NBA Draft Hypothetical: Julius Randle is the Best Player Available

[beantownboy171]

I thought it would be fun to run a series of hypothetical situations pertaining to the draft this spring. For the purposes of this thread please try to keep the discussion related to the hypothetical that I have proposed.

In the following scenario the Boston Celtics have the #7 overall pick:

#1: Joel Embiid
#2: Andrew Wiggins
#3: Jabari Parker
#4: Dante Exum
#5: Noah Vonleh
#6: Marcus Smart
#7:   

I get the impression that many of you would be disappointed if things went like this. But I think that we should definitely be prepared for this realistic scenario, because:

- The Celtics could easily finish with a better record than the Jazz, Lakers and Kings. All four teams are going to lose a lot down the stretch.

- We could get burned by the lottery. If we have the #5 or #6 lottery position. There is always a chance teams with a better record can leap frog us.

- It isn't a guarantee that all of the top prospects will declare for the draft. Both Embiid and Parker have been mentioned as players who might return to school for another season. In summation, Randle might be our best option even at #4-6.

- For the purposes of the hypothetical I took Noah Vonleh out of the equation. I know a lot of you are more intrigued by Vonleh than you are with Randle, because Vonleh has more upside and could convert into a center. But, you should open youself up to the possibility that Ainge values Randle over the likes of Smart and Vonleh.

Now it's time to state the obvious: We have Jared Sullinger, and he is pretty good. But both Sullinger and Randle are pure power forwards. They are redundant and they are both going to warrant a spot in a starting lineup, no matter what team they are on.

What's Not So Obvious: This wouldn't be so bad.

Here's why:

- Jared Sullinger is our best trade asset. In any trade we try to make this off-season, Sullinger will be the #1 person that teams will be asking for. If we want to make a big splash this summer, making Sullinger available will get the attention of teams around the league.

- So drafting Randle, would give us that flexibility.

- Randle is a better athlete than Sully, and could eventually be a better player. I think many people have written off Randle in their minds, due to Sullinger's pressence on the roster. Here is Julius Randle's scouting video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7oLRl6NVDU

- The biggest knock on Randle is his average wingspan. He is NBA ready however, and power forwards like Randle are typically very safe picks.


So from here, speculate:

- Who would you prefer too keep in this scenario, Randle or Sullinger?

- What do you think of Julius Randle, as a pro-prospect?

- Which player do you believe will have more trade value?

- Who should the Celtics target in a trade, involving one of these two players? What would that trade look like?

- Try to project our opening day lineup!


Thanks for playing!

[BleedGreen1989]

I imagine if Ainge can't trade the pick, he'll just draft Julius and figure it out later.

[Nerf DPOY]

- Who would you prefer too keep in this scenario, Randle or Sullinger?

- Which player do you believe will have more trade value?

- Who should the Celtics target in a trade, involving one of these two players? What would that trade look like?

- Try to project our opening day lineup!


Thanks for playing!

Randle to questions 1 and 2. He's younger, on his rookie deal for 2 more years, more athletic, and no injury red flags. There's more room for improvement, and his flaws are overblown.

I'd trade him in a heartbeat for Kevin Love, but am not resistant to trying to pair him with Sullinger, length up front be [dang]ed.

To go outside your hypothetical for a moment, I just seriously doubt Smart goes before Randle. I see Smart as a big combo guard with a mediocre jumper, and would probably take at least ten guys before him.

[cometboy]

I haven't paid much attention to Randle. I figured he's the most NBA ready, but may not have as much upside as others. Except possibly for lingering concerns over the long term health of Sully's back, I think he may be viewed as more valuable than Randle. That said, I think it's an interesting question. If we drafted Randle, assuming he will be as good or better than Sully (a big if IMO), then I suppose I woud be ok with trading Sully for a center. I just don't know who that would be. He won't bring in one of the top, young centers (e.g., Drummond). I would maybe take Monroe for him (not sure about that), but I can't see Detroit doing that since it doesn't solve their logjam at PF.

CB

[celticmania]

Take Randle, trade Sullinger

[PickNRoll]

Sully is proven.  If you draft Randle, you hope he ends up as good as Sullinger.  You keep Sullinger.

Trade down in the draft if you can acquire another late pick and take TJ Warren, PJ Hairston, or a flier on a couple guys like Cauley-Stein and Jerami Grant.  This draft isn't as top-heavy as people think.  It's going to produce multiple all-stars in the 10-30 range.  Give Danny a few shots and he'll find one.

[Who]

Looks like another Thomas Robinson = top college PF, backup PF in NBA.

The lack of a jump-shot is a killer blow for a guy with so-so size, mediocre wingspan and lack of explosive athleticism. That will severely limited his offensive utility in the NBA.

I don't think he'll contribute much his first few years in the league and I expect his long term future will be decided by whether or not he can add that jump-shot to his repertoire.

So to answer the question, if Randle is the best available, I say trade the pick. Not interested. Too much risk in that pick. Certainly nowhere near able to threaten a skilled and proven NBA big like Sully.

[jambr380]

Your scenario is very plausible. I will actually be surprised if we don't end up with a pick in the 7-9 range. We are bad, but just not that bad and Rondo will give us a few extra wins on his own.

With all of that said, I think two guys that are going to slide are Randle and Smart and we may even have our choice between the two - even at the 9 slot. As two players who were certain top 6 choices just a month or two ago, I think you have to be satisfied. All the negatives that are coming out about Randle may be justified, but it could also be a lot of overthinking. Both players should produce at the next level and it really just depends on what Danny is looking for or what the market is for Sullinger.

[celticmania]

Randle is  so skilled

[AidaCelt]

I like Sully as our current and future PF. He's played out of position a lot on the current roster and is therefore undersized at the C position. If we had #7 and Randle was the best available, I'd try to package the pick with other assets to either get Embiid, Parker, Wiggins or Exum (unlikely) or a veteran C.

[LarBrd33]

Looks like another Thomas Robinson = top college PF, backup PF in NBA.

The lack of a jump-shot is a killer blow for a guy with so-so size, mediocre wingspan and lack of explosive athleticism. That will severely limited his offensive utility in the NBA.

I don't think he'll contribute much his first few years in the league and I expect his long term future will be decided by whether or not he can add that jump-shot to his repertoire.

So to answer the question, if Randle is the best available, I say trade the pick. Not interested. Too much risk in that pick. Certainly nowhere near able to threaten a skilled and proven NBA big like Sully.

Really?  It was like 2 months ago that some people had Randle ahead of Wiggins and Parker.  What happened?  Can you really determine that much from one (arguably solid) season of College basketball??

[Sully7]

I'll take the best player available…..Randle, Gordon, Smart, Ennis

they all have risk and reward…but I don't see one proven starter on our team outside Rondo.

[Mr October]

Looks like another Thomas Robinson = top college PF, backup PF in NBA.

The lack of a jump-shot is a killer blow for a guy with so-so size, mediocre wingspan and lack of explosive athleticism. That will severely limited his offensive utility in the NBA.

I thought he exited high school with a reputation for having a decent outside shot, as part of his arsenal of weapons. Perhaps he is so dominant around the basket, that coach cal doesnt want him shooting from the outside.

[slamtheking]

if Randle is BPA when our pick comes up (or anyone other than the consensus top 4) I have a gut feeling Danny trades the pick for a good young player and a lower pick (still lotto -- around 10-12).  pick up a couple of assets instead of 1.

[SHAQATTACK]

Randle maybe the only choice......without a better tank........he maybe the player we end up with