What do you do if we win the lottery?

[Chief]

  How does another year of tank talk and disappointment with the lack of talent on the roster sound?

Like I would be retiring from the blog.

Also, the C's could get the number one pick and still suck next year and we could have another year of tank talk. We could then win the lottery in 2015 and still suck the following year and have the blog littered with yet another year of tank talk.

Let's face it, drafting that high is no guarantee of a faster turnaround. Building through the draft is usually a very long and very painful process that guarantees nothing except having the absolute best prospects, usually extremely young players not ready to play winning NBA basketball, playing for your team.

It's a dirty truth:  Teams that draft high are teams that suck.  Teams that suck generally continue to suck, but because they suck, they continue to draft high.  This gives the fans hope that someday they'll stop sucking . . . as long as they can just suck it up to suck enough for just a little while longer . . .

It's a hideous cycle.  And, then of course, every once in a while a team like the Thunder comes along and makes everybody think it's a great strategy.   In reality, mostly it isn't.  It just sucks.

Generally that is true. But IMO, the Celtics have a lot of good young players, cap flexibility, and plenty of draft picks to either bring in more young talent or trade for a proven veteran. I think the Celtics have a very bright future.

[Smokeeye123]

Trade the pick and contend next year. I will be shocked if we actually draft a player with our lottery pick.

[crimson_stallion]

Out of the 'top three' prospects I'd have to go Wiggins - no brainer for me. 

Parker is already a so-so defender even at the college level.  Put him up against NBA level athletes / talent and he could become a serious liability on the defensive end.  Plus I see little potential for improvement, I just think he is who he is.  He already has the full complement of offensive skills so he isn't going to develop much in that part of his game, and his defense sure as hell won't improve, nor will he become a better athlete.  He might be the best player in draft right now, but I seriously doubt he will be two years from now.

Embiid has a real chance to become a superstar at the NBA level, and to be honest even his worst case scenario (elite defender and rebounder who can score inside-out) would be of great use for the Celtics. But the back issues worry me...a lot. I've seen too many elite rookies come in to the league hailed to be the next big thing, only to have their careers destroyed by injuries - Oden, Brandon Roy, Penny, Bynum, McGrady, Grant Hill, etc.  In recent years the great big-man prospects in particular seem to have suffered a lot from this.  If you're drafting 5th or lower then sure, I can justify taking a gamble on a high upside player with health issues, becasuse the player is so much better than the other available players that it's worth the risk.  If I'm chosing top 4 though in a draft with this much potential, the risk is just too high IMO.

Wiggins is healthy, but more importantly to me he's just such a complete player.  He probably has the highest upside of anybody in the draft, yet even right now he is already:

* A good shooter
* A good ball handler
* A good passer
* A good rebounder
* An elite defender
* An elite athlete
* Capable of playing multiple positions

A lot of people are saying Wiggins reminds them of Jeff Green because of his lack of killer instinct, but what people realise is that it's Green's skill set (not his mentality) that tends to hold him back from being a superstar.  He has a poor handle, he's not a great passer, he's not a great rebounder, he struggles driving to the left, etc.  Wiggins has none of those weaknesses in his game at all, and if he develops his game he will become a superstar, even if he does lack that killer instinct.

You need to think about guys like Duncan, Lebron, Jason Kidd, Kevin Garnett, etc.  You could argue that all of those guys lacked 'killer instinct'.  Duncan is a quiet and laid back as they come, Lebron was soft up until about two seasons ago, Kidd was always a quiet achiever, Kevin Garnett was always criticised for being too unselfish and not always being the guy who wants to take the last shot.  At the end of the day it doesn't matter - every one of those guys is a future hall of famer.

Ironically my second choice wouldn't be Parker or Embiid either - my #2 choice would be Exum.  I think his ceiling is right up there with Embiid and Wiggins, only he doesn't present the risks (health concerns, poor basketball IQ) that Embiid does.  He'll probably fly under the radar because he didn't play College in the states, but don't be surprised if 2 years from now, he is the best player from this draft.  Plus the benefit of taking Exum is two-fold.  If we keep him we can start him at PG alongside Bradley, and then trade Rondo for (a) a second top-10 lottery pick, or (b) fringe All-Star (Greg Monroe, Josh Smith, etc).  Just imagine the type of defense and speed you could get from a team like:

PG - Dante Exum
SG - Avery Bradley
SF - Jeff Green
PF - Josh Smith
C - Willie Cauley-Stein 

Could well be the best defensive lineup in the entire league...and then next season you can use the extra $15M cap space (Green and Bass come off the books) to sign a relatively young max-contract player.

