Free Agency: Don't we need to change the definition of "overpay"?

[BleedGreen1989]

I see people on the ledge, ready to jump over the Bradley deal.

- Hayward is going to get the max.

- Gortat got $60 million.

- Meeks got $19 million.

- Lowry will likely get $50 million.

- Livingston got three years, $16 million to come off the bench despite hardly being healthy for nine years.

- Ben freaking Gordon got two years, $9 million guaranteed.

- Wade will probably get over $12 million a year based on name alone.

-Patty Mills has been rumored around $5-$6mill per

It seems you can literally go down the list and quickly say "overpaid" for every one, but if every signing is an "overpay", don't you just concede that is the market in 2014 nba?

[NorthernLightning]

I wonder how much Jarryd Bayless is going to get, and from which team?

He might get 4-5 million.

[Gainesville Celtic]

I see people on the ledge, ready to jump over the Bradley deal.

- Hayward is going to get the max.

- Gortat got $60 million.

- Meeks got $19 million.

- Lowry will likely get $50 million.

- Livingston got three years, $16 million to come off the bench despite hardly being healthy for nine years.

- Ben freaking Gordon got two years, $9 million guaranteed.

- Wade will probably get over $12 million a year based on name alone.

-Patty Mills has been rumored around $5-$6mill per

It seems you can literally go down the list and quickly say "overpaid" for every one, but if every signing is an "overpay", don't you just concede that is the market in 2014 nba?

Yep I think Ainge sized things up (large # of teams with space, the lack fo marque FA and the inflated salaries that combo will create) and signed Bradley to what will end up be a fine deal --- and one that can be used in a trade for a better player if needed (if Bradley can stay healthy).

[celticmania]

Patty mills is very much deserving of 5-6 MILLS   

[Sixth Man]

I see people on the ledge, ready to jump over the Bradley deal.

- Hayward is going to get the max.

- Gortat got $60 million.

- Meeks got $19 million.

- Lowry will likely get $50 million.

- Livingston got three years, $16 million to come off the bench despite hardly being healthy for nine years.

- Ben freaking Gordon got two years, $9 million guaranteed.

- Wade will probably get over $12 million a year based on name alone.

-Patty Mills has been rumored around $5-$6mill per

It seems you can literally go down the list and quickly say "overpaid" for every one, but if every signing is an "overpay", don't you just concede that is the market in 2014 nba?

An economist would agree with you, and so would I.  There is a difference between 'overpaid' and "paid more than I would like to see."

[crimson_stallion]

I agree, which is why I've been saying for that past several months that there is no chance in hell Boston (or any team) will get Bradley for the $4-$6m digits that people have been throwing around here.

It's as simple as looking what other guys in the league are getting at his age,  with anything close to his skill set.   Yes he has injury issues and yes that will bring his value down.   All that means is that he won't get a $10m deal. 

Jeff Green is on $9m a year and most agree it's fair for his production level.  Bradley produced at a similar level offensively last season while also being a two time all defensive team player and being only 23 years old this season.   all of that makes him a $10m guy.   Injury history brings that down to earth a bit,  hence the claimed 4-year, 32 million deal.

[Casperian]

Sure, if we want to dilute a discussion and move the goalposts to fit whatever point it is we're trying to make, then we should definitely try to change the definition of simple and well established terms.

[Greenbean]

Yes good point to the OP but clearly the agents are winning at the negotiation table right now. The market is inflated but the cap is not moving significantly.

That could ultimately lead to more parity I suppose if the trend continues since teams will not really be able to stack their roster.

[bballdog384]

CJ Miles just got 18 mil over 4 years from the Pacers.

That's 4.5 mil/year for a player that only earned 20 minutes per game last year with the Cavs.

[Who]

It sure is looking that way, yeah. Hard to know where the line is right now.

[action781]

I disagree.

Every offseason, we can make a list like this of signings that surprise us, which could easily lead to the conclusion that market value is higher than we think it is.  Then 2 years later, the teams that make those signings all find themselves hampered by them and then are desperately trying to trade them away.

I remember very clearly people on this blog discussing that Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, John Salmons, Perkins, Villanueva, etc. all were overpaid at the times of their signings.  Every offseason, we celticbloggers can't count on 10 fingers how many of contracts like that get issued.  It doesn't mean we're wrong on our perception of what market value is.... it means the GMs are wrong about what their perception of market value is.

I mean, isn't it interesting that the Spurs never seem to find themselves with those players?  Teams like Phoenix and Houston have done fairly well lately in that regard as well.

[Csfan1984]

I think it changes as a year to year basis because the following question can be asked every year. Does a guy play below, to or above their contract in relation to other players in the price range?

Right now based on what others will get in this market AB is not overpaid. Per 36 #s puts AB right near Hayward and Stephenson yet those two guys are 12million-Max players. If those guys get that one could argue Bradley could have received 10million per year.

[LooseCannon]

Right now based on what others will get in this market AB is not overpaid. Per 36 #s puts AB right near Hayward and Stephenson yet those two guys are 12million-Max players. If those guys get that one could argue Bradley could have received 10million per year.

While I don't think he is overpaid, it is possible to get market value and be overpaid if the market is inefficient, as the free agent market often can be.

[BballTim]

I disagree.

Every offseason, we can make a list like this of signings that surprise us, which could easily lead to the conclusion that market value is higher than we think it is.  Then 2 years later, the teams that make those signings all find themselves hampered by them and then are desperately trying to trade them away.

I remember very clearly people on this blog discussing that Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, John Salmons, Perkins, Villanueva, etc. all were overpaid at the times of their signings.  Every offseason, we celticbloggers can't count on 10 fingers how many of contracts like that get issued.  It doesn't mean we're wrong on our perception of what market value is.... it means the GMs are wrong about what their perception of market value is.

I mean, isn't it interesting that the Spurs never seem to find themselves with those players?  Teams like Phoenix and Houston have done fairly well lately in that regard as well.

  Jefferson springs to mind for the Spurs.

[TBreezy]

Not an economist but i would think some insight on surplus and shortage scenarios and how they affect price would be good to review, before we comment on whether a deal is market value or not.  Further complicating the analysis is how individual teams group and compare assets, the fact that NBA players are no homogenous commodities, not even at their desired position.  They are imperfect substitutes for each other.

Now I (me myself and I only) valued Ab at 6  per.  However I don't any insights into the market (its not like contracts are super liquid, only a small portion are newly negotiated - and only the y1 dollars looks to define the current market).  I don't have much insight on how to replace AB on the current C's and I don't have experience projecting players.  Anecdotally AB looks to have improved his offense, his shooting is better and with more confidence, yet could stand to be a little more consistent.  I really liked bulldog bradley on defense, and wished he played that way last year (i don't know why he didn't- did stevens ask him to tone it down).

An overpay is a contract above market value.  Market value changes with every new contract signed, and on the whispers of deals being leaked. 

It may be an overpay, but that isn't based on how he performs in the future.  It is based on what the market will bear on his projected future performance.  We simply cant answer this until FA is over.  What we can say, is "I wouldn't pay him that".  but instead of whining formulate a strategy how would you spend the 8MM?  Of course that would require you to renounce the rights to all free agents and cut all players on options. TO get access to that money.  Also who would fill in the remaining roster spots?