Adam Silver favors raising the age limit

[D.o.s.]

As foul pointed out they miss on 4 year players all of the time.  Below is the list of #1 picks from 1987 to 2008.  There are 3 all time greats (Lebron, Shaq, Duncan), Lebron was a high schooler, Duncan graduated, and Shaq was 3 years (though he started college at 17 and was thus 19 when drafted).  There were/are 5 other MVP or surefire HOFers (Robinson, Webber, Iverson, Howard, Rose).  Webber and Iverson were sophomores, Howard was a high schooler, Robinson graduated (and then went military), and Rose was a one and done.  Two were foreign players, Ming was fairly successful, Bargnani not so much.  Of the remaining players there are a number of 3 and 4 year college players that were what you would call busts like the Kandi man, Manning, etc. and plenty of others with only moderate careers like Joe Smith and Kenyon Martin.  Kwame Brown was clearly a bust as a high school player as well, but he was the only one.  The reality is, no amount of college is going to stop NBA gm's from making poor selections in the draft and the reality is, the NBA gm's generally got it right with the high school kids.  The ones that weren't ready dropped (like Gerald Green) and the ones that were were generally taken at or below where they should have been.  Sure there are exceptions, but by and large they did a much better job with the high school players than they did with the guys that went to college.

2008     Derrick Rose    Chicago    Memphis
2007    Greg Oden    Portland    Ohio State
2006    Andrea Bargnani Toronto    Italy
2005     Andrew Bogut    Milwaukee    Utah
2004    Dwight Howard    Orlando    SW Atlanta Christian Academy (GA)
2003    LeBron James    Cleveland    St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (OH)
2002    Yao Ming    Houston    China
2001    Kwame Brown    Washington    Glynn Academy
2000    Kenyon Martin    New Jersey Nets Cincinnati
1999    Elton Brand    Chicago Bulls    Duke
1998    Michael Olowokandi LA Clippers    Pacific (Cal.)
1997    Tim Duncan    San Antonio    Wake Forest
1996    Allen Iverson    Philadelphia    Georgetown
1995    Joe Smith    Golden State    Maryland
1994    Glenn Robinson    Milwaukee    Purdue
1993    Chris Webber    Orlando    Michigan
1992    Shaquille O'Neal Orlando    Louisiana State
1991    Larry Johnson    Charlotte    Nevada-Las Vegas
1990    Derrick Coleman New Jersey    Syracuse
1989    Pervis Ellison    Sacramento    Louisville
1988    Danny Manning    L.A. Clippers    Kansas
1987    David Robinson    San Antonio    Navy

Right. I agree with that. I'm also sure that you'll agree that the NBA wants to make it as easy as possible for their GM's to "hit" on their draft picks, and a higher age requirement is one way to help them do that.

[kozlodoev]

I believe in freedom of choice.   

If a kid is an Adult and subject to adult taxes, punishment , etc.....why would NBA want to remove a persons chance for a better life.

Because the NBA's job is to care about the NBA.

As for the chance for a better life, it's probably exponentially higher for college graduates than for most aspiring NBA stars.

[fairweatherfan]

As foul pointed out they miss on 4 year players all of the time.  Below is the list of #1 picks from 1987 to 2008.  There are 3 all time greats (Lebron, Shaq, Duncan), Lebron was a high schooler, Duncan graduated, and Shaq was 3 years (though he started college at 17 and was thus 19 when drafted).  There were/are 5 other MVP or surefire HOFers (Robinson, Webber, Iverson, Howard, Rose).  Webber and Iverson were sophomores, Howard was a high schooler, Robinson graduated (and then went military), and Rose was a one and done.  Two were foreign players, Ming was fairly successful, Bargnani not so much.  Of the remaining players there are a number of 3 and 4 year college players that were what you would call busts like the Kandi man, Manning, etc. and plenty of others with only moderate careers like Joe Smith and Kenyon Martin.  Kwame Brown was clearly a bust as a high school player as well, but he was the only one.  The reality is, no amount of college is going to stop NBA gm's from making poor selections in the draft and the reality is, the NBA gm's generally got it right with the high school kids.  The ones that weren't ready dropped (like Gerald Green) and the ones that were were generally taken at or below where they should have been.  Sure there are exceptions, but by and large they did a much better job with the high school players than they did with the guys that went to college.

