Unappealing (hence undervalued) Trade Targets Discussion

[Fan from VT]

Who to go after?


I wanted to start a thread about this a while back when someone proposed going after Arron Afflalo. While I actually like Afflalo, I disagree about targeting him due to circumstances and timing. Too often fans see a player on another team having a good season, notice him because of the good season, then want him. However, that is exactly not the time to go after them, because their value is the highest and their production is generally above their norms. This then leads to an asset overpay, often combined with a small production regression, which combine to make it a bad deal for the team acquiring the player. Rather, the time to get Afflalo was the first year of his new contract. He agreed to an extension in December '11 for 5 years. First year of the contract (the '11-'12 season) his PER dropped to 13 from 14.76 the season he was offered the deal. He then looked poised to underperform the deal. So that offseason (2013, this past one) (4 seasons left on an "overpaid deal" for an "underperformer") would have been the time to offer a trade for him if you trusted your scouting.

I think there are several player types who can become underrated. Off the top of my head:

1. Slow starting rookies buried in bad situations  (then often bounced around)
Historical: Jermaine O'neal, Chauncy Billups
Possible: Derrick Williams, Thomas Robinson, Kanter?, MKG?

2. "Old" vets on bad teams. These guys are "over the hill" and "ready to decline" so they are unappealing to teams trying to build for the next 10 years. Easier to get because no one wants to start a max contract on a 30+ year old player. However, careers are becoming longer, max contracts shorter, and circumstances of teams change quickly, so you can sometimes contend a lot sooner than many pundits project.
Historical: KG, Ray Allen, Pau Gasol
Possible: Carmelo, Pau again, Zach Randolph

3. Good (but often non-max or at least non-consensus all-nba) rookies on the first year of their new deal. Often, players look great for 3 million, get signed for 10, have a regression and look scarily overpaid. Sometimes they are, sometimes it's perception (players are wildly underpaid as rookies and often somewhat overpaid as vets, but that is an inherent design of the system), and sometimes it's a combo of perception, unrealistic expecations for the signing team, and a small, possibly temporary regression. Try to target these guys when their current team is scared with how much money is left on the deal and they are disillusioned with the player. Often these players are NOT moved, but their first "overpaid" year represents a missed opportunity for the league to get a player with relatively few assets as their team has "buyer's remorse." These players are often not moved because the offering teams are also scared by the new contract plus player's down year maybe being a trend and not a blip, so they don't take the chance.
Historical: Afflalo (missed opportunity), Hibbert (missed opportunity; given big deal then "underperformed" for a year before becoming defensively dominant and anchoring a great team), Mike Conley (missed opportunity)
Possible/Future possible: Cousins, Holliday, Eric Gordon, Larry Sanders, Derrick Favors. Greg Monroe next year?

4. Career "losers." Media story lines have power, and writers are lazy so re-hashing is easy and common. So a player gets in trouble a few times as a 22 year old, puts up great numbers but plays for losing teams, so he's a "loser." Carries that label despite basketball being a genuine team game and teammates being out of any one player's control. Sometimes, you have to bust past that and try to "rehab" a "loser" (with a good coach and good teammates), when it then becomes clear this is a good player who just needs teammates (like literally every player) to have team success.
Historical: Zach Randolph pre GNG grizzlies; Odom pre swiss-army-knife Lakers role
Possible/Future possilbe: Carmelo (learning bad habits as he has to be the creator on NY; see his Olympic play as evidence of a great player when he has competent teammates), Josh Smith, Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Maybe down the line John Wall, Greg Monroe.

See, you're scared to trade for any of these guys, right?

But remember, we got Ray Allen and KG because there was a suppressed market for those guys because they represented a "win now" "all-in" type of thing with generally expected 2-3 year window. We competed for 5 years, and they were a great 5 years; that's nothing to sneeze at, with 1 title.


I would love peoples' thoughts on
a. the above targets and categories
b. additional categories
c. additional targets of new or above categories (with historical and potential current/future examples!)

[bballee]

Love the concept of this topic.  Miles above the standard complaint/apple-pie-in-the-sky offerings.  An underlying theme is timing.  I agree that most of the blogger hype is generated about players on the wrong end of the "curve"--after a surge (whether temporary or permanent) in performance has generated an overpay situation, which is kind of a definition of a bad target.  The key is identifying breakout potential before the fact and acquiring and tying it up at a reasonable price and contract length.

