What is Sullinger's realistic trade value?

[tarheelsxxiii]

Not sure I understand the question. Why would you trade Sully?

Someone compared his trade value to Terrence Jones. A rebuttal seems unnecessary.

Someone questioned his ceiling. That's odd... don't we question the ceiling of dudes that suck but are super athletic? Sully is the exact opposite... he isn't super athletic, yet a very good basketball player at a very young age. He is already rock solid, and he can (and I assure you, he will) get better.

[crimson_stallion]

DA is not trading a building block of this team. Sorry it ain't happening.

Sully is not a building block...he's a future role player who may one day become a very good role player.

It's unlikely Sully will ever be a #1 or #2 option on a good team.  Honestly, I'm not sure he'll even become a #3 option on a contender.  That's not the type of player you build around, it's the type of player you use to fill out a roster (around your building block). 

Sully is a lot like Avery Bradley.  Unlikely to ever be a star, but could be a really, really good role player and glue-guy.  He's the type of great support player who could turn a good team in to a great one.  That said, if you get a chance to trade him and get a legit All-Star and #1 or #2 guy back in return...you do it in a hearbeat.

You can bet your back side that Danny would too.

[crimson_stallion]

Hi SPD-

  It looks like no one so far as actually taken your question at face value, and I think it's an interesting one. I'll give it a shot.

  Sullinger is in year two of a rookie contract. His health concerns are not gone, but things are looking better. They won't really go away until he has played a couple healthy seasons and significantly improved his body. His level of play right now suggests solid starter with the potential to be a fringe all-star if everything goes right.

  It does depend who you are trading with, of course. Bad teams would rather have picks. Good teams would rather have players. Capped teams don't want contracts. Etc

  This is guesswork, but I'd that's worth a top-5 protected 1st rounder or an above average mid-career starter who is cost controlled for a few years. Here's a completely imaginary tier of assets that I'd put Sullinger in with:

(1) a draft pick in the 6-10 range

or

(2) a very good sub-all-star veteran who is fairly paid or slightly overpaid and not a 7-foot center (Paul Millsap, Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith, Zach Randolph)

or

(3) a very good rookie deal player who probably does not look to have all-star in his future, and is not a 7-foot center. Basically a player like him (Kemba Walker, Kahwi Leonard, Harrison Barnes, Terrence Ross)

  Don't ask me if I think the owners of these assets would do one-for-one swaps, because it's also a matter of style, cap situation, and outlook

depending on who's available this year between 6-10, I might agree but it would have to be a draft as stacked as this one.

I disagree with #2 -- take Sully who's producing at their level for much less money.

Disagree with #3 too  -- Sully's at a level those guys hope to reach and Sully continues to improve

hmm...Green glasses I think.

Smith, Iggy, Millsap, Randolf are all better players than Sully overall.  Sully is average 13 and 8 on the 4th worst team in the NBA. All four of those guys have put up comparable (or better) numbers in the past on legit playoff teams.

I don't agree with you on #3 either.  I think Leonard is at a higher level than Sully right now, likeise Barnes probably.  Both of those guys have been producing sully-type figures on much, much better teams. 

The fact that Boston is so bad exhagerates how good Sully is.  Our #1 scoring option is Jeff Green at 16 a game.  Our #2 option is Bradley at about 14 a game.   Sully has been the #3 option for most of the season despite being on a bad team. 

If Sully was as good as everybody thinks he is, then he should be putting up at least 18/10 on a nightly basis for a team as bad as this one.  Either that or he should be putting up his current numbers with insanely high efficiency (i.e. 55% FG).

He's doing neither - he's scoring around 13 points a night on around 45% from the field, on the 4th worst team in the NBA.   

Take a look a a guy like Tyreke Evans.  As a rookie he was scoring around 20/5/5 on a bad team, and he never became a superstar.  Demarcus Cousins is becoming a superstar, but he has averaged aroudn 18/9 every year for Sacramento while shooting similar percentanges to what Sully is putting up now.

Sully is a nice player, I like his toughness and his skill set...but I still think that people here overrate him dramatically.  I seriously doubt Memphis would trade Randolf for Sully straight up (even if the salaries matched) - same with Millsap, Iggy and even Smith. 

[sofutomygaha]

Not sure I understand the question. Why would you trade Sully?

Someone compared his trade value to Terrence Jones. A rebuttal seems unnecessary.

Someone questioned his ceiling. That's odd... don't we question the ceiling of dudes that suck but are super athletic? Sully is the exact opposite... he isn't super athletic, yet a very good basketball player at a very young age. He is already rock solid, and he can (and I assure you, he will) get better.

