Woj confirms Love visit was for basketball reasons on Fox Sports

[KamikazeK]

I think waiting around for Love to come here in FA is a disaster waiting to happen.

[BballTim]

I'm sure it was for basketball reasons. That doesn't mean Love is even close to coming to the Celtics. Has anyone here tried to purchase real estate in a multiple-bid situation?

  It doesn't mean he's close to coming to Boston, but it's a good sign. I'd rather be a team where he checks out your city than one where he doesn't.

I'd rather be the city where he signs, and not the city which he uses to force the Timberwolves' management's hand.

  So would I. Do you have any evidence we're the latter and not the former?

[saltlover]

If Love really wants to sign here next year, would anyone on this board be willing to build our team this year so that we have cap space for him next year instead of trading for him? Keeping all of our assets and adding Love would make it a lot easier to build a team around him.

I agree with your second sentence, but Love will make more money by being traded this season, opting in, and extending with whatever team he lands on -- so not only will he and his agent push for that, I doubt he'll be willing to take a pay cut on what will be the largest contract of his career.

I may be misunderstanding what you're saying but I think you're incorrect on this.

Here are some scenarios, with salaries beginning in 2015, since this year's is given.  Contracts signed as a free agent in 2015 are based on the NBA's recent projection of a $66.5 million cap in 2015-2016, which leads to a max contract with a year one value of approximately $18.67 million.

1) Love is not traded, opts out, and signs elsewhere, or Love is traded, opts out, and signs elsewhere:

2015: $18.67 million
2016: $19.51 million
2017: $20.36 million
2018: $21.20 million
2019: Free Agent

4 Year Total: $79.74 million

2) Love is traded and signs an extension as part of the trade, after July 1st.

2015: $16.74 million (current option year)
2016: $17.50 million
2017: Free Agent

2 Year total: $34.24 million

3) Love is traded, and signs an extension with his new team six months after he is traded:

2015: $16.74 million (current option year)
2016: $18.0 million
2017: $19.26 million
2018: Free Agent

3 Year Total: $54.0 million

4) Love opts in for 2015, and then signs an extension (no earlier than the summer of 2015 -- this is what I think you're suggesting):

2015: $16.74 million
2016: $18.0 million
2017: $19.26 million
2018: $20.51 million

4 Year Total: $74.51 million

5) Love opts out, and signs a new contract with his current team after reaching free agency (whether this is Minnesota or a team to which he is traded):

2015: $18.67 million
2016: $20.07 million
2017: $21.48 million
2018: $22.88 million
2019: $24.28 million

5 Year Total: $107.38 million

In terms of dollars, Love would be forgoing about $2 million in 2015 if he didn't opt out, and more in the future as future salaries would tend to be based off his 2015 salary.  It simply makes no financial sense for Love to agree in advance to opt in to his contract, and it's why I don't expect him to do so.  About the only reason it makes financial sense for him to opt in is if the 2016-2017 salary cap is projected to rise substantially more than 7.5% from the 2015-2016 salary cap, and then he could test free agency in 2016.  This would allow his 2016 salary to be larger than in scenario 5, and if the cap increase is large enough, he could make up the lost income from 2015.  Still, 7.5% is a lot on its own, and exceeding 7.5% is still more unlikely, so I don't foresee that occurring.

[Casperian]

What intrigues me is that these players say, "All I want to do is win" but then they want max contracts. 

To quote a former POTUS:

It's the economy, stupid

Winning is money. You're known as a winner, your standing increases, you get better sponsorship deals, etc.

Kevin McHale still has a job in the NBA because he was a "winner".

[BballTim]

What intrigues me is that these players say, "All I want to do is win" but then they want max contracts. 

To quote a former POTUS:

It's the economy, stupid

Winning is money. You're known as a winner, your standing increases, you get better sponsorship deals, etc.

Kevin McHale still has a job in the NBA because he was a "winner".

  Kevin McHale still has a job because he knows a lot about basketball. He was doing a very good job in Minny until the owner's mouth cost him half a decade's worth of draft picks.

[Casperian]

What intrigues me is that these players say, "All I want to do is win" but then they want max contracts. 

To quote a former POTUS:

It's the economy, stupid

Winning is money. You're known as a winner, your standing increases, you get better sponsorship deals, etc.

Kevin McHale still has a job in the NBA because he was a "winner".

  Kevin McHale still has a job because he knows a lot about basketball. He was doing a very good job in Minny until the owner's mouth cost him half a decade's worth of draft picks.

Yeah, ignore the point and go off on a tangent.

[D.o.s.]

If Love really wants to sign here next year, would anyone on this board be willing to build our team this year so that we have cap space for him next year instead of trading for him? Keeping all of our assets and adding Love would make it a lot easier to build a team around him.

