Which team will offer a 6M/yr contract to Avery Bradley this summer?

[#1P4P]

"A glorified 3 and D player" that is above average at 3 (3P% 39.5% NBA average is approx. 37%) and elite D (despite his avoidance of defending the full length of the court, he is one of the best defenders at the deepest position in the NBA) at 23 years old.

Funny that Bledsoe is mentioned when he's a comparable player that has never been able to play a full season of starter minutes.

Track record is great, but potential is the trump card. Joel Embiid is being #1 off of potential, not track record. If it were off of track record, Doug McDermott would be the #1 pick, but he isn't. It's like the rumors of Ainge offering Rondo to GS for Curry when Curry still had his ankle issues... Why would he do that when Curry's track record up to then was of chronic ankle injuries?

Avery's injury history is going to cause him to have to accept a $5-7M contract, but the track record and potential is there and the kid is going to be well worth it.

[Theodor]

These all seem possible:
Orlando, if Afflalo is dealt.
Utah, if Hayward proves too expensive to keep.
Milwaukee could use an upgrade over Mayo.
Detroit has the cap space, and Bradley would be a very good fit there.
Houston has cap space, and Bradley would be an interesting complement to Harden.
Phoenix, if Bledsoe proves too expensive to keep.
Philadelphia has cap space. A Bradley-MCW backcourt would be quite good.

From what I read recently:

Orlando Magic:
Rob Hennigan has stated that they don't want to spend much money this summer. They are focusing at 2015. They have chance to land a guard at the draft night (such as Exam). Even if Afflalo is dealt, they'll rely on their rookies next season.

Philadelphia 76ers:
They are in the similar position with the Magic. Tend to develop their rookies. Don?t want to pursue the veteran who wants a big/long contract.

Houston Rockets:
They will try to go after those big names (Melo, Love?etc.) with cap space. That?s why they intend to dump Asik/Lin without anything return. Role players are not their priority.

Milwaukee Bucks:
The status of the Bucks is a little complex. They have new owners (with lovely daughter) and their front office haven?t get full trust from their new owners. They have to play the save way this summer. They won?t gamble on those potential or nondurable players. Also, the owners want to land some franchise players instead of more role players.

So there are three teams left. Utah (if Hayward walks away), Phoenix (if Bledsoe walk away), and Detroit. AB might have some chance if Lance Stephenson played poorly this season. But Lance?s price is still ahead of AB despite of his immaturity during the playoffs.

If Lance goes to Detroit this summer, The Pacers might turn to AB. But without sign-and-trade, the offer won't be better than the Mid-level contract. The Pacers also have other choice such as Shaun Livingston. If AB ask for a big contract, teams can easily turn their head.

In brief, AB is forced to accept a bad position in the summer market. There will be no bidding war for him. And if he waits and stays too long in the market, he will find his price drops dramatically.

[Theodor]

What should Ainge do if AB's market opportunity is not good?

1. Offer him a contract immediately after Day 1 of summer market.
2. Stay with QO and match any offer sheet.
3. Seek sign-and-trade for AB.


1. Offer him a contract.

The contract shouldn't be higher than 6M/yr.

Example:
A. Five years $30 million with team option.
B. Four years $23 million. (start with 14-15 5.17M)
C. Four years $20 million with player option.

I leave three years contracts aside due to the posibility of lockout at the summer of 2017,


2. Stay with QO and match any offer sheet.

At the end of day, we might sign him back at something like two years 9M contract.


3. Seek sign-and-trade for AB.

A. Trade for another SG

Example: Hayward-AB exchange.

B. As part of the big trades

Example:

Pack AB with Gerald Wallace to the Raptors for John Salmons, Landry Fields, Steve Novak, two future 1st round draft picks, one future 2nd round draft pick.

And then pack John Salmons, Keith Bogans, Kris Humphries (S&T), Chris Johnson, Chris Babb, two future 1st round draft picks to the Knicks for you know who.

C. Trade for TE

Example:

Pack AB with Gerald Wallace to the Hornets for Gerald Henderson, Bismack Biyombo, one future draft pick.

[D.o.s.]

Even if he's often injured i think he deserve more than $6m/yr. He should be offered at least $8m/yr. He showed some potential sincerely it would be crazy to let him go & see him becoming a beast like Joe Johnson.

That's a very enthusiastic prediction, and way too much money to give to him. That's the kind of bidding against yourself that roasts bad GMs.

While it might be too much, understand that any GM wanting Bradley has to bid against Ainge's willingness to match an offer sheet.  If you want him, you have to offer somethinng more than Ainge will pay.  I think Ainge's walk away point is somewhere between $7-8 million.  Restricted free agency for some players can hold down salaries, since no one wants to waste their time negotiating with a player who's offer sheet will be matched.  But for some players you wind up getting more than you otherwise would have, since a team just makes an offer to scare away the possibility of an offer sheet being matched.

At the end of the day, I think Bradley isn't unique enough for this to happen, and restricted free agency will hold down his price.  I'm fairly sure Danny thinks that too.  But there's a real chance that someone pays a lot to keep Danny from matching.  Maybe it will be too much, but it's definitely not "bidding against yourself."

That's true, but I didn't read the first post that way -- I read it as the C's should offer him at least $8/M a year, not another team.

