What is Sullinger's realistic trade value?

[KGs Knee]

Is his value greater or less than al
Jefferson's at the time of the kg trade?  Big Al was 22 and coming off a 16/11 season -- his third year. Sully is 21 in his second year -- 14/8 and climbing.  Injury perceptions may have some influence but generally the two are similar in value at this point in their respective careers -- Al slightly higher.

Big Al probably had more value at the time.

-Prototypical size for his position (Sully is undersized)

-Younger  (Big Al was only 21 at the end of his 3rd year, Sully will be 22 at the end of his 2nd season)

-No health concerns

[slamtheking]

Hi SPD-

  It looks like no one so far as actually taken your question at face value, and I think it's an interesting one. I'll give it a shot.

  Sullinger is in year two of a rookie contract. His health concerns are not gone, but things are looking better. They won't really go away until he has played a couple healthy seasons and significantly improved his body. His level of play right now suggests solid starter with the potential to be a fringe all-star if everything goes right.

  It does depend who you are trading with, of course. Bad teams would rather have picks. Good teams would rather have players. Capped teams don't want contracts. Etc

  This is guesswork, but I'd that's worth a top-5 protected 1st rounder or an above average mid-career starter who is cost controlled for a few years. Here's a completely imaginary tier of assets that I'd put Sullinger in with:

(1) a draft pick in the 6-10 range

or

(2) a very good sub-all-star veteran who is fairly paid or slightly overpaid and not a 7-foot center (Paul Millsap, Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith, Zach Randolph)

or

(3) a very good rookie deal player who probably does not look to have all-star in his future, and is not a 7-foot center. Basically a player like him (Kemba Walker, Kahwi Leonard, Harrison Barnes, Terrence Ross)

  Don't ask me if I think the owners of these assets would do one-for-one swaps, because it's also a matter of style, cap situation, and outlook

depending on who's available this year between 6-10, I might agree but it would have to be a draft as stacked as this one.

I disagree with #2 -- take Sully who's producing at their level for much less money.

Disagree with #3 too  -- Sully's at a level those guys hope to reach and Sully continues to improve

[Cman]

Is his value greater or less than al
Jefferson's at the time of the kg trade?  Big Al was 22 and coming off a 16/11 season -- his third year. Sully is 21 in his second year -- 14/8 and climbing.  Injury perceptions may have some influence but generally the two are similar in value at this point in their respective careers -- Al slightly higher.

Big Al probably had more value at the time.

-Prototypical size for his position (Sully is undersized)

-Younger  (Big Al was only 21 at the end of his 3rd year, Sully will be 22 at the end of his 2nd season)

-No health concerns

You're way off on the last one. Big Al had pretty serious health concerns with his knees and ankles. "Ankles made of glass" was a phrase I remember reading/hearing a lot of back in 05 or 06.

[clover]

Is his value greater or less than al
Jefferson's at the time of the kg trade?  Big Al was 22 and coming off a 16/11 season -- his third year. Sully is 21 in his second year -- 14/8 and climbing.  Injury perceptions may have some influence but generally the two are similar in value at this point in their respective careers -- Al slightly higher.

Big Al probably had more value at the time.

-Prototypical size for his position (Sully is undersized)

-Younger  (Big Al was only 21 at the end of his 3rd year, Sully will be 22 at the end of his 2nd season)

-No health concerns

Yep, it's easy to forget that AlJeff had had decent defensive ratings with the C's(104, 103, 103), pretty much equal rebounding and better offensive numbers. As well, he's a tad taller, though less so than he seems.

[Celtics4ever]

 I was thinking Big Al as well when I watched the game last night.   Both have nice nifty post moves neither is or was a good defender.

[BballTim]

Is his value greater or less than al
Jefferson's at the time of the kg trade?  Big Al was 22 and coming off a 16/11 season -- his third year. Sully is 21 in his second year -- 14/8 and climbing.  Injury perceptions may have some influence but generally the two are similar in value at this point in their respective careers -- Al slightly higher.

Big Al probably had more value at the time.

