Parker to Stay in College?

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

Are we being serious talking about injuries? How many players are actually 1 and done compared to the amount that are 2+ yrs college guys? Not that many players in the NBA are 1 and done and they are just fine, you guys say it like he has a high chance of injuring himself, when in reality if you compare it to all the other players who stay it is extremely unlikely! You can talk about injury risk for any player, it just makes little to no sense making that part of the argument.

[Donoghus]

Are we being serious talking about injuries? How many players are actually 1 and done compared to the amount that are 2+ yrs college guys? Not that many players in the NBA are 1 and done and they are just fine, you guys say it like he has a high chance of injuring himself, when in reality if you compare it to all the other players who stay it is extremely unlikely! You can talk about injury risk for any player, it just makes little to no sense making that part of the argument.

I'm not saying its a high chance of injury at all but why even take the risk if you don't have to?

It's not like staying that second year in college increases your risk of injury or anything.  It's just that it presents another year where you're not getting paid, playing basketball, and risk getting injured where the alternative is you could already be in the NBA, getting paid guaranteed salary, and collecting endorsements.   

[D.o.s.]

I'm reposting this link from the McDermott Thread. It's well worth a read. I've included the second graph because I prefer All-NBA to All-Star as a way of measuring ability.

http://nba.si.com/2014/03/19/doug-mcdermott-nba-draft-college-four-year-one-and-done/

[fairweatherfan]

I doubt this'll happen to Parker, but I was just talking about this with a friend - how much money do you think Mitch McGary lost by staying in school this season?  Easily millions, possibly tens of millions if he winds up buried on somebody's bench by being picked later and possibly still being impaired from his injury.  Parker's always been more highly regarded, but that's close to the worst-case scenario here.

[LooseCannon]

Coach K. Probably has three more McDonalds All American signed and waiting anyway.

He actually does, Jahlil Okafor (#1, according to ESPN), Tyus Jones (#4), and McDonald's All-American slam dunk contest winner Grayson Allen (#20).

The chance to win an NCAA title with his good friend Okafor is considered one of the reasons that Parker is considering going back.

How much is it worth giving up if you thought your team would be the clear favorites to win the NCAA tournament next March?

I think it comes down to thinking with your head or thinking with your heart.

I disagree with the assumption that thinking with your head has to mean maximizing income, in line with some version of ethical egoism.

[nickagneta]

Imagine winning the lottery this year, getting Wiggins, the Clippers cratering next year and landing Parker with their unprotected pick. Not too shabby!!!

FTFY, nick. 

Like that too. Well done

[celticsfan8591]

If he somehow makes such a terrible decision as to turn down a guaranteed top 3 selection in the NBA draft, putting off and even jeopardizing the goal he's been working towards his whole life, in order to labor gratis for a good old boy club with billions of dollars in endowment in cahoots with a borderline criminal entertainment cartel, I really will feel sorry for Jabari.

I don't think we're allowed to use that sort of language about other people's religious beliefs.

  TP

[gpap]

As long as Brad and Abby tell us the positives about tonight's loss, I am all set.

[footey]

If Parker decides to go back to college next year, he is delusional, in which case it is a good thing we did not draft him!!

Just declare already, kid.

[Snakehead]

Certainly wouldn't help make the case for tanking this year

Yeah if only we had tried we would be a 2 seed right?

 

Yes, because watching an awful team assembled just for the chance to draft a needle in a haystack is so much more enjoyable than watching a competitive team every night.

I didn't know we were the 76ers.

We actually have assets and talent on this team.

[indeedproceed]

Are we being serious talking about injuries? How many players are actually 1 and done compared to the amount that are 2+ yrs college guys? Not that many players in the NBA are 1 and done and they are just fine, you guys say it like he has a high chance of injuring himself, when in reality if you compare it to all the other players who stay it is extremely unlikely! You can talk about injury risk for any player, it just makes little to no sense making that part of the argument.

I'm not saying its a high chance of injury at all but why even take the risk if you don't have to?

It's not like staying that second year in college increases your risk of injury or anything.  It's just that it presents another year where you're not getting paid, playing basketball, and risk getting injured where the alternative is you could already be in the NBA, getting paid guaranteed salary, and collecting endorsements.   

