What is Sullinger's realistic trade value?

[LarBrd33]

Is his value greater or less than al
Jefferson's at the time of the kg trade?  Big Al was 22 and coming off a 16/11 season -- his third year. Sully is 21 in his second year -- 14/8 and climbing.  Injury perceptions may have some influence but generally the two are similar in value at this point in their respective careers -- Al slightly higher.

Big Al probably had more value at the time.

-Prototypical size for his position (Sully is undersized)

-Younger  (Big Al was only 21 at the end of his 3rd year, Sully will be 22 at the end of his 2nd season)

-No health concerns

I'd also add that at the time there was a lot who thought Big Al had arguably the best post-up game in the league.  Tons of moves and a silky soft touch.  He seemed like a lock to become a 20-10 guy and he basically became it.  Big Al's ceiling seemed higher.

That said, if you were to compare 21 year old Al in his second year to 21 year old Sully in his second year, Sully is the better option.

I think those two have comparable trade value.   If you want to look at it without homer vision, Sully's trade value is probably on a par with Terrence Jones right now.

[BballTim]

Is his value greater or less than al
Jefferson's at the time of the kg trade?  Big Al was 22 and coming off a 16/11 season -- his third year. Sully is 21 in his second year -- 14/8 and climbing.  Injury perceptions may have some influence but generally the two are similar in value at this point in their respective careers -- Al slightly higher.

Big Al probably had more value at the time.

-Prototypical size for his position (Sully is undersized)

-Younger  (Big Al was only 21 at the end of his 3rd year, Sully will be 22 at the end of his 2nd season)

-No health concerns

I'd also add that at the time there was a lot who thought Big Al had arguably the best post-up game in the league.  Tons of moves and a silky soft touch.  He seemed like a lock to become a 20-10 guy and he basically became it.  Big Al's ceiling seemed higher.

That said, if you were to compare 21 year old Al in his second year to 21 year old Sully in his second year, Sully is the better option.

I think those two have comparable trade value.   If you want to look at it without homer vision, Sully's trade value is probably on a par with Terrence Jones right now.

  For the record, while I'm saying that Sully was fairly comparable to Big Al, I was one of the people here that was claiming that Big Al had arguably the best post moves in the game.

[LooseCannon]

Sullinger is good enough to be that coveted young player who is part of a package for a superstar, along with draft picks and filler salary.

His value is high enough that a team that wants him probably won't settle for Olynyk and another first instead.

[sofutomygaha]

Sullinger is good enough to be that coveted young player who is part of a package for a superstar, along with draft picks and filler salary.

His value is high enough that a team that wants him probably won't settle for Olynyk and another first instead.

I actually disagree with that coveted-young-player trade-package-anchor thing, and the reason why is the ceiling. Sullinger can play well in the next two years, but he can't acquire the prototypical size or he can't really ease concerns about his back, lift, and mobility. The package for the superstar you're talking about... usually Love, but maybe you have someone else in mind like Demarcus Cousins or Kyrie Irving... would probably need a sky-is-the-limit guy in the deal, and not necessarily one who is as productive as Sullinger currently is (think players like Antetokoumpo, Beal, Valanciunas, Terrence Jones).

I don't think there is any kind of superstar-for-Sullinger-package deal in our future.

[LooseCannon]

Take a look at the stars who have been traded in the past 10-15 years and tell me how many deals have involved a young player clearly better than Sullinger.

[BballTim]

Sullinger is good enough to be that coveted young player who is part of a package for a superstar, along with draft picks and filler salary.

His value is high enough that a team that wants him probably won't settle for Olynyk and another first instead.

I actually disagree with that coveted-young-player trade-package-anchor thing, and the reason why is the ceiling. Sullinger can play well in the next two years, but he can't acquire the prototypical size or he can't really ease concerns about his back, lift, and mobility. The package for the superstar you're talking about... usually Love, but maybe you have someone else in mind like Demarcus Cousins or Kyrie Irving... would probably need a sky-is-the-limit guy in the deal, and not necessarily one who is as productive as Sullinger currently is (think players like Antetokoumpo, Beal, Valanciunas, Terrence Jones).

