Rondo signing an extension this off-season?

[Celtics18]

It makes very little sense for Rondo to do this.

Rondo's value can't be terribly high right now.  If he signed an extension at this point, it's likely he'd be signing at below market value. 

Also, there's the matter of Rondo's age and where the Celtics are at right now.  Barring a Garnett + Allen style flurry of moves, the Celtics are at least a couple years away from having the pieces to be truly competitive.  Rondo will likely be in his 30s before the Celtics are ready to make a run in the playoffs.

I think for Rondo it makes sense to wait things out.  He can come back (hopefully) fully healthy next season.  He can try and have the best (statistical) season of his career.  He'll have leverage to pressure the Celtics to either make moves to put some talented, experienced pieces around him, or else trade him to a team with whom he is interested in signing long term.


There are only two reasons that come to mind for Rondo to sign an extension this summer, and neither seem characteristic of him:

One - he's worried that he might get injured again or that his value will only diminish moving forward. 

Two - he really wants to stay in Boston regardless of the situation and he wants to give the team a home-town discount.



For the Celtics, it would make a lot of sense to trade Rondo this summer if he won't agree to a contract extension.  I don't think it would be a good idea to head into next season with the cloud of Rondo's impending free agency hanging over the team for months on end.


I also think a factor for the Celtics has to be the cost of keeping Rondo, even if he is willing to re-sign.  Rondo is probably worth between 12 and 15 million to the right team.  I don't think he's worth that to the Celtics, who don't have any elite scorers on the roster, and probably won't get one in the draft in June. 

It's also possible that Rondo will want to get the kind of money that Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Russell Westbrook are getting, whereas in my opinion fair value for him is closer to what Stephen Curry and Ty Lawson are making.  The team should under no circumstances give Rondo deal that will give him over $15 million per year.

Or:

Three:  He would welcome the peace of mind that came with signing an extension this off-season.  I can't imagine he would relish going into next season, and the media fire storm that would surround him,  if he were approaching unrestricted free agency. 

Also, I know he's prideful and maybe thinks he'll be worth a contract worth $100 million the following off-season, but Rondo also strikes me as a pragmatist.  If Ainge doesn't put a legitimate playoff team around him this off-season, he will more than likely take the bulk of the blame for the team's struggles.  That won't help his contract value.  The fans might turn on him, and in the long run, it might not work out for his future.

I think he'd be smart to take the "home town deal," earn himself some trust with the fan base, and commit to being a major part of the rebuild as the new captain of the Celtics. 

From Danny's perspective, offering Rondo the full amount he is entitled to this off-season is a bit of a gamble, but definitely one worth taking, and one I think Danny would take if Rondo accepted. 

[obnoxiousmime]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the new CBA encourage star players to wait until their contract is actually up in order to receive the highest possible extension offer? Which means that the NBA's desire to limit contract length is in conflict with their other desire to lock in stars to their original teams. Or maybe it was the same way in the last CBA as well?

[D.o.s.]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the new CBA encourage star players to wait until their contract is actually up in order to receive the highest possible extension offer? Which means that the NBA's desire to limit contract length is in conflict with their other desire to lock in stars to their original teams. Or maybe it was the same way in the last CBA as well?

You're right. It literally makes no sense for a player to sign an extension under the new CBA unless they're trying to lock up a new contract as soon as possible for stability. That's why I voted for "almost zero"

[RJ87]

None if the thinking is that our team won't improve from here to then. However, our young players will continue to improve, we are adding 2 1st rd picks this year, and a probable lottery pick next year. Plus, this doesn't include the assets we get for Rondo. For example, getting McLemore and the rights to Smart from Sacramento. Moreover, not giving Rondo near max money, and having plenty of players under their rookie scale contracts, gives us the ability to sign two max players.

So having a team of Sullinger, Olynyk, McLemore, Smart, top 5 pick this year, #17 this year, top 8 pick next year (reasonable assumption) and playing in a big city for a marquee franchise for max money could be a desirable destination for two free agents signing.

I think this is a bit of a fantasy.

If Jackie Mac was telling the truth (I see no reason to believe she wasn't), Rondo has already told Sacramento he had no interest in resigning with them. I thoroughly doubt they pull the trigger on giving up assets for a one year rental. So you can already scratch off McLemore and the rights to Smart.

Now say the draft doesn't go our way and odds win out, and we end up with pick #7. We draft Vonleh or Gordon. So you then have a core of Sullinger, Olynyk, Gordon, #17, next years draft pick, and assets we get from a Rondo trade. I'm sorry, unless we really knock it out of the park on the Rondo trade and come up with a guy who is on the cusp of being an all-star, I have a hard time seeing any of the free agents from 2015 or even 2016 signing up for that. That's still a rebuilding project completely relying on the draft, how often do free agents intentionally sign with rebuilding projects? Having an established core in place is going to be the best bet for attracting a free agent.

