If Avery Bradley asked for 5 mil for 4 years, would you do it?

[crimson_stallion]

Not sure folks here really understand what the market comps are for a player like Bradley.

I would not be surprised if he gets an offer north of 7M per.  As Crimson points out, that's kind of the going rate for that kind of player.

Can you provide some examples?

If you are looking at shooting guards who got contracts last off-season:
Kevin Martin - 4 years (including player option), starting at $6.5m
Monta Ellis - 3 years (including player option), starting at $8m
Gerald Henderson - 3 years (including player option), starting at $6m

K-Mart and Ellis are far superior to Bradley, so those don't seem like good comps to me.

Henderson is the best comp I've seen.  He's also fairly injury prone, and has a suspect outside shot.  Henderson is significantly bigger than Bradley, however.

I could see another team giving Bradley 5 or 6 million a year.  I don't think it makes sense for the Celtics to sign him for more than 4 a year, however.  Like I said, he's replaceable.  Also, I really want the Celtics to avoid signing multi-year "luxury" contracts to roleplayers, so we don't end up stuck with guys we can't move -- e.g. Bass.

I just want you to answer two things for me

1) How is Bradley replacable (within reasonable cost)?
2) How are those two guys far superior to Bradley?

I would love for you to give me an example of a SG you could sign for less money than Bradley who has the same great intangibles (attitude, work ethic, motor) as well as the same combination of offensive and defensive production.

If you cannot name me such a player, then Bradley is not easilly replacable.

Neither Martin nor Ellis quality.  Neither has been known for great intanbibles, and neither plays a lick of defense.

[crimson_stallion]

Henderson is the best comp I've seen.  He's also fairly injury prone, and has a suspect outside shot.  Henderson is significantly bigger than Bradley, however.

Are you so fixated on size that you would like Bradley better if you could add three inches of height at the cost of decreased production on the floor?

Yes, because size matters in the NBA.  If Bradley were 6'5'' he would have an easier time covering bigger 2s and switching onto 3s.  He doesn't have nearly the versatility that Tony Allen does defensively because of his lack of size.  Bradley's lack of size also makes him more likely to break down so long as he's playing on the wing against generally larger players.

Ideally, Bradley could spent time at the point coming off the bench, but we know that's just not his skillset.



I look around the league and I see a lot of decent guys you could plug in at the SG position for less than 6 per year, and probably for fewer than 3 years.  Why over-extend just to keep Bradley?

Here's what I mean --

Belinelli - 2.75
Gerald Green - 2.5
Meeks - 1.5
Carter - 1.5
Lee - 5
Morrow - 1

Korver makes 6.7, but he's perhaps the best outside shooter in the game, and he can play both wing positions.

Absolute garbage. 

Tony Allen is 6'4".  Avery Bradley is 6'3" (he's incorrectly lsited at 6'2" on his NBA profile, but is 6'3" according to Draft Express measurements).  Avery is also much stronger than he looks and doesn't get bullied easilly.

Any of the guys who would be too big for Bradley to defend (Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Paul George) would also be too big for TA to defend.  The comparison is moot.

Everybody starts by comparing AB to either a guy like TA (who has zero offensive game) or a guy like Monta Ellis (who has zero defensive game). 

Bradley plays BOTH ends of the court, which is what people here ignore.

Also how can you criticise Bradley for his size, but then say Monta Ellis is far superior?  Ellis is the same height as Bradley (at best) and is far skinner, and has put up relatively comparable offensive numbers over his past three seasons to what AB has this season. 

Henderson probably is (as you have said) the closest comparison so far, but Bradley is shooting FAR better from three this season that Henderson has over his last three and is a far, far, far superior defender.   

 

[crimson_stallion]

Henderson is the best comp I've seen.  He's also fairly injury prone, and has a suspect outside shot.  Henderson is significantly bigger than Bradley, however.

Are you so fixated on size that you would like Bradley better if you could add three inches of height at the cost of decreased production on the floor?

