Chart a Course to Keeping Rondo

[PhoSita]

Premise:
Rondo will not sign an extension this summer.  He will look to explore his options in unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career in the summer of 2015.  He will only re-sign in Boston if the Celtics have a roster in place that can win multiple playoff series in the East.  This effectively gives the Celtics a deadline of July '15 to put the team in a position to be genuinely competitive heading into the 2015-2016 season.

Premise #2:
The Celtics are not going to have cap space to sign a max free agent this summer or next.  A sign-and-trade deal, though, could certainly go down.



So how does it happen?  How does Danny put the pieces in place over the next year and a half to make Rondo want to stay?

You may feel that Rondo might like to stay in Boston regardless, but let's put that to the side for the moment.  What pieces do you target if the team needs to be ready to compete for 45-50 wins and a top playoff seed a year and a half from now?



Here's how one way I could see it going down:

1. Get a pick in the 4-7 range.  You miss out on Embiid, Parker, and Wiggins, but you get the chance to draft Exum or Smart.  Not an ideal fit with Rondo, but that's too much talent to pass up. 

2. Shop Green, Bradley and multiple picks this summer with a legitimate starting center as the target.  Greg Monroe is the best option if you're looking for a scorer and Omer Asik is the best option if you're looking for a defensive anchor. 

3. Hope that Sullinger continues his trajectory towards quasi-stardom in Year 3 and averages a double double.


Smart / Exum, Sullinger, and Monroe / Asik, plus a stable of decent young supporting players -- that could be enough to convince Rondo to stick around.  Still, would that be more attractive than LA or New York?  I don't know.

[slamtheking]

there's a couple of other reasons for Rondo to stick around. 
1. C's can offer the best contract.
2. it's now Rondo's team which is something he's said he's looked forward to since sending out KG and PP.
3. we have a plethora of draft picks and expiring deals this year and next that could net us a very good player in return.
4. we figure to get a very good player in this draft (or as the result of trading that pick) and in the next draft (since we don't expect to be that good next year either and a lot of East teams will have improved in the draft this year).

[Who]

I think there is a better than fair chance that Ainge will have to wait until Rondo hits FA in 2015 before he is able to make the moves necessary to show Rondo this team can compete for a Championship again.

Sort of like Miami with D-Wade in 2010. They have the flexibility to make the moves, and, if they make them then, they keep D-Wade ... and if not, they lose D-Wade in FA. And enter a fully blown rebuilding process.

[Celtics18]

Premise:
Rondo will not sign an extension this summer.  He will look to explore his options in unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career in the summer of 2015.  This effectively gives the Celtics a deadline of July '15 to put the team in a position to be genuinely competitive heading into the 2015-2016 season.

Premise #2:
The Celtics are not going to have cap space to sign a max free agent this summer or next.  A sign-and-trade deal, though, could certainly go down.



So how does it happen?  How does Danny put the pieces in place over the next year and a half to make Rondo want to stay?

You may feel that Rondo might like to stay in Boston regardless, but let's put that to the side for the moment.  What pieces do you target if the team needs to be ready to compete for 45-50 wins and a top playoff seed a year and a half from now?



Here's how one way I could see it going down:

1. Get a pick in the 4-7 range.  You miss out on Embiid, Parker, and Wiggins, but you get the chance to draft Exum or Smart.  Not an ideal fit with Rondo, but that's too much talent to pass up. 

2. Shop Green and multiple picks this summer with a legitimate starting center as the target.  Greg Monroe is the best option if you're looking for a scorer and Omer Asik is the best option if you're looking for a defensive anchor. 

3. Hope that Sullinger continues his trajectory towards quasi-stardom in Year 3 and averages a double double.


Smart / Exum, Sullinger, and Monroe / Asik, plus a stable of decent young supporting players -- that could be enough to convince Rondo to stick around.  Still, would that be more attractive than LA or New York?  I don't know.

I like your options (particularly, numbers 2 and 3--although, I'm not a big Monroe fan).  That said, I don't think that premise one is a given.  I think there's a more than fair chance that Rondo will be willing to sign an extension this summer.  Sure, it's for a lot less than he could conceivably get if he waits a year, but I don't think anyone is likely to offer Rondo close to $100million over five years once he hits free agency.  Hopefully, he'll recognize that fact and stay in Boston for the price tag of 3 years at about $45million. 

[PhoSita]

I think there is a better than fair chance that Ainge will have to wait until Rondo hits FA in 2015 before he is able to make the moves necessary to show Rondo this team can compete for a Championship again.

Sort of like Miami with D-Wade in 2010. They have the flexibility to make the moves, and, if they make them then, they keep D-Wade ... and if not, they lose D-Wade in FA. And enter a fully blown rebuilding process.

Perhaps.  But who is the target, in that case?  You do a full-out gamble to try and get Kevin Love?  I'm skeptical that either Love or Rondo is enough to convince the other to stay in Boston.  I think you need a 3rd guy.  Maybe that's whoever they take in the draft this summer.