More likely: we miss out on the top 3 this year, Danny tries to trade the pick for an established player and Rondo resigns, or he drafts a guy like Gordon and we hope for the best.

[Eddie20]

None if the thinking is that our team won't improve from here to then. However, our young players will continue to improve, we are adding 2 1st rd picks this year, and a probable lottery pick next year. Plus, this doesn't include the assets we get for Rondo. For example, getting McLemore and the rights to Smart from Sacramento. Moreover, not giving Rondo near max money, and having plenty of players under their rookie scale contracts, gives us the ability to sign two max players.

So having a team of Sullinger, Olynyk, McLemore, Smart, top 5 pick this year, #17 this year, top 8 pick next year (reasonable assumption) and playing in a big city for a marquee franchise for max money could be a desirable destination for two free agents signing.

I think this is a bit of a fantasy.

If Jackie Mac was telling the truth (I see no reason to believe she wasn't), Rondo has already told Sacramento he had no interest in resigning with them. I thoroughly doubt they pull the trigger on giving up assets for a one year rental. So you can already scratch off McLemore and the rights to Smart.

Now say the draft doesn't go our way and odds win out, and we end up with pick #7. We draft Vonleh or Gordon. So you then have a core of Sullinger, Olynyk, Gordon, #17, next years draft pick, and assets we get from a Rondo trade. I'm sorry, unless we really knock it out of the park on the Rondo trade and come up with a guy who is on the cusp of being an all-star, I have a hard time seeing any of the free agents from 2015 or even 2016 signing up for that. That's still a rebuilding project completely relying on the draft, how often do free agents intentionally sign with rebuilding projects? Having an established core in place is going to be the best bet for attracting a free agent.

More likely: we miss out on the top 3 this year, Danny tries to trade the pick for an established player and Rondo resigns, or he drafts a guy like Gordon and we hope for the best.

See, that's where we differ as I don't see our 2015-16 as a rebuilding team. The current players will improve. Assets will continue to trickle in via draft picks.  I would say that our situation would be no different than someone like West signing with the up and coming Pacers and far different than Amare signing with the no talent Knicks.

[PhoSita]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the new CBA encourage star players to wait until their contract is actually up in order to receive the highest possible extension offer? Which means that the NBA's desire to limit contract length is in conflict with their other desire to lock in stars to their original teams. Or maybe it was the same way in the last CBA as well?

You're right. It literally makes no sense for a player to sign an extension under the new CBA unless they're trying to lock up a new contract as soon as possible for stability. That's why I voted for "almost zero"

Exactly.

[LooseCannon]

If Rondo wants to be a Celtic forever and plans on asking for a no-trade clause, he would have to wait until free agency because he can't get one as part of an extension.

[PhoSita]

$15 is absolutely at the upper end of what I'd have any interest in paying him. He's not a max guy. Not even close.

By the time Rondo hits free agency, a max deal for him could be around $19 million.  An increase in the salary cap means salaries are going to rise, and Rondo's going to get a piece of that.

I wish him well.  Hope he gets a piece of that, elsewhere.

[saltlover]

$15 is absolutely at the upper end of what I'd have any interest in paying him. He's not a max guy. Not even close.

By the time Rondo hits free agency, a max deal for him could be around $19 million.  An increase in the salary cap means salaries are going to rise, and Rondo's going to get a piece of that.

Two words for $19 million - not interested. As far as I'm concerned, he can sign for sensible money - $13 to $15 - this summer early, or Ainge should consider the failure to do same a mandate to move him.

Three points:

1) $15 million will probably be 75% to 80% of a max deal, so I wasn't attempting to disagree.
2) The market may make $15 million the new $12 million, and so forth, especially when the NBA gets a new TV deal, in I think 2016-2017.   $15 million may seem like a relative bargain before his contract is done.
3) Rondo's unwillingness to sign an extension may be as much about length as it is dollars.  If he waits to hit free agency, he can get four years from any team, and 5 years from the Celtics.  If he signs an extension, it's only three years.  If he's traded this summer, he could only get a two-year extension, which is why he's not going to agree to one as part of the trade.  It's up to Ainge to interpret Rondo's hesitation regarding an extension, but it may very well not be about annual contract value, and rather length.

[Donoghus]

Almost close to zero.

Pretty much makes no sense.  I think you'd have to be projecting your own feelings/loyalties onto Rondo if you think he would be signing something this off-season.

[gpap]

I wouldn't give Rondo that type of deal.

