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Author Topic: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.  (Read 59607 times)

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8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« on: April 01, 2014, 11:04:07 AM »

Offline chambers

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Looking at the last 8 games, we are quietly on track for a 26 win season and the 5th worse record. This leaves us with a 29.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick and an 8.8% chance of the number 1 pick.
It also leaves us with a 55% chance of a top 5 pick.

What's helping our cause?

 *Charlotte, ATL, Washington and hopefully Cleveland will be playing their butts off for Playoff contention and trying to find playoff form.
 *Detroit should be hungry for a win after playing the Pacers and Nets and likely losing both. Interestingly we are playing Detroit on a night where both teams are on the second of a back to back- so Rondo won't play and we will have creamed the 76ers the night before...

*Rondo will also sit the Cavs game which helps us enormously.... that's 2 out of 8 games he won't play.

The only team that may bump us up to 6th are the Sacramento Kings. They have a brutal home stretch and could very well lose all 8 games. We have to pray they beat the Lakers tonight and get ahead of us by 4 wins- because they are currently only 3 ahead of us after luckily beating New Orleans last night (thank god). They also split with us in the season match up so let's root for them on this last stretch.

I'd say 3 more wins and a final record of 26 wins 56 losses with the 4th or 5th worse record.

Looking at our last 8 games/opponents and their situations...

Wizards: in hunt for playoff positioning, warming up and playing team ball. Loss.
Philly: Are taking tanking to a new level. Win.
Pistons:Rondo sitting out 2nd of back to back. Pistons will have had losses vs Pacers+Nets. Loss without Rondo.
Hawks: 2nd of a back to back for ATL here. Dangerous game, but at least it's in ATL. 50/50
Bobcats: Jefferson is dominating and we don't have anyone that can stop him as they power towards the playoffs. Loss
Cavs:No Rondo and 2nd night of back to back for us. They may be trying to scrape into playoffs too but no Rondo= loss
76ers: Win
Wizards:last game of season, we have something to prove before summer Wizards will hopefully still be playing for a playoff seed and need the win. 50/50

If we get lucky and lose just the two Sixers games with 25 wins I'd be stoked but we'll be pretty much 5th 'seed' anyway unless the Lakers explode and throw games. We can't catch the Jazz or Magic realistically so we're 5th at best.

This leaves us with a 29.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick and an 8.8% chance of the number 1 pick if I understand the lottery system correctly.

So there it is. We have slightly less than a 1 in 3 shot at a top 3 pick, and 1 in 10 shot at the number 1 pick.
Pick your top 5 guys. We've got a 55% chance of getting one of them if we want them.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2014, 11:10:59 AM by chambers »
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2014, 11:12:55 AM »

Offline cometboy

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one thing to also keep in mind is the way the lottery system works.

The 4th pick will likely go to one of the 3 worst records that fall out of the top 3 picks. It would really be unlikely for the 3 worst records to secure the top 3 picks. Therefore, the 4th and maybe 5th teams will slip down to accommodate the slippage form the top 3.

I would be happy with Exum if we had the 4th pick, but don't see any way we will get the 4th pick unless we are in the top 3 worst records and don't get a top 3 pick. In other words, we would have to catch both Utah AND Orlando. Probably, only way we do that is if we run the table in reverse (i.e., lose out) and get lucky.

CB
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2014, 02:33:12 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Quote from: cometboy on April 01, 2014, 11:12:55 AM
one thing to also keep in mind is the way the lottery system works.

The 4th pick will likely go to one of the 3 worst records that fall out of the top 3 picks. It would really be unlikely for the 3 worst records to secure the top 3 picks. Therefore, the 4th and maybe 5th teams will slip down to accommodate the slippage form the top 3.
I would be happy with Exum if we had the 4th pick, but don't see any way we will get the 4th pick unless we are in the top 3 worst records and don't get a top 3 pick. In other words, we would have to catch both Utah AND Orlando. Probably, only way we do that is if we run the table in reverse (i.e., lose out) and get lucky.

CB
Um, the fourth and fifth teams would be a prime reason why a top three team will slip back.  So rather than moving back, these teams are just as likely to be moving up in your scenerio. 
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2014, 02:42:44 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I would suggest taking a look at players that might fall in the 5-8 range and really selling yourself on those players.

Marcus Smart might be the next Dwyane Wade!  Maybe Exum will fall to us and he'll be the next Penny!  Vonleh could be Bosh 2.0!  We could get a great trade return for Julius Randle!


That way, if we do happen to slip into the top 3 and draft one of the 3 players with actual superstar potential in this draft, it will be a pleasant surprise.  More likely than not, we'll get one of the aforementioned guys.
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2014, 02:48:49 PM »

Offline cometboy

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Quote from: droopdog7 on April 01, 2014, 02:33:12 PM
Quote from: cometboy on April 01, 2014, 11:12:55 AM
one thing to also keep in mind is the way the lottery system works.

The 4th pick will likely go to one of the 3 worst records that fall out of the top 3 picks. It would really be unlikely for the 3 worst records to secure the top 3 picks. Therefore, the 4th and maybe 5th teams will slip down to accommodate the slippage form the top 3.
I would be happy with Exum if we had the 4th pick, but don't see any way we will get the 4th pick unless we are in the top 3 worst records and don't get a top 3 pick. In other words, we would have to catch both Utah AND Orlando. Probably, only way we do that is if we run the table in reverse (i.e., lose out) and get lucky.

CB
Um, the fourth and fifth teams would be a prime reason why a top three team will slip back.  So rather than moving back, these teams are just as likely to be moving up in your scenerio.