That someone is me, and I, like the OP am in no way suggesting to trade Sully. I'm having a bit of fun trying to figure his market value.

A rebuttal would be necessary if you wanted to make a point about Terrence Jones not having comparable value. You imply that you don't think very highly of Terrence Jones, but I have no idea why. Terrence Jones is an athletic, versatile, young two-way player who is presently producing at similar rates as Sullinger, at the same position, for a winning team. He also has a really, really neat sky-hook.

In my experience, the ceilings of the skilled but un-athletic are questioned far more than the ceilings of the unskilled but super-athletic. This seems like a commonplace idea to me. I'm a little surprised to hear you imply that the opposite is more true.

[sofutomygaha]

Take a look at the stars who have been traded in the past 10-15 years and tell me how many deals have involved a young player clearly better than Sullinger.

I might take you up on your homework assignment later, but we've already mentioned Al Jefferson. The Lakers got young Caron Butler and young Lamar Odom for Shaq; those are both upside players who peaked at a fringe all-star level.

Keep in mind we're not talking about eventual value, we're talking about perceived value at the time of the trade.  A player who was seen as more valuable but ended up sucking counts against Sullinger, a player who wasn't seen as more valuable than Sullinger but peaked higher than you expected Sullinger to peak doesn't count.

Unless those are the only deals ever made for stars, it seems likely that a decent percentage of such trades involved packages where no player was clearly better than Sullinger.

I'll help you out a bit.  Here are (most if not all of) the players named to the first, second, or third team All-NBA in the past three seasons who have been traded (not including sign-and-trades) at some point in their career after becoming established players (so not Marc Gasol): Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, James Harden, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph

But TS- you are right that it has been a mixed bag, but many of those trades DID involve young sky-is-the-limit type players. Eric Gordon moved in the Chris Paul deal at a time when Hollinger was tauting him at the time as the next Dwyane Wade. The Lakers moved Andrew Bynum to get Howard.

The Pau trade was a historic swindle, so maybe we set that one aside.

Zach Randolph was not a superstar by reputation before he was traded by the Knicks. Was Harden a superstar before the Rockets? Was he a consensus max player? He was not an all-star yet.

Is the Melo trade an exception? Gallinari was 21, 6-foot-10, and shooting .400 from three in his young career. He was averaging 15 points a game. Is Sullinger in the same tier as 2009 Danillo Gallinari?

[LooseCannon]

Take a look at the stars who have been traded in the past 10-15 years and tell me how many deals have involved a young player clearly better than Sullinger.

I might take you up on your homework assignment later, but we've already mentioned Al Jefferson. The Lakers got young Caron Butler and young Lamar Odom for Shaq; those are both upside players who peaked at a fringe all-star level.

Keep in mind we're not talking about eventual value, we're talking about perceived value at the time of the trade.  A player who was seen as more valuable but ended up sucking counts against Sullinger, a player who wasn't seen as more valuable than Sullinger but peaked higher than you expected Sullinger to peak doesn't count.

Unless those are the only deals ever made for stars, it seems likely that a decent percentage of such trades involved packages where no player was clearly better than Sullinger.

I'll help you out a bit.  Here are (most if not all of) the players named to the first, second, or third team All-NBA in the past three seasons who have been traded (not including sign-and-trades) at some point in their career after becoming established players (so not Marc Gasol): Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, James Harden, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph

But TS- you are right that it has been a mixed bag, but many of those trades DID involve young sky-is-the-limit type players. Eric Gordon moved in the Chris Paul deal at a time when Hollinger was tauting him at the time as the next Dwyane Wade. The Lakers moved Andrew Bynum to get Howard.

The Pau trade was a historic swindle, so maybe we set that one aside.

Zach Randolph was not a superstar by reputation before he was traded by the Knicks. Was Harden a superstar before the Rockets? Was he a consensus max player? He was not an all-star yet.

Is the Melo trade an exception? Gallinari was 21, 6-foot-10, and shooting .400 from three in his young career. He was averaging 15 points a game. Is Sullinger in the same tier as 2009 Danillo Gallinari?

The Howard trade is complicated, but I'd consider not just what the Lakers gave up but what the Magic got in return for Howard.

When Portland traded Randolph to the Knicks on draft day in 2007, he was a 25-year-old coming off a season where he averaged 23.6 points and 10.1 rebounds per game who was on a big contract, but the Blazers were purging guys with character issues, even if they were viewed as All-Star caliber.

