Official Pre-Lottery Draft Predictions for two first round picks

[No Nickname]

AT #17 I'm loving Adreian Payne.  This guy is a beast, has a great handle for a 6'10 big guy (he's no small forward, he's a rebounding machine), has a nice turnaround jumper, and can hit the three. 

Just a great combination of skills for a big man. 

[PhoSita]

AT #17 I'm loving Adreian Payne.  This guy is a beast, has a great handle for a 6'10 big guy (he's no small forward, he's a rebounding machine), has a nice turnaround jumper, and can hit the three. 

Just a great combination of skills for a big man.

Maybe so, but don't we already have two (probably more talented) big men with a similar skillset? 

[PhoSita]

If Danny is right  -- and I think he is -- the most important player needed is a defensive stud/rim protector, and other than Embiid the best long term choice is Vonleh at No.5. Remember he's only 18 and may still be growing.

I haven't heard this mentioned at all, but as the youngest player in the draft, isn't it possible that Aaron Gordon will grow some more, too?

He's such a versatile defender at 6'9'', imagine if he grew another couple of inches?  He might actually be able to play center, and defend three positions.

[No Nickname]

AT #17 I'm loving Adreian Payne.  This guy is a beast, has a great handle for a 6'10 big guy (he's no small forward, he's a rebounding machine), has a nice turnaround jumper, and can hit the three. 

Just a great combination of skills for a big man.

Maybe so, but don't we already have two (probably more talented) big men with a similar skillset?

Payne shot 42.3% from three, 50% from the field, 79% at the FT line, and averaged 7.3 rebounds per game.  He's also a legit 6'10" and 245. 

He's tougher down low than Olynyk, and more mobile than Sullinger.  He can also drive to the basket.  Think of a more rugged Chris Bosh.  Not a bad pick at #17.

[footey]

#5--Smart (even if Exum is still on the board)

#17--Warren

Wow. You like Smart that much. How come?

[BleedGreen1989]

If Danny is right  -- and I think he is -- the most important player needed is a defensive stud/rim protector, and other than Embiid the best long term choice is Vonleh at No.5. Remember he's only 18 and may still be growing.

I haven't heard this mentioned at all, but as the youngest player in the draft, isn't it possible that Aaron Gordon will grow some more, too?

He's such a versatile defender at 6'9'', imagine if he grew another couple of inches?  He might actually be able to play center, and defend three positions.

I'm trying to warm up to Gordon as I feel if we stay at 5, he'll be the selection.

But man, if he could grow even more, that'd be a lot easier to like lol.

[footey]

AT #17 I'm loving Adreian Payne.  This guy is a beast, has a great handle for a 6'10 big guy (he's no small forward, he's a rebounding machine), has a nice turnaround jumper, and can hit the three. 

Just a great combination of skills for a big man.

I think you can trade down to get him.  I agree that he could be an early contributor to the team. But I don't think he projects into a future starter, more as a bench energy guy.  I would like to get another potential starter from that second pick.

[PhoSita]

AT #17 I'm loving Adreian Payne.  This guy is a beast, has a great handle for a 6'10 big guy (he's no small forward, he's a rebounding machine), has a nice turnaround jumper, and can hit the three. 

Just a great combination of skills for a big man.

Maybe so, but don't we already have two (probably more talented) big men with a similar skillset?

Payne shot 42.3% from three, 50% from the field, 79% at the FT line, and averaged 7.3 rebounds per game.  He's also a legit 6'10" and 245. 

He's tougher down low than Olynyk, and more mobile than Sullinger.  He can also drive to the basket.  Think of a more rugged Chris Bosh.  Not a bad pick at #17.

A "more rugged Chris Bosh" is not available at #17 in the draft.  Nor is he a guy that stayed in college until age 23.

I'm thinking "a more rugged Anthony Tolliver" is probably more accurate.

[No Nickname]

AT #17 I'm loving Adreian Payne.  This guy is a beast, has a great handle for a 6'10 big guy (he's no small forward, he's a rebounding machine), has a nice turnaround jumper, and can hit the three. 

Just a great combination of skills for a big man.

Maybe so, but don't we already have two (probably more talented) big men with a similar skillset?

Payne shot 42.3% from three, 50% from the field, 79% at the FT line, and averaged 7.3 rebounds per game.  He's also a legit 6'10" and 245. 

He's tougher down low than Olynyk, and more mobile than Sullinger.  He can also drive to the basket.  Think of a more rugged Chris Bosh.  Not a bad pick at #17.

A "more rugged Chris Bosh" is not available at #17 in the draft.  Nor is he a guy that stayed in college until age 23.

I'm thinking "a more rugged Anthony Tolliver" is probably more accurate.

Chad Ford has him at #19.  So it's not a reach and you couldn't trade down too far for fear of missing out. 

Here he is scoring 41 in the NCAA tourney.  4-5 on threes and 17-17 from the line.  Dude is a beast!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8YXVRuDHqg

[PhoSita]

Chad Ford has him at #19.  So it's not a reach and you couldn't trade down too far for fear of missing out. 

My point is, there's no way he'd be projected for that part of the draft if he were as talented as your comparison would suggest.

He'll probably be a bench role player.  An energy 4/5 who can stretch the floor a bit.