My #3 choice would then be Embiid because lets be honest - even with his IQ, attitude and health issues, most teams would still trade half their roster to get Dwight Howard on their roster.  Embiid has the potential to be the next Dwight Howard at worst, and at best he could be the best center since the golden Robinson/Ewing/Hakeem/Shaq days.  A guy with tht type of upside (health risk or not) is either a building block of the future, or one hell of a trade chip. 

My #4 is a tough one.  I might actually shock the world, skip on Parker, and take Marcus Smart.  I think this kid is going to be better than people anticipate because:

* He is a two-way player (who can score and defend)
* He has the intangibles (leadership, work ethic, fearlessness) to be a franchise player
* He can play multiple positions and is very skilled at his position

I can very easilly see Smart becoming Dwyane Wade 2.0, and while he still needs to improve his jumper you have to remember...Wade has never really developed an above average jumper, but was still a top 2 SG in the league for up until the big three era began.

Then my #5 choice would probably be Parker, #6 Vonleh, #7 Aaron Gordon, #8 Randle.

[crimson_stallion]

  How does another year of tank talk and disappointment with the lack of talent on the roster sound?

Like I would be retiring from the blog.

Also, the C's could get the number one pick and still suck next year and we could have another year of tank talk. We could then win the lottery in 2015 and still suck the following year and have the blog littered with yet another year of tank talk.

Let's face it, drafting that high is no guarantee of a faster turnaround. Building through the draft is usually a very long and very painful process that guarantees nothing except having the absolute best prospects, usually extremely young players not ready to play winning NBA basketball, playing for your team.

It's a dirty truth:  Teams that draft high are teams that suck.  Teams that suck generally continue to suck, but because they suck, they continue to draft high.  This gives the fans hope that someday they'll stop sucking . . . as long as they can just suck it up to suck enough for just a little while longer . . .

It's a hideous cycle.  And, then of course, every once in a while a team like the Thunder comes along and makes everybody think it's a great strategy.   In reality, mostly it isn't.  It just sucks.

Generally that is true. But IMO, the Celtics have a lot of good young players, cap flexibility, and plenty of draft picks to either bring in more young talent or trade for a proven veteran. I think the Celtics have a very bright future.

One thing you need to consider about this 'cycle' is the nature of the team doing the drafting.

Teams that are bad and stay bad are usually teams that have poor history of success, poor management, poor team development, etc.  Teams like the Bobcats, Wizards, Cavs, Sacramento, etc.  These teams tend to draft phenomenally good players (John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Lebron, etc) but then they do things like:

1) Have poor coaching staff that the players do not respect
2) Have poor management who surround those players with weak talent
3) Have poor player development staff, so those players never reach their potential

When you have an organisation that has quality management and staff, a strong history of success and a core of quality players to surround your rookies with...then those rookies tend to develop with more success, and the teams tend to not stay bad long.  Think the Celtics (Al Jefferson turned in to Ray and KG, made them contenders again), the San Antonio (getting Duncan turned their franchise around), OKC (everyone knows their story), Chicago (getting Rose turned their franchise around), etc.

I think teams like Boston and the Lakers can get a lot of success out of a good draft.

[crimson_stallion]

Trade it for Noah and Taj Gibson...not that CHI would do that.

My point is that I'd rather Danny do a "Summer 2007" rather than a brick-by-brick rebuild.

Championship City, baby....I'd rather reload as fast as possible.

I'm sure the Lakers will be trying to shake every tree and put players around Kobe for him to win his 6th ring...no brick-by-brick rebuilding for Purp and Gold for next 2-3 years, I bet.

Now you're speaking my language

We had our one year of failure or should I say "rebuilding." Now, let's get it out of the way and return to being the most prestigious team in the NBA.

Save the rebuilding for the Bucks, Bobcats, Kings, Raptors and Jazz of the world.

You would do this?  I would't.

If we win the #1 pick in this draft, then any Parker, Embiid, Wiggins, Exum and Smart have (IMHO) the potential to be far, far better than Noah.

Looking at the Celtics current roster, do you really think that adding Noah transforms this team to a contender any time in the next 2-3 seasons?  I don't.  I think it makes is a team who sneaks in to the playoffs and then gets eliminated in the first round. 

Guys like Wiggins / Exum / Embiid / Parker / Smart will probably become future stars and could very possibly (2 or 3 years from now) become the franchise player to lead this team to contention.  If the Thunder drafted Duranted and traded him for Noah, do you think they'd be as good as they are now?  I dobut it.

