Tommy on Olynyk

[tarheelsxxiii]

He has to stop commenting Olynyk will be a great player in the league. It isn't fair to fans nor Kelly. Guys at the local YMCA have high bball IQ as well. Think great careers in the NBA require a bit more than that (i.e., not being a stiff, physically incompetent defender at his position).

[clover]

He has to stop commenting Olynyk will be a great player in the league. It isn't fair to fans nor Kelly. Guys at the local YMCA have high bball IQ as well. Think great careers in the NBA require a bit more than that (i.e., not being a stiff, physically incompetent defender at his position).

KO is taking some time to get the swing of things in the NBA, but he's not a 'stiff'--whatever that means other than "bad, tall, white player without athleticism". He gets up and down the floor with the best of them and actually did quite well on things such as agility skills at the draft. He's already one of the better players in his draft class. And I think you're out to lunch impugning his BBIQ.

Tommy knows basketball at the NBA level, including the talent and skills that can't be taught, as well as the physical improvements that come with age and training.

Among qualified rookies, KO is

-8th in points
-7th in rebounds per 48
-5th in FG%
-5th in FT%
-11th in Assts and 13th in Assts/48--as a center!
-9th in blocks/48
-16th (below his draft position) in TOs/48
-2nd in fls/48 (such is a rook's freshman campaign: Bennett's the only non-big man among the   top 7, at least KO's getting his induction out of the way this year )

KO also has a decent 105 defensive rating for a rookie big man. In the first half of his rookie year, his per 36 stats are 13.1 points, 8.5 boards and 3.0 assists; but anyone who has followed his career knows that he can play better--and should expect that he will.

7-footers famously take longer to mature physically, to adjust to the NBA competition, and in terms of their game than smaller players. KO is a rare 7-footer in that he has a complete game that he is conscientiously trying to execute while taking in all there is to learn about playing at the NBA level. He also, of course, was late moving to the frontcourt positions, so he's still adapting his game there as well.

Jeesh!

[PhoSita]

I don't think Kelly is affected that much by what Tommy says.  As for fans, I think after Greg "Instincts like Russell" Stiemsma we should all know not to put too much into what Tommy says.

[moiso]

I don't think Kelly is affected that much by what Tommy says.  As for fans, I think after Greg "Instincts like Russell" Stiemsma we should all know not to put too much into what Tommy says.

And "future allstar" Milt Palacio.

[Celtics4ever]

Red like Forte too and drafted Michael Smith too.   Everyone gets them wrong once in a while.

Oly could be an improved version of Michael Smith.

Among qualified rookies, KO is

That is like saying among toddlers.  That BPG of 0.5 is really 9th among rooks, wow.   I take back all the things I have said about him.  6.6 PPG means he is heading to Cooperstown.   All among rookies is a clever way to frame it so he doesn't look a disaster.   It is still not good by any means.   This last draft looks to be a weak one one year out.

his per 36 stats are 13.1 points, 8.5 boards and 3.0 assists;

PER 36 is a silly stat considering it is nothing more than a projection of their potential and not an actual stat produced by a player.   He plays half of that in reality with 18.1 MPG.  In that time he averages 3.1 PF. 

[The One]

Tommy is like the drunk uncle that shows up at family reunions...don't pay him any attention.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

Tommy is like the drunk uncle that shows up at family reunions...don't pay him any attention.

exactly he knows nothing. never did. never will. 

[slamtheking]

Tommy exagerates everyone's skills on the team.  just have to take it with a grain of salt.

KO has shown he's not useless.  Plays hard, has great hands where he can catch passes and finish around the basket (the last young big man we had that could do that was Big Al and even he wasn't as good as KO in that regard), he's a very good passer with pretty good court awareness. 
the one thing I expected him to be better at was shooting.  I wasn't thrilled with Danny picking him in the draft at the time (much less trading to move up to get him) but I'm coming around to think he could pan out into a solid big off the bench as early as next year

[BballTim]

Red like Forte too and drafted Michael Smith too.   Everyone gets them wrong once in a while.

Oly could be an improved version of Michael Smith.

Among qualified rookies, KO is

That is like saying among toddlers.  That BPG of 0.5 is really 9th among rooks, wow.   I take back all the things I have said about him.  6.6 PPG means he is heading to Cooperstown.   All among rookies is a clever way to frame it so he doesn't look a disaster.   It is still not good by any means.   This last draft looks to be a weak one one year out.

his per 36 stats are 13.1 points, 8.5 boards and 3.0 assists;

PER 36 is a silly stat considering it is nothing more than a projection of their potential and not an actual stat produced by a player.   He plays half of that in reality with 18.1 MPG.  In that time he averages 3.1 PF.

