New Plan: Draft Wiggins/Exum/Parker, trade our second 1st for Larry Sanders

[saltlover]

As opposed to an overpaid Asik, who's going to ask for, and get, a deal similar to Sanders's after his last year on the current contract?

A deal similar to Sanders' would probably be a bargain relative to Asik's production.

And that's the crux of the debate between the two, right here -- whether you agree with LC's thesis.

I go back and forth on it, but generally I prefer the idea of a locked-in player to one that'd need to be renegotiated with after one season on a team that's probably not going to be great.

edit: of course, FWF's got a good point above this, too.

I think having the locked-in player matters also depending who we pick with our first pick (or second, if you instead trade a 2015 pick for the Asik/Sanders/whomever).  If we got Embiid, or even Willie Cauley-Stein, I'd want Asik, to give the drafted center a year to adjust to the NBA before playing major minutes (especially with Embiid's injury).  In this case, Asik is a good play for next year, as he makes our team more competitive, encouraging Rondo to stay, while allowing the rookie center to not be thrown into the fire.  However, having Sanders for four more years suddenly makes everything redundant.  (This may make more sense if we got WCS, if you don't think he can be a viable starter in the NBA, but he'd block Embiid or be a more expensive backup than Wallace before too long).  If we don't get a center in the draft, then I'd prefer Sanders, since I'm not convinced Asik won't ask for more than Sanders' $44 million/4 years.

[LooseCannon]

This has been my issue with trading for Asik all along - he's a fine player but as a high-level complement to star talent.  He wouldn't have made us contenders this year, and probably wouldn't next year either.  Which means we've got to resign or S+T him to get any contention-relevant value.

I think he fits into Ainge possible plan (one of several that he probably developing simultaneously) of building more of an ensemble along the lines of the 2004 Detroit Pistons without an MVP-caliber star.  The expiration date on his contract means he isn't an impediment to switching gears and trying to acquire a superstar through free agency in 2015.

[Mr October]

The Asik vs Sanders debate is a tough one.

What is lost here, and in the OP's proposal is that I really don't think Milwaukee is so desperate to move Sanders that they are willing to do so for a single draft pick in the 18-20 range. Sanders could still be part of their future.

Now Houston on the other hand.... Asik is leaving that team next summer regardless. He is also owed a lot of money next season just to be a backup to Dwight. He might be gettable for that pick and the Pierce trade exception or something like that.

[Sketch5]

I'd rather try to move up with our second and snag Cauley-Stein. He seems similar to Sanders, will be way less money and hopefully none of the knuckleheadness that Sanders comes with.

Plus you can mold him into the Celtics style of play. Sanders may fight that more than a rook. Im not sure how well Cauley-Stein's game will translate to the NBA, but if he puts the work in I could see a Sanders/DeAndrea Jordan type center. Hopefully with better FT shooting.

[vjcsmoke]

Well the thing with Asik is this, are you really going to give up a mid 1st in a good draft for what might be just a 1 year rental of a defense first center or would you rather get somebody who will be there as a building block for a few years in Sanders?  I'd rather go the latter route.

I'm not worried about saving 2015 money, because until we get rid of Wallace, we're not really in a position to sign any big name free agents anyways.

As for why the Bucks would give up Sanders just take a peek at their team salaries:
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/milwaukee.htm

Sanders would be their highest paid player over the next 4 years and they have Ilyasova who could arguably play the stretch 5 locked up at 7.9m per year.  If we offered them our mid 1st and say Brandon Bass, their team could look a lot more balanced and they'd save salary cap space as well.

As for the Celtics, it's pretty obvious why we couldn't close out close games this year in the 4th, no rim protector for crunch time.  Sanders is an established elite defender with more athleticism than Asik imo and he's young.  Why not trade for him instead of gambling that pick #17 or 18 will turn into a serviceable NBA player?

The Asik vs Sanders debate is a tough one.

What is lost here, and in the OP's proposal is that I really don't think Milwaukee is so desperate to move Sanders that they are willing to do so for a single draft pick in the 18-20 range. Sanders could still be part of their future.

[vjcsmoke]

Point taken but here are the issues with Cauley-Stein:

1.  He's going to take time to develop.  As is the case with MOST big men.  He's pretty raw and probably won't be ready to be a starter until year 3.  Much like Perkins, if he ever turns into a Perkins type.  Meanwhile, Sanders will be ready to start from Day 1, as soon as we make the trade.

