Author Topic: Idea: Is Afflalo actually a star player who should be on the Celtics radar?  (Read 10092 times)

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Offline chambers

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I've always seen him as a completely overrated role player who is the dictionary meaning of mediocre.
He's on the worst team in the NBA (they're worse than Milwakee because Milwaukee are injury bad)and he's their leading scorer.
Good complementary scorer piece like Jeff Green but his defense is average at best.

He's playing almost 38 minutes a game too and average less than 1 steal, 4 rebounds and 4 assists. He's not an All Star.

I will admit he has improved and taken on the challenge of leading that crappy team- but at the moment he's inflated trade piece and I'd stay well away from any bidding wars that begin for Afflalo.
He'd be a great piece on the Bulls next to D Rose but he'll command a lot of money.
I'll give him credit for working his butt off each season to improve.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Offline LarBrd33

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I've always seen him as a completely overrated role player who is the dictionary meaning of mediocre.
He's on the worst team in the NBA (they're worse than Milwakee because Milwaukee are injury bad)and he's their leading scorer.
Good complementary scorer piece like Jeff Green but his defense is average at best.

He's playing almost 38 minutes a game too and average less than 1 steal, 4 rebounds and 4 assists. He's not an All Star.

I will admit he has improved and taken on the challenge of leading that crappy team- but at the moment he's inflated trade piece and I'd stay well away from any bidding wars that begin for Afflalo.
He'd be a great piece on the Bulls next to D Rose but he'll command a lot of money.
I'll give him credit for working his butt off each season to improve.
It's an interesting perspective.  I think a lot of people would side with you at first glance.  But here's what we know about Afflalo:

#1 - He seems to improve every single season.  Minutes are a factor, but also he's renowned for his animalistic work ethic.  He's one of those major Pro's Pro high character guys.  George Karl said he was one of his 3 favorite players ever to coach... along with Nate McMillan and Detlef Schrempf.

#2 - He's exceptionally efficient.  The "big numbers on a bad team" thing only goes so far.  Antoine Walker put up big numbers on a bad team, but shot 38% doing it.  Iverson put up big numbers on a bad team, but shot 41% doing it.  Afflalo is shooting an obscene 48%/44%/84% ... which is pretty crazy considering his team is 10-20.  His career splits are 46%/39%/82%.   Put him on a competent team with a floor general like Rondo, I see no reason to believe he would not remain super efficient.

#3 - I can't find anything that suggests he's actually a good defender.  I dove into those "on/off" numbers that Asik fanboys love to bring up.  It looks like the Magic allow significantly less points when Afflalo is on the bench.  95.3 per 100 possessions vs 104.7 when he's on the court.  Starting to think that stat is BS more and more, though.   As you'd expect, the offense is significantly better when he's on the court.
 
#4 -  He may in fact be available.  He's 28 and that team is deeply set in the long-view.  Harkless is 20.  Harris is 21.  Oladipo is 21.  Vucevic is 23.  They currently are tied for the 4th worst record in the league with an epic draft looming.   I don't see any point in keeping Afflalo on a developing team that likely is on a 3-5 year plan.  Their fanbase seems to be aware of this.  The most recent post on their blog is about how they need to trade Afflalo:  http://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2014/1/1/5263890/arron-afflalo-trade-orlando-magic-nba-new-year-2014 

#5 - His contract is very favorable.  7.5 mil per year for the next 3 years?... that's less than we pay Jeff Green for production that is far superior to Jeff Green.

#6 - If things continue like this, he should be a lock for the all-star team.  He's statistically the 3rd best SG in the league behind Harden (Western Conference) and Wade.  EFF of 19.6 is very good.  Look it up... this is a league depleted of quality SG's.  Name someone who has been better. 

#7 - You might not have to break the bank to get him.  Recent article suggests that Toronto may make a play for him and offer up 22 year old Terrence Ross... and that the Magic value Terrence Ross.  Ross is a 6'6 SG.  The 7th pick last year.  Currently averaging 9 points, 3 rebounds in 23 minutes on an impressive 44%/41%/82%.   That's a fine prospect.  Likely a better prospect than Bradley.   But my guess is that if you offered some package around Bradley and one of the 2014 picks, you might be able to start a discussion with the Magic.


