The Last 6 Drafts

[nostar]

So I was curious what the top-6 picks looked like in the last few drafts. I started from 2008 and used all the top-6 selections from 2008-2013.

I factored in their draft placement and the surrounding players to determine which category each player fell in to. For instance, OJ Mayo doesn't seem like a  bust but when you consider that Westbrook and Love both were picked after him it puts a different light on it. Here is how I broke it down:

Star
1   Derrick Rose
4   Russell Westbrook
5   Kevin Love
1   Blake Griffin
3   James Harden
1   John Wall
5   DeMarcus Cousins
1   Kyrie Irving
1   Anthony Davis
6   Damian Lillard

Role Players
5   Ricky Rubio
3   Derrick Favors
5   Jonas Valančiūnas
3   Enes Kanter
4   Tristan Thompson
6   Danilo Gallinari
4   Tyreke Evans

Bust
2   Michael Beasley
3   O. J. Mayo
2   Hasheem Thabeet
6   Jonny Flynn
2   Evan Turner
4   Wesley Johnson
6   Ekpe Udoh
2   Derrick Williams
6   Jan Vesel?

Too Soon To Tell
3   Bradley Beal
2   Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
3   Dion Waiters
5   Thomas Robinson   
1   Anthony Bennett
2   Victor Oladipo   
3   Otto Porter   
4   Cody Zeller   
5   Alex Len   
6   Nerlens Noel

So statistically about 28% of the guys haven't played enough (or well enough) to make a determination on. Yeah Oladipo showed promise and Beal is doing well in Washington. We can certainly agree neither was on Lillard's level last season. The thing is we don't know if they will be.

Another 28% of the picks in the top 6 went on to become stars, or even superstars. It should be noted that 50% of those stars were picked #1 overall and only one was picked at #6.  25% of the guys have been busts. I know Turner and Mayo have both had moderate success in the league but relative to their draft position and their potential they are busts. That draft was actually just atrocious. I can barely count 10 guys in the draft who are worth their salaries. 10/60 is just awful. I had to go back to the 2000 draft to find one as week. 2013 might be as bad but there hasn't been enough time to tell.

Anyway, 20% of the guys drafted top-6 over the past 6 years have become role players. Valančiūnas and Favors might be at the top of the group but neither has lit the world on fire. I hesitated to put Rubio in this category because he is just a miserable shooter but he's not a bust. He's close though.

This is all just to say that historically we have about a 50% chance at picking a rotation level player or better. Since this draft is widely considered to be very good that percentage is likely higher. If you factor in that the last 2 draft classes are largely untested (and uncategorized) and use past classes to categorize them our percentage goes up to around 75-80%. Draft class being strong probably bumps that up to between 80-85%. Using this fuzzy math one could argue that 5 out of the top 6 picks will have successful NBA campaigns.

Call me crazy but I like those odds.

[Waew]

I think for Bradley Beal its safe to have him as a role player at least, his stats are excellent.

[fairweatherfan]

Yeah, but we're not getting a "Top 6" pick, we're getting the #6 pick.  The success rate of #1 or #2 picks doesn't really tell us anything about what our pick is likely to do.  Using similar logic you could say assessing the total success of 1st round picks would be a good gauge of what the Spurs' #30 pick is likely to do. 

It'd probably be more predictive to look at the players typically available at #6 over the years, and how they did.  Looking down the draft board from our spot instead of up it.

[Alleyoopster]

Yeah, but we're not getting a "Top 6" pick, we're getting the #6 pick.  The success rate of #1 or #2 picks doesn't really tell us anything about what our pick is likely to do.  Using similar logic you could say assessing the total success of 1st round picks would be a good gauge of what the Spurs' #30 pick is likely to do. 

It'd probably be more predictive to look at the players typically available at #6 over the years, and how they did.  Looking down the draft board from our spot instead of up it.

I agree with much of what you say and this year's #6 is further complicated with Embiid's and Randall's injury status.  Are they legitimate 1-6 material?