And for a NBA star, staying in school is more damaging economically than most. They're eligible for extension money kicking in after their 4th year. Parker is what..20? So he's looking at making big money now when he's 24. That one extra year means he gets his extension a year later, means he gets his next contract at 29, means he gets his next contract at 33, his last contract at 37. Not only does staying in school likely cost him around $10 million up front (one extra prime year lost), it  means if he doesn't season well later in his career, or has a catastrophic injury past 30, he's less likely to get that max extension later in his career.

Giving up a year has bigger possible ramifications than just the 4 million he loses from his rookie season in 14-15.

[nickagneta]

Are we being serious talking about injuries? How many players are actually 1 and done compared to the amount that are 2+ yrs college guys? Not that many players in the NBA are 1 and done and they are just fine, you guys say it like he has a high chance of injuring himself, when in reality if you compare it to all the other players who stay it is extremely unlikely! You can talk about injury risk for any player, it just makes little to no sense making that part of the argument.

I'm not saying its a high chance of injury at all but why even take the risk if you don't have to?

It's not like staying that second year in college increases your risk of injury or anything.  It's just that it presents another year where you're not getting paid, playing basketball, and risk getting injured where the alternative is you could already be in the NBA, getting paid guaranteed salary, and collecting endorsements.   

And for a NBA star, staying in school is more damaging economically than most. They're eligible for extension money kicking in after their 4th year. Parker is what..20? So he's looking at making big money now when he's 24. That one extra year means he gets his extension a year later, means he gets his next contract at 29, means he gets his next contract at 33, his last contract at 37. Not only does staying in school likely cost him around $10 million up front (one extra prime year lost), it  means if he doesn't season well later in his career, or has a catastrophic injury past 30, he's less likely to get that max extension later in his career.

Giving up a year has bigger possible ramifications than just the 4 million he loses from his rookie season in 14-15.

Never agreed with this argument. All things being equal, there's no telling when he could get injured, under what contract he could get injured enough to the point it effects his game, how long he has a career, whether he becomes good enough to warrant larger contracts or what effect natural degradation of his body will have on his game. All that is an unknown so its fair to say, whatever is going to happen is still going to happen in the same time frame and that makes the only difference what he is not getting his first year.

Also, does taking a year off of NBA ball to play college ball cause him to play longer because of the lesser wear and tear a year of college ball is on the body as compared to a pro year? Who knows?

[indeedproceed]

Are we being serious talking about injuries? How many players are actually 1 and done compared to the amount that are 2+ yrs college guys? Not that many players in the NBA are 1 and done and they are just fine, you guys say it like he has a high chance of injuring himself, when in reality if you compare it to all the other players who stay it is extremely unlikely! You can talk about injury risk for any player, it just makes little to no sense making that part of the argument.

I'm not saying its a high chance of injury at all but why even take the risk if you don't have to?

It's not like staying that second year in college increases your risk of injury or anything.  It's just that it presents another year where you're not getting paid, playing basketball, and risk getting injured where the alternative is you could already be in the NBA, getting paid guaranteed salary, and collecting endorsements.   

And for a NBA star, staying in school is more damaging economically than most. They're eligible for extension money kicking in after their 4th year. Parker is what..20? So he's looking at making big money now when he's 24. That one extra year means he gets his extension a year later, means he gets his next contract at 29, means he gets his next contract at 33, his last contract at 37. Not only does staying in school likely cost him around $10 million up front (one extra prime year lost), it  means if he doesn't season well later in his career, or has a catastrophic injury past 30, he's less likely to get that max extension later in his career.

Giving up a year has bigger possible ramifications than just the 4 million he loses from his rookie season in 14-15.

Never agreed with this argument. All things being equal, there's no telling when he could get injured, under what contract he could get injured enough to the point it effects his game, how long he has a career, whether he becomes good enough to warrant larger contracts or what effect natural degradation of his body will have on his game. All that is an unknown so its fair to say, whatever is going to happen is still going to happen in the same time frame and that makes the only difference what he is not getting his first year.

