Say we strike gold and land Exum

[kozlodoev]

If we strike gold with Exum, that would mean that someone picked him before us.

[jaketwice]

For those posters who think the Cs can do better at the 4th pick then Exum who do they consider a better prospect? The consensuses right now seems to be that 1-3 is Embiid, Wiggins and Parker in no particulare order. Exum is consistently the 4th guy and I have read that some scouts have him as the #1 this year. I would say those four are Tier 1 in this draft with Randle, Smart and Gordon making up the tier 2.

Few teams lead by point guards have ever won championships (90s Pistons are all I can think of). By and large, it is centers and wing players who bring championships. We have Rondo, and Bradley. ...I think Randle or Gordon are both better choices if we have the fourth pick.

We don't need Exum.

[jaketwice]

Wouldn't it be more interesting to draft Wiggins and put him at the 2 spot? He's just as explosive as Exum and obviously has far more potential as a defender due to his size 6'8 and huge wingspan 7'0. Exum probably has better passing instincts but I believe Wiggins' shooting and rebounding makes him a better overall player than Exum. I'll be ecstatic to have Wiggins as our SG of the future, Exum would be great too, but not at the expense of the 1st pick.

Agreed completely. Wiggins at SG should be our choice, if we get the first pick.

[fitzhickey]

For those posters who think the Cs can do better at the 4th pick then Exum who do they consider a better prospect? The consensuses right now seems to be that 1-3 is Embiid, Wiggins and Parker in no particulare order. Exum is consistently the 4th guy and I have read that some scouts have him as the #1 this year. I would say those four are Tier 1 in this draft with Randle, Smart and Gordon making up the tier 2.

Few teams lead by point guards have ever won championships (90s Pistons are all I can think of). By and large, it is centers and wing players who bring championships. We have Rondo, and Bradley. ...I think Randle or Gordon are both better choices if we have the fourth pick.

We don't need Exum.

Magic on the Lakers was successful, Lebron is a point forward, and I consider DWade of 2005-06 a point guard.

not many teams win championships, but many of the elite teams are led by point guards.

West was the leader of the sixties Laker team, Walt Frazier led the Knicks 73 championship team, Sidney Moncrief was crucial to that mid 80's Bucks playoff team, Gary Payton was key to that Sonics team.

The league's history is littered with successful teams led by point guards.

if you want to take a defensive tweener with no offensive ability whatsoever, fine. But that makes no sense compared to an 18 year old Exum who has bucket loads of potential.

[pearljammer10]

Mcdermott can fit into that role perfectly

Did you like Adam Morrison, too, just curious?

Thats a common, yet unfair expectation for Doug McDermott. Doesn't he remind anyone of Wally Szcerbiack?  And would anyone be upset if you got a player of Wally's caliber with our late first round pick?

That is a great comparison and I think it's spot on. I actually think you are more right than you realize

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=kyle-korver&i=1&p1=wally-szczerbiak&p2=doug-mcdermott

While Szcerbiack might have been a little better rounded in college the numbers are eerily similar. Added Korver because that is the most common comparison I've heard. Yours is better imo

Mcdermott can fit into that role perfectly

Did you like Adam Morrison, too, just curious?

Thats a common, yet unfair expectation for Doug McDermott. Doesn't he remind anyone of Wally Szcerbiack?  And would anyone be upset if you got a player of Wally's caliber with our late first round pick?

I would be.

Then you didn't watch him in Minnesota. Getting that level of production in the mid-to-late is a steal. Wally was #6 overall in 1999 btw.

His best year definitely stands out. 19ppg on 51% shooting and 46% from 3 is absurd. With 5 boards and 3 assists yet no defense.

Other than than he only really had 7 healthy seasons. 3 of which were in Minnesota. Where he averaged roughly; 14 points a game, 50% from the field, 36% from 3...Without being really any good in any other category except a handful of rebounds per game.

[nickagneta]

For those posters who think the Cs can do better at the 4th pick then Exum who do they consider a better prospect? The consensuses right now seems to be that 1-3 is Embiid, Wiggins and Parker in no particulare order. Exum is consistently the 4th guy and I have read that some scouts have him as the #1 this year. I would say those four are Tier 1 in this draft with Randle, Smart and Gordon making up the tier 2.

Few teams lead by point guards have ever won championships (90s Pistons are all I can think of). By and large, it is centers and wing players who bring championships. We have Rondo, and Bradley. ...I think Randle or Gordon are both better choices if we have the fourth pick.