2008     Derrick Rose    Chicago    Memphis
2007    Greg Oden    Portland    Ohio State
2006    Andrea Bargnani Toronto    Italy
2005     Andrew Bogut    Milwaukee    Utah
2004    Dwight Howard    Orlando    SW Atlanta Christian Academy (GA)
2003    LeBron James    Cleveland    St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (OH)
2002    Yao Ming    Houston    China
2001    Kwame Brown    Washington    Glynn Academy
2000    Kenyon Martin    New Jersey Nets Cincinnati
1999    Elton Brand    Chicago Bulls    Duke
1998    Michael Olowokandi LA Clippers    Pacific (Cal.)
1997    Tim Duncan    San Antonio    Wake Forest
1996    Allen Iverson    Philadelphia    Georgetown
1995    Joe Smith    Golden State    Maryland
1994    Glenn Robinson    Milwaukee    Purdue
1993    Chris Webber    Orlando    Michigan
1992    Shaquille O'Neal Orlando    Louisiana State
1991    Larry Johnson    Charlotte    Nevada-Las Vegas
1990    Derrick Coleman New Jersey    Syracuse
1989    Pervis Ellison    Sacramento    Louisville
1988    Danny Manning    L.A. Clippers    Kansas
1987    David Robinson    San Antonio    Navy

Right. I agree with that. I'm also sure that you'll agree that the NBA wants to make it as easy as possible for their GM's to "hit" on their draft picks, and a higher age requirement is one way to help them do that.

I disagree with the second half of this - again, we have a nice natural experiment with eligibility guidelines over the years, and there's nothing to indicate that HS or one-and-done guys were more likely to bust than guys with more college experience.

[D.o.s.]

Except that you're making it easier for the managers to pick by virtue of limiting the potential pool of draftees.

In theory, anyway.

[JBcat]

I didn't read every post but I will say for the Celtics sake if this rule is implemented I hope it's not until after 2018.  The reason I say that is because for a year or 2 it will make the draft really weak, as all the kids that would have been one and done are forced to stay, and the draft will be made up of older kids that weren't talented enough to go out earlier. 

With all our potential high picks coming our way I would hate to miss out on someone if this rule just went into place. 

[Eja117]

Here is my question, how does letting in players out of high school help the NBA and their teams?



It is not like the best players will not be drafter two or more years later.

They may not be drafted if they get injured in college, thus missing out on a huge payday.

This could be addressed with insurance. Also it's a little like saying accounting firms should have to hire kids out of high school because what if something happens to them in college.  They aren't owed a huge payday in and of itself

No, it's like saying accounting firms should be able to hire kids out of high school if they want to.

Ok. So say they do that and there are a ton of fudge ups on people's taxes. The firms can't agree to not hire kids that haven't been to college? They can't create an industry standard?

I think the analogy breaks down when a bunch of former fresh out of high school accountants are on their way to the Accounting Hall of Fame.

Right, but the accounting industry could still look at what had happened and decide to create standards.

Are you folks saying it would be ok to create a basketball exam to assist with licensure? 

If the standard wasn't an age, but was that they must have played either a year overseas, or a year in the NBDL, or a year in college, or junior college, would that suffice?

sure, as long as the NBDL had no age limit.

I would assume it would follow child labor laws.  I think Europe has some experience with this because they don't have college sports in the same way

Freddy Adu signed with the MLS when he was 14 (he also played in a game while still 14 making him the youngest person to ever play a professional team sport in the US). The MLS has in fact had a number of players sign well before they turned 18 (though Adu was and still is the youngest player to do so).  So you don't even need to go to Europe.

The whole Freddy Adu thing didn't really work out that well either for Freddy or the soccer world

He had a 10+ year career and played in many of the top leagues in the world.

Bobby Convey signed at 16 to the MLS 14 years ago and is still playing in the MLS.  Santino Quaranta started like a bat out of hell when he was 16 in the MLS, but was unfortunately beset with injuries, though did end up with a 10 year career in the MLS. 

Jozy Altidore, one of if not the best current American, started in the MLS at 16.  Eddie Johnson (also a top tier American) started in the MLS just after his 17th birthday.  Michael Bradley and Demarcus Beasley, were both under 18 when they started in the MLS. 

There are countless other players with long time careers and multiple national team appearances who began their MLS careers before their 18th birthdays.

What happens when they injure themselves 3 years into their career and can't play anymore and don't a high school diploma? Do they go back to high school 3 years behind their peers and then not qualify for an NCAA scholarship because they made money?

they have tutors while playing, they get their GED, they do the same things child actors do or people who drop out for non-work reasons (which are a lot).  Or they do something else.  What happens when the construction worker slips a disc and can't work?  What happens when the computer technician breaks his hand?  What happens when a teacher is in a car accident and becomes mentally deficient?  Or countless other things.  At least in the case of the professional athlete they theoretically have a nice little nest egg available, including the very nice pensions that professional leagues have.

The pensions have to be vested and don't kick in till they are in their 40s. There is a difference between going on disability and losing the ability to do the only thing you know with no other meaningful education, skills, or experience.

[wdleehi]

I guess I picked an age much to high when I said draft them out of middle school.


Soccer, signing players at the age of 20 months.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1981917-birth-of-the-baby-footballer-at-what-age-can-you-spot-true-sporting-talent?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial&hpt=hp_t3