Harden wanted max money.  OKC didn't want to give it to him.  They traded him because it was assumed someone else would.  It was understood that he would be a 20+ ppg guy as a starter wherever he went.

Sullinger is averaging 17.9 points and 10.8 rebounds per 36 minutes.  I think those numbers are high enough that someone can believe he can be a 20-10 guy at his peak.  Most people are optimistic that a 21-year-old hasn't peaked yet.  Some people will believe his numbers will be better as a full-time power forward.  Now, I am not saying Sullinger will be a 20-10 guy, but he has enough upside that someone will believe it, especially if they need to trade someone or lose him and they have to convince themselves that they are not being robbed in a trade.

If you want an estimate of Sullinger's trade value, imagine what sort of contract he will get as a free agent in a couple of years.  If he is a guy you expect to get more than $10m/year, then you should treat him as a guy with the potential to be at least a fringe All-Star candidate.  If you can't imagine him being worth more than $8m/year, then you should consider him to have trade value closer to that of Avery Bradley (if Bradley wasn't a restricted free agent this summer).

[BballTim]

Hi SPD-

  It looks like no one so far as actually taken your question at face value, and I think it's an interesting one. I'll give it a shot.

  Sullinger is in year two of a rookie contract. His health concerns are not gone, but things are looking better. They won't really go away until he has played a couple healthy seasons and significantly improved his body. His level of play right now suggests solid starter with the potential to be a fringe all-star if everything goes right.

  It does depend who you are trading with, of course. Bad teams would rather have picks. Good teams would rather have players. Capped teams don't want contracts. Etc

  This is guesswork, but I'd that's worth a top-5 protected 1st rounder or an above average mid-career starter who is cost controlled for a few years. Here's a completely imaginary tier of assets that I'd put Sullinger in with:

(1) a draft pick in the 6-10 range

or

(2) a very good sub-all-star veteran who is fairly paid or slightly overpaid and not a 7-foot center (Paul Millsap, Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith, Zach Randolph)

or

(3) a very good rookie deal player who probably does not look to have all-star in his future, and is not a 7-foot center. Basically a player like him (Kemba Walker, Kahwi Leonard, Harrison Barnes, Terrence Ross)

  Don't ask me if I think the owners of these assets would do one-for-one swaps, because it's also a matter of style, cap situation, and outlook

depending on who's available this year between 6-10, I might agree but it would have to be a draft as stacked as this one.

I disagree with #2 -- take Sully who's producing at their level for much less money.

Disagree with #3 too  -- Sully's at a level those guys hope to reach and Sully continues to improve

hmm...Green glasses I think.

Smith, Iggy, Millsap, Randolf are all better players than Sully overall.  Sully is average 13 and 8 on the 4th worst team in the NBA. All four of those guys have put up comparable (or better) numbers in the past on legit playoff teams.

  Sure they have, at some point in time. Check out their production in their second years, it won't stack up too well to that paltry 13 and 8.

[kozlodoev]

Someone questioned his ceiling. That's odd... don't we question the ceiling of dudes that suck but are super athletic?

Yeah, because we typically don't expect their production to fall off a cliff because their chronic back injury got aggravated by the 30 surplus pounds that they're packing.

[BballTim]

Take a look at the stars who have been traded in the past 10-15 years and tell me how many deals have involved a young player clearly better than Sullinger.

I might take you up on your homework assignment later, but we've already mentioned Al Jefferson. The Lakers got young Caron Butler and young Lamar Odom for Shaq; those are both upside players who peaked at a fringe all-star level.

Keep in mind we're not talking about eventual value, we're talking about perceived value at the time of the trade.  A player who was seen as more valuable but ended up sucking counts against Sullinger, a player who wasn't seen as more valuable than Sullinger but peaked higher than you expected Sullinger to peak doesn't count.

Unless those are the only deals ever made for stars, it seems likely that a decent percentage of such trades involved packages where no player was clearly better than Sullinger.

I'll help you out a bit.  Here are (most if not all of) the players named to the first, second, or third team All-NBA in the past three seasons who have been traded (not including sign-and-trades) at some point in their career after becoming established players (so not Marc Gasol): Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, James Harden, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph

But TS- you are right that it has been a mixed bag, but many of those trades DID involve young sky-is-the-limit type players. Eric Gordon moved in the Chris Paul deal at a time when Hollinger was tauting him at the time as the next Dwyane Wade. The Lakers moved Andrew Bynum to get Howard.

