Why I doubt the Timberolves are really considering a Golden State trade for Love

[chambers]

I think the potential of this happening has been blown out of the water.
Realistically, Flip Saunders is too smart to give up a potential rebuilding deal from the Celtics for a Golden State package of Klay Thompson and David Lee.(Or Barnes too).

By seeing these reports, I actually think that Danny hasn't offered anything decent to Golden State yet, and Flip is trying to put as much crap out there as he can to wedge some more stuff out of the Celtics.

Keep in mind a Celtics package means the Wolves own 2015 pick comes back to them from Phoenix as a likely top 5 pick in 2015. (they traded their own 2015 pick to the Suns but it's top 12 protected).

Klay Thompson. Why wouldn't Flip want Klay? He's Curry's wingman. He's a great three point shooter. He's about to turn 25 years old. His defense has gotten better this season.

Okay...
Lets compare Klay Thompson to Kevin Martin, who the Wolves currently have.

2014 NBA season:

Klay's    PER  14.3
K Mart's PER  16.3

Klay 3 point shooting     41.7 %
K Mart 3 point shooting  38.7%

Klay Offensive rating 108
Klay Defensive rating 106

K Mart Offensive rating 110
K Mart Defensive rating 109

Thompson's team mates Iguadala and Bogut are going to sway team defense in Klay's favor, although I do agree Klay is a good defender. Not spectacular, but good.

Thompson's problem is that he doesn't dribble penetrate, and that's his major downfall and why he'll unlikely be anything more than Kevin Martin with better defense but less dribble penetration.
He attempts 2 free throws a game.

Warriors should trade him now while his value is high. He's over rated because he's played next to Curry on offense and next to Iggy and Bogut on defense.
A team like Minny with a horrid shooting point guard will mean Thompson's 3 point shooting gets iced statistically- teams will flood Thompson, whereas they can't do that vs GSW because of Curry's shooting ability.

It makes me laugh seeing reports of 'posturing' from the Warriors to include Klay because it's the perfect time for GWS to unload Thompson before he demands $10 million+ and they
a) can't afford it with Curry, Iggy, Bogut and hopefully an opted in Love.
b)already realize he's not worth that much as a 3 point shooter and above average defender.(strong role player)
c) they get Kevin Love in return.

I seriously doubt that the Wolves would be considering Klay Thompson as the centrepiece of a deal. They get Barnes too? Wow! Does everyone know Barnes stinks? Thompson's a solid role player like Kevin Martin but that's all he is.

Flip Saunders and Glen Taylor basically can't make the Wolves a playoff team. They don't have the assets. Their two options to make them a playoff team are:
Option 1) Keep Love and put better players around him.
Option 2) blow it up and build correctly around Rubio and Dieng. I would dump Rubio in a rebuild because he sucks too, but that's not as important because they'll need to fill salary somewhere.

We all know that option 1 above is not happening.

If people think that a team of

Rubio
Klay Thompson
Shabazz Muhammed
David Lee
Pekovic.

with Dieng and a few mid first rounders off the bench,

is even sniffing the playoffs, you're delusional.

That team wins...maybe 35 games? Gets the Wolves a nice top 12 pick next year though- but nothing good enough to trade to other teams for a star like a top 5 pick would get you.
And then you decide if you want to overpay Klay to stay after his 12 month holiday in Minny.

At that point there will be an overpaid Klay, an overpaid Rubio, an overpaid (expiring) Lee and Pekovic.
Hopefully Shabazz becomes a good player, hopefully Dieng does the same.

And on and on the mediocrity bus continues on its way through Minnesota, while Minny fans wish they had some assets or could make a trade for a star somehow...coming to the conclusion that it's time to blow it up and collect assets in 2019- something they should have done in 2014. I don't care if they haven't made the playoffs for x amount of years.
They won't make the playoffs anyway. Not with the Bulls package, not with the Warriors package. The only way they make the playoffs is by building from the ground up.