I think an offer like that would be more appropriate for another upcoming free agent (Aldridge, Love, Gasol, etc.)

Not that I would necessarily be opposed to extending Rondo if it means the Celts returning to contention sooner.

However, in my opinion, I don't think he's a 15 mil/yr player.

I think MAYBE the only two teams that would offer Rondo that much are the Lakers and Knicks and that's only because both those teams are desperate to return to being at least semi-respectable.

[PhoSita]

I think MAYBE the only two teams that would offer Rondo that much are the Lakers and Knicks and that's only because both those teams are desperate to return being at least semi-respectable.

Agreed.  Those are also the two teams with the very worst play at the point guard position this season.  Maybe you could throw Detroit in there too, but they're stuck with Jennings.

[saltlover]

I wouldn't give Rondo that type of deal.

I think an offer like that would be more appropriate for another upcoming free agent (Aldridge, Love, Gasol, etc.)

Not that I would necessarily be opposed to extending Rondo if it means the Celts returning to contention sooner.

However, in my opinion, I don't think he's a 15 mil/yr player.

I think MAYBE the only two teams that would offer Rondo that much are the Lakers and Knicks and that's only because both those teams are desperate to return to being at least semi-respectable.

If you draw the line at $15 million a year for LaMarcus Aldridge, you're not getting him.  Same is true with Love.  If LMA were a free agent this year, and signed a max deal with someone aside from Portland, he'd get $19 million per year (assuming the rumored cap number of $63.2 million is accurate).  If the cap goes up the same amount next year, you're looking at a four-year deal that averages $20.5 million.  Heck, let's look at Kyrie Irving.  He's certain to be offered a 5-year max extension this fall.  If he accepts that, it's likely he'd stand to make $110 million over 5 years, or $22 million on average per year.  I'll concede that Kyrie might be better than Rondo.  But in a world where Kyrie gets $22 million a year, $15 million per year to Rondo would be a flat-out bargain.  If you guys want half a decade of mediocrity because Rondo might not accept $15 million per year when other star point guards are getting 50% more than that, fine.  I just hope Danny doesn't agree with you.

[gpap]

I wouldn't give Rondo that type of deal.

I think an offer like that would be more appropriate for another upcoming free agent (Aldridge, Love, Gasol, etc.)

Not that I would necessarily be opposed to extending Rondo if it means the Celts returning to contention sooner.

However, in my opinion, I don't think he's a 15 mil/yr player.

I think MAYBE the only two teams that would offer Rondo that much are the Lakers and Knicks and that's only because both those teams are desperate to return to being at least semi-respectable.

If you draw the line at $15 million a year for LaMarcus Aldridge, you're not getting him.  Same is true with Love.  If LMA were a free agent this year, and signed a max deal with someone aside from Portland, he'd get $19 million per year (assuming the rumored cap number of $63.2 million is accurate).   If the cap goes up the same amount next year, you're looking at a four-year deal that averages $20.5 million.  Heck, let's look at Kyrie Irving.  He's certain to be offered a 5-year max extension this fall.  If he accepts that, it's likely he'd stand to make $110 million over 5 years, or $22 million on average per year.  I'll concede that Kyrie might be better than Rondo.  But in a world where Kyrie gets $22 million a year, $15 million per year to Rondo would be a flat-out bargain.  If you guys want half a decade of mediocrity because Rondo might not accept $15 million per year when other star point guards are getting 50% more than that, fine.  I just hope Danny doesn't agree with you.

I wouldn't draw the line there. I would offer LMA and KLove 19 million per or more if I had it.

As for Rondo, here's the thing:

If keeping him for 15 mil/yr meant we could then land one or two other really good players, then yes, I'd be all for keeping him for that much money (maybe even more.)

I don't think Rondo is a max player BUT would I pay Rondo big bucks if it meant putting together a team capable of competing for a championship? Yes I would!

[slamtheking]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the new CBA encourage star players to wait until their contract is actually up in order to receive the highest possible extension offer? Which means that the NBA's desire to limit contract length is in conflict with their other desire to lock in stars to their original teams. Or maybe it was the same way in the last CBA as well?

You're right. It literally makes no sense for a player to sign an extension under the new CBA unless they're trying to lock up a new contract as soon as possible for stability. That's why I voted for "almost zero"

Exactly.

this.

makes the most financial sense for him to wait until his contract is up and then resign for the most years.  also the cap limit at that point would be higher and set a higher bar for what would be an appropriate deal for a top PG. 

that fact he hasn't signed an extension is much ado about nothing.  current CBA is set up so that it makes much more financial sense for players to wait unless they suspect they'll take a financial hit by waiting.