Also, does taking a year off of NBA ball to play college ball cause him to play longer because of the lesser wear and tear a year of college ball is on the body as compared to a pro year? Who knows?

I've thought long and hard about this in the past, because I'm prone to fantasy. And I think ultimately 'we don't know the future' doesn't actually provide a viable counter argument to the money side of this. I'm not saying declaring now is the only defendable option, but it is the lesser choice money-wise, because the uncertainty of a pro career isn't a proper counter to it. Yes, we can't know the future, so we'll never know when Parker's body breaks down due to injury or Father Time, but that's counterbalanced by not knowing how his extra year in college goes. If he suffers injury, especially one that lingers beyond his college years, or if he fails to improve or fails to win anything of import; there is just as much uncertainty there. Without argument he's giving up a year of around 4 million. Without doubt he puts his extension from his rookie contract (and all future extensions) a year farther off. That uncertainty isn't dismissible by 'we don't know the future' because it's irrefutable. It's possible staying in college might help him refine his game to make him a better player over the course of his career, but that possibly isn't really higher than the possibly that he could suffer injury. All unknowns on the table, declaring this year is the only viable option if he's making choices based on dollar signs. 

[Sketch5]

Does anyone thing that Parker just doesn't think he's ready? Just because some of you THINK he's ready, doesn't mean he actually is ready. It's up to him and his choice. 

So he gets injured, and is out millions. It's not like he was going to share it with any of us, and thats up to him if he wants to stay one more year.

It seems like he wants to win a championship at the college level. Maybe the one and done left a bad taste in his mouth, and he wants an other shot. You know, I like that. That shows me that he's more into the winning than the money. That shows me when he's ready for the next level he's going to come to ball and win.

He didn't look dominate all the time, and was really bad in the tourney. This gives him time to work on his body which needs a little work, and his game which needs some tweaking. He wont get that time if he enters the NBA this year to really work like he could staying one more year. Yeah you get better when you play higher level players, but he couldn't lead his team to a victory in an important game. And that should be the next step. Climb the ladder, not jump off the cliff.

Yeah I wish we could snag him this year, it's probably our best chance at a young elite player for at least a couple years, until Brooklyn starts sending us their pics, and thats not even for sure. I just wouldn't want the kid until he felt he was ready to leave. That could cause more damage than good.   

[D.o.s.]

It seems like he wants to win a championship at the college level. Maybe the one and done left a bad taste in his mouth, and he wants an other shot. You know, I like that. That shows me that he's more into the winning than the money. That shows me when he's ready for the next level he's going to come to ball and win.

What if he goes on a mission? What if he doesn't go into the NBA but doesn't head back to the NCAA, either? Does that mean he cares about LDS more than winning or money?

Also, because I know this is a fairly open-minded blog about science, and research, and methods of inquiry, it's worth noting that there's some support for the idea that rookie NBA players actually progress more than 2nd year NCAA players -- go figure.

On average, the sophomores who returned performed only marginally better than they did as freshmen.

    Amazingly, of the 14 sophomores who qualify (which requires playing at least 500 minutes all three seasons, a criterion that knocks out Blake Griffin, among others), nine rated worse as sophomores than freshmen. That includes basically all the high-profile freshmen who passed on the draft and saw their stock fall. [...]

    Although [the one-and-done] group rated slightly better as NCAA freshmen, which makes sense given their perceived higher upside, 15 of the 21 improved as NBA rookies relative to their translated NCAA performance. On average, their win percentage went up by 10.5 percent, better even than we'd expect from players of this age.

    Now, this study could be picking up on the superior potential of one-and-done prospects, a possible factor in why they generally were more coveted after one year in college. However, the development advantage disappears by the time both groups are in the NBA. In their third year out of high school -- the rookie season for the sophomores and second year for the freshmen -- the sophomores actually improve slightly more. But this difference isn't nearly enough to make up the development they missed out on between their two years of college.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10588150/nba-why-nba-develops-players-better-college/refresh/true

This is, of course, far from the final word on whether it's beneficial for players to go to the NBA or stay in school, as there are about a billion additional factors that play into it.