I don't think there is any kind of superstar-for-Sullinger-package deal in our future.

  I wouldn't count on that. Sully's numbers are improved enough from last year that he clearly has room to improve. Plus Big Al wasn't a sky-is-the-limit guy, that's pretty typical for trades that net star players.

[sofutomygaha]

Take a look at the stars who have been traded in the past 10-15 years and tell me how many deals have involved a young player clearly better than Sullinger.

I might take you up on your homework assignment later, but we've already mentioned Al Jefferson. The Lakers got young Caron Butler and young Lamar Odom for Shaq; those are both upside players who peaked at a fringe all-star level.

[sofutomygaha]

And don't forget that the Hornets got Eric Gordon back in the Chris Paul trade

[BballTim]

Take a look at the stars who have been traded in the past 10-15 years and tell me how many deals have involved a young player clearly better than Sullinger.

I might take you up on your homework assignment later, but we've already mentioned Al Jefferson. The Lakers got young Caron Butler and young Lamar Odom for Shaq; those are both upside players who peaked at a fringe all-star level.

  You don't have any evidence that Sully will peak at a lower level than they did. I don't see any particular criteria that you're using for "upside players" other than not being Sully.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

None. No one wants him.


Seriously though, he should be a core piece to build with. I don't want him to have trade value. LOL

[Celtics39]

To me Sullinger is untradeable. I want him to be the PF of the Celtics for the next 10 years.

[LooseCannon]

Take a look at the stars who have been traded in the past 10-15 years and tell me how many deals have involved a young player clearly better than Sullinger.

I might take you up on your homework assignment later, but we've already mentioned Al Jefferson. The Lakers got young Caron Butler and young Lamar Odom for Shaq; those are both upside players who peaked at a fringe all-star level.

Keep in mind we're not talking about eventual value, we're talking about perceived value at the time of the trade.  A player who was seen as more valuable but ended up sucking counts against Sullinger, a player who wasn't seen as more valuable than Sullinger but peaked higher than you expected Sullinger to peak doesn't count.

Unless those are the only deals ever made for stars, it seems likely that a decent percentage of such trades involved packages where no player was clearly better than Sullinger.

I'll help you out a bit.  Here are (most if not all of) the players named to the first, second, or third team All-NBA in the past three seasons who have been traded (not including sign-and-trades) at some point in their career after becoming established players (so not Marc Gasol): Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, James Harden, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph

Is a package of Sullinger, a non-ridiculous number of draft picks, and matching salary of equal or greater value to some of the packages used to acquire these some of these players?

[snively]

Remember Big Al averaged 16/11 for the season, but what established him as an elite prospect was the 20/12 on 58TS% he put up after the all-star break.

So Sully would have to sustain his current excellence for the rest of the season to rate as high as Big Al did at the time of the KG trade.  Which isn't out of the question.

[paidthecost2betheboss]

Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, James Harden, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph

Is a package of Sullinger, a non-ridiculous number of draft picks, and matching salary of equal or greater value to some of the packages used to acquire these some of these players?

2 of those guys are together and could get a ring. The others likely not. C Paul is gonna get nothing so he can just enjoy looking at Doc's ring until they trade Griffin for Melo and maybe still not get a ring.

It's about Banners. Danny goes the Pacer way not the Rocket way (Bird, McHale)...the Rockets could maybe get nothing if the Pacers stay healthy and together for a few years.

I wanna be the Pacers. D.A. recently described is ideal model as similar to Pacers not Houston. I'm cool with that.

Keep Sully. Nobody you mentioned has brought a ring and banner home yet...just like Sully

[lon3lytoaster]

Remember Big Al averaged 16/11 for the season, but what established him as an elite prospect was the 20/12 on 58TS% he put up after the all-star break.

So Sully would have to sustain his current excellence for the rest of the season to rate as high as Big Al did at the time of the KG trade.  Which isn't out of the question.

Not too out of the question at all. We've really, really taken the time to get Sully looks over the last 4, with the kings game being the most obvious example. He's responded beautifully. Whatever Papa Sully said resonated.