[joepatsfan]

Yes, 100% agree and this is what I said in other threads:

Flip Saunders is way off if he wants a package of Lee/Thompson and a Warriors pick for Klove and Martin.

Lee and Thompson are combined worse than Love-Martin (mainly because of Love). The Warriors pick will be nothing better than a early 20s selection.

Lee/Thompson will give the Warriors less wins if anything and maybe keep them even. If the deal includes Lee/Thompson/Barnes then ok, I see where he's going with it but Lee and Klay will make them even if not worse and the pick isn't close to valuable.

We can offer #6/#17 and BKN picks in the future which is probably be lottery picks by then and Sullinger, who I really like but he's never going to turn into some All-NBA guy, just a 16-10 at best, can replace Love at the 4 for the time being.. Olynyk is another piece that could turn into something decent as well.

I honestly think Saunders is just blowing smoke right now. He knows that Klay/Lee doesn't put Minny anywhere and they wont even resign in Minny too. Like others have said, this puts them right where they were and maybe worse because Klay and Lee aren't sticking around...

Saunders knows that the Celtics have the best assets to offer but he and the owner cannot stand that they may give their best player to Boston again for the second time in 7 years. Their in denial over there folks.

Unless Minny gets Lee/Klay/Barnes and a 1st (which is highly unlikely), then the Celtics are the frontrunners or Minny just keeps him

[incoherent]

Thank you for writing this up, tommy point.

[Hawkeye199]

One thing people forget is that the celtics are on the other conference of the wolves. If I am the wolves and I really want to win wouldn't it make more sense for me to trade my star to the east.

[Eddie20]

A little more analyzation on the Thompson/Martin debate...

Some snags in the Warriors? Kevin Love talks: They don?t want to take back Kevin Martin? AND they don?t want to include Klay Thompson
Posted on June 20, 2014 by Tim Kawakami

A few hours ago an NBA source insisted to me that the Warriors flat-out will not agree to any of the proposals Minnesota is currently suggesting in the Kevin Love discussions.

Not now, not in a day, not in 400 days.

The first stumbling block: The Warriors are making it clear to everyone in the league, including Minnesota president Flip Saunders, that they very much do not want to part with Klay Thompson, the key part of any Minnesota demand.

Second big stumbling block: The Warriors have zero desire to take back expensive, no-defense shooting guard Kevin Martin in the deal, the source said.


?Note: David Lee has to be part of this deal and both sides have generally agreed to this in the informal talks. He?s a productive offensive player and rebounder and Minnesota knows Lee?s salary must be included to make any deal with the Warriors work.

?Also, the Warriors would have no need for another high-salary power forward if they received Love.

?Lee is not the problem. He?s not a value-add to the deal, but he?s not considered a stumbling block, by either team.

?The problem issues are everything else that would have to go into any Warriors-Timberwolves deal.

I don?t know if the Martin element is non-negotiable for either side (Minnesota insisting and/or the Warriors blanching), but it sounds like, at the very least, the Warriors would need more enticement (beyond Love) to consider taking Martin back.

That might be where the talk about the #13 overall pick plays into it.
Or hypothetically, Minnesota absorbing Marreese Speights or something like that.

But the combination of taking back Martin while moving Thompson? that might be the true non-starter here for the Warriors, that shooting guard give-and-take.

If my source is anywhere close on this?and I believe he is?the Warriors won?t even consider putting Thompson into any deal that includes them taking Martin, period.

You see, Martin has three years, $22.2M left on his contract.
And also, he?s not very good?one of the worst defensive players in the league and a scorer who doesn?t do much of anything else offensively.

I know the PER-obsessives believe Martin is still quite good (he had a better PER than Thompson this season), but this is almost certainly not an accurate overall view of these two players? true value.

Actually, Martin is terrible and getting worse?if Minnesota moves on from him, it?d be the fourth team that did so, quite happily?and as he moves deeper into his 30s, this kind of zero-defense, all-shoot player typically takes a career nose-dive right about here.