We don't need Exum.

Magic on the Lakers was successful, Lebron is a point forward, and I consider DWade of 2005-06 a point guard.

not many teams win championships, but many of the elite teams are led by point guards.

West was the leader of the sixties Laker team, Walt Frazier led the Knicks 73 championship team, Sidney Moncrief was crucial to that mid 80's Bucks playoff team, Gary Payton was key to that Sonics team.

The league's history is littered with successful teams led by point guards.

if you want to take a defensive tweener with no offensive ability whatsoever, fine. But that makes no sense compared to an 18 year old Exum who has bucket loads of potential.

Not sure Gordon, Smart, Vonleh, or Ennis have any less potential to be great than Exum and due to the lack of film out there on Exum and the fact he is a foreign commodity makes it much more likely he has higher potential to not meet lofty expectations.

Drafting younger unprovenforeigners that have little film on them but have been called having potentially great NBA upsides is a massive gamble. Vesely, Biyombo, Rubio, Jianlian, and Sene all had more film on them than Exum and were extremely highly regarded. All were selected top ten and all have been massive disappointments, IMHO. About the only 2 foreign players chosen top ten over the last ten years that were highly regarded younger foreign players chosen high in the draft that have met expectations are Gallinari and Valanciunas.

Yes, Mirotic, Bogdanovic, Marc Gasol, Pekovic and others are foreign players that have succeeded here in the NBA or will succeed but they were pretty much established Euroleague pros who's contracts and buyouts made selecting them high a major risk so they were selected in the 2nd round. But the success rate of highly drafted foreign players over the last ten years has not been good.

For these reasons, drafting Exum scares the heck out of me. I am not saying he will bust. I am not saying he won't be everything some people are claiming he will be. Just saying that I would feel better having seen a bunch of film on him against superior or equal talent. My guess is most scouts and GMs probably feel the same way.

[nostar]

His best year definitely stands out. 19ppg on 51% shooting and 46% from 3 is absurd. With 5 boards and 3 assists yet no defense.

Other than than he only really had 7 healthy seasons. 3 of which were in Minnesota. Where he averaged roughly; 14 points a game, 50% from the field, 36% from 3...Without being really any good in any other category except a handful of rebounds per game.

First of all he averaged 49% FG and 40% from 3pt during his tenure in Minnesota . For his career his TS% is 57.3%. Compare that to Ray Allen's TS% of 58% and you can get an idea of how good he was. With the exception of Ginobli there isn't anyone drafted after him that was significantly better. And since he was #6 overall that is actually saying something. Ok Shawn Marion. That guy is also underrated.

But maybe your bar for mid-first round picks is higher than mine. Getting a guy who averages 14/4 for his career on 48% FG, 40% 3PT and 86% from FT is really a nice find. For a comparison you could look at Michael Redd. His career stats are 19/4 on 45% and 38% from 3. Now Redd scored a little more but not as efficiently and Redd is widely considered a great shooter. There will be gems in the late first round almost every year but rare is the Tony Parker or Rajon Rondo. Getting a Szczerbiak-like guy at picks 15-20 is a good day.

[BballTim]

Mcdermott can fit into that role perfectly

Did you like Adam Morrison, too, just curious?

Nope.

But the difference between Morrison and Mcdermott is that we have a totally different expectation from these guys. Adam Morrison was overhyped to be the "next Larry Bird" and that was simply unrealistic and dumb. He was picked way too high at the 3rd and he coudn't live up to where he's picked. If he were to be picked in the mid to late first round, I believe he might still be the nba now playing off the bench, something like Joel Anthony's role tho.

  That makes no sense. Bad players who were drafted way too high stay in the league just as long as bad players drafted much later. Look at players like Pervis or Kandi-man or Eddy Curry.

[byennie]

Assuming we're at Rondo / Exum / Sullinger, I could see drafting McDermott or Hood and then dangling Olynyk and/or picks for a defensive center.

Rondo / Exum / McDermott or Hood / Sullinger would have a ton of ways to score on you, but a defensive eraser would give them a chance to win. Getting a SF that can't be left alone from 3PT would open things up for Exum and Sullinger whoever that player is. I think my ideal top 8 next year might be:

Rondo / Bradley
Exum / Hood
Green / Hood
Sullinger / Veteran big man
- Defensive Center

Hood and Exum could be groomed behind Bradley and Green.

