Simmoms Grantland draft article: chance of drafting a star

[Waew]

http://grantland.com/features/nba-draft-crapshoot-repick-1995/

he mentions that flip and other teams might not want a lotto pick because they're scared of being responsible for a drafting a bust. Also has a large study of all drafts and chance of drafting a star. Basically its a crapshoot, later picks around 9 have yielded more stars than picks 2-3 which means nothing but there's a lot in this article mentioning how random the draft is.

[Donoghus]

http://grantland.com/features/nba-draft-crapshoot-repick-1995/

he mentions that flip and other teams might not want a lotto pick because they're scared of being responsible for a drafting a bust. Also has a large study of all drafts and chance of drafting a star. Basically its a crapshoot, later picks around 9 have yielded more stars than picks 2-3 which means nothing but there's a lot in this article mentioning how random the draft is.

I think its a lot of b.s.   

Trust your scouting department.  This is their job.  Work out these guys & make your judgements.    If you're scared because of the possible bust factor, you shouldn't be doing this job. 

I do agree that history has proven the draft to be a crapshoot but its still better to have a lottery pick that not.  Better chance of grabbing a quality player.  You just have to nail the pick.

[Larry for 3]

http://grantland.com/features/nba-draft-crapshoot-repick-1995/

he mentions that flip and other teams might not want a lotto pick because they're scared of being responsible for a drafting a bust. Also has a large study of all drafts and chance of drafting a star. Basically its a crapshoot, later picks around 9 have yielded more stars than picks 2-3 which means nothing but there's a lot in this article mentioning how random the draft is.

I think its a lot of b.s.   

Trust your scouting department.  This is their job.  Work out these guys & make your judgements.    If you're scared because of the possible bust factor, you shouldn't be doing this job. 

I do agree that history has proven the draft to be a crapshoot but its still better to have a lottery pick that not.  Better chance of grabbing a quality player.  You just have to nail the pick.

The point is every team can make bad picks, it's that much of a crapshoot, good scouting or not. Heck, we drafted Fab Melo & Giddens. If you want to go further,  Jeff Green was drafted 5th. I understand he was bait for Ray, but as the 5th pick what's he really become? Not even an All-Star player, and that's the point, you never really know what these guys will become. Chances are just as great if not greater that 6 & 17 will be not be even as good as Jeff Green, no matter what experts say. So everybody who says we shouldn't trade picks for proven players I don't get, you always go with the proven player, in this case Love. Too bad Flip doesn't want our picks.

[Waew]

Green gets a bad wrap. At #5, you can still draft a bust. Green is a quality rotation player and 4th option, 6th man for Sure. Is that bad to draft at #5? I dont think so. Better than drafting the milicics and morrisons of the world.

[Donoghus]

http://grantland.com/features/nba-draft-crapshoot-repick-1995/

he mentions that flip and other teams might not want a lotto pick because they're scared of being responsible for a drafting a bust. Also has a large study of all drafts and chance of drafting a star. Basically its a crapshoot, later picks around 9 have yielded more stars than picks 2-3 which means nothing but there's a lot in this article mentioning how random the draft is.

I think its a lot of b.s.   

Trust your scouting department.  This is their job.  Work out these guys & make your judgements.    If you're scared because of the possible bust factor, you shouldn't be doing this job. 

I do agree that history has proven the draft to be a crapshoot but its still better to have a lottery pick that not.  Better chance of grabbing a quality player.  You just have to nail the pick.

The point is every team can make bad picks, it's that much of a crapshoot, good scouting or not. Heck, we drafted Fab Melo & Giddens. If you want to go further,  Jeff Green was drafted 5th. I understand he was bait for Ray, but as the 5th pick what's he really become? Not even an All-Star player, and that's the point, you never really know what these guys will become. Chances are just as great if not greater that 6 & 17 will be not be even as good as Jeff Green, no matter what experts say. So everybody who says we shouldn't trade picks for proven players I don't get, you always go with the proven player, in this case Love. Too bad Flip doesn't want our picks.

I realize everyone can make bad picks. 

You still shouldn't be scared to make a lottery pick and you sure as heck shouldn't be trying to trade out of a lottery pick because you're scared of the "bust" factor. 

[D.o.s.]

What if I told you this wasn?t an aberration? What if I told you that, other than the no. 1 overall spot, your draft position matters less than we thought? What if I told you that tanking was overrated, and that Philly?s 2014 tanknado masterpiece might have been a waste of time?

