Grantland: Everything You Think You Know About Rondo's Shooting Is Wrong

[D.o.s.]

Grantland warmed up to stuff we've known for about a year now. Good job.

I still see people on these forums parrot the old "Rondo can't shoot" debate. So … yeah, no need to be so dismissive.

  There were plenty of people here who never updated their opinions of the players from 2009. Last year there were plenty of posts claiming that Rondo's success was mainly due to playing with HOFers.

Kind of like what Goldsberry says in the article?

. But as of last year, lots of defenders were still sagging off him, or going under the picks, and as a result many of those elbow shots were uncontested. So, while he has put up really efficient numbers, they are arguably inflated. Unlike many of his “elite” point guard peers, some opponents still dare Rondo to shoot — nobody dares to dare Tony Parker or Chris Paul to shoot. Moreover, last season the Celtics were still decorating the perimeter with dangerous shooters including Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, and it remains to be seen if defenders will be as spatially generous with Rondo in the absence of those guys.

That is what the argument always ends up at in all of the Rondo shooting threads--how much and whether his numbers are inflated by his teammates and his relative openness.

[Vermont Green]

Grantland warmed up to stuff we've known for about a year now. Good job.

I still see people on these forums parrot the old "Rondo can't shoot" debate. So … yeah, no need to be so dismissive.

  There were plenty of people here who never updated their opinions of the players from 2009. Last year there were plenty of posts claiming that Rondo's success was mainly due to playing with HOFers.

Rondo isn't a good shooter, at least as compared to NBA point guards.  The article had it exactly right.  Teams sag off Rondo so he has far more uncontested shots than say Parker or Paul.  The article speculates that this inflates his shooting percentages.  I agree with this.

The article also speculates that with all the HOF'ers gone, teams may be able to tighten up their defense on Rondo so that more of his shots will be contested and this will likely impact his percentage negatively.

I think all of this is fairly obvious.  The one thing I think may be a little different is Rondo if contested, is more likely to not take the shot than to take "bad" shots.  We'll see.  Maybe Rondo is going to debut an improved shooting stroke.

[Vermont Green]

Grantland warmed up to stuff we've known for about a year now. Good job.

I still see people on these forums parrot the old "Rondo can't shoot" debate. So … yeah, no need to be so dismissive.

  There were plenty of people here who never updated their opinions of the players from 2009. Last year there were plenty of posts claiming that Rondo's success was mainly due to playing with HOFers.

Kind of like what Goldsberry says in the article?

. But as of last year, lots of defenders were still sagging off him, or going under the picks, and as a result many of those elbow shots were uncontested. So, while he has put up really efficient numbers, they are arguably inflated. Unlike many of his “elite” point guard peers, some opponents still dare Rondo to shoot — nobody dares to dare Tony Parker or Chris Paul to shoot. Moreover, last season the Celtics were still decorating the perimeter with dangerous shooters including Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, and it remains to be seen if defenders will be as spatially generous with Rondo in the absence of those guys.

That is what the argument always ends up at in all of the Rondo shooting threads--how much and whether his numbers are inflated by his teammates and his relative openness.

I don't think it is all about teammates.  I think it did benefit Rondo to play with Pierce, KG, etc. but I don't think that is the main reason teams sagged off of him.  Rondo is a good player.  He was a good player on a good team and he will be a good player on a bad team.  The way teams defend Rondo may not change all that much but overall, I would think points and assists will come harder for Rondo on a bad team over what he has had.

[D.o.s.]

And we can finally begin to put the speculation to rest tonight!

Huzzah.

[Evantime34]

To me there were three reasons that defenses sagged off of Rondo. The first two reasons have been well documented: shooting struggles and great teammates (who the defense needed to help against). The third is that Rondo was lightning quick, and if a defender were to charge him he would go right by that defender. If you look at the success Rondo has had against Miami, you have to factor in how Miami blitzes pick and rolls leaving Rondo the opportunity to out quick the double team and get to the hoop.

I think until he proves that he has regained this quickness teams will pressure him, making it more difficult for him to get up contested shots.

[BballTim]

Grantland warmed up to stuff we've known for about a year now. Good job.

I still see people on these forums parrot the old "Rondo can't shoot" debate. So … yeah, no need to be so dismissive.

  There were plenty of people here who never updated their opinions of the players from 2009. Last year there were plenty of posts claiming that Rondo's success was mainly due to playing with HOFers.

Kind of like what Goldsberry says in the article?

. But as of last year, lots of defenders were still sagging off him, or going under the picks, and as a result many of those elbow shots were uncontested. So, while he has put up really efficient numbers, they are arguably inflated. Unlike many of his “elite” point guard peers, some opponents still dare Rondo to shoot — nobody dares to dare Tony Parker or Chris Paul to shoot. Moreover, last season the Celtics were still decorating the perimeter with dangerous shooters including Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, and it remains to be seen if defenders will be as spatially generous with Rondo in the absence of those guys.

