Chad Ford: Excellent prognosticator or excellent talent evaluator?

[nickagneta]

I know a lot of the posters on this board get 99% of their information about the NBA draft and the possible players that are going to be drafted from 2-3 sources: Chad Ford at ESPN, Draftexpress, and NBADraft.net. Now my opinions differ greatly on these sources from good to over-rated to bad but I want to discusss one individual in particular, Ford.

Ford gets a ton of credit in the NBA Draft reporting circles. He is very plugged into information from around the league with GMs, assistant GMs and scouts. But I think many times he gets credit for being a great talent evaluator. But is he?

Ford, for the most part, gets the players that are going to be selected in the first round of the draft slotted in areas that they are actually taken. I give him credit for that. But one of his ESPN Insider specialties is ranking the prospective players based on talent and has them numbered from 1-100.

So I ask, is Chad Ford a great talent evaluator and hence this is why he gets the mock drafts fairly close or is he just a person that can disseminate information very well and has an excellent network of people to gather that information from?

The reason I ask is because while he seems to get the order of the players drafted in a pretty close facsimile of what the actual draft looks like, he obviously then is making the same mistakes actual GMs are and has players taken way to high and way too low in his mock drafts. But even when compared to his top 100 player list, its still pretty much the same thing. There isn't a lot of difference between his mock drafts and his top 100 player rankings.

So which do you think it is. Is Ford just really plugged in and hence gets the players ranked in a pretty good order of where he thinks they will go based on that information or is he a very good talent evaluator that uses how good these players are and bases his mock drafts on the players' overall talent, but just gets a lot wrong when looked at how these players succeed or fail, once they start playing?

[Fafnir]

Very plugged in with NBA front offices, especially scouts.

I honestly think he uses their evaluations more than his own in creating his top 100 and mock drafts.

[loco_91]

I don't think much of his talent evaluation skills. Tends to go with the crowd. When he and DX disagree, DX is more often correct imo.

[staticcc]

He often goes by what scouts tell him, not his own evaluations so at least he doesn't make up stuff when it comes to scouting. Though this year, he may be doing that with Wiggins and Embiid as he loves Kansas U.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Very plugged in with NBA front offices, especially scouts.

I honestly think he uses their evaluations more than his own in creating his top 100 and mock drafts.

Agreed. Particularly mock drafts are not about talent evaluation, but the perception of NBA teams front offices and what they are inclined to due and how the seem to value players.

So I don't think this says anything about Ford's talent evaluation, other than good sources and maybe being in the know of what front offices value, how risk averse are they, and how injuries/workouts may affect decisions.

[Who]

Doesn't Chad Ford himself say that he doesn't rank the players based on his own evaluations but based instead on opinions of front office personnel he talks to.

[moiso]

Doesn't Chad Ford himself say that he doesn't rank the players based on his own evaluations but based instead on opinions of front office personnel he talks to.

Yes.  He is not an evaluator and he doesn't claim to be.

[PickNRoll]

On podcasts, he sounds like a guy who has never picked up a basketball or played competitive sports.  He must be plugged in to NBA management.

[D.o.s.]

On podcasts, he sounds like a guy who has never picked up a basketball or played competitive sports.  He must be plugged in to NBA management.

You can tell all that by the sound of his voice?

(full disclosure: I've never listened to a Chad Ford podcast, or any podcast about sports).

[Smartacus]

Like you I follow the draft throughout the year from any source I can find. The most impressive thing I saw from Ford this year was that he was the first to jump on the Embiid bandwagon.

I believe it was on an early BS Report where he stated that Wiggins may be the stud at the moment, but once people see Embiid play and move on the court he will rocket up boards and may even gain #1 consideration. Mind you this was back when consensus had Embiid taken around 5/lower/not going to come out this year. 

It made me fire up youtube to see what I assumed was a major school overreaction typical of an ESPN guy. When I was done he had me convinced and I'm still convinced that if healthy Embiid was/is clearly the best prospect.

Now Ford was lucky here. He grew up in Kansas so he had already paid special attention Embiid from a fan's perspective during the summer, but that doesn't change the fact that he absolutely called Embiid's rise and imo for that he should be commended.

[PickNRoll]

On podcasts, he sounds like a guy who has never picked up a basketball or played competitive sports.  He must be plugged in to NBA management.

You can tell all that by the sound of his voice?

(full disclosure: I've never listened to a Chad Ford podcast, or any podcast about sports).

No.  I can tell by the words that are coming out of his mouth.  His vernacular.  The same sense you might get if Paris Hilton were talking basketball.

[Jeff]

even the best talent evaluators get things "wrong" (if you can call it that) very often

sometimes talented guys just don't pan out for one reason or another and other guys overachieve - it happens and there's no way to predict it

I actually very much appreciate the work Ford does in gathering info from GMs to give us an idea of where people will be picked - makes it easier to narrow down the field of possible picks

[colincb]

He's certainly very plugged in, but he's an above average evaluator compared to the other pundits  Watch as much ball for as long as he has and you're bound to pick up a lot on top of which he has a feedback loop with his NBA contacts to check back on his impressions.  I prefer DraftX because they do the film breakdowns on prospects, but Ford's good.

[footey]

Ford is the best at GM intel.  For example, he led the way on Ainge's love of Rondo back in 2006, and even projected Ainge might take him, albeit by trading down the 6th pick. 

His judgment of talent tends to be too upbeat.  If you follow his recent evaluations of guys who are working out, almost every one of them gets a glowing review from Ford.  Of course, it is hard to say anything different, since these work outs are pretty isolated.  Ford is not one to break down game tape on his own and form judgments.

So yes, he is the most plugged in guy to what GMs are really thinking, and yes, he does not evaluate talent much on this own, and doesn't really sell himself on this.

[Celtics18]

It annoys me that one has to pay money to read Chad Ford's mock drafts.  I'll stick with Draft Express.