Then I'd guess you'd probably have spent some time on CelticsBlog.

[Jailan34]

http://grantland.com/features/nba-draft-crapshoot-repick-1995/

he mentions that flip and other teams might not want a lotto pick because they're scared of being responsible for a drafting a bust. Also has a large study of all drafts and chance of drafting a star. Basically its a crapshoot, later picks around 9 have yielded more stars than picks 2-3 which means nothing but there's a lot in this article mentioning how random the draft is.

I think its a lot of b.s.   

Trust your scouting department.  This is their job.  Work out these guys & make your judgements.    If you're scared because of the possible bust factor, you shouldn't be doing this job. 

I do agree that history has proven the draft to be a crapshoot but its still better to have a lottery pick that not.  Better chance of grabbing a quality player.  You just have to nail the pick.

The point is every team can make bad picks, it's that much of a crapshoot, good scouting or not. Heck, we drafted Fab Melo & Giddens. If you want to go further,  Jeff Green was drafted 5th. I understand he was bait for Ray, but as the 5th pick what's he really become? Not even an All-Star player, and that's the point, you never really know what these guys will become. Chances are just as great if not greater that 6 & 17 will be not be even as good as Jeff Green, no matter what experts say. So everybody who says we shouldn't trade picks for proven players I don't get, you always go with the proven player, in this case Love. Too bad Flip doesn't want our picks.

This is only true if every draft class was created equal, except they're not.

[Section301]

http://grantland.com/features/nba-draft-crapshoot-repick-1995/

he mentions that flip and other teams might not want a lotto pick because they're scared of being responsible for a drafting a bust. Also has a large study of all drafts and chance of drafting a star. Basically its a crapshoot, later picks around 9 have yielded more stars than picks 2-3 which means nothing but there's a lot in this article mentioning how random the draft is.

I think its a lot of b.s.   

Trust your scouting department.  This is their job.  Work out these guys & make your judgements.    If you're scared because of the possible bust factor, you shouldn't be doing this job. 

I do agree that history has proven the draft to be a crapshoot but its still better to have a lottery pick that not.  Better chance of grabbing a quality player.  You just have to nail the pick.

The point is every team can make bad picks, it's that much of a crapshoot, good scouting or not. Heck, we drafted Fab Melo & Giddens. If you want to go further,  Jeff Green was drafted 5th. I understand he was bait for Ray, but as the 5th pick what's he really become? Not even an All-Star player, and that's the point, you never really know what these guys will become. Chances are just as great if not greater that 6 & 17 will be not be even as good as Jeff Green, no matter what experts say. So everybody who says we shouldn't trade picks for proven players I don't get, you always go with the proven player, in this case Love. Too bad Flip doesn't want our picks.

Yes, always taken the proven player.  Like when we got rid of that unproven kid, Joe Johnson, and got back proven players like Delk and Rogers for that deep run in the playoffs.  Or when we dumped that unproven kid, Chauncey Billlups, and got back that proven player, Kenny Anderson, for another spate of mediocrity. 

It's not a universal rule.  Sometimes the proven player is just good enough to make you not quite good enough.   Love is not getting this team back to the finals.

[LilRip]

Someone linked me to some really neat bar graphs showing how each pick did over the last 30 years. I forget the link now but i remember it showing that historically, if you select first overall, odds are you'll get a really good player. I'm talking multiple time all-star, and most of the MVP's of this league were drafted first overall. Historically, drafting in the top 5 gets you a really high quality player as well. Then there's a drop off from 6-10, and so on and so forth.

I also don't buy this whole "scared to draft". If these GMs were scared to the point of inaction, they should just quit.

[Future Celtics Owner]

http://grantland.com/features/nba-draft-crapshoot-repick-1995/

he mentions that flip and other teams might not want a lotto pick because they're scared of being responsible for a drafting a bust. Also has a large study of all drafts and chance of drafting a star. Basically its a crapshoot, later picks around 9 have yielded more stars than picks 2-3 which means nothing but there's a lot in this article mentioning how random the draft is.

I think its a lot of b.s.   

Trust your scouting department.  This is their job.  Work out these guys & make your judgements.    If you're scared because of the possible bust factor, you shouldn't be doing this job. 

I do agree that history has proven the draft to be a crapshoot but its still better to have a lottery pick that not.  Better chance of grabbing a quality player.  You just have to nail the pick.

Also there have been so many mistakes and blunders by GM's I can not help but think they study them to try not to repeat.