Yes, because size matters in the NBA.  If Bradley were 6'5'' he would have an easier time covering bigger 2s and switching onto 3s.  He doesn't have nearly the versatility that Tony Allen does defensively because of his lack of size.  Bradley's lack of size also makes him more likely to break down so long as he's playing on the wing against generally larger players.

Ideally, Bradley could spent time at the point coming off the bench, but we know that's just not his skillset.



I look around the league and I see a lot of decent guys you could plug in at the SG position for less than 6 per year, and probably for fewer than 3 years.  Why over-extend just to keep Bradley?

Here's what I mean --

Belinelli - 2.75
Gerald Green - 2.5
Meeks - 1.5
Carter - 1.5
Lee - 5
Morrow - 1

Korver makes 6.7, but he's perhaps the best outside shooter in the game, and he can play both wing positions.

Belinelli - Terrible defender
Gerald Green - 2.5
Meeks - 1.5
Carter - Old and poor defender
Lee - Worse than Bradley on both defense and offense
Morrow - Terrible defender
Korver - One of the worst defenders in the entire league

The only guys there that I cannot comment on are Green and Meeks because I don't know if they are below average defensive players...but I know they definatley haven't made any all defensive teams.

[D.o.s.]

So I think Crimson Stallion likes Avery a little bit.

I'm going to simply reiterate my position that he's a little too fragile to be relied on for starter minutes, and he's most effective coming off the bench in short doses. And, because he's not big, he's basically got to defend point guards and smaller shooting guards without having the handles to run the point. The Tony Allen comparisons are a disservice to TA's defense and to Bradley's offense.

Personally, I like to see the first guard off the bench be more of a nate-rob spark plug type player.

I also have suspicions about the long-term viability of a Bradley Rondo backcourt. I think their defensive rating together was a byproduct of playing with KG and under Doc's system, and wouldn't survive in the Stevens era with Sully and KO as their "rim-protecting" bigs.

The problem with that is that since neither of them are healthy at the same time, ever, we're still waiting to see if that was a fluke or not. Years later. In principle, I don't give Avery $5/4 years unless I'm convinced he'll play in 85% of the games over those 4 years, and he's already turned down $6/3 years with a team option on the third.

[crimson_stallion]

This is absolutely ridiculous.  Lack of size can be overcome, lack of production can not.  I would never sacrifice some of the skill or talent of a Leon Powe just for an extra 3 inches.  He simply didn't need to be the same size as everyone else, it didn't stop him from stealing all those rebounds.

I don't see what's ridiculous about saying that Bradley would be capable of doing a lot more if he were a few inches taller.

If Brandon Bass or Glen Davis were 4 inches taller, they'd be All-Stars.

Bradley would be a better bet to stay healthy and / or improve his game if he were bigger, simply because it would allow him to do more without taking as much of a beating.

I beg to differ

If Brandon Bass were 4 inches taller he would probably lose a lot of that mobility the he often uses to his advantage. 

Look at guys like Rodman and Barkley, who dominated the boards at 6'6" and 6'7".  Making Bass 7" doesn't mean he'll suddenly become a beast rebounder, just look at Broo Lopez...

Making Bass 4" taller doesn't magically mean he'll become a beast scorer in the low post either...just look at Jason Collins.

Bass is undersized as his position but that doesn't often impact him a lot because of his style of play.  He's best talent is his offense, and all of that comes off open midrange jumpers or quick drives to the basket.  In the former size matters little, and in the latter he often takes advantage of the extra agility he has as a result of his lack of size.

Courtney Lee was a guy who had very similar on-paper production to AB up until this season, but he's 6'5" instead of 6'3".  I'd take Bradley over Lee any day...he's a better scorer, he's a better rebounder, he's a better defender, he has a higher motor, he seems to get more respect from his teamates and he has tons of NBA playoff / finals experience.

Maybe if Bradley was 3 inches taller he'd lose some of his explosive quickness, and maybe then he wouldn't be able to dodge screens as he does, move laterally as he does, stay in front of defenders the way he does.  It's all relative...it's impossible to say that any player would be X amount better or X amount worse if they had different physical attributes.