I agree with your second sentence, but Love will make more money by being traded this season, opting in, and extending with whatever team he lands on -- so not only will he and his agent push for that, I doubt he'll be willing to take a pay cut on what will be the largest contract of his career.

I may be misunderstanding what you're saying but I think you're incorrect on this.

[clipped for brevity]

Yeah, that was a mistake on my part -- I typed extending, but what I meant was staying with the team he's traded to, assuming he's traded this year.

So he's traded, opts in to the final year of his contract, then signing a five-year max in free agency with the same team two years from now. Which isn't extending in the CBA sense of the word. That was a slipup.

[Eja117]

Fox Sports TV last night from the show:

"Through my sources, I reported recently that Minnesota All-Star Kevin Love had a significant interest in the Boston Celtics when he becomes a free agent next summer. That's the reason he spent this weekend with his agent and personal trainer in the city getting a great sense of the sporting landscape."

"Love continues to maintain to Minnesota management that he wants a trade before next season or he's going to opt out and the organization will get nothing for him".

Good to hear. Just need Woj to add '..to the Celtics' on that 'wants a trade before next season'. 

Very good news indeed.

I'm glad it was confirmed it was for basketball reasons and not that he was here for the seafood.

[saltlover]

If Love really wants to sign here next year, would anyone on this board be willing to build our team this year so that we have cap space for him next year instead of trading for him? Keeping all of our assets and adding Love would make it a lot easier to build a team around him.

I agree with your second sentence, but Love will make more money by being traded this season, opting in, and extending with whatever team he lands on -- so not only will he and his agent push for that, I doubt he'll be willing to take a pay cut on what will be the largest contract of his career.

I may be misunderstanding what you're saying but I think you're incorrect on this.

[clipped for brevity]

Yeah, that was a mistake on my part -- I typed extending, but what I meant was staying with the team he's traded to, assuming he's traded this year.

So he's traded, opts in to the final year of his contract, then signing a five-year max in free agency with the same team two years from now. Which isn't extending in the CBA sense of the word. That was a slipup.

Got it.  I still think opting in gets him less money, although it would be closer.  It's pretty unlikely that his 2016 salary if he signs as a free agent will exceed what he would get if he signed in 2015 with whatever team he's traded to this summer.  At best, it's likely to be the same.  He'd have lost about $2 million in 2015-2016 since his option year will be less than 2015 free agency, and while the inter-year raises will be higher by your method, I don't see it making up the difference.  Sure, he gets 6 years instead of 5, but considering he's not yet 26, he probably has two contracts coming instead of 1, and hitting free agency a year earlier for his final contract makes good sense.  In fact, I'd expect him to have a final year player option in whatever deal he does sign, to make certain he hits free agency a year earlier if it makes sense.

[D.o.s.]

Yeah, I'd agree with that -- I wasn't factoring in contracts beyond his next one when I thought about it the first time.

[GreenWarrior]

What intrigues me is that these players say, "All I want to do is win" but then they want max contracts. 

It seems to me that the best way to win is for each star to take a little less money so the team can get better players.  I hate the Heat but their stars all took less money to help build a winning team.

Love and Rondo need to do the same, IMO.

it's what I hate about sports the most(that and players that take their career playing a kids game for granted). when it comes down to it i'd say 90% of the players in all of sports are more concerned with the money than ever winning a championship. and while I don't blame them it just makes me feel they don't appreciate their fortune on some level.

as for Lebron his legacy is way more important to him than money to a certain degree. he wants to be able to say he did this and he did that.

[Fafnir]

If Love really wants to sign here next year, would anyone on this board be willing to build our team this year so that we have cap space for him next year instead of trading for him? Keeping all of our assets and adding Love would make it a lot easier to build a team around him.

I agree with your second sentence, but Love will make more money by being traded this season, opting in, and extending with whatever team he lands on -- so not only will he and his agent push for that, I doubt he'll be willing to take a pay cut on what will be the largest contract of his career.

I may be misunderstanding what you're saying but I think you're incorrect on this.

[clipped for brevity]

Yeah, that was a mistake on my part -- I typed extending, but what I meant was staying with the team he's traded to, assuming he's traded this year.

So he's traded, opts in to the final year of his contract, then signing a five-year max in free agency with the same team two years from now. Which isn't extending in the CBA sense of the word. That was a slipup.

Got it.  I still think opting in gets him less money, although it would be closer.  It's pretty unlikely that his 2016 salary if he signs as a free agent will exceed what he would get if he signed in 2015 with whatever team he's traded to this summer.  At best, it's likely to be the same.  He'd have lost about $2 million in 2015-2016 since his option year will be less than 2015 free agency, and while the inter-year raises will be higher by your method, I don't see it making up the difference.  Sure, he gets 6 years instead of 5, but considering he's not yet 26, he probably has two contracts coming instead of 1, and hitting free agency a year earlier for his final contract makes good sense.  In fact, I'd expect him to have a final year player option in whatever deal he does sign, to make certain he hits free agency a year earlier if it makes sense.