2.  He might never reach his ceiling.  Instead of getting the next Larry Sanders, we might be getting the next Fab Melo.  Sanders is already a proven elite rim protector.  Not saying Cauley-Stein doesn't have the ceiling, but it's tough to predict whether a college kid can take it to the next level as an NBA big where everyone is bigger, tougher, faster, stronger, and more athletic.

3.  As you already mentioned Cauley-Stein probably won't last until our second 1st round pick.  Why gamble on a guy who might not even be there for our pick?  I think it would be better to take the most talented guy available with our top pick, trade for Sanders, and use our second rounder on a boom/bust pick.  But with our 1st rounders we MUST hit on guys who can contribute right away or are going to be stars for the future.  Wiggins/Sanders could give us that foundation to be legit contenders.  Wiggins/Cauley-Stein... might see us visiting the lottery for another 3 years.

I'd rather try to move up with our second and snag Cauley-Stein. He seems similar to Sanders, will be way less money and hopefully none of the knuckleheadness that Sanders comes with.

Plus you can mold him into the Celtics style of play. Sanders may fight that more than a rook. Im not sure how well Cauley-Stein's game will translate to the NBA, but if he puts the work in I could see a Sanders/DeAndrea Jordan type center. Hopefully with better FT shooting.

[KGs Knee]

I've really soured on Sanders.  I'm not sure he'll reach whatever potential he was perceived to have.  Seems to be a bit a of knucklehead too.  I certainly don't want to spend that much money on that big of a risk.

Asik, while a nice player doesn't really seem to be a 'right place, right time' move.  I'm not sure giving up assets for him, when there is no guarantee we keep him past next season is a good allocation of assets, from a value perspective.  I'd rather hold onto those assets until it is clear what the team would look like going forward.

[Lucky17]

I guess I missed/ignored the premise of the OP.

If the question is, "Should the Celtics trade a mid-late 2014 1st rounder for Larry Sanders, or for Omer Asik," then the answer is clearly Sanders, the one with the higher upside (but also the biggest risk). And I doubt Sanders goes for that cheap. If Sanders is indeed any good, why would the Bucks dump him?

To clarify my earlier response: I'd prefer to keep the 1st, and instead acquire Asik with some lesser assets, like the Pierce exception and a future pick.

But I wouldn't give up X for Asik when the same offer could get Sanders.

[Mr October]

Well the thing with Asik is this, are you really going to give up a mid 1st in a good draft for what might be just a 1 year rental of a defense first center or would you rather get somebody who will be there as a building block for a few years in Sanders?  I'd rather go the latter route.

I'm not worried about saving 2015 money, because until we get rid of Wallace, we're not really in a position to sign any big name free agents anyways.

As for why the Bucks would give up Sanders just take a peek at their team salaries:
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/milwaukee.htm

Sanders would be their highest paid player over the next 4 years and they have Ilyasova who could arguably play the stretch 5 locked up at 7.9m per year.  If we offered them our mid 1st and say Brandon Bass, their team could look a lot more balanced and they'd save salary cap space as well.

As for the Celtics, it's pretty obvious why we couldn't close out close games this year in the 4th, no rim protector for crunch time.  Sanders is an established elite defender with more athleticism than Asik imo and he's young.  Why not trade for him instead of gambling that pick #17 or 18 will turn into a serviceable NBA player?

Again i dont think the Bucks are looking to move Sanders for an 18 pick and expiring filler. That's my main point.

If that's all it takes, i might roll those dice.

His attitude and light frame are a risk at 44 million. But when you have a chance to significantly upgrade talent in a trade, i think you have to take that risk. He could become Tyson Chandler 2.0.

Ainge would really have to do his homework on Sanders. getting a player like that could really blow up your team's immediate future or accelerate it.

One worry i have is, did Sanders suddenly get it so he could get paid, only to regress once the money is guaranteed? Where were his juicy shot blocking numbers this year? Rebounds too?

I wonder what it would really take to get Sanders in a trade. And i am glad it isn't me making that decision. 

[D.o.s.]

One worry i have is, did Sanders suddenly get it so he could get paid, only to regress once the money is guaranteed? Where were his juicy shot blocking numbers this year? Rebounds too?