[crimson_stallion]

So I think Crimson Stallion likes Avery a little bit.

No I don't, I'm just realistic and I'm getting tired of all the people here on CB who constantly apply the 'grass is greener on the other side' philosophy.

Sure the green-glasses homers are annoying, but so are the opposite types who constantly undervalue our own players because they think other teams' players are so much better.

The mass of guys who rave above the three-point chucking (and bricking) personal foul committing, out of condition running, injury-history riddled Sullinger...only to come right back and bag the hell out of guys like Bradley.

Everybody hear loved Bradley, but just wished he could be better on offense.  This year he has Dramatically improved on that end of the floor (by about 6-7 points per 36 minutes...an unheard of improvement) and yet still people have to find something to complain about.

The same guys who want to trade Rondo for Omer bloomin' Asik and trade Jeff Green for a handful of tea leaves. 

Avery Bradley isn't the type of player you build a franchise around, that's obvious.  If he was a franchise player we'd be paying him $13M, not $6M or $7M.  AB is a perfect support player to start for a team.  He's the Shane Battier / Dennis Rodman / Derek Fisher type - the perfect glue guy who you can add to a starting lineup to turn a core of 2-3 stars into a championship contender.

Add a star SF and a star C to this team over the next 2-3 years and guys like Bradley and Sullinger could be exactly the type of 'role player' starters to help take you to the finals.  Guys who don't need the ball all the time, guys who can win you games with their heart and hustle.  Perfect support player.

These are the types of players that all teams need, and they don't come for free.  No team can afford to sign 5 superstars...if you can get two you are lucky.  The rest comes from grear support players who overpeform.

We made the finals a couple of years back because of guys like Pietrus, Dooling and Marquis - guys who lacked talent but exceeded expectations simply because they played so [dang] hard.  Bradley is like that same type of player, only with about 10x the talent.  Let him walk today, and tomorrow some other team will be thanking you every single day. 

Think about how much opposing PG's and SG's HATE playing Bradley.  How much he gets in their faces.  How much his mere presence on defense unsettles them on each and every possession.  Now imagine that guy is on another team, and it's 'us' who has to face him. 

I'll pass on that scenario thanks.

[crimson_stallion]

I also have suspicions about the long-term viability of a Bradley Rondo backcourt. I think their defensive rating together was a byproduct of playing with KG and under Doc's system, and wouldn't survive in the Stevens era with Sully and KO as their "rim-protecting" bigs.

What makes you think Sully and KO will be the "rim protecting bigs" in the long term?  If that's the case this team will never, ever compete...no matter who your defensive SG is.

One of those guys will end up either coming off the bench or being traded.  I think there is about a 5% chance that we will see both of those guys starting for us 3 years from now.

[D.o.s.]

You're clearly more optimistic about Bradley's outlook than I am. I don't put him on the Rodman/Battier level. I think Fischer's a solid comparison, but I also think that Fish loses a lot when he's not playing in the triangle.

I do generally agree with you that we shouldn't let him just walk, though I don't think he's going to get a huge offer in the off-season, so we'd be bidding against ourselves if we just arbitrarily assign a contract value.

I also have suspicions about the long-term viability of a Bradley Rondo backcourt. I think their defensive rating together was a byproduct of playing with KG and under Doc's system, and wouldn't survive in the Stevens era with Sully and KO as their "rim-protecting" bigs.

What makes you think Sully and KO will be the "rim protecting bigs" in the long term?  If that's the case this team will never, ever compete...no matter who your defensive SG is.

One of those guys will end up either coming off the bench or being traded.  I think there is about a 5% chance that we will see both of those guys starting for us 3 years from now.

I agree, but that's divergent from my point- - I think that a lot of people cling to the hope of a Bradley/Rondo backcourt because of how good their defensive numbers were in the five minutes they played together back in 2012.

[kozlodoev]

Think about how much opposing PG's and SG's HATE playing Bradley.  How much he gets in their faces.  How much his mere presence on defense unsettles them on each and every possession.  Now imagine that guy is on another team, and it's 'us' who has to face him.