-Prototypical size for his position (Sully is undersized)

-Younger  (Big Al was only 21 at the end of his 3rd year, Sully will be 22 at the end of his 2nd season)

-No health concerns

  Al was an inch taller than Sully is, a he was a little older than Sully, not younger. In terms of development, Sully's played about as many minutes right now that Al did in his first two years, so when we traded him he had about a full season's more experience than Sully does now. They're both talented players. Al had a very good low post game. Sully can score in a wider variety of ways and is the better passer and defender. The advantage to Al is Sully's back, but if Sully puts in another solid (and healthy) season his value could be at least as high as Al's.

[KGs Knee]

Is his value greater or less than al
Jefferson's at the time of the kg trade?  Big Al was 22 and coming off a 16/11 season -- his third year. Sully is 21 in his second year -- 14/8 and climbing.  Injury perceptions may have some influence but generally the two are similar in value at this point in their respective careers -- Al slightly higher.

Big Al probably had more value at the time.

-Prototypical size for his position (Sully is undersized)

-Younger  (Big Al was only 21 at the end of his 3rd year, Sully will be 22 at the end of his 2nd season)

-No health concerns

  Al was an inch taller than Sully is, a he was a little older than Sully, not younger.

Well, I was slightly off in terms of just how much youngr Jefferson was, but he was in fact younger.


Jared Sullinger was born on March 4, 1992.  He is currently 21 years old and will be 22 years old by the end of this season (2014), his 2nd.

Al Jefferson was born on January 4, 1985.  At the time of the end of his 2nd season (2006) Jefferson was 21 years old.  Jefferson was a full 10 months younger.

Jefferson is listed as being an inch taller, who knows for certain though.  Those numbers tend to be misrepresented often.

[BballTim]

Is his value greater or less than al
Jefferson's at the time of the kg trade?  Big Al was 22 and coming off a 16/11 season -- his third year. Sully is 21 in his second year -- 14/8 and climbing.  Injury perceptions may have some influence but generally the two are similar in value at this point in their respective careers -- Al slightly higher.

Big Al probably had more value at the time.

-Prototypical size for his position (Sully is undersized)

-Younger  (Big Al was only 21 at the end of his 3rd year, Sully will be 22 at the end of his 2nd season)

-No health concerns

  Al was an inch taller than Sully is, a he was a little older than Sully, not younger.

Well, I was slightly off in terms of just how much youngr Jefferson was, but he was in fact younger.


Jared Sullinger was born on March 4, 1992.  He is currently 21 years old and will be 22 years old by the end of this season (2014), his 2nd.

Al Jefferson was born on January 4, 1985.  At the time of the end of his 2nd season (2006) Jefferson was 21 years old.  Jefferson was a full 10 months younger.

Jefferson is listed as being an inch taller, who knows for certain though.  Those numbers tend to be misrepresented often.

  We're talking about Al's 3rd season, which he was traded after. Al was the older and more experienced player.

[KGs Knee]

Is his value greater or less than al
Jefferson's at the time of the kg trade?  Big Al was 22 and coming off a 16/11 season -- his third year. Sully is 21 in his second year -- 14/8 and climbing.  Injury perceptions may have some influence but generally the two are similar in value at this point in their respective careers -- Al slightly higher.

Big Al probably had more value at the time.

-Prototypical size for his position (Sully is undersized)

-Younger  (Big Al was only 21 at the end of his 3rd year, Sully will be 22 at the end of his 2nd season)

-No health concerns

  Al was an inch taller than Sully is, a he was a little older than Sully, not younger.

Well, I was slightly off in terms of just how much youngr Jefferson was, but he was in fact younger.


Jared Sullinger was born on March 4, 1992.  He is currently 21 years old and will be 22 years old by the end of this season (2014), his 2nd.

Al Jefferson was born on January 4, 1985.  At the time of the end of his 2nd season (2006) Jefferson was 21 years old.  Jefferson was a full 10 months younger.

Jefferson is listed as being an inch taller, who knows for certain though.  Those numbers tend to be misrepresented often.

