11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today

[Yoki_IsTheName]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM

I'd be fine with the number 2 or 3 to be quite honest.

[Beat LA]

My biggest worry is that the Lakers keep tanking, and end up with the No. 1 pick.  That would just suck.

Which is precisely why it's likely that they somehow end up in the top 3.  That will be Stern's final gift to LA.  The first few times I played the lottery machine, we were at 5, 7, and 8, while the Lakers somehow kept getting in the top 3 at 1 and 2 (although we just got the 1st after I tried it again.  Typical    We have to be realistic, though.  The most likely spot we get is #5 - tantalizingly close, but oh so far away, like in 2007.  Who do we take there?  Any suggestions?  Probably just bpa, but I was thinking more along the lines of specific players.  I'm behind in my draft research this year 

[lon3lytoaster]

My biggest worry is that the Lakers keep tanking, and end up with the No. 1 pick.  That would just suck.

Which is precisely why it's likely that they somehow end up in the top 3.  That will be Stern's final gift to LA.  The first few times I played the lottery machine, we were at 5, 7, and 8, while the Lakers somehow kept getting in the top 3 at 1 and 2 (although we just got the 1st after I tried it again.  Typical    We have to be realistic, though.  The most likely spot we get is #5 - tantalizingly close, but oh so far away, like in 2007.  Who do we take there?  Any suggestions?  Probably just bpa, but I was thinking more along the lines of specific players.  I'm behind in my draft research this year 

I don't think Stern controls ESPN's mock lottery...

And he'll be out in February, regardless. Way before the real lottery. The Celtics AND Lakers getting the top two picks would be huge for the NBA, though. People still love them some Celtics/Lakers. Make it happen, Silver!

[obnoxiousmime]

Well, Kobe is still hell-bent on returning this season so we'll see regarding the Lakers. They are really atrocious right now...

[SHAQATTACK]

We need to out tank LA.

I think we have the personnel to get her done 


We are built to flop.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM

I'd be fine with the number 2 or 3 to be quite honest.

 

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

We need to out tank LA.

I think we have the personnel to get her done 


We are built to flop.

no reason the lakers, sixers, or jazz finish worse than us. The only team that should finish worse than us is the bucks.

[LilRip]

what're the odds of us landing any one of the top 3 picks if we have the 5th worst record in the league? how about the 4th worst? or 3rd worst?

No one is "catching" the Bucks or the Magic in terms of lottery odds, but it's feasible that Philly and/or Utah begins to win more.

Fifth worst=29.2% chance at a top three pick.

Fourth worst=37.8%.

Third worst=46.9%.

thanks. TP for this.

TBH, with how this draft class is shaping up, it might not be too important as to who gets the 1st overall pick, but more of who lands in the top 3. Either Embiid, Wiggins or Parker will be there.

3rd worst record in the league lands us almost a 50% chance? sounds like pretty good odds. With the current team structure plus more 'destructive' trades potentially happening in the coming weeks, it's not a longshot.

[Boris Badenov]

if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.

Let me guess, about once every ten times

MATH'D!!!

Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.

Hmmm, that doesn't fit my half-baked intuitions about probability, so that sounds an awful lot like a conspiracy to me.  If we won a practice draw on top of that I'm pretty sure we could sue.

Yeah that doesn't sound right.  I'm sure there is a nifty Venn diagram somewhere that could solve this.

It's right.

Our percentage chances of 1/2/3/4 with the worst record would be 25%/22%/18%/36% .

The last number is highest because of the restriction that we must have a top 4 pick. So instead of having successively declining chances  at 4,5,6...etc. you can think of the 4th slot as the total of "what's left over after the first three."

[KGs Knee]

if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.

Let me guess, about once every ten times

MATH'D!!!

Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.

Hmmm, that doesn't fit my half-baked intuitions about probability, so that sounds an awful lot like a conspiracy to me.  If we won a practice draw on top of that I'm pretty sure we could sue.

Yeah that doesn't sound right.  I'm sure there is a nifty Venn diagram somewhere that could solve this.

It's right.

Our percentage chances of 1/2/3/4 with the worst record would be 25%/22%/18%/36% .

The last number is highest because of the restriction that we must have a top 4 pick. So instead of having successively declining chances  at 4,5,6...etc. you can think of the 4th slot as the total of "what's left over after the first three."

Ahh...I see

The NBA....where stupid happens

[lightspeed5]

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft

11.9% chance of winning.

[manl_lui]

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft

11.9% chance of winning.

I played it like 10 times - 5/10 has us at 3 picking Parker, 3/10 has us at 2 - picking Parker and 2/10 has us at 1 picking Parker...

You know what that means 

[letsgoblue86]

Im hoping for the second pick, assuming the Big Three all leave (Embiid, Wiggins, Parker). We would have an easier decision to make than the number 1.

[lightspeed5]

Im hoping for the second pick, assuming the Big Three all leave (Embiid, Wiggins, Parker). We would have an easier decision to make than the number 1.

after drafting rondo, i trust danny's ability to judge talent

[hpantazo]

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft

11.9% chance of winning.

I played it like 10 times - 5/10 has us at 3 picking Parker, 3/10 has us at 2 - picking Parker and 2/10 has us at 1 picking Parker...

You know what that means 

almost every time I ran it, the celtics were picking Exum at 5.