed to win. It's like saying, "well just one made field goal and the Pats would have been 12-4." The counterpoint is you could easily play the what if game with wins as well. Last season the Pats might have won an extra game or two, but they were also fortunate to escape from a few games with a W. Why aren't those games included in the estimate?

The main reason it's very unlikely to happen is the team did not make an acquisition on the level of a Bledsoe, Frye, Green, or Plumlee this offseason (not to mention the Suns got a new coach who might be pretty good). The Celtics are pretty much the same besides adding Thornton, Zeller, Smart, and Young. I don't really see any of those guys making such a dramatic difference in wins and losses this season.

You are right about the East possibly being weaker though. The Pacers are already going to be missing George and Stephenson and Miami lost LeBron, so the top two Eastern teams from last year are weaker. We also have not seen the new look Cavs yet and who knows if Rose will return to form. The Hawks are going through a crazy ownership/management situation.

On the negative side, a lot of the Eastern talent that moved just went to other Eastern teams (Pierce, McRoberts, Stephenson, Deng, Mike Miller, Ray Allen) and notable Western players moved to the East like Love, Frye, Calderon, Gasol, and Marion. We might just see a stronger middle class in the East as opposed to the top heavy conference of last year. Whether that means more Ws for the Celtics remains to be seen.