  Per36 isn't a projection of potential, it's an actual stat produced by a player. It simply normalizes minutes for (fairly) apples to apples comparisons, to avoid claims that someone who gets 15ppg in 35 minutes a game scores a lot more than someone  who gets 11 ppg in 15 minutes a game. It's per minute production. Nothing more, nothing less.

[GreenWarrior]

tommy does tend to try to sell players a bit too much. but i'll take his analysis over 90% of the other people who try to give theirs.

also, can't believe we're still harping on olynyk. 7 footers are notorious for adapting slowly to the speed of the nba. which makes it almost impossible to judge them in their 1st yr, or at least until their bodies mature.

not sure why everyone's so quick to give this guy a final grade less than 3 qrtrs into his career?

[Roy H.]

Red like Forte too and drafted Michael Smith too.   Everyone gets them wrong once in a while.

Oly could be an improved version of Michael Smith.

Among qualified rookies, KO is

That is like saying among toddlers.  That BPG of 0.5 is really 9th among rooks, wow.   I take back all the things I have said about him.  6.6 PPG means he is heading to Cooperstown.   All among rookies is a clever way to frame it so he doesn't look a disaster.   It is still not good by any means.   This last draft looks to be a weak one one year out.

his per 36 stats are 13.1 points, 8.5 boards and 3.0 assists;

PER 36 is a silly stat considering it is nothing more than a projection of their potential and not an actual stat produced by a player.   He plays half of that in reality with 18.1 MPG.  In that time he averages 3.1 PF.

  Per36 isn't a projection of potential, it's an actual stat produced by a player. It simply normalizes minutes for (fairly) apples to apples comparisons, to avoid claims that someone who gets 15ppg in 35 minutes a game scores a lot more than someone  who gets 11 ppg in 15 minutes a game. It's per minute production. Nothing more, nothing less.

Yes and no.  It allows normalization for comparisons, as you suggest.  It's still a projection, though, and a faulty one.  It suggestions that someone who performs at a certain level at 18 minutes would perform at the exact same level over 36 minutes; the production would exactly double, in a linear fashion.

For a lot of players, that's simply not true, whether it be due to quality of competition, a player's conditioning, his foul rate, etc., etc.

[fairweatherfan]

Tommy gushing over a young Celtic is like women telling each other how beautiful they are every time they change their profile pictures; it's only meaningful when it doesn't happen.

[D.o.s.]

Tommy's great. Drunk uncle comparison is apt. "This guy is gonna be a star. Get up the court. Run more!"

Among qualified rookies, KO is

-8th in points
-7th in rebounds per 48
-5th in FG%
-5th in FT%
-11th in Assts and 13th in Assts/48--as a center!
-9th in blocks/48
-16th (below his draft position) in TOs/48
-2nd in fls/48 (such is a rook's freshman campaign: Bennett's the only non-big man among the   top 7, at least KO's getting his induction out of the way this year )

This is your weekly reminder that this draft class was considered widely devoid of talent.

Anyway, I hope KO becomes a good player. But, you know, he's the highest pick we've had in ages, and I don't know that I'd pick him first in a pool of C's first rounders.

[Fafnir]

For a lot of players, that's simply not true, whether it be due to quality of competition, a player's conditioning, his foul rate, etc., etc.

For the vast majority of players it is true though, especially offensively and on the boards.

The real area players get lazy or tenative is on D. Another thing that happens is that some players go away from their usage profile once they get bigger minutes. (aka I'm a starter now I can chuck it right?)

[fairweatherfan]

  Per36 isn't a projection of potential, it's an actual stat produced by a player. It simply normalizes minutes for (fairly) apples to apples comparisons, to avoid claims that someone who gets 15ppg in 35 minutes a game scores a lot more than someone  who gets 11 ppg in 15 minutes a game. It's per minute production. Nothing more, nothing less.

Yes and no.  It allows normalization for comparisons, as you suggest.  It's still a projection, though, and a faulty one.  It suggestions that someone who performs at a certain level at 18 minutes would perform at the exact same level over 36 minutes; the production would exactly double, in a linear fashion.

It doesn't suggest that, it's just frequently misinterpreted that way.  It measures exactly what it purports to measure.  Blithely extrapolating is an end-user issue. 

Tim's also right that it's not a projection, it's actual production for every 36 minutes the player was on the court.  The projection part is when we apply it to playing 36 minutes per game.

It is important to mostly steer clear of that kind of projection, although as Faf mentions it really only breaks down in a few areas, or when the player is getting extremely low minutes or is unusually poorly conditioned.