Saric will only play for Celtics or Lakers

[timobusa]

Smart guy. LOL But I'm hoping he falls to 17.

[manl_lui]

I'm sold by his play making abilities. Great passer from the videos I've seen on DX. I don't necessarily agree with the whole "trade Rondo if we have Saric c uz Rondo pounds the ball". I think the ball movement will be excellent and he has the ability to do the extra pass to the wide open man

I don't want him at 6, but at 17, sure. He is also very quick for a guy his size and could shoot the 3. Biggest question is, can he play the 3? or is he strong enough to play the 4?

[ederson]

I`ve watched a couple of games and the kid has definately skills. But he is not the second coming of Sabonis. European basketball lucks talent in the bigs and anyone decent looks like a superstar. Even in euroleague you won`t find really good bigs.

Maccabi relies of Schortsianitis (who definately can`t play in the NBA) Panathinaikos` second best player is Stephen Lasme and broom-like players like Begic make a living playing for Real and Olympiacos.

And lets not forget Milicic who also dominated lesser leagues and turned into a huge bust

[Celtics4ever]

That league plays no D and he has produced against no D.

[SHAQATTACK]

If he has to play for LA or Celtics this year he maybe very disappointed.

I don't see Danny risking his 6 th on this dude ....no matter the Love outcome.

No way LA takes him before Gordon , Randle or Vonleh

He should have went to school in the USA and played on a REAL program ......which I feel would have exposed him as a small fish in a big pond

[Evantime34]

Mark Murphy weighs in on Saric

Though they are also interested in Croatian power forward Dario Saric as a candidate for the 17th pick, his team (KK Cibona Zagreb) is still playing. As such, Saric probably won?t work out for any NBA team this spring, though he also intrigues the Celtics for another reason: He has reportedly said he will definitely come to the NBA next season if he is drafted by either the Celtics or Lakers.

I think the Lakers and Celtics as destinations had to do with money. I'm not sure he comes over if we pick him at 17. However, even if he doesn't come over for two years I would draft him at 17.

[BballTim]

Mark Murphy weighs in on Saric

Though they are also interested in Croatian power forward Dario Saric as a candidate for the 17th pick, his team (KK Cibona Zagreb) is still playing. As such, Saric probably won?t work out for any NBA team this spring, though he also intrigues the Celtics for another reason: He has reportedly said he will definitely come to the NBA next season if he is drafted by either the Celtics or Lakers.

I think the Lakers and Celtics as destinations had to do with money. I'm not sure he comes over if we pick him at 17. However, even if he doesn't come over for two years I would draft him at 17.

  If it had to do with money would he rule out playing for teams with better picks than ours?

[kozlodoev]

Really, 36 points versus ABA bottom feeder KK Zadar is supposed to be impressive?! Their front court rotation is 6'7 - 6'8. Give it a rest, please, it's not helping your case.

edit: Also, judging by how he measures against 6'7 Ive Ivanov (#6) in that video, I'm not sure he's legit 6'10, even if you allow an inch for shoes.

[Fafnir]

Mark Murphy weighs in on Saric

Though they are also interested in Croatian power forward Dario Saric as a candidate for the 17th pick, his team (KK Cibona Zagreb) is still playing. As such, Saric probably won?t work out for any NBA team this spring, though he also intrigues the Celtics for another reason: He has reportedly said he will definitely come to the NBA next season if he is drafted by either the Celtics or Lakers.

I think the Lakers and Celtics as destinations had to do with money. I'm not sure he comes over if we pick him at 17. However, even if he doesn't come over for two years I would draft him at 17.

  If it had to do with money would he rule out playing for teams with better picks than ours?

I think his agent/camp know that he's not going top 5.

[BballTim]

Mark Murphy weighs in on Saric

Though they are also interested in Croatian power forward Dario Saric as a candidate for the 17th pick, his team (KK Cibona Zagreb) is still playing. As such, Saric probably won?t work out for any NBA team this spring, though he also intrigues the Celtics for another reason: He has reportedly said he will definitely come to the NBA next season if he is drafted by either the Celtics or Lakers.

I think the Lakers and Celtics as destinations had to do with money. I'm not sure he comes over if we pick him at 17. However, even if he doesn't come over for two years I would draft him at 17.

  If it had to do with money would he rule out playing for teams with better picks than ours?

I think his agent/camp know that he's not going top 5.

  They might also know he's not going top 6-7.

[Kane3387]

Saric reminds me a lot of Chandler Parsons. Not the athlete Parsons is but not a ridiculous comparison.

I think #6 is a reach, but if Ainge moved back or was really a believer I could get behind it.

Hedo turkuglu

[kozlodoev]

And somehow, the system doesn't produce more players capable to function in the NBA than the NCAA. Arguably, it probably produces less, given that the large majority of high European draft picks since, say, 2005, have been flops.

LOL - obviously, such an assertion cries out for test!

Let's stick with lottery picks (top 14).