Sanders was injured Feb. 8 when Houston's James Harden elbowed him in the right eye as the two went for a rebound. He had surgery shortly afterward.

Sanders also missed nearly two months earlier this season after tearing a ligament in his right thumb during a fight at a Milwaukee night club. He averaged 7.7 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in 23 games this season after signing a four-year extension worth about $44 million.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10642779/larry-sanders-milwaukee-bucks-season-face-injury


Dude only played about 500 minutes of basketball this season.

[Lucky17]

One worry i have is, did Sanders suddenly get it so he could get paid, only to regress once the money is guaranteed? Where were his juicy shot blocking numbers this year? Rebounds too?

IIRC, he had a "Big Baby" moment early in the season (nightclub brawl). Injured his hand, which pretty much derailed his whole season.

Plus the direction of the franchise from a hopeful offseason into fulll-bore tank job didn't help.

[Mr October]

One worry i have is, did Sanders suddenly get it so he could get paid, only to regress once the money is guaranteed? Where were his juicy shot blocking numbers this year? Rebounds too?

Sanders was injured Feb. 8 when Houston's James Harden elbowed him in the right eye as the two went for a rebound. He had surgery shortly afterward.

Sanders also missed nearly two months earlier this season after tearing a ligament in his right thumb during a fight at a Milwaukee night club. He averaged 7.7 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in 23 games this season after signing a four-year extension worth about $44 million.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10642779/larry-sanders-milwaukee-bucks-season-face-injury


Dude only played about 500 minutes of basketball this season.

Yeah the sample size is too small. The point remains that he is being paid a big contract based on 1 really good year. It is a risk to pick him up.

If Ainge really likes him, and only has to give up the 18th pick and Bass to get him, i am in. 18th pick plus Sully, and i am honestly just not sure.

It also depends on what happens with the top pick. Let's say the Celtics pick Randle in the draft at number 5 or 6. Sullinger becomes much more moveable. Maybe Sanders is the answer. A Rondo, Bradley, Green, Randle, Sanders lineup could be fun. They wouldn't shoot very well, but they could be fun.

Or if the Celtics get Embiid in the top 3, i have zero interest in Sanders. If the Bucks land Embiid, how about trying to swap Green for Sanders? Then the Celtics would still have significant cap space next summer.

[vjcsmoke]

A starting 5 of:
1 Rondo
2 Wiggins
3 Green
4 Sullinger
5 Sanders

That's an immediate playoff contender in the East.
I feel a lot better about that team than a lot of other proposals I've seen on this forum.

Such as, gee let's trade Rondo for Exum and eat Steve Nash's contract.
That idea is a Non-starter for a lot of reasons.

Is Vonleh or Aaron Gordon going to be the answers for the C's?  Vonleh -might- turn out as good as Sanders in 3 years.  Might, but might not.  Aaron Gordon is a PF who can't shoot.  Will he even beat out Sullinger?  And Cauley-Stein?  he might be the next Asik or he might be Fab Melo... Risky!

[indeedproceed]

As opposed to an overpaid Asik, who's going to ask for, and get, a deal similar to Sanders's after his last year on the current contract?

I cross that bridge later.

You sound like Cleveland's front office circa May, 2010

Not that there's anything wrong with wanting Asik over Sanders, but if you're talking about how much each is getting paid you have to factor in the fact that Asik is getting another big contract much sooner than Sanders is.

I'm just going off what most in the Boston media have been saying: Ainge wants to keep the books clear for the summer of 2015.

Asik is an ideal trade target for Ainge for his position, his skill set, and his contract length. A bridge player to the next evolution of the roster.

Or even to resign him. The beautiful thing about his cap hold is that if we really can do better, fine, we can renounce him and then at least gain a TPE via sign and trade.

While it's ridiculous to believe the Asik from the last few games is the full-time starter, at least it shows you what you're getting with him starting ; 10-10 with world-class defense. That's worth $10 mil per, especially if you can spread the floor around him.

My best case scenario: Draft Parker or Wiggins, trade the non-guaranteed contracts and one of those 'the worst remaining of' deals involving a future pick for Asik.

[PhoSita]

Unfortunately until we know where the Celtics are drafting, and where everybody else is drafting, making plans for this summer and beyond is pointless.  So much depends on where everybody's pick falls.