  We're talking about Al's 3rd season, which he was traded after. Al was the older and more experienced player.

So were comparing Al's 3rd season and Sully's 2nd?

That doesn't seem like a fair comparison.  Of course AL was more valuable.  Look at the difference in on-court performance.

I'm also not sure what the relevance to Sully being younger in that situation would be.  By the time Sully comes up for his next contract, he'll be older than Al.

[BballTim]

Is his value greater or less than al
Jefferson's at the time of the kg trade?  Big Al was 22 and coming off a 16/11 season -- his third year. Sully is 21 in his second year -- 14/8 and climbing.  Injury perceptions may have some influence but generally the two are similar in value at this point in their respective careers -- Al slightly higher.

Big Al probably had more value at the time.

-Prototypical size for his position (Sully is undersized)

-Younger  (Big Al was only 21 at the end of his 3rd year, Sully will be 22 at the end of his 2nd season)

-No health concerns

  Al was an inch taller than Sully is, a he was a little older than Sully, not younger.

Well, I was slightly off in terms of just how much youngr Jefferson was, but he was in fact younger.


Jared Sullinger was born on March 4, 1992.  He is currently 21 years old and will be 22 years old by the end of this season (2014), his 2nd.

Al Jefferson was born on January 4, 1985.  At the time of the end of his 2nd season (2006) Jefferson was 21 years old.  Jefferson was a full 10 months younger.

Jefferson is listed as being an inch taller, who knows for certain though.  Those numbers tend to be misrepresented often.

  We're talking about Al's 3rd season, which he was traded after. Al was the older and more experienced player.

So were comparing Al's 3rd season and Sully's 2nd?

That doesn't seem like a fair comparison.  Of course AL was more valuable.  Look at the difference in on-court performance.

I'm also not sure what the relevance to Sully being younger in that situation would be.  By the time Sully comes up for his next contract, he'll be older than Al.

  Read your own post, you're the one that said 3rd year. I'd guess it's because that's when the trade happened. I don't think Al's trade value before that 3rd year was close to as high as it was after.

[cb8883]

I would be stunned if the Celtics could get a lotto pick in this years draft for him. If you could get a top 10 pick in the best draft in over a decade you trade Sully or Rondo no question asked.

[Celtics18]

I would be stunned if the Celtics could get a lotto pick in this years draft for him. If you could get a top 10 pick in the best draft in over a decade you trade Sully or Rondo no question asked.

You'd trade Rondo for any top ten pick?  Has there ever been a draft with ten players better than Rajon Rondo?  Never mind ten, has there ever been a draft with more than five players better than Rondo?

[BleedGreen1989]

I would be stunned if the Celtics could get a lotto pick in this years draft for him. If you could get a top 10 pick in the best draft in over a decade you trade Sully or Rondo no question asked.

You'd trade Rondo for any top ten pick?  Has there ever been a draft with ten players better than Rajon Rondo?  Never mind ten, has there ever been a draft with more than five players better than Rondo?

Yeah, judging from CB's other posts this isn't surprising at all.

[BballTim]

I would be stunned if the Celtics could get a lotto pick in this years draft for him. If you could get a top 10 pick in the best draft in over a decade you trade Sully or Rondo no question asked.

  I think that's because you don't have a reasonable expectation for what "best draft in over a decade" means. Again, we could look at the "best in a decade" 2003 draft, the one with LeBron/Wade/Bosh/Melo. Aside from the Darko disaster, picks 6-10 were Hinrich, TJ Ford, Chris Kaman, Jarvis Hayes and the immortal Micheal Sweetney.

  Would you be shocked if a team traded a chance to get one of those players for a 21 year old like Sully or a top pg like Rondo? Do you think those teams were dancing with joy because they had top 10 picks in the best draft in a decade and weren't going to have to be treadmill teams any more?

[Smokeeye123]

Sullinger is the only guy I wouldnt trade on the entire team. I honestly wish that he could be our PF for the next decade. Guy is an animal and is going to turn into a 20/10 a night player.