The Pau trade was a historic swindle, so maybe we set that one aside.

Zach Randolph was not a superstar by reputation before he was traded by the Knicks. Was Harden a superstar before the Rockets? Was he a consensus max player? He was not an all-star yet.

Is the Melo trade an exception? Gallinari was 21, 6-foot-10, and shooting .400 from three in his young career. He was averaging 15 points a game. Is Sullinger in the same tier as 2009 Danillo Gallinari?

  Aside from the fact that you're just ignoring trades that don't fit your bill, in no way was Bynum a sky's the limit player when he was in his 8th or so nba season. Even with Gordon they were probably looking for his maintaining or slightly improving his production on a consistent basis.

[BballTim]

Someone questioned his ceiling. That's odd... don't we question the ceiling of dudes that suck but are super athletic?

Yeah, because we typically don't expect their production to fall off a cliff because their chronic back injury got aggravated by the 30 surplus pounds that they're packing.

  Most people see that as a possibility, I doubt most people are expecting to see it in the foreseeable future.

[guava_wrench]

In no way am I advocating trading Sullinger, both b/c he's a good player to re-build with and I enjoy watching him.  However, in this re-building process it is interesting to see what value our picks & players have around the league.

When evaluating players on other teams to possibly trade for, I've never been enthusiastic about players who put up very good numbers on bad teams.  Kevin Love is the perfect example to me, as well as Carmelo.  While I'd certainly rather have Love than not have him, I don't think he's a top 10 player to give a max contract to.  Ideally on a championship caliber team Love wouldn't put up anywhere near the stats he has. In addition, I've never particularly liked great offensive players who are sub-par defensively (i.e. Love, Carmelo...)

Which leads us to Jared Sullinger, who in his 2nd year now is averaging 13.4 pts, 8.1 rebs, and 77% from the FT line.  He appears recovered from the back surgery, and has improved as the season has gone along.  However, his eFG% is .463, 3-point% is 27.4%, he's not known as a particularly great defender, and it could be argued that much of his improved stats are a result of additional playing time w/o Garnett, etc.

If you were an opposing team looking to trade with the Celtics then how much value would you place on Sullinger?  If Sullinger did get traded, what should we as fans expect back in return?  Personally, as we re-build, I think he has more value to us than other teams.  But if a team were willing to give us a great deal of cap flexibility and/or a top 12 pick in this years draft, then I'd seriously consider trading him.

Before sharing my POV, I want to point out that I cannot stand Melo's game, but Melo put up good numbers on some good teams. Sure, his teams turn back to pumpkins in the playoffs, but we shouldn't mischaracterize him.

Back to the point of the thread. I share your concerns about Sully's efficiency. On the other hand, he can really rebound. That won't go away, even if his usage decreases.

My big question is whether he can find himself on offense to the point of being more consistent like Boozer or David West. His moves are improving day by day. His offensive repertoire in the post last season doesn't compare to this season. His moves are such that he shouldn't end up a swatfest a la Big Baby.

Due to his upbringing, I also expect Sully to improve every year. He is still young, so I expect his finesse in the post to improve drastically over the next few years. On the other hand, guys like West and Boozer aren't getting the same contracts as top centers or wings, meaning the value placed on guys with that kind of game isn't as high. Since I didn't research that last sentence, it is possible that I am way off in that assertion.

[sofutomygaha]

Take a look at the stars who have been traded in the past 10-15 years and tell me how many deals have involved a young player clearly better than Sullinger.

I might take you up on your homework assignment later, but we've already mentioned Al Jefferson. The Lakers got young Caron Butler and young Lamar Odom for Shaq; those are both upside players who peaked at a fringe all-star level.

Keep in mind we're not talking about eventual value, we're talking about perceived value at the time of the trade.  A player who was seen as more valuable but ended up sucking counts against Sullinger, a player who wasn't seen as more valuable than Sullinger but peaked higher than you expected Sullinger to peak doesn't count.

Unless those are the only deals ever made for stars, it seems likely that a decent percentage of such trades involved packages where no player was clearly better than Sullinger.

I'll help you out a bit.  Here are (most if not all of) the players named to the first, second, or third team All-NBA in the past three seasons who have been traded (not including sign-and-trades) at some point in their career after becoming established players (so not Marc Gasol): Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, James Harden, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph

But TS- you are right that it has been a mixed bag, but many of those trades DID involve young sky-is-the-limit type players. Eric Gordon moved in the Chris Paul deal at a time when Hollinger was tauting him at the time as the next Dwyane Wade. The Lakers moved Andrew Bynum to get Howard.