A question for the PER-obsessives: Just because PER doesn?t factor in defense, that means defense doesn?t really matter? No. That would be the wrong way to look at this.

That?s my opinion and that?s apparently the opinion of several in the Warriors front office, especially at Martin?s salary number.

I think PER is a great overall OFFENSIVE stat, but it?s not the be-all, end-all, nor did my friend John Hollinger come up with it to be the be-all, end-all.

Anyway, the important thing is that the Warriors and Minnesota are dancing around each other?s requests and desires and so far they don?t have enough of a common ground?

-The Warriors want it to be structured around Lee + Harrison Barnes for Love.
-And Minnesota wants it structured around Lee + Klay Thompson + other Warriors items for Love + Martin.

You can figure there are many other potential pieces either team might try to get, such as: Minnesota?s #13 pick, the Warriors? 2015 first-round pick, Draymond Green, etc?

There are all sorts of different combinations. And nobody knows yet when Saunders will do this deal and what it?d take for him to do it? and what the best offer will be at that point.

But for right now, whether you consider it posturing or just real ground-in stances, the Warriors and Timberwolves seem a bit stalemated, mostly on the Kevin Martin/Klay Thompson issue.

Yes, the Warriors are extremely reluctant to break up the Thompson/Stephen Curry back court, especially because of the defensive responsibilities Thompson carries and his relative youth (he?s 24).

Also, I?ve heard that Steve Kerr absolutely wants to coach the Curry/Thompson back court? he?s a fan of getting Love, of course, but it?s the idea of getting Love without giving up Thompson that really excites the Warriors? decision-makers. If that?s possible.

What happens if the Warriors can?t get Love?

There are a few three-point shooting power forwards that might interest Kerr. I could see the Warriors exploring what it?d take to land Phoenix?s Channing Frye, who has a $6.8M player option for next season and has until Tuesday to exercise it? or decide to become an unrestricted free agent.

Frye was a University of Arizona teammate of Andre Iguodala?s and, like Iguodala, is represented by Rob Pelinka. The last time Frye switched teams, he signed with the Suns in July 2009? when their GM was Steve Kerr.

* Another NBA source said that the Warriors are leery of trading away their 2015 first-round pick because they don?t have a No. 1 this year and they?ve traded away their 2017 pick, which means they can?t trade either their 2016 or 2018 picks.

You give up your 2015 pick, you?ve locked yourself out of being able to maneuver in the draft for five years.

OK, that?s the latest update. There will be many more.

[MBunge]

Great analysis of the Minny-GSW situation.  The only thing missing is the explanation of why Martin is particularly awful for GSW.  Curry is a terrible defender.  There's no way you can put him and Martin on the floor together and contend in the West.

Boston could swallow Martin as long as the keep Avery and bring KM off the bench.

Mike

[GreenWarrior]

I've been saying this for a while. Minn. would be a bunch of idiots not to take our deal, they'll look even worse if they accept someone elses offer so they can shoot for the 8 seed and fall short, and they end up in a worse spot than they are now in 2 yr's.

[Roy H.]

One disagreement: Thompson is a much better defender than Martin. He's more durable and less soft, too.

[chambers]

One disagreement: Thompson is a much better defender than Martin. He's more durable and less soft, too.

I agree 100%, and I don't think Klay is a great defender, he's good/solid. Martin is terrible.
But Martin gets far less defensive abuse in a Golden State defense with Iggy and Bogut behind him.
I wonder how Thompson fairs in a Minny system with Lee, Brewer and Pekovic behind him?

I will say that Martin's dribble drive game and iso shot creation is way better than Thompson's though.

It still amazes me that Thompson only gets to the line twice a game.

[chambers]

Great analysis of the Minny-GSW situation.  The only thing missing is the explanation of why Martin is particularly awful for GSW.  Curry is a terrible defender.  There's no way you can put him and Martin on the floor together and contend in the West.