[PhoSita]

I like your options (particularly, numbers 2 and 3--although, I'm not a big Monroe fan).  That said, I don't think that premise one is a given.  I think there's a more than fair chance that Rondo will be willing to sign an extension this summer.  Sure, it's for a lot less than he could conceivably get if he waits a year, but I don't think anyone is likely to offer Rondo close to $100million over five years once he hits free agency.  Hopefully, he'll recognize that fact and stay in Boston for the price tag of 3 years at about $45million.

Maybe Rondo will be a team player and give us the hometown discount and all that, because he just loves being here.  I don't think so, but it's possible.  Like I said, though, I'm gonna put that discussion to the side for now.  I'm curious how people see this team becoming ready to really compete by next summer.  I think Ainge has a major task in front of him if that's the goal.

there's a couple of other reasons for Rondo to stick around. 
1. C's can offer the best contract.
2. it's now Rondo's team which is something he's said he's looked forward to since sending out KG and PP.
3. we have a plethora of draft picks and expiring deals this year and next that could net us a very good player in return.
4. we figure to get a very good player in this draft (or as the result of trading that pick) and in the next draft (since we don't expect to be that good next year either and a lot of East teams will have improved in the draft this year).

I don't feel that #1 really matters that much.  When was the last time a major free agent stuck around on his original team because he wanted more $$? 

I think #2 matters, but I think what matters most to Rondo is making the playoffs and being on the biggest stage where he can win games and put on a show.  We've seen in his career that he relishes those big games, and that he's super competitive. 

I just don't buy that he'll be willing to commit to spend the rest of his athletic prime on a team that isn't ready to play winning basketball against the best teams in the league.


With that in mind, I think the fact that the team is likely to have a nice pick this summer and that there are more draft assets stocked up in future years only plays into it if Ainge uses all of those draft assets to get productive, talented players on the team by next summer.  I don't think you can sell a free agent on the fact that you have a bunch of picks lined up in the future.  This is a star-driven league and players want to be on teams that have stars.

[RJ87]

I think there is a better than fair chance that Ainge will have to wait until Rondo hits FA in 2015 before he is able to make the moves necessary to show Rondo this team can compete for a Championship again.

Sort of like Miami with D-Wade in 2010. They have the flexibility to make the moves, and, if they make them then, they keep D-Wade ... and if not, they lose D-Wade in FA. And enter a fully blown rebuilding process.

Perhaps.  But who is the target, in that case?  You do a full-out gamble to try and get Kevin Love?  I'm skeptical that either Love or Rondo is enough to convince the other to stay in Boston.  I think you need a 3rd guy.  Maybe that's whoever they take in the draft this summer.

The draft is key this offseason. If we get one of the fantastic four (Parker, Embiid, Exum, Wiggins), then I think Danny tries to extend Rondo and preserve as much cap space for 2015 as possible.

If the pick is #5 or lower, I can see Ainge trading it in a package. Possibly for a Kevin Love or some other big name with a foot out the door.

[Who]

I think there is a better than fair chance that Ainge will have to wait until Rondo hits FA in 2015 before he is able to make the moves necessary to show Rondo this team can compete for a Championship again.

Sort of like Miami with D-Wade in 2010. They have the flexibility to make the moves, and, if they make them then, they keep D-Wade ... and if not, they lose D-Wade in FA. And enter a fully blown rebuilding process.

Perhaps.  But who is the target, in that case?  You do a full-out gamble to try and get Kevin Love?  I'm skeptical that either Love or Rondo is enough to convince the other to stay in Boston.  I think you need a 3rd guy.  Maybe that's whoever they take in the draft this summer.

No idea who is available in FA 2015 or possible trade target with cap space.

I think K-Love will be made available in a trade before 2015 and will consequently never hit the FA market. I think Minnesota are rightly scared that K-Love will leave them and will trade him if they cannot find a way to upgrade their team around K-Love in the near future. I also think a trade for K-Love is Ainge's best opportunity at forming a foundation to a title contender prior to Rondo's 2015 FA.

[D.o.s.]

This was the best I could find:

[RJ87]

I think there is a better than fair chance that Ainge will have to wait until Rondo hits FA in 2015 before he is able to make the moves necessary to show Rondo this team can compete for a Championship again.

Sort of like Miami with D-Wade in 2010. They have the flexibility to make the moves, and, if they make them then, they keep D-Wade ... and if not, they lose D-Wade in FA. And enter a fully blown rebuilding process.

Perhaps.  But who is the target, in that case?  You do a full-out gamble to try and get Kevin Love?  I'm skeptical that either Love or Rondo is enough to convince the other to stay in Boston.  I think you need a 3rd guy.  Maybe that's whoever they take in the draft this summer.

No idea who is available in FA 2015 or possible trade target with cap space.

I think K-Love will be made available in a trade before 2015 and will consequently never hit the FA market. I think Minnesota are rightly scared that K-Love will leave them and will trade him if they cannot find a way to upgrade their team around K-Love in the near future. I also think a trade for K-Love is Ainge's best opportunity at forming a foundation to a title contender prior to Rondo's 2015 FA.