It depends on what gets him higher raises for his next contract and what the 7 year player max salary is.

[Fafnir]

What intrigues me is that these players say, "All I want to do is win" but then they want max contracts. 

It seems to me that the best way to win is for each star to take a little less money so the team can get better players.  I hate the Heat but their stars all took less money to help build a winning team.

Love and Rondo need to do the same, IMO.

it's what I hate about sports the most(that and players that take their career playing a kids game for granted). when it comes down to it i'd say 90% of the players in all of sports are more concerned with the money than ever winning a championship. and while I don't blame them it just makes me feel they don't appreciate their fortune on some level.

as for Lebron his legacy is way more important to him than money to a certain degree. he wants to be able to say he did this and he did that.

Real easy to give away other people's money.

Plus its easy to take less so you can build a bench that offseason. Its another when the GM can't give you the concrete moves he wants to do now, and instead its just vague promises based on future flexibility.

[saltlover]

If Love really wants to sign here next year, would anyone on this board be willing to build our team this year so that we have cap space for him next year instead of trading for him? Keeping all of our assets and adding Love would make it a lot easier to build a team around him.

I agree with your second sentence, but Love will make more money by being traded this season, opting in, and extending with whatever team he lands on -- so not only will he and his agent push for that, I doubt he'll be willing to take a pay cut on what will be the largest contract of his career.

I may be misunderstanding what you're saying but I think you're incorrect on this.

[clipped for brevity]

Yeah, that was a mistake on my part -- I typed extending, but what I meant was staying with the team he's traded to, assuming he's traded this year.

So he's traded, opts in to the final year of his contract, then signing a five-year max in free agency with the same team two years from now. Which isn't extending in the CBA sense of the word. That was a slipup.

Got it.  I still think opting in gets him less money, although it would be closer.  It's pretty unlikely that his 2016 salary if he signs as a free agent will exceed what he would get if he signed in 2015 with whatever team he's traded to this summer.  At best, it's likely to be the same.  He'd have lost about $2 million in 2015-2016 since his option year will be less than 2015 free agency, and while the inter-year raises will be higher by your method, I don't see it making up the difference.  Sure, he gets 6 years instead of 5, but considering he's not yet 26, he probably has two contracts coming instead of 1, and hitting free agency a year earlier for his final contract makes good sense.  In fact, I'd expect him to have a final year player option in whatever deal he does sign, to make certain he hits free agency a year earlier if it makes sense.

It depends on what gets him higher raises for his next contract and what the 7 year player max salary is.

I mean, yes, it does depend, but that's my point.

The CBA is written anticipating a 4-4.5% increase in the salary cap every year.  My point is that it would take at least a 7.5% increase in the salary cap from 2015 to 2016 for Love to come out even by opting in.  That may sound small, but it's a very big difference -- this year is right around that magic 7.5% mark, but the last two years fell short of even a 2%. increase.

Here are the numbers.

If Love signs as a free agent in 2015 with the team he is traded to this summer, and the current cap projection by the NBA of $66.0 million is accurate, then Love makes the following:

2015: $18.67 million
2016: $20.07 million
2017: $21.48 million
2018: $22.88 million
2019: $24.28 million

5 Year Total: $107.38 million

If Love opts in to his deal, and the 2016-2017 salary cap increases by 7.5%, which is probably an upper limit of how much it will increase by, then Love will make the following:

2015: $16.74 million
2016: $20.23 million
2017: $21.74 million
2018: $23.26 million
2019: $24.78 million
2020: $26.29 million

2015-2019 5 year total: $106.75 million

Sure, he gets that 6th year, but he'll be eligible for a new contract in 2020, so it makes most sense to compare that 5-year total.  And over the same 5-year stretch, even with an aggressive assumption about the increase between the 2015 and 2016 max salaries, he still comes out behind.  I even ran it with an 8% increase, and while closer, at $107.20 million over the same 5-year stretch, opting out still comes out ahead.

Of course there is some uncertainty with these numbers.  But even approaching the reasonable upper-limits of the uncertainty, it doesn't make monetary sense for Love to opt in.  Especially once you consider the added risk that he gets injured in his option year, it makes even less sense for him to not opt-out and sign a max contract with the team who trades for him, if he is in fact, as DOS suggested, taking steps to maximize his future earnings.

[GreenWarrior]

didn't wyc say they would pay the luxury tax if they had to?