« Last Edit: January 02, 2014, 04:53:39 AM by LarBrd33 »

Offline chambers

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I've always seen him as a completely overrated role player who is the dictionary meaning of mediocre.
He's on the worst team in the NBA (they're worse than Milwakee because Milwaukee are injury bad)and he's their leading scorer.
Good complementary scorer piece like Jeff Green but his defense is average at best.

He's playing almost 38 minutes a game too and average less than 1 steal, 4 rebounds and 4 assists. He's not an All Star.

I will admit he has improved and taken on the challenge of leading that crappy team- but at the moment he's inflated trade piece and I'd stay well away from any bidding wars that begin for Afflalo.
He'd be a great piece on the Bulls next to D Rose but he'll command a lot of money.
I'll give him credit for working his butt off each season to improve.
It's an interesting perspective.  I think a lot of people would side with you at first glance.  But here's what we know about Afflalo:

#1 - He seems to improve every single season.  Minutes are a factor, but also he's renowned for his animalistic work ethic.  He's one of those major Pro's Pro high character guys.  George Karl said he was one of his 3 favorite players ever to coach... along with Nate McMillan and Detlef Schrempf.

#2 - He's exceptionally efficient.  The "big numbers on a bad team" thing only goes so far.  Antoine Walker put up big numbers on a bad team, but shot 38% doing it.  Iverson put up big numbers on a bad team, but shot 41% doing it.  Afflalo is shooting an obscene 48%/44%/84% ... which is pretty crazy considering his team is 10-20.  His career splits are 46%/39%/82%.   Put him on a competent team with a floor general like Rondo, I see no reason to believe he would not remain super efficient.

#3 - I can't find anything that suggests he's actually a good defender.  I dove into those "on/off" numbers that Asik fanboys love to bring up.  It looks like the Magic allow significantly less points when Afflalo is on the bench.  95.3 per 100 possessions vs 104.7 when he's on the court.  Starting to think that stat is BS more and more, though.   As you'd expect, the offense is significantly better when he's on the court.
 
#4 -  He may in fact be available.  He's 28 and that team is deeply set in the long-view.  Harkless is 20.  Harris is 21.  Oladipo is 21.  Vucevic is 23.  They currently are tied for the 4th worst record in the league with an epic draft looming.   I don't see any point in keeping Afflalo on a developing team that likely is on a 3-5 year plan.  Their fanbase seems to be aware of this.  The most recent post on their blog is about how they need to trade Afflalo:  http://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2014/1/1/5263890/arron-afflalo-trade-orlando-magic-nba-new-year-2014 

#5 - His contract is very favorable.  7.5 mil per year for the next 3 years?... that's less than we pay Jeff Green for production that is far superior to Jeff Green.

#6 - If things continue like this, he should be a lock for the all-star team.  He's statistically the 3rd best SG in the league behind Harden (Western Conference) and Wade.  EFF of 19.6 is very good.  Look it up... this is a league depleted of quality SG's.  Name someone who has been better. 

#7 - You might not have to break the bank to get him.  Recent article suggests that Toronto may make a play for him and offer up 22 year old Terrence Ross... and that the Magic value Terrence Ross.  Ross is a 6'6 SG.  The 7th pick last year.  Currently averaging 9 points, 3 rebounds in 23 minutes on an impressive 44%/41%/82%.   That's a fine prospect.  Likely a better prospect than Bradley.   But my guess is that if you offered some package around Bradley and one of the 2014 picks, you might be able to start a discussion with the Magic.

I'd rather go after Ross or a younger type prospect with more potential personally. Afflalo is a great final piece for a contender that needs a solid non-all star (cheaper) role player- but I'd rather spend 10 million on Lance Stephenson at age 23 than Afflalo at age 28. I just don't think he's the kind of guy we're looking for at the moment unless we suddenly sign Kevin Durant and Larry Sanders next to Rondo and Sully.

His efficiency has been great and he's a great locker room guy- you're correct that he improves every year- and I love guys like that. I'd just rather spend money on a young guy that's improving every year and could potentially be an All Star.
Lance Stephenson is my boy. Ross is my boy.
Afflalo is my uncle hitting a hot streak.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Offline Celtics4ever

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The years of him improving are going to start being the years of him declining.  No man can beat old age and father time.