[LilRip]

Trade the pick and contend next year. I will be shocked if we actually draft a player with our lottery pick.

I will be even more shocked if we're able to contend next year. This roster is awful and is more than "one piece away".

[cb8883]

I will stop posting if we end up with a top 3 pick. That's how confident I am that the Boston Celtics will be drafting 7-10. Danny Ainge blew it by not blowing it all the way up.

[PhoSita]

Trade the pick and contend next year. I will be shocked if we actually draft a player with our lottery pick.

I will be even more shocked if we're able to contend next year. This roster is awful and is more than "one piece away".

Yup.  Even if you could trade the pick for Kevin Love (the best player who might potentially be available), there'd need to be at least 2-3 other pretty big moves to get this roster ready to contend.  Rondo and Love does not a contender make.

[nickagneta]

Trade the pick and contend next year. I will be shocked if we actually draft a player with our lottery pick.

I will be even more shocked if we're able to contend next year. This roster is awful and is more than "one piece away".

Yup.  Even if you could trade the pick for Kevin Love (the best player who might potentially be available), there'd need to be at least 2-3 other pretty big moves to get this roster ready to contend.  Rondo and Love does not a contender make.

If the C's could burn through their picks and land Love in a trade, Marc Gasol in a trade and could use the TPE to sign and trade for Luol Deng and resign Bradley and tell him to go back to being a defensive bulldog, I gotta believe that a Rondo, Bradley, Deng, Love, Gasol group would be in contention in the East.

Yeah I know, pretty far fetched but so were the trades of 2007 before the 2007 draft lottery happened.

[Celtics18]

  How does another year of tank talk and disappointment with the lack of talent on the roster sound?

Like I would be retiring from the blog.

Also, the C's could get the number one pick and still suck next year and we could have another year of tank talk. We could then win the lottery in 2015 and still suck the following year and have the blog littered with yet another year of tank talk.

Let's face it, drafting that high is no guarantee of a faster turnaround. Building through the draft is usually a very long and very painful process that guarantees nothing except having the absolute best prospects, usually extremely young players not ready to play winning NBA basketball, playing for your team.

It's a dirty truth:  Teams that draft high are teams that suck.  Teams that suck generally continue to suck, but because they suck, they continue to draft high.  This gives the fans hope that someday they'll stop sucking . . . as long as they can just suck it up to suck enough for just a little while longer . . .

It's a hideous cycle.  And, then of course, every once in a while a team like the Thunder comes along and makes everybody think it's a great strategy.   In reality, mostly it isn't.  It just sucks.

Generally that is true. But IMO, the Celtics have a lot of good young players, cap flexibility, and plenty of draft picks to either bring in more young talent or trade for a proven veteran. I think the Celtics have a very bright future.

I agree with you on that.  I was making a case for not tanking over and over again.  That's all.  We are in good shape.  No need for a multi-year tank job in my opinion.

[PhoSita]

If the C's could burn through their picks and land Love in a trade, Marc Gasol in a trade and could use the TPE to sign and trade for Luol Deng and resign Bradley and tell him to go back to being a defensive bulldog, I gotta believe that a Rondo, Bradley, Deng, Love, Gasol group would be in contention in the East.

I'd say that's a coup nearly on par with the Garnett + Allen moves.  Doesn't result in a team as talented, though.

That team might not have a large window.  Plenty of injury concerns, too.  But that's why the players could be available.  I would be excited to watch that team.

[PhoSita]

 We are in good shape.  No need for a multi-year tank job in my opinion.

I agree, although I'm sure some will say the team is tanking if Rondo is traded for young players / future assets and the team heads into next season with a super inexperienced roster with loads of potential and room for growth.

I think it's entirely plausible the team barely manages more than 30 wins next season, yet they're actively "building" something.

[Celtics18]

If the C's could burn through their picks and land Love in a trade, Marc Gasol in a trade and could use the TPE to sign and trade for Luol Deng and resign Bradley and tell him to go back to being a defensive bulldog, I gotta believe that a Rondo, Bradley, Deng, Love, Gasol group would be in contention in the East.

I'd say that's a coup nearly on par with the Garnett + Allen moves.  Doesn't result in a team as talented, though.

That team might not have a large window.  Plenty of injury concerns, too.  But that's why the players could be available.  I would be excited to watch that team.

I would go so far as to say that a Rondo, Bradley, Deng, Olynyk, Gasol starting lineup would be at least a fringe contender in the east.  I'd take that team.