Most teams can use a player like that, but with Sullinger and Olynyk already on the roster, I think the Celtics can get more value with the 17th pick.

[Mr October]

AT #17 I'm loving Adreian Payne.  This guy is a beast, has a great handle for a 6'10 big guy (he's no small forward, he's a rebounding machine), has a nice turnaround jumper, and can hit the three. 

Just a great combination of skills for a big man.

Maybe so, but don't we already have two (probably more talented) big men with a similar skillset?

Payne shot 42.3% from three, 50% from the field, 79% at the FT line, and averaged 7.3 rebounds per game.  He's also a legit 6'10" and 245. 

He's tougher down low than Olynyk, and more mobile than Sullinger.  He can also drive to the basket.  Think of a more rugged Chris Bosh.  Not a bad pick at #17.

A "more rugged Chris Bosh" is not available at #17 in the draft.  Nor is he a guy that stayed in college until age 23.

I'm thinking "a more rugged Anthony Tolliver" is probably more accurate.

Chad Ford has him at #19.  So it's not a reach and you couldn't trade down too far for fear of missing out. 

Here he is scoring 41 in the NCAA tourney.  4-5 on threes and 17-17 from the line.  Dude is a beast!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8YXVRuDHqg

He successfully dominated a poor Delaware team. Scalabrine probably could have done that. Considering Payne was a senior he should have dominated throughout the tournament. But he didn't. He's no Chris Bosh. He is a taller, slower, less athletic Brndon Bass. He could fill a Matt Bonner type role deep on a contender's bench (with better rebounding than Bonner). That's not a bad player to have if you dont already have Sully, Olynyk and Bass as your power forwards.

[No Nickname]

My point is, there's no way he'd be projected for that part of the draft if he were as talented as your comparison would suggest.

He'll probably be a bench role player.  An energy 4/5 who can stretch the floor a bit.

Most teams can use a player like that, but with Sullinger and Olynyk already on the roster, I think the Celtics can get more value with the 17th pick.

I understand what you're saying.  And I agree with one of your two points.  You're right that he's not considered Chris Bosh-quality in this draft like Bosh was 10 years ago.  Bosh was what, a top-five pick?

But as far as more value with the 17th pick, that's impossible to tell.  Payne's predicted by many to go between 18-23 so how much more value could you get?  It's not like he's projected as a 2nd rounder and I'm suggesting taking him at 17.  The draft is such an inexact science you can't tell what value a pick has until years later. 

And I'm sure the same thing was said about Rondo when he was drafted 22nd.  Redo that draft today and Rondo is a sure-fire top-three pick.  Top-five if you consider his injury.

I'm just saying that Payne may end up being one of those that some late lottery folks will really regret not taking.  I'd put his ceiling on par with Nene.  Not a star, but a solid starter.

[Mr October]

If Danny is right  -- and I think he is -- the most important player needed is a defensive stud/rim protector, and other than Embiid the best long term choice is Vonleh at No.5. Remember he's only 18 and may still be growing.

I haven't heard this mentioned at all, but as the youngest player in the draft, isn't it possible that Aaron Gordon will grow some more, too?

He's such a versatile defender at 6'9'', imagine if he grew another couple of inches?  He might actually be able to play center, and defend three positions.

The height and reach measurements for Gordon and Vonleh in a couple weeks could significantly affect their draft positions. A team might also be able to project wether they are still growing as well.

[No Nickname]

He successfully dominated a poor Delaware team. Scalabrine probably could have done that. Considering Payne was a senior he should have dominated throughout the tournament. But he didn't.

Really?  If you use points scored against an inferior opponent in an NCAA game as a qualifier then half the guys projected to go in the lottery shouldn't be picked there.  Yet Payne scored 41 and you scoff at that saying that anyone worth their salt could have done that? 

How did he not dominate?  He averaged 20.5 ppg, 10-23 from three, and 6.5 rpg.  This with several guys on the team that are considered much better players than him (i.e. Gary Harris).

Tough critics on this board for a #17 pick.  Haha!

Time will tell, time will tell.

[Mr October]

He successfully dominated a poor Delaware team. Scalabrine probably could have done that. Considering Payne was a senior he should have dominated throughout the tournament. But he didn't.

Really?  If you use points scored against an inferior opponent in an NCAA game as a qualifier then half the guys projected to go in the lottery shouldn't be picked there.  Yet Payne scored 41 and you scoff at that saying that anyone worth their salt could have done that? 

How did he not dominate?  He averaged 20.5 ppg, 10-23 from three, and 6.5 rpg.  This with several guys on the team that are considered much better players than him (i.e. Gary Harris).

Tough critics on this board for a #17 pick.  Haha!

Time will tell, time will tell.

The Delaware game was impressive. But 4-14 against uconn, including 3-10 from 3 point land? He should have been using that giant senior body around the basket against a less than nba calibur front line.

He could be a good pick at 17. A young Brandon Bass could be a good pick at 17. The Celtics just don't need a player like that right now, when there are a stack of 2s and 3s projected ahead of him.

As you said, time will tell. All our conjecturing is just good fun.

By the way, Scal averaged 15 and 6 during his 3 year run at USC. He was a pretty good college player. Long live Scal! 

He was even all pac10 first team in his second season there.