I have never thought of him as a star. Has he ever been an all-star?  He is a great story but its a year or two too late for us, I think.

Offline nickagneta

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Orlando might listen to offers for Afflalo and trade him if overwhelmed with value for him, but I get the feeling watching Magic games that they want to keep him long term aside Oladipo.

What a lot of people do not realize about the Magic is

1. Nelson's contract is only guaranteed for $2 million next year and the Magic could not pick up his option and save $6 million in salary right there.

2. The Magic are not going to need a replacement PG for Nelson if they release him because the Magic have been playing Oladipo at the PG position every chance they get, even when Nelson is in the game.

3. There is no need to trade Afflalo to open time for Oladipo because the Magic play Afflalo at SF with Nelson at SG and Oladipo playing the PG position for very long stretches of the game. Actually when old friend E'Twaun Moore is in the game he plays SG with Oladipo at PG and Afflalo at SF as well. So Afflalo has played almost all year at the SF position.

So unless you overwhelm the Magic with an offer, I am pretty sure their long term plan is to keep an Oladipo/Afflalo backcourt and look for a SF in this year's draft.

Offline guava_wrench

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It is too late to get Afflalo unless you like to buy high. I am against trading for guys who have peaked when we are rebuilding. Go for guys with upside who won't cost as much.

Offline BballTim

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If Boston could pull it off and somehow trot out a lineup of PG - Rondo, SG - Afflalo, SF - Green, PF - Sully, C - Asik... that's probably a solid 45 win playoff team right there.

Afflalo is interesting.  I don't think I've ever seen a player who has consistently improved every single season.

Season 1:  3.7 points
Season 2:  4.9 points
Season 3:  8.8 points
Season 4:  12.6 points
Season 5:  15.2 points
Season 6:  16.5 points
Season 7:  21.7 points

Pretty wild.  Mostly due to increased minutes.  He's 28 and in his prime.  Career splits of 46%/39%/82%  ... Good player.  I'd welcome him in Boston.

You're keeping Rondo!?

  It's tricky but it might work. Rondo's well past his prime, so you can balance things out by bringing in players that are older than him because they're in their primes. Or so I would imagine the thinking goes.

Offline manl_lui

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If Boston could pull it off and somehow trot out a lineup of PG - Rondo, SG - Afflalo, SF - Green, PF - Sully, C - Asik... that's probably a solid 45 win playoff team right there.

Afflalo is interesting.  I don't think I've ever seen a player who has consistently improved every single season.

Season 1:  3.7 points
Season 2:  4.9 points
Season 3:  8.8 points
Season 4:  12.6 points
Season 5:  15.2 points
Season 6:  16.5 points
Season 7:  21.7 points

Pretty wild.  Mostly due to increased minutes.  He's 28 and in his prime.  Career splits of 46%/39%/82%  ... Good player.  I'd welcome him in Boston.

You're keeping Rondo!?

  It's tricky but it might work. Rondo's well past his prime, so you can balance things out by bringing in players that are older than him because they're in their primes. Or so I would imagine the thinking goes.

how is Rondo's well past his prime? He is 27? Yea, he is coming back from injury, but I say he still has room to improve and definitely still be a top 3 pg in the league when healthy. I don't think you start dropping until you hit 29 or even 30.

Offline BballTim

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If Boston could pull it off and somehow trot out a lineup of PG - Rondo, SG - Afflalo, SF - Green, PF - Sully, C - Asik... that's probably a solid 45 win playoff team right there.

Afflalo is interesting.  I don't think I've ever seen a player who has consistently improved every single season.

Season 1:  3.7 points
Season 2:  4.9 points
Season 3:  8.8 points
Season 4:  12.6 points
Season 5:  15.2 points
Season 6:  16.5 points
Season 7:  21.7 points

Pretty wild.  Mostly due to increased minutes.  He's 28 and in his prime.  Career splits of 46%/39%/82%  ... Good player.  I'd welcome him in Boston.

You're keeping Rondo!?

  It's tricky but it might work. Rondo's well past his prime, so you can balance things out by bringing in players that are older than him because they