The Pau trade was a historic swindle, so maybe we set that one aside.

Zach Randolph was not a superstar by reputation before he was traded by the Knicks. Was Harden a superstar before the Rockets? Was he a consensus max player? He was not an all-star yet.

Is the Melo trade an exception? Gallinari was 21, 6-foot-10, and shooting .400 from three in his young career. He was averaging 15 points a game. Is Sullinger in the same tier as 2009 Danillo Gallinari?

  Aside from the fact that you're just ignoring trades that don't fit your bill, in no way was Bynum a sky's the limit player when he was in his 8th or so nba season. Even with Gordon they were probably looking for his maintaining or slightly improving his production on a consistent basis.

BBT that's simply not true on either count. I addressed every one of the trades Loose Cannon suggested, and I also threw in the shaq and garnett trades for good measure. If you don't think Bynum was perceived as a sky-is-the-limit player when he was traded, I suggest you look up any position ranking from 2012 before the trade. Most folks considered Bynum one of the top 5 centers in the league at that time. Going into his non-season in philly, he was ESPN's 13th ranked player and 2nd ranked center in the whole dang league and he was only 24 years old. Obviously that was a gross miscalculation, but we are talking about how players were perceived at the time of the trade.

[guava_wrench]

DA is not trading a building block of this team. Sorry it ain't happening.

Sully is not a building block...he's a future role player who may one day become a very good role player.

It's unlikely Sully will ever be a #1 or #2 option on a good team.  Honestly, I'm not sure he'll even become a #3 option on a contender.  That's not the type of player you build around, it's the type of player you use to fill out a roster (around your building block). 

Sully is a lot like Avery Bradley.  Unlikely to ever be a star, but could be a really, really good role player and glue-guy.  He's the type of great support player who could turn a good team in to a great one.  That said, if you get a chance to trade him and get a legit All-Star and #1 or #2 guy back in return...you do it in a hearbeat.

You can bet your back side that Danny would too.

Is there a reason why Sully couldn't become a Boozer or West type player? It isn't just your #1 guy who is a building block.

[kozlodoev]

Someone questioned his ceiling. That's odd... don't we question the ceiling of dudes that suck but are super athletic?

Yeah, because we typically don't expect their production to fall off a cliff because their chronic back injury got aggravated by the 30 surplus pounds that they're packing.

  Most people see that as a possibility, I doubt most people are expecting to see it in the foreseeable future.

Most people see upside as a possibility and not necessarily the foreseeable future.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to think that Sullinger can have serious issues by the time he's 27, not sure whether that's foreseeable future for you.

[crimson_stallion]

DA is not trading a building block of this team. Sorry it ain't happening.

Sully is not a building block...he's a future role player who may one day become a very good role player.

It's unlikely Sully will ever be a #1 or #2 option on a good team.  Honestly, I'm not sure he'll even become a #3 option on a contender.  That's not the type of player you build around, it's the type of player you use to fill out a roster (around your building block). 

Sully is a lot like Avery Bradley.  Unlikely to ever be a star, but could be a really, really good role player and glue-guy.  He's the type of great support player who could turn a good team in to a great one.  That said, if you get a chance to trade him and get a legit All-Star and #1 or #2 guy back in return...you do it in a hearbeat.

You can bet your back side that Danny would too.

Is there a reason why Sully couldn't become a Boozer or West type player? It isn't just your #1 guy who is a building block.

No team has ever really contended with Boozer or West as their #2 option.  When Boozer was in Utah they were a solid playoff team, but they weren't really contenders.  When West was with the Hornets, same deal.

Besides, both West and Boozer were better offensive players than Sully is.  West was one of the better mid range jump shooters at his position and an exceptional post player and similar deal with Boozer. 

Also talking about Sully's per-36 minute stats is a moot point IMO.  Between his tendancy to foul too much and his poor conditioning (which he seems to not be at all I improving) he seems incapable of playing more than about 30 minutes on a consistent basis.  Neither West nor Boozer had those type of stamina/conditioning issues, and certainly not to that extent.

Also from memory both Boozer and West were consistently up around the 50% Mark from the field, and neither one of those guys IIRC ever chucked up threes as often as Sully does.

Sully's offensive tendancies are more like a Rasheed Wallace, only Wallace was better at pretty much everything.

The people racing aboutSully are the same people who criticise Josh Smith and DMC for their poor offensive efficiency, yet Sully is shooting about as bad as those guys ever have historically.