This years draft 3 years from now

[PaulAllen]

Here my list of how they will rank in 3 years... just my 2 cents

1. Wiggins
2. Vonleah
3. Embiid
4. Exum
5. Parker
6. C. Taylor
7. Randle
8. Smart
9. Ennis
10. Gordon

[sofutomygaha]

Here my list of how they will rank in 3 years... just my 2 cents

1. Wiggins
2. Vonleah
3. Embiid
4. Exum
5. Parker
6. C. Taylor
7. Randle
8. Smart
9. Ennis
10. Gordon

I hate that hardly any of these guys are moving the needle, statistically speaking, on the NCAA leader boards. For such a great draft, it seems like none of the top prospects are managing to stand out in actual basketball games the way that guys like Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Damian Lillard, Demarcus Cousins, Jared Sullinger, Blake Griffin, etc all did. I look at the leaders in efficiency or win share stats, for example, and aside from Doug McDermott I see a bunch of nobodies. Are you worried that Aaron Gordon, who you have tenth, is the only guy on the list that ranks in the top 20 college players for win shares on either side of the ball?

[LarBrd33]

Here my list of how they will rank in 3 years... just my 2 cents

1. Wiggins
2. Vonleah
3. Embiid
4. Exum
5. Parker
6. C. Taylor
7. Randle
8. Smart
9. Ennis
10. Gordon

I hate that hardly any of these guys are moving the needle, statistically speaking, on the NCAA leader boards. For such a great draft, it seems like none of the top prospects are managing to stand out in actual basketball games the way that guys like Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Damian Lillard, Demarcus Cousins, Jared Sullinger, Blake Griffin, etc all did. I look at the leaders in efficiency or win share stats, for example, and aside from Doug McDermott I see a bunch of nobodies. Are you worried that Aaron Gordon, who you have tenth, is the only guy on the list that ranks in the top 20 college players for win shares on either side of the ball?

What?

[sofutomygaha]

Here my list of how they will rank in 3 years... just my 2 cents

1. Wiggins
2. Vonleah
3. Embiid
4. Exum
5. Parker
6. C. Taylor
7. Randle
8. Smart
9. Ennis
10. Gordon

I hate that hardly any of these guys are moving the needle, statistically speaking, on the NCAA leader boards. For such a great draft, it seems like none of the top prospects are managing to stand out in actual basketball games the way that guys like Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Damian Lillard, Demarcus Cousins, Jared Sullinger, Blake Griffin, etc all did. I look at the leaders in efficiency or win share stats, for example, and aside from Doug McDermott I see a bunch of nobodies. Are you worried that Aaron Gordon, who you have tenth, is the only guy on the list that ranks in the top 20 college players for win shares on either side of the ball?

What?

lol. Just making conversation.

[CelticG1]

I dont know much about college ball but how old are these these top prospects.

If many are freshman couldnt that be the disconnect?

[PaulAllen]

well one factor is min per.. Embiid and Vonleah only average 20-25 while Taylor has just became available and only has a few minutes off bench...


Also factor they are all but one true freshman... so its a bit much to set those standards (Parker would be the strongest)

Im basing this list off what I have seen and what the ceiling is for each player and overall potential...

As for Gordon he could be much higher but I think he will be a ppor mans Blake who can come off an NBA bench and provide fire, or start for a poorer team..

[LarBrd33]

Here my list of how they will rank in 3 years... just my 2 cents

1. Wiggins
2. Vonleah
3. Embiid
4. Exum
5. Parker
6. C. Taylor
7. Randle
8. Smart
9. Ennis
10. Gordon

I hate that hardly any of these guys are moving the needle, statistically speaking, on the NCAA leader boards. For such a great draft, it seems like none of the top prospects are managing to stand out in actual basketball games the way that guys like Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Damian Lillard, Demarcus Cousins, Jared Sullinger, Blake Griffin, etc all did. I look at the leaders in efficiency or win share stats, for example, and aside from Doug McDermott I see a bunch of nobodies. Are you worried that Aaron Gordon, who you have tenth, is the only guy on the list that ranks in the top 20 college players for win shares on either side of the ball?