Boston could swallow Martin as long as the keep Avery and bring KM off the bench.

Mike

I'd say Martin would be better in GSW than he is in Minny because the help defenders on the Warriors will be better.
He'll also get a better shot selection on the Warriors (just as Klay benefits from) because Curry causes so much stress on opposing defenses with his own three point shot.

Seems an emphasis of this 'rumor' is that Minny would send Martin to Golden State as well.
I wonder if Ainge is refusing to take Martin back with Love.

[chambers]

A little more analyzation on the Thompson/Martin debate...

Some snags in the Warriors? Kevin Love talks: They don?t want to take back Kevin Martin? AND they don?t want to include Klay Thompson
Posted on June 20, 2014 by Tim Kawakami

A few hours ago an NBA source insisted to me that the Warriors flat-out will not agree to any of the proposals Minnesota is currently suggesting in the Kevin Love discussions.

Not now, not in a day, not in 400 days.

The first stumbling block: The Warriors are making it clear to everyone in the league, including Minnesota president Flip Saunders, that they very much do not want to part with Klay Thompson, the key part of any Minnesota demand.

Second big stumbling block: The Warriors have zero desire to take back expensive, no-defense shooting guard Kevin Martin in the deal, the source said.


?Note: David Lee has to be part of this deal and both sides have generally agreed to this in the informal talks. He?s a productive offensive player and rebounder and Minnesota knows Lee?s salary must be included to make any deal with the Warriors work.

?Also, the Warriors would have no need for another high-salary power forward if they received Love.

?Lee is not the problem. He?s not a value-add to the deal, but he?s not considered a stumbling block, by either team.

?The problem issues are everything else that would have to go into any Warriors-Timberwolves deal.

I don?t know if the Martin element is non-negotiable for either side (Minnesota insisting and/or the Warriors blanching), but it sounds like, at the very least, the Warriors would need more enticement (beyond Love) to consider taking Martin back.

That might be where the talk about the #13 overall pick plays into it.
Or hypothetically, Minnesota absorbing Marreese Speights or something like that.

But the combination of taking back Martin while moving Thompson? that might be the true non-starter here for the Warriors, that shooting guard give-and-take.

If my source is anywhere close on this?and I believe he is?the Warriors won?t even consider putting Thompson into any deal that includes them taking Martin, period.

You see, Martin has three years, $22.2M left on his contract.
And also, he?s not very good?one of the worst defensive players in the league and a scorer who doesn?t do much of anything else offensively.

I know the PER-obsessives believe Martin is still quite good (he had a better PER than Thompson this season), but this is almost certainly not an accurate overall view of these two players? true value.

Actually, Martin is terrible and getting worse?if Minnesota moves on from him, it?d be the fourth team that did so, quite happily?and as he moves deeper into his 30s, this kind of zero-defense, all-shoot player typically takes a career nose-dive right about here.

A question for the PER-obsessives: Just because PER doesn?t factor in defense, that means defense doesn?t really matter? No. That would be the wrong way to look at this.

That?s my opinion and that?s apparently the opinion of several in the Warriors front office, especially at Martin?s salary number.

I think PER is a great overall OFFENSIVE stat, but it?s not the be-all, end-all, nor did my friend John Hollinger come up with it to be the be-all, end-all.

Anyway, the important thing is that the Warriors and Minnesota are dancing around each other?s requests and desires and so far they don?t have enough of a common ground?

-The Warriors want it to be structured around Lee + Harrison Barnes for Love.
-And Minnesota wants it structured around Lee + Klay Thompson + other Warriors items for Love + Martin.

You can figure there are many other potential pieces either team might try to get, such as: Minnesota?s #13 pick, the Warriors? 2015 first-round pick, Draymond Green, etc?

There are all sorts of different combinations. And nobody knows yet when Saunders will do this deal and what it?d take for him to do it? and what the best offer will be at that point.