2005  Fran Vasquez(11) & Yaoslav Korolev(12).   Vasquez proved to be a 'bad pick' by Orlando mainly in that he decided after the draft to stay in Europe, p---ing off Magic fans.  But not, technically a flop due to being a bad player.  Korolev was a Donald Sterling special.  There are some weird circumstances around the way the Clippers handled him, but let's just call him a flop.   1 of 2 *

2006 Andrea Bargnani(1), Mouhamed Sene(10) & Thabo Sefolosha (13).  Bargnani has certainly not played up to #1 billing, but he has at least been an 'adequate' NBA player.   He had a couple of really good years with Toronto.  His problem has mainly been staying healthy, not ability.   Thabo has been solid.   Sene qualifies as a flop.  1 of 3

2007 Yi Jianlian (6).    Flop.    (Note - Bellini was picked at #18, outside our range).   1 of 1

2008 Danilo Gallinari(6).  Not a flop.   0 of 1

2009  Ricky Rubio (5).   Hmmm... very debatable ... let's go with 'flop'.  Some will disagree.  1 of 1

2010  No non-NCAAs in the top 14.  Udoh and Aminu played in the NCAA.  0 of 0

2011  Enes Kanter (3), Valanciunas (5), Vesely (6), Biyombo (7).   I know some will more aggressively label more or all of these guys busts, but in reality, compared to their draft slots, by games, minutes played & win shares, Vesely is the only one who is in the 'flop' territory.  And even his production hasn't been a complete disaster.    1 of 4

2012  No non-NCAAs in the top 14.  Fournier was taken #20.   0 of 0

2013  No non-NCAAs in the top 14.  Giannis (15), Nogueira (16) & Shroder (17) all taken just outside.     0 of 0

So since 2005 that is 5 of 12 non-NCAA players taken that were flops.   Some might argue against Rubio and Vesely as flops yet, which would drop that to 3 of 12, but lets go with 5 or 42% (with some large error bars around that).

Just found this gem and felt I had to address it. You think Rubio is a borderline flop at 5, but Biuyombo and Kanter are not at 7 and 3, respectively are not, "compared to their draft slots"... SMH.

What is obvious from this list though is that:

(a) there have only been only 12 players picked high in recent years, not a large number by any means (that's also an indication of how efficient the system is in grooming talent), and
(b) most of those players do not perform even close to the expectations they were picked with -- Korolev, Sene, Bargnani, Rubio, Kanter, Vesely, Buyombo, and Jianlian all fit that bill. That's 8 of the 11 players that chose to come to the NBA.

That's my definition of flop. Perhaps it's different from yours, but that's another discussion altogether.

[NorthernLightning]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJ4vl73v5-w

[sofutomygaha]

Saric reminds me a lot of Chandler Parsons. Not the athlete Parsons is but not a ridiculous comparison.

I think #6 is a reach, but if Ainge moved back or was really a believer I could get behind it.

Hedo turkuglu

Obligatory reminder that Turkuglu used to be a really good player

[mmmmm]

Just found this gem and felt I had to address it. You think Rubio is a borderline flop at 5, but Biuyombo and Kanter are not at 7 and 3, respectively are not, "compared to their draft slots"... SMH.

What is obvious from this list though is that:

(a) there have only been only 12 players picked high in recent years, not a large number by any means (that's also an indication of how efficient the system is in grooming talent), and
(b) most of those players do not perform even close to the expectations they were picked with -- Korolev, Sene, Bargnani, Rubio, Kanter, Vesely, Buyombo, and Jianlian all fit that bill. That's 8 of the 11 players that chose to come to the NBA.

That's my definition of flop. Perhaps it's different from yours, but that's another discussion altogether.

Per my response on Biyombo earlier:

Byombo is definitely not a big success for 7th pick, but it's still too early to call him a flop.  He's only had three seasons and big men take longer to 'show' in the NBA.  He will only be 22 this coming year.   He's also managed to record 4713 minutes in the NBA and has respectable per-36 rates of 10.1 rebounds and 2.6 blocks.  And those numbers were up to 12.3 & 9 in his most recent season.  His DRB% this last season was an excellent 27.6%.   So unlike Rubio, he has shown definite signs of progress each year.   He may still flop, but it's still too early to say so.

I looked at the numbers for each of the 'questionable' players and tried to compare their overall production relative to their draft class and to their slot.  I looked at minutes played, games, points, rebounds, win shares and the trending of efficiency numbers.   Since no single number is ever perfect, there is naturally going to be an element of subjective interpretation and evaluation.

I'm not surprised, really, that  you've come back with a far more stringent definition of 'flop' -- though it seems vague as to what the exact criteria are.   If you could express it formally, perhaps we could apply the same test against all the domestic players to see how they fair?

The 12 international players picked with lottery picks represents 1 in 10 of all lottery picks during that span.   Now, as of last year, 1 in 5 players on opening day rosters were internationals (and the trending for that ratio is going up)  This suggests that some international players from lower in the draft (or UDFA) are perhaps out-performing their slot.