What?

lol. Just making conversation.

I just wasn't understanding you.  Do you mean that they aren't impacting the win/loss record of their teams?  Or are you suggesting that they have been statistically weak compared to those other prospects?

You brought up Lillard, for example... who averaged 11.5 points, 2.9 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 1.1 steal on 43%/37%/84% as a Freshman.  Are you suggesting that Wiggins/Parker/Randle/Embiid are doing worse? 

[sofutomygaha]

Here my list of how they will rank in 3 years... just my 2 cents

1. Wiggins
2. Vonleah
3. Embiid
4. Exum
5. Parker
6. C. Taylor
7. Randle
8. Smart
9. Ennis
10. Gordon

I hate that hardly any of these guys are moving the needle, statistically speaking, on the NCAA leader boards. For such a great draft, it seems like none of the top prospects are managing to stand out in actual basketball games the way that guys like Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Damian Lillard, Demarcus Cousins, Jared Sullinger, Blake Griffin, etc all did. I look at the leaders in efficiency or win share stats, for example, and aside from Doug McDermott I see a bunch of nobodies. Are you worried that Aaron Gordon, who you have tenth, is the only guy on the list that ranks in the top 20 college players for win shares on either side of the ball?

What?

lol. Just making conversation.

I just wasn't understanding you.  Do you mean that they aren't impacting the win/loss record of their teams?  Or are you suggesting that they have been statistically weak compared to those other prospects?

You brought up Lillard, for example... who averaged 11.5 points, 2.9 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 1.1 steal on 43%/37%/84% as a Freshman.  Are you suggesting that Wiggins/Parker/Randle/Embiid are doing worse?

That's what I'm scratching my head about, yes. Here, for example, are the 2014 leaders in win shares per 40 minutes:

Win Shares Per 40 Minutes
1.   Xavier Thames-SDGST   .297
2.   Jacob Parker-SFA   .290
3.   Alan Williams-CASB   .289
4.   Delon Wright-UT   .277
5.   Denzel Livingston-   .271
6.   Doug McDermott-CREIGH   .266
7.   T.J. Bray-PRIN   .266
8.   Sean Kilpatrick-CIN   .265
9.   Javonte Green-RADF   .256
10.   Shawn Jones-MIDTN   .253
11.   Casey Prather-FL   .250
12.   Wayne Blackshear-LOU   .250
13.   Sam Dower-GONZ   .248
14.   Jameel Warney-STONY   .247
15.   Keifer Sykes-GB   .246
16.   Nikola Gajic-SFA   .244
17.   Davion Berry-WEBST   .244
18.   Frank Kaminsky-WI   .243
19.   Aaron White-IA   .243
20.   Javon McCrea-BUF   .242

... aside from McDermott, are any of those guys pro prospects?

Compare that to 2012
1.   Anthony Davis-KY   .314
2.   Damian Lillard-WEBST   .293
3.   Jared Sullinger-OHST   .282
4.   Mike Muscala-BUCK   .273
5.   Mike Scott-VA   .272
6.   C.J. McCollum-LEH   .271
7.   Cody Zeller-IN   .270
8.   Tyler Zeller-NC   .268
9.   Jae Crowder-MARQ   .265
10.   Isaiah Canaan-MURRST   .262
11.   Ricardo Ratliffe-MO   .244
12.   De'Mon Brooks-DAVID   .244
13.   Nate Wolters-SDST   .244
14.   Doug McDermott-CREIGH   .244
15.   Andrew Nicholson-STBON   .243
16.   Joe Ragland-WICHST   .243
17.   Jake Cohen-DAVID   .242
18.   Seth Tuttle-NIA   .241
19.   Robert Covington-TNST   .240
20.   Jack Cooley-NDAME   .238

There are six big time pro prospects in the top 10, and those first three are doing quite well indeed.

It's weird, right? For such a strong draft class? I guess I'm saying I'd feel a lot better about lottery picking from these stud players named Wiggins, Embiid, Parker, Randle, Vonleh, Gordon if they were showing up as elite in metrics of college performance.