This really requires watching a lot of non-Celtic basketball and is beyond my patience/time-investment parameters.  I do applaud the thread even though I have few player suggestions to offer.  I will follow this discussion avidly.

Finally this goes a long way toward explaining why I look across the league and find so few players that I am eager for Danny to try to acquire.  This cost/benefit formula, combined with the ME/team or ego centric vs. Celtic-Way attitudes leaves me wrinkling my nose in distaste as I evaluate most of the NBA players. 

Eagerly look forward to additional comments.

[PhoSita]

Mason Plumlee, Bismack Biyombo, and Perry Jones are three young, bigger guys who come to mind.  They're currently buried and haven't yet gotten the chance to really shine, but they've been productive when they have played.

Look no further than Mason's brother, Miles, for an example of how a player like this can turn out to be a solid starter when given a chance in the right situation.

Jeremy Evans isn't young, but he's still a relatively unproven player in this league.  He's been fantastically productive so far in his career, but he doesn't have a clearly defined role.  He's a Kenneth Faried kind of player in a SF's body.  It'd be interesting to see him playing next to Rondo, Bradley, Sullinger, and KO.



As far as older guys, Danny Granger is a player that comes to mind.  He could give us better value than Green for the next 3-4 years.  He's an expiring contract, and he could probably be re-signed for relatively cheap.  I wonder if the Celtics could interest Indiana in a trade of Green + Bogans for Granger + other assets.

James Johnson is another wing player I've always liked.  Not so much a trade target, but he will be a free agent this off-season.  He's a jack of all trades kind of guy with good size but unremarkable athleticism.  I think he's a useful role player who wouldn't cost much money.  If the Celtics somehow unload Wallace or trade Green for other pieces, he's a guy I'd be interested in adding.

[LooseCannon]

One possible target is an injury-prone player who would be worth his contract if healthy, but who misses enough games to have his current team wanting to move him.  You have to be better than the other team at assessing risk and determining if there are other factors which make you think the player will be healthier than expected in the future.  For example, some people were skeptical about Ray Allen coming to Boston because of ankle issues.

[PhoSita]

One possible target is an injury-prone player who would be worth his contract if healthy, but who misses enough games to have his current team wanting to move him.  You have to be better than the other team at assessing risk and determining if there are other factors which make you think the player will be healthier than expected in the future.  For example, some people were skeptical about Ray Allen coming to Boston because of ankle issues.

I wonder if the Bulls would consider moving Noah if a really future-loaded package came along.  By the time Rose is healthy and the rest of the players on the team are ready to really compete, Noah will be close to 30.

Noah might be able to stay healthy if he weren't played such heavy minutes and given such a load to carry so often.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Carlos Boozer.

At best, he's a 17/8/50% inside presence. At worst, he's a $16 million expiring next year.

Bulls are going to amnesty him (according to rumors atleast), let's give them expiring deals.

[PhoSita]

Carlos Boozer.

At best, he's a 17/8/50% inside presence. At worst, he's a $16 million expiring next year.

Bulls are going to amnesty him (according to rumors atleast), let's give them expiring deals.

Trouble is, Boozer's role is effectively the same as Sullinger.  Doesn't really make sense to have both of them.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Carlos Boozer.

At best, he's a 17/8/50% inside presence. At worst, he's a $16 million expiring next year.

Bulls are going to amnesty him (according to rumors atleast), let's give them expiring deals.

Trouble is, Boozer's role is effectively the same as Sullinger.  Doesn't really make sense to have both of them.

That is actually right. Completely looked over that.

So, I guess I'm back to Greg Monore. 

[European NBA fan]

Kevin Love might fall in category 4, if the T'Wolves fail another playoff run or two.

[RJ87]

Great topic.

I'd have to say Eric Gordon. I know, I know - he's overpaid. He's a guy that can really score the basketball, he's taken a step back but he's starting to show flashes of what he was pre-trade. I don't know if NO thinks of Aminu as their 3 of the future, but I'd see if they were interested in Jeff.

[Smitty77]

Mason Plumlee, Bismack Biyombo, and Perry Jones are three young, bigger guys who come to mind.  They're currently buried and haven't yet gotten the chance to really shine, but they've been productive when they have played.