Now that they know he may be coming, not nearly as much as they used to. Call it the Brandon Hunter phenomenon, if you wish.

You're clearly more optimistic about Bradley's outlook than I am. I don't put him on the Rodman/Battier level.

Rodman and Battier are 6'8+ and  have considerably better positional versatility than Bradley. Not to mention that they're simply the better players -- Rodman because of his rebounding, Battier because of the three-point shooting.

[D.o.s.]

Courtney Lee was a guy who had very similar on-paper production to AB up until this season, but he's 6'5" instead of 6'3".  I'd take Bradley over Lee any day...he's a better scorer, he's a better rebounder, he's a better defender, he has a higher motor, he seems to get more respect from his teamates and he has tons of NBA playoff / finals experience.

Also, for the record, this is mostly wrong.

[PhoSita]

Courtney Lee was a guy who had very similar on-paper production to AB up until this season, but he's 6'5" instead of 6'3".  I'd take Bradley over Lee any day...he's a better scorer, he's a better rebounder, he's a better defender, he has a higher motor, he seems to get more respect from his teamates and he has tons of NBA playoff / finals experience.

Also, for the record, this is mostly wrong.

Yeah, I'm with d.o.s. here.  Clearly your view of Bradley's game and production is radically different than mine, crimson.

Also, I don't think you have a handle on the value of really high level shooters like Belinelli and Korver.

[Who]

Avery Bradley's offensive game is quite limited. He is nowhere near as versatile/skilled a scorer as the guys being mentioned above.

A.Bradley still cannot make 3 pointers from the top of the key (2 attempts all season) or the wings (8/30). Just the corners. He has a really good long two point shot that he can get regularly (low efficiency shot). Has no in between game from there and the rim. His finishing at the basket is mediocre. Relies on transition + cuts for many of his at the basket attempts. His ball handling is basic. His passing is basic. Minimal dribble penetration. No real secondary playmaking (1.4apg). He hardly ever gets to the FT line (1.8 FTAs vs 13.6 FGAs).

Avery Bradley's offensive skill-set is still limited and one of the weaker ones amongst starting SGs in the NBA.

[SHAQATTACK]

He simply is hurt too much for a long contract at any price ., no matter how you feel about his output , skills or ceiling .    I'm down on all but his defense prow

I d retain him at a max of two years .....if I were inclined , which I'm not , but DA probably feels an attachment

But.....personally I'd trade him or let him go

Long contracts are a death sentence for injury prone players .

[Celtics4ever]

Injuries aside, earlier in the year he was a 5 Million a year player, I think.   I am not crazy about him, as  I like a shooting guard that can shoot, but he can defend with the best of them.

[Mr October]

Injuries aside, earlier in the year he was a 5 Million a year player, I think.   I am not crazy about him, as  I like a shooting guard that can shoot, but he can defend with the best of them.

I think his defense is overrated. He is great on ball on point guards. And when he is playing limited minutes he can put ball pressure on like no one else.

He looked good next to Crawford, since Crawford ran the point and defended the bigger guards. But next to Rondo i just dont see it. Can someone supply some proof that Bradley is an effective defender against the tall shooting guards? Doc used to assign Rondo to the taller guards, when RR and AB played together.

How does he fair against DeRozan, Thompson, Beal, Afflalo, Harden, Stephenson, Martin, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, etc? To be honest i rarely have seen him assigned to defend a legit tall shooting guard.

Meanwhile on offense, he is generating 14.1 points on 13.6 shots per game. And for his career 8.7 points on 8.3 shots per game. That's not good. He doesn't pass/create well. He cant dribble penetrate in the half court and finish around the basket well. He can only shoot 3s from the corners.

On top of that he has been injury prone.

I like Bradley. I like his defense on smaller guards. I like that he has shown improvements in his game. I like his attitude. I just dont want the celtics to clog the cap and over pay role players. I would have a hard time dealing with seeing him get 20 million over 4 years.