But for right now, whether you consider it posturing or just real ground-in stances, the Warriors and Timberwolves seem a bit stalemated, mostly on the Kevin Martin/Klay Thompson issue.

Yes, the Warriors are extremely reluctant to break up the Thompson/Stephen Curry back court, especially because of the defensive responsibilities Thompson carries and his relative youth (he?s 24).

Also, I?ve heard that Steve Kerr absolutely wants to coach the Curry/Thompson back court? he?s a fan of getting Love, of course, but it?s the idea of getting Love without giving up Thompson that really excites the Warriors? decision-makers. If that?s possible.

What happens if the Warriors can?t get Love?

There are a few three-point shooting power forwards that might interest Kerr. I could see the Warriors exploring what it?d take to land Phoenix?s Channing Frye, who has a $6.8M player option for next season and has until Tuesday to exercise it? or decide to become an unrestricted free agent.

Frye was a University of Arizona teammate of Andre Iguodala?s and, like Iguodala, is represented by Rob Pelinka. The last time Frye switched teams, he signed with the Suns in July 2009? when their GM was Steve Kerr.

* Another NBA source said that the Warriors are leery of trading away their 2015 first-round pick because they don?t have a No. 1 this year and they?ve traded away their 2017 pick, which means they can?t trade either their 2016 or 2018 picks.

You give up your 2015 pick, you?ve locked yourself out of being able to maneuver in the draft for five years.

OK, that?s the latest update. There will be many more.

I agree with most of this, and I agree that Thompson is a better player than Martin overall, because of his solid defense and the fact that he's 7 years younger. I guess the PER and other stats just show that he's not that special and in a vacuum he's overhyped because of his team mates.
What's not being pointed out in this summary is that the Warriors will likely lose Klay Thompson to free agency at the end of the 2014-15 season, unless they dump David Lee and Bogut.

Remember it's in the Warriors interest to start mentioning Thompson as the focal point of big trades.
We've now seen Klay mentioned as the 'center piece' in a Kevin Love trade, and now apparently the Lakers want to give up the #7 pick for Klay as well. What a coincidence.
Does anyone really believe that Mitch Kupchack would give up the #7 pick for a 3 and D shooting guard with a PER of 14.3...after he rolled the dice on Dwight Howard? Or would Danny Ainge be that stupid to deal the 6th pick for Klay Thompson in 2014?

Unfortunately no one wants either of Lee or Bogut without Klay attached, and they don't have any picks to make any Lee/Bogut dumping deals any sweeter.

Just my opinion/speculation but breaking these moves down layer by layer tends to bring the bull *&% floating to the top via logic.

[Tr1boy]

The warriors have to make this deal as they cant afford to keep thompson and lee. Then curry has to resigned

This way you just worry about loves next deal. Better for a balanced lineup also

If the wolves take the celts offer they will start another long rebuild. That means trade pek, rubio and likely not get the 1:1 value back

The celts package to me is the wolves last resort and they will only take such a deal by the last hours of the 2015 trade deadline.

[MBunge]

The celts package to me is the wolves last resort and they will only take such a deal by the last hours of the 2015 trade deadline.

If Flip thinks Boston's offer will be there at the trade deadline, he's a moron.  At that point, Ainge is either going to be focused on moving Rondo or the 2015 offseason when he can just sign Love as a free agent.

Mike

[SHAQATTACK]

 I think .....Kerr is demanding to have Love.

He is no fool.

Yup,GS is going to have to resign all those expensive young rookies soon off their cheapy contract s and Klay is going to,want a Kings Ransom to play ...anywhere

I think Klay will be a Laker one day......

Doesn't all the talent go there?

[cman88]

lets be honest, Danny hasnt even given Flip his best offer. picks 6, 17 and Olynyk/sullinger? and maybe our pick next year? that is peanuts....and he knows it. he wont put his best offer out there until the last hour.

you can throw in any combination of the brookly picks, the clippers pick, bradley, green. and make the offer more enticing.

Danny knows how to play this game, and hopefully it all works out for the best