[#1P4P]

One team that hasn't been mentioned are the Lakers. They are flush with cap space and have an SG that can handle the ball. Depending on their respective cap situations Chicago, OKC, LAC, Houston, Detroit, Minnesota, and Miami are teams that would enjoy having an Avery Bradley. Ainge is probably going to match anything up to $7M.

[LarBrd33]

I think he's a nice role player who some day can fit the Derrick Fisher role on a contender.

Like mentioned above... he could be the default PG on a Laker team featuring Kobe and Kevin Love.

[slamtheking]

I'd offer 3 years for $12 mill.  wouldn't go higher than 3 years for $15 if it was to match someone else.  higher than that -- bon voyage

[hpantazo]

I think he's a nice role player who some day can fit the Derrick Fisher role on a contender.

Like mentioned above... he could be the default PG on a Laker team featuring Kobe and Kevin Love.

Fisher made a career of being a smart player and hitting big shots, Bradley is not even close to that.

[Rondo9]

I think he's a nice role player who some day can fit the Derrick Fisher role on a contender.

Like mentioned above... he could be the default PG on a Laker team featuring Kobe and Kevin Love.

Fisher made a career of being a smart player and hitting big shots, Bradley is not even close to that.

Yeah Bradley can be better than that by providing elite defense and being a better shooter than Fisher.

[wdleehi]

My answer?

None.

Bradley has been injured too much for teams to seriously take him on.

I very strongly disagree.

There have been a LOT of players over the past few years who have had significant injury history in the league, and yet have still been signed to big contacts afterwards. 

As extreme examples just look at guys like Eric Gordon, Monta Ellis, Rudy Gay...those guys have all missed quite a number of games to injury over the years, but still got significant contracts afterwards.

For more extreme examples look at guys like Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, Andrew Bynum.  These guys basically had mutiple major season / career ending injuries, yet teams still took significant gambles with big contracts afterwards. 

If teams like a particular player, they'll pay the money.  Sure they will factor injury history in to the equation, but that doesn't immediately kill the player's ability to get a good contact.  It's only after you get to Roy / Oden / Bynum level (after their 3rd or so combacks) that people are going to really get scared off, and you'll have to take cheap deals to prove you aren't made of glass anymore.  Bradley is still young, and aside from his rookie year he has still played more games than he's missed each season.  He's not even close to the "unsignable" status of guys like the ones listed above.

And how many of those contracts were looked upon as positive after the fact?


And Bradley has never been considered on the same level as those players when they got those contracts.  (except on this site)

[hpantazo]

I think he's a nice role player who some day can fit the Derrick Fisher role on a contender.

Like mentioned above... he could be the default PG on a Laker team featuring Kobe and Kevin Love.

Fisher made a career of being a smart player and hitting big shots, Bradley is not even close to that.

Yeah Bradley can be better than that by providing elite defense and being a better shooter than Fisher.

If Bradley could be a better shooter than Fisher, he would make the all-star team. It's not happening. As for elite defense, I haven't seen it in the last two seasons.

He's an injury prone, offensively inept, undersized shooting guard. A decent bench player imo.

[Rondo9]

I think he's a nice role player who some day can fit the Derrick Fisher role on a contender.

Like mentioned above... he could be the default PG on a Laker team featuring Kobe and Kevin Love.

Fisher made a career of being a smart player and hitting big shots, Bradley is not even close to that.

Yeah Bradley can be better than that by providing elite defense and being a better shooter than Fisher.

If Bradley could be a better shooter than Fisher, he would make the all-star team. It's not happening. As for elite defense, I haven't seen it in the last two seasons.

He's an injury prone, offensively inept, undersized shooting guard. A decent bench player imo.

Bradley shot a decent percentage overall this year and his defense is still very good. He can start on teams, depending on the situation.

[Eddie20]

I think he's a nice role player who some day can fit the Derrick Fisher role on a contender.

Like mentioned above... he could be the default PG on a Laker team featuring Kobe and Kevin Love.

Fisher made a career of being a smart player and hitting big shots, Bradley is not even close to that.

Yeah Bradley can be better than that by providing elite defense and being a better shooter than Fisher.

If Bradley could be a better shooter than Fisher, he would make the all-star team. It's not happening. As for elite defense, I haven't seen it in the last two seasons.

He's an injury prone, offensively inept, undersized shooting guard. A decent bench player imo.

So all Fisher would need is a better shot and he could've been an all-star? Fisher has a career FG% of 39.9 (37.4 from 3's) and his season high in scoring was 13.3. At age 23, Bradley is coming off a season where he averaged 14.9 ppg and shot 43.8% from the field (39.5 from 3's).

[317]

i have a much better feeling about this then the Jeff Green contract. they were in similar situations in that very few other teams could even theoretically offer more then the full mid level. i dont see Danny outbidding himself again here. the fact that Bradly is a restricted free agent means his agent cant claim to have an offer for x $ unless he actually does. if Bradly were 3+ inches taller things would be different. as it is his height and thin frame severally limit his ability to guard the bigger SGs and even some big PGs like Derron Williams.

even without his injury history hes a limited player in his dribbling, passing and defensive match up options. he would make a very good match up defender off the bench, possibly starting against specific players in playoff series.

[chambers]

His qualifying offer is about 3.5 million.
He should command up to 4.5 million-5 million over 3 years at most. He's too injury prone and hasn't shown enough improvement to warrant a massive raise.
Great kid and great player, but more than 5 million for a kid like that on your cap is just suicide under the new CBA.