I suspect we're not communicating very well. I'm just saying the lottery is only for the top 3 picks. If the 3 worst record get the top 3 picks, then the rest all go in order (i.e., 5th worst record has the 5th pick). I don't believe there has ever been a case where the 3 worst records ever got the top 3 picks, so I don't think hat will happen this year. If someone, say the 8th worse record, sneaks into the top 3 during the lottery, then one of the 3 worst teams will slip to the 4th spot, and the 4th will slip to the 5th, all the way until the 8th spot, then they will stay in order.

The point being, the advantage of having the 4th worst record, is that you have a better chance of moving into the top 3, but if you don't you will slip to the 4th or lower. In other words, it's extremely unlikely the 4th worse record will actually get the 4th pick. Same with the 5th pick.

I don't think the 4th worse team has the same chance of moving into the top 3 as one of the 3 worst teams has of moving down. It's almost a certainty that one of the 3 worse teams will move out of the top 3. That cannot be said of the 4th worse record, probably because there are so many other teams in the lottery lowering the odds.

I wish they would simplify the lottery  ;)

CB
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2014, 02:52:24 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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If I am a betting man and looking at the schedules of the teams involved, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Celtics finish anywhere between 4th and 6th with 6th most likely an 5th 2nd most likely. Something like 50% chance to finish 6th, 40% chance of landing 5th and just a 10% chance of finishing the season with the 4th worst record.

Just my guess and I am happy with them landing in any of those spots and hopefully landing a top 3 selection.
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2014, 02:59:44 PM »

Offline BigAlTheFuture

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Why is it unlikely we catch Utah? They're only a half game up and they're more than capable of beating a few teams. I think we stand pat as well but I wouldn't rule out jumping ahead of Utah in the loss column.
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2014, 03:07:15 PM »

Offline cometboy

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Quote from: BigAlTheFuture on April 01, 2014, 02:59:44 PM
Why is it unlikely we catch Utah? They're only a half game up and they're more than capable of beating a few teams. I think we stand pat as well but I wouldn't rule out jumping ahead of Utah in the loss column.

On the surface, we can certainly catch Utah, but the 2 games against Philly concern me. Not only that, but this team is capable of playing some ball when the right combos are on the court. Even 2 or 3 wins probably secure the 5th or 6th spot. I just don't think we're trying as hard as some other teams (to tank that is).  ;)

CB
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2014, 03:32:07 PM »

Offline merkins

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Quote from: BigAlTheFuture on April 01, 2014, 02:59:44 PM
Why is it unlikely we catch Utah? They're only a half game up and they're more than capable of beating a few teams. I think we stand pat as well but I wouldn't rule out jumping ahead of Utah in the loss column.

Problem is that Utah has had some very winnable games lately and looked awful.  Dont know if they are tanking or just playing this bad right now but two games against Philly and no dominant teams left on our schedule suggests we wont be worse than them,
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2014, 03:46:30 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Out of curiosity, what is the tie-breaking procedure for the draft?  Or, do they not break ties and simply assign teams that are tied the same number of ping png balls (figuratively speaking of course).
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #10 on: April 01, 2014, 03:56:19 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Quote from: droopdog7 on April 01, 2014, 03:46:30 PM
Out of curiosity, what is the tie-breaking procedure for the draft?  Or, do they not break ties and simply assign teams that are tied the same number of ping png balls (figuratively speaking of course).
They split the ping pong balls equally and flip coins to determine who gets the higher base "slot".

So similar to how we won coin flips against the Thunder/SA/Portland in 2009-2010
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #11 on: April 01, 2014, 05:46:22 PM »

Offline chambers

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Quote from: BigAlTheFuture on April 01, 2014, 02:59:44 PM
Why is it unlikely we catch Utah? They're only a half game up and they're more than capable of beating a few teams. I think we stand pat as well but I wouldn't rule out jumping ahead of Utah in the loss column.

Looking at their schedule they're probably winning 2 of 8 at most
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2014, 06:05:46 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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Quote from: chambers on April 01, 2014, 11:04:07 AM
Looking at the last 8 games, we are quietly on track for a 26 win season and the 5th worse record. This leaves us with a 29.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick and an 8.8% chance of the number 1 pick.
It also leaves us with a 55% chance of a top 5 pick.

Don't forget to mention that the 5th team's odds of getting the 6th pick are at 36%, the highest odds of any pick, followed by the odds of picking 5th (26%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Lottery#Process
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2014, 06:18:00 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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I'd just like to point out that I called 26 games way back when.

Silver lining.
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Re: 8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.
« Reply #14 on: April 01, 2014, 07:43:52 PM »

Offline cometboy

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Quote from: Lucky17 on April 01, 2014, 06:05:46 PM
Quote from: chambers on April 01, 2014, 11:04:07 AM
Looking at the last 8 games, we are quietly on track for a 26 win season and the 5th worse record. This leaves us with a 29.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick and an 8.8% chance of the number 1 pick.
It also leaves us with a 55% chance of a top 5 pick.

Don't forget to mention that the 5th team's odds of getting the 6th pick are at 36%, the highest odds of any pick, followed by the odds of picking 5th (26%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Lottery#Process

I totally understand the 36% odds, but the 26% odds of picking 5th actually shock me. There is virtually a guarantee that someone will break into the top 3 and slip one of the worst 3 teams, which would in turn slip the 5th to the 6th. It seems to me the odds of staying at 4th or 5th are low percentage, not a fairly reasonable 26%.

Am I missing something?

CB
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