KEvin Love
Marc Gasol
Lamarcus Aldridge (may re up though)
Roy Hibbert
Al Horford could opt out too, I think

[PhoSita]

I think there is a better than fair chance that Ainge will have to wait until Rondo hits FA in 2015 before he is able to make the moves necessary to show Rondo this team can compete for a Championship again.

Sort of like Miami with D-Wade in 2010. They have the flexibility to make the moves, and, if they make them then, they keep D-Wade ... and if not, they lose D-Wade in FA. And enter a fully blown rebuilding process.

Perhaps.  But who is the target, in that case?  You do a full-out gamble to try and get Kevin Love?  I'm skeptical that either Love or Rondo is enough to convince the other to stay in Boston.  I think you need a 3rd guy.  Maybe that's whoever they take in the draft this summer.

No idea who is available in FA 2015 or possible trade target with cap space.

I think K-Love will be made available in a trade before 2015 and will consequently never hit the FA market. I also think a trade for K-Love is Ainge's best opportunity at forming a foundation to a title contender prior to Rondo's 2015 FA.

You may be right.  I must say I'm uncomfortable with the idea of basically placing all of our hopes on acquiring one particular player.


As noted above, Gasol, Horford, Aldridge, and Hibbert are some other names.  Personally I doubt Aldridge or Hibbert will be available because they are already on very good teams with more talent than the Celtics.  Gasol or Horford would be good targets, however.

Of course, the danger of targeting another guy who is a free agent the same summer as Rondo is that if either one bolts, the other probably does as well, and then you're left with nothing.

[LilRip]

this is a really good topic and i think it deserves a bump. i don't have any answers as of the moment yet though. 

[Evantime34]

The Organic Option
1. Sullinger Breaks out posting 16/10 next year
2. Olynyk improves and shows that he has great potential
3. Bradley stays healthy and develops a way to get to the basket/free throw line
4. We knock both of our picks out of the park and they contribute immediately

If we can surround Rondo with a young nucleus that is ready to win now but will also only continue to get better it's unlikely he leaves

The Big 3 lite option
1. Bring in two all star caliber (or at least very useful) players via trade/sign and trade
a. Kevin Love
b. Gordon Hayward
c. Pau Gasol
d. Josh Smith
e. Omer Asik
f. Chris Bosh

Ideally we would have the assets to deal for two of those guys using our picks, TPE and around $7 MM of non guaranteed contracts for next year to deal for a guy who can help us now, but not give too many of those assets away that we can't supplement who we traded for with young draft picks.

[Vermont Green]

So if I understand correctly, in July 2014, we can offer him a contract extension that would in effect be 4 years as follow:

2014/15   $12.9 M  (Age 28)
2015/16   $13.9 M  (Age 29)
2016/17   $14.9 M  (Age 30)
2017/18   $16.0 M  (Age 31)

If he makes it to unrestricted FA, the ceiling of a Max contract depends on the salary cap but he can probably start in 2015/16 at up to $18M (35% of Cap) and go up from there.

I think anything close to the max is too much for Rondo.  I think the extension parameters, if accepted, would be a hometown discount but I don't think going much higher than that is smart.

My plan would be to offer him the extension with the final year a player option which I think is pretty valuable to the player (I assume that is OK with the CBA).  If for whatever reason, he is not happy with Boston, he can hit the market at a prime age and either pick a contender or go for max dollars.  In the meantime, he makes really good money and even if he is reinjured or otherwise his skills diminish, he still can elect to collect that final $16M big payday.

If he will not accept this, trade him.  I feel if he gets to FA, we will likely lose him or if we do keep him, we will overpay and hurt our financial flexibility.

That is my plan to keep Rondo.

[CoachBo]

So if I understand correctly, in July 2014, we can offer him a contract extension that would in effect be 4 years as follow:

2014/15   $12.9 M  (Age 28)
2015/16   $13.9 M  (Age 29)
2016/17   $14.9 M  (Age 30)
2017/18   $16.0 M  (Age 31)

If he makes it to unrestricted FA, the ceiling of a Max contract depends on the salary cap but he can probably start in 2015/16 at up to $18M (35% of Cap) and go up from there.

I think anything close to the max is too much for Rondo.  I think the extension parameters, if accepted, would be a hometown discount but I don't think going much higher than that is smart.

My plan would be to offer him the extension with the final year a player option which I think is pretty valuable to the player (I assume that is OK with the CBA).  If for whatever reason, he is not happy with Boston, he can hit the market at a prime age and either pick a contender or go for max dollars.  In the meantime, he makes really good money and even if he is reinjured or otherwise his skills diminish, he still can elect to collect that final $16M big payday.

If he will not accept this, trade him.  I feel if he gets to FA, we will likely lose him or if we do keep him, we will overpay and hurt our financial flexibility.

That is my plan to keep Rondo.

My first goal is to win games. It is not now - nor will it ever be - to obsess over keeping one player.

With that said, TP Vermont. This is a solid, logical plan built on basketball logic - not fan love.