[Donoghus]

I'm not sure landing Exum is strking gold nevermind silver or bronze.

If Exum lands on the Celtics, it's almost certainly due to the Celtics not landing a top 3 pick.

Exum doesn't really fill much of a current need right now, either.  Parker/Wiggins/Embiid would all fit great needs for this team right now. 

[KG Living Legend]

 Hey Nick, Your one of my favorite posters so I'll give you the dirt on Exum the way I see it. I give him a 70% chance of being awesome in the league. You do have a better chance at a sure thing in Smart or Randle. But Exum Ceiling is worth the risk IMO.

 What concerns me about him is his lack of strength. And he could go Darko on you. However this kid is lightning fast with the ball and with the NBA rules he will be a mismatch at multiple positions. He does not have an outstanding vertical  leap although it is good. But he compares to Penny Hardaway, an inch shorter but probably even quicker off the dribble with a legendary first step, he blows buy people and finishes at 100 miles per hour.  Add to that he has a great stroke with good range, and he's an outstanding passer, and is the Australian prodigy.

 And I do respect Australian Basketball. And he is supposed to be there best prospect in the last 20 Years. A Rondo Exum back court could be the best in the East.

 

[guava_wrench]

Wouldn't it be more interesting to draft Wiggins and put him at the 2 spot? He's just as explosive as Exum and obviously has far more potential as a defender due to his size 6'8 and huge wingspan 7'0. Exum probably has better passing instincts but I believe Wiggins' shooting and rebounding makes him a better overall player than Exum. I'll be ecstatic to have Wiggins as our SG of the future, Exum would be great too, but not at the expense of the 1st pick.

I think the OP meant with our first draft pick - not the first overall draft pick. Currently, we are looking to be somewhere in the 4-7 range which is where Exum is slotted to go.

If he meant 4-7 range, why would he call it 'gold'?

[SHAQATTACK]

Gold would be Embiid , Wiggins or Parker for me ..I agree with Donoghus post.."

No sure what the point would be to draft him for Celtics ......I would be stunned and I guess Rondo would be too.

[guava_wrench]

For those posters who think the Cs can do better at the 4th pick then Exum who do they consider a better prospect? The consensuses right now seems to be that 1-3 is Embiid, Wiggins and Parker in no particulare order. Exum is consistently the 4th guy and I have read that some scouts have him as the #1 this year. I would say those four are Tier 1 in this draft with Randle, Smart and Gordon making up the tier 2.

Few teams lead by point guards have ever won championships (90s Pistons are all I can think of). By and large, it is centers and wing players who bring championships. We have Rondo, and Bradley. ...I think Randle or Gordon are both better choices if we have the fourth pick.

We don't need Exum.

We don't need Randle either. This is like saying "since PGs can't lead you to a title, instead of picking up Chris Paul, we should pick up Luol Deng". Sorry, but Deng isn't going to lead the team to a title either.

My concern would be balance. I am not a fan of having our 2 best players at the guard position. I don't buy the PG can't lead a team to a title at all. The problem is that if you can find a guy with the same skill level as the best PG yet you is 6'9", it will be a lot harder to stop him and his team will succeed. That means you take a Lebron over a Chris Paul any day. That doesn't mean you pick a Randle over an Exum.

[mmmmm]

Wouldn't it be more interesting to draft Wiggins and put him at the 2 spot? He's just as explosive as Exum and obviously has far more potential as a defender due to his size 6'8 and huge wingspan 7'0. Exum probably has better passing instincts but I believe Wiggins' shooting and rebounding makes him a better overall player than Exum. I'll be ecstatic to have Wiggins as our SG of the future, Exum would be great too, but not at the expense of the 1st pick.

Agreed completely. Wiggins at SG should be our choice, if we get the first pick.

I totally concur with these two comments.

To me, striking gold is getting the 1st pick.  And if we do, I'd prefer to pick Wiggins, play him at SG and let Avery walk (and I'm an Avery fan).    A perimeter of Rondo+Wiggins+Green for the next few years sounds awesome.  Neither Green nor Wiggins are 'ball-dominant' and should work great as spacers/slashers with Rondo.  And the defense would be fantastic.

Getting the 2nd pick would be silver.  Getting the 3rd pick would be bronze.  Those picks mean taking whomever of Wiggins/Parker/Embiid remain.

Getting the 4th pick and 'having' to take Exum would be whatever comes after bronze.