Look no further than Mason's brother, Miles, for an example of how a player like this can turn out to be a solid starter when given a chance in the right situation.

Jeremy Evans isn't young, but he's still a relatively unproven player in this league.  He's been fantastically productive so far in his career, but he doesn't have a clearly defined role.  He's a Kenneth Faried kind of player in a SF's body.  It'd be interesting to see him playing next to Rondo, Bradley, Sullinger, and KO.



As far as older guys, Danny Granger is a player that comes to mind.  He could give us better value than Green for the next 3-4 years.  He's an expiring contract, and he could probably be re-signed for relatively cheap.  I wonder if the Celtics could interest Indiana in a trade of Green + Bogans for Granger + other assets.

James Johnson is another wing player I've always liked.  Not so much a trade target, but he will be a free agent this off-season.  He's a jack of all trades kind of guy with good size but unremarkable athleticism.  I think he's a useful role player who wouldn't cost much money.  If the Celtics somehow unload Wallace or trade Green for other pieces, he's a guy I'd be interested in adding.

I like your outside of the box thinking on the Green and Bogans for Granger!!!  We would probably have to include a second rounder or some sweetener though.

Smitty77

[Who]

Shumpert is a good one. Having a dodgy season. Value seems to dropping. Very talented young role player with some small upside to become more than a role player.

I really like Ezeli in Golden State. Not quite as talented as Asik or Gortat was but Ezeli, for my money, is the best backup center in the league and will prove to be a solid starting caliber center (borderline top 20). His defensive range and toughness being the standout skills.

I thought Larry Sanders was a good name from the OP. Good talent. Just got a big contract. Things going wrong for him in a major way in Milwaukee. Management dissatisfied with him. He could be (or soon become) available at a low asking price. Very good reclamation project for whoever gets him.

[Dog_Lover106]

Mason Plumlee, Bismack Biyombo, and Perry Jones are three young, bigger guys who come to mind.  They're currently buried and haven't yet gotten the chance to really shine, but they've been productive when they have played.

Look no further than Mason's brother, Miles, for an example of how a player like this can turn out to be a solid starter when given a chance in the right situation.

Jeremy Evans isn't young, but he's still a relatively unproven player in this league.  He's been fantastically productive so far in his career, but he doesn't have a clearly defined role.  He's a Kenneth Faried kind of player in a SF's body.  It'd be interesting to see him playing next to Rondo, Bradley, Sullinger, and KO.



As far as older guys, Danny Granger is a player that comes to mind.  He could give us better value than Green for the next 3-4 years.  He's an expiring contract, and he could probably be re-signed for relatively cheap.  I wonder if the Celtics could interest Indiana in a trade of Green + Bogans for Granger + other assets.

James Johnson is another wing player I've always liked.  Not so much a trade target, but he will be a free agent this off-season.  He's a jack of all trades kind of guy with good size but unremarkable athleticism.  I think he's a useful role player who wouldn't cost much money.  If the Celtics somehow unload Wallace or trade Green for other pieces, he's a guy I'd be interested in adding.

I doubt the Pacers would take on any salary for Granger, especially Jeff Green. Paul George's big deal kicks in and they also want to keep Stephenson. They will be right up against the luxury tax even with the $14 million Granger deal expiring. Taking on Green would leave them no money for signing Stephenson, unless I am missing something? 

[Dog_Lover106]

Who to go after?


I wanted to start a thread about this a while back when someone proposed going after Arron Afflalo. While I actually like Afflalo, I disagree about targeting him due to circumstances and timing. Too often fans see a player on another team having a good season, notice him because of the good season, then want him. However, that is exactly not the time to go after them, because their value is the highest and their production is generally above their norms. This then leads to an asset overpay, often combined with a small production regression, which combine to make it a bad deal for the team acquiring the player. Rather, the time to get Afflalo was the first year of his new contract. He agreed to an extension in December '11 for 5 years. First year of the contract (the '11-'12 season) his PER dropped to 13 from 14.76 the season he was offered the deal. He then looked poised to underperform the deal. So that offseason (2013, this past one) (4 seasons left on an "overpaid deal" for an "underperformer") would have been the time to offer a trade for him if you trusted your scouting.

I think there are several player types who can become underrated. Off the top of my head:

1. Slow starting rookies buried in bad situations  (then often bounced around)
Historical: Jermaine O'neal, Chauncy Billups
Possible: Derrick Williams, Thomas Robinson, Kanter?, MKG?

2. "Old" vets on bad teams. These guys are "over the hill" and "ready to decline" so they are unappealing to teams trying to build for the next 10 years. Easier to get because no one wants to start a max contract on a 30+ year old player. However, careers are becoming longer, max contracts shorter, and circumstances of teams change quickly, so you can sometimes contend a lot sooner than many pundits project.
Historical: KG, Ray Allen, Pau Gasol
Possible: Carmelo, Pau again, Zach Randolph

3. Good (but often non-max or at least non-consensus all-nba) rookies on the first year of their new deal. Often, players look great for 3 million, get signed for 10, have a regression and look scarily overpaid. Sometimes they are, sometimes it's perception (players are wildly underpaid as rookies and often somewhat overpaid as vets, but that is an inherent design of the system), and sometimes it's a combo of perception, unrealistic expecations for the signing team, and a small, possibly temporary regression. Try to target these guys when their current team is scared with how much money is left on the deal and they are disillusioned with the player. Often these players are NOT moved, but their first "overpaid" year represents a missed opportunity for the league to get a player with relatively few assets as their team has "buyer's remorse." These players are often not moved because the offering teams are also scared by the new contract plus player's down year maybe being a trend and not a blip, so they don't take the chance.
Historical: Afflalo (missed opportunity), Hibbert (missed opportunity; given big deal then "underperformed" for a year before becoming defensively dominant and anchoring a great team), Mike Conley (missed opportunity)
Possible/Future possible: Cousins, Holliday, Eric Gordon, Larry Sanders, Derrick Favors. Greg Monroe next year?

4. Career "losers." Media story lines have power, and writers are lazy so re-hashing is easy and common. So a player gets in trouble a few times as a 22 year old, puts up great numbers but plays for losing teams, so he's a "loser." Carries that label despite basketball being a genuine team game and teammates being out of any one player's control. Sometimes, you have to bust past that and try to "rehab" a "loser" (with a good coach and good teammates), when it then becomes clear this is a good player who just needs teammates (like literally every player) to have team success.
Historical: Zach Randolph pre GNG grizzlies; Odom pre swiss-army-knife Lakers role
Possible/Future possilbe: Carmelo (learning bad habits as he has to be the creator on NY; see his Olympic play as evidence of a great player when he has competent teammates), Josh Smith, Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Maybe down the line John Wall, Greg Monroe.

See, you're scared to trade for any of these guys, right?

But remember, we got Ray Allen and KG because there was a suppressed market for those guys because they represented a "win now" "all-in" type of thing with generally expected 2-3 year window. We competed for 5 years, and they were a great 5 years; that's nothing to sneeze at, with 1 title.


I would love peoples' thoughts on
a. the above targets and categories
b. additional categories
c. additional targets of new or above categories (with historical and potential current/future examples!)

I like your category one for a rebuilding team. Young players that our player development type coach can maybe develop? I doubt Enes Kanter is available, he has been playing great even though he has not been starting. Utah is loaded with great young talent and extra draft picks plus big expirings. Doubt they would want to take any salary from us and screw themselves up?

I think the time to get Robinson or Williams would of been when they were moved earlier this year?

MKG, PJIII, Ben McLemore or Austin Rivers sounds good to me. Not sure if they can actually play or are even available, but I love your Billups example. Obviously, several teams gave up on him before he became the elite player and championship piece.

Would consider Evan Turner or Eric Gordon if we could move Bass and/or Green in the deal. This team really needs scoring IMO. Price would be steep but would love to get Harrison Barnes. Thanks for the great post!

[PhoSita]

Harrison Barnes or Klay Thompson could be available within a couple of years. 

It seems unlikely to me that the Warriors will be able to afford to keep all of their key guys once Klay and Harrison are finishing their rookie deals.

Although perhaps they'll just find a taker for David Lee or Bogut.


Considering where our team is at right now, I don't think overpaid guys, or guys who are in line to be overpaid -- see Evan Turner and Eric Gordon -- are good targets.  I'm interested in bargains.