That is what the argument always ends up at in all of the Rondo shooting threads--how much and whether his numbers are inflated by his teammates and his relative openness.

  Yes, just like that.

[BballTim]

Grantland warmed up to stuff we've known for about a year now. Good job.

I still see people on these forums parrot the old "Rondo can't shoot" debate. So … yeah, no need to be so dismissive.

  There were plenty of people here who never updated their opinions of the players from 2009. Last year there were plenty of posts claiming that Rondo's success was mainly due to playing with HOFers.

Rondo isn't a good shooter, at least as compared to NBA point guards.  The article had it exactly right.  Teams sag off Rondo so he has far more uncontested shots than say Parker or Paul.  The article speculates that this inflates his shooting percentages.  I agree with this.

The article also speculates that with all the HOF'ers gone, teams may be able to tighten up their defense on Rondo so that more of his shots will be contested and this will likely impact his percentage negatively.

I think all of this is fairly obvious.  The one thing I think may be a little different is Rondo if contested, is more likely to not take the shot than to take "bad" shots.  We'll see.  Maybe Rondo is going to debut an improved shooting stroke.

  If the reason Rondo's better at long 2 point jump shots than Parker or Paul is because they take a significant number of contested long 2 point jumpers I'd argue that neither of them are the sharpest knife in the drawer. But beyond that, when Rondo has the ball he can do 3 things: take an outside shot, pass the ball or penetrate. Teams playing him closer make it harder for him to shoot from the outside but easier to do everything else. It will be interesting to see what they do.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Rondo is a double-edged sword for defenses: sag off and you're giving him open shots and clear lines of sight for passing; pressure him and he'll blow by you.

I'm sure he'll be rusty for a little while, but I predict that once he's back in game shape, defenses will still struggle against him.

[ssspence]

This dude doesn't read Cs blog. None of this is news. Now about that FT shooting.....

I wouldn't care if Rondo never shot a 3 again if he could just learn to make 80% from the stripe.

[fairweatherfan]

Grantland warmed up to stuff we've known for about a year now. Good job.

I think it's more that Rondo returning makes a Rondo article timely, and Grantland is written for a much broader audience, so addressing a broader audience's misconceptions makes sense as a topic.  Most NBA fans aren't exactly obsessed with Rondo's jumpshot like we are over here, and there are still folks even here who think he's a bad shooter.

[chambers]

Grantland warmed up to stuff we've known for about a year now. Good job.

I still see people on these forums parrot the old "Rondo can't shoot" debate. So … yeah, no need to be so dismissive.

  There were plenty of people here who never updated their opinions of the players from 2009. Last year there were plenty of posts claiming that Rondo's success was mainly due to playing with HOFers.

I think Rondo's a better shooter than he gets credit for, but shooting isn't just about elbow jumpers from 10 feet. He's a terrible 3 point and free throw shooter as far as starting NBA point guards go.

Also, when have we seen him play without HOF help? What evidence proves his doubters wrong regarding the HOF player assistance?

[SHAQATTACK]

Good thing about Rondo s. shooting  is he does not chuck up shot after shot after shot until he finally hits one .

I've never complained about the amount of shots Rondo takes.   

Think he really should shoot more .   

[LooseCannon]

I wouldn't care if Rondo never shot a 3 again if he could just learn to make 80% from the stripe.

I am convinced that no amount of work that Rondo can pour into the task will every make him that good of a free throw shooter.

[D.o.s.]

Grantland warmed up to stuff we've known for about a year now. Good job.

I still see people on these forums parrot the old "Rondo can't shoot" debate. So … yeah, no need to be so dismissive.

  There were plenty of people here who never updated their opinions of the players from 2009. Last year there were plenty of posts claiming that Rondo's success was mainly due to playing with HOFers.

I think Rondo's a better shooter than he gets credit for, but shooting isn't just about elbow jumpers from 10 feet. He's a terrible 3 point and free throw shooter as far as starting NBA point guards go.

Also, when have we seen him play without HOF help? What evidence proves his doubters wrong regarding the HOF player assistance?

Well tonight's the first step towards having some evidence.

[ssspence]

I wouldn't care if Rondo never shot a 3 again if he could just learn to make 80% from the stripe.

I am convinced that no amount of work that Rondo can pour into the task will every make him that good of a free throw shooter.

I agree. But i think he should pour all of his effort into it over other elements. Get to 65%, 70%, 72%, 73%, whatever. It's makes him too weak in the 4th quarter to carry a team. Get it as respectable as possible.