We deserve a top 5 pick this yr. not these other teams

[guava_wrench]

I'd like to defend the OP..

Let's start this off by talking about "Basketball Gods, NBA Karma, and the former tyranny of Stern"

BBall gods supposedely frown upon tanking, wether it's the players or front office.

Karma- there is definitely a difference between our strategy and say The Lakers.  We actually try to win sometimes and can put more than 4 players on the court.

Stern- weighted balls and conspiracies aside, there has been a trend of teams with the most balls not winning. I'm sure the math guys will say "anomaly".

Having said all that, I agree that the C ' s deserve a higher draft pick than obvious tankers and hopefully the mythological and spiritual side of us outweighs the tyranny of stern.

This is supposed to be a bit comedic/sarcastic, but there's no denying the Celts have a strategy that the obvious tankers don't have and it's called trying to win. Hopefully we have some good luck on draft day for that. (karma) 

The team with the most numbers still has a 75% chance of not winning. So, no, it is not an anomaly. It is expect that the team with the most ball will most likely not get the top pick unless a person has not idea how the lottery works.

I give you a pass on the rest since you indicated you were serious about it.

(If understanding percentages makes one a math guy, then our education system has failed miserably! I'm pretty sure that percentages are middle school math!)

[Nerf DPOY]

I'd like to defend the OP..

Let's start this off by talking about "Basketball Gods, NBA Karma, and the former tyranny of Stern"

BBall gods supposedely frown upon tanking, wether it's the players or front office.

Karma- there is definitely a difference between our strategy and say The Lakers.  We actually try to win sometimes and can put more than 4 players on the court.

Stern- weighted balls and conspiracies aside, there has been a trend of teams with the most balls not winning. I'm sure the math guys will say "anomaly".

Having said all that, I agree that the C ' s deserve a higher draft pick than obvious tankers and hopefully the mythological and spiritual side of us outweighs the tyranny of stern.

This is supposed to be a bit comedic/sarcastic, but there's no denying the Celts have a strategy that the obvious tankers don't have and it's called trying to win. Hopefully we have some good luck on draft day for that. (karma) 

The team with the most balls still has a 75% chance of not winning. So, no, it is not an anomaly. It is expect that the team with the most ball will most likely not get the top pick unless a person has not idea how the lottery works.

I give you a pass on the rest since you indicated you were serious about it.

(If understanding percentages makes one a math guy, then our education system has failed miserably! I'm pretty sure that percentages are middle school math!)

This thread is paradoxical to me in that everyone knocking the lottery system appears to be actually arguing in it's favor.

Not you Guava Wrench.

[slamtheking]

Deserve's got nothin' to do with it.

You're just killing me today Faf.  Another TP for you 

[PhoSita]

In terms of "deserving"...  We just traded away two future Hall of Famers, both of whom were loyal to the franchise.  One of those superstars had played his entire career in green.

So, when you're factoring karma into the equation, I'm not sure that Boston ranks that high.

Yeah, I agree.  Danny's moves over the last year or so have earned him anew his reputation of being cold and calculating ahead of sentimentality.

If you want to talk about teams "deserving" to get a good player in the draft, I'd look at Phoenix or Chicago as teams that have refused to intentionally get a lot worse or aim to draft high, even when it might have made a lot of sense to do so given aging stars or bad luck with injuries.


Luckily for us, the lottery has nothing to do with "deserving."  The league might be better off if the system were changed so that there weren't as much of a reward for putting a bad product on the floor intentionally, but it is what it is.

[obnoxiousmime]

The reason the weights don't work as well as they should is because the lottery only decides the top three picks. The remaining picks 4-14 are then distributed in order based on record.

Especially in years where the draft may have more than three potential "stars" at the top, there is definitely an incentive to tank. If the Bucks do finish last, they know they will have guaranteed at least the fourth overall pick. The fact that it also gives them the best odds at winning one of the top three spots is the extra bonus.

Everybody knows the top three picks are hardly a guarantee. That's not really a valid argument against tanking, however.

[LarBrd33]

I know we are only a half game out of the #4 pick, but a nice little winning streak would put us right back into the thick of the 8th seed race.  We've played well since rondo's return.  We will probably make the playoffs this year.

[manl_lui]

I still have a feeling we will land a top 5 pick this year. Regardless of how we play for the rest of the year. As I said on the other threads, I think this team as is, is a 25-30 win team and no more than that.

I firmly believe we definitely can get pick 4 or 5, but of course, the real prize for us is in the top 3. I really wanna grab Parker, that makes Green so much more expendable and help us free up more cap space.

[hpantazo]

with the way the hawks and the Nets are playing, it's still possible that they both end up missing the playoffs and we get a 2nd lottery pick this year. It's not too much to think that two of the Knicks, Cavs, and Pistons make the playoffs, particularly with the pressure that the Cleveland and Detroit GMs are facing to win now, and the Knicks not owning their first rounder this year.

[Boris Badenov]

with the way the hawks and the Nets are playing, it's still possible that they both end up missing the playoffs and we get a 2nd lottery pick this year. It's not too much to think that two of the Knicks, Cavs, and Pistons make the playoffs, particularly with the pressure that the Cleveland and Detroit GMs are facing to win now, and the Knicks not owning their first rounder this year.

I dunno. KG has quietly started to play really good ball over the last month. If they bump his minutes up to 30 or so, and Pierce keeps playing well, BKN will finish the season strong.

[Fafnir]

with the way the hawks and the Nets are playing, it's still possible that they both end up missing the playoffs and we get a 2nd lottery pick this year. It's not too much to think that two of the Knicks, Cavs, and Pistons make the playoffs, particularly with the pressure that the Cleveland and Detroit GMs are facing to win now, and the Knicks not owning their first rounder this year.

Nets are still playing well. Atlanta is cratering a bit but I bet they'll still hang on to a playoff spot.

[GreenWarrior]

i'd like to thank those that defended or at least understood my illogical thoughts on the nba lottery.

as far as ainge trading pierce and KG and how that relates to us "tanking". if anyone thinks we were going to be a playoff team, much less a championship contending team is highly fooling themselves. minus rondo for half the yr. this team with KG & pierce would have needed a lot of help. help they weren't going to get via trade or free agency.

so what were they supposed to do? 

[PhoSita]

I know we are only a half game out of the #4 pick, but a nice little winning streak would put us right back into the thick of the 8th seed race.  We've played well since rondo's return.  We will probably make the playoffs this year.

Either you are extremely easily swayed by recent events, or you just love getting a reaction from as many people as possible.

[Nerf DPOY]

so what were they supposed to do?

What they did. I just wouldn't get sanctimonious about it.

To truly be competitive while still rebuilding? How about significantly better options than Pressey and Faverani off the bench? Keeping Crawford until Rondo got his feet under him?

[Nerf DPOY]

I know we are only a half game out of the #4 pick, but a nice little winning streak would put us right back into the thick of the 8th seed race.  We've played well since rondo's return.  We will probably make the playoffs this year.

Either you are extremely easily swayed by recent events, or you just love getting a reaction from as many people as possible.

I'm guessing the latter combined with being really bored.

[greg683x]

we've been screwed out of the number one pick twice when we've blatantly tanked (2007, 1997).   So lets get off our high horse when we act like our franchise is above the ones who are blatantly tanking this year

all of us should know better than to be putting too much stock into winning the last place race. 

let the chips fall where they may, we have so many first round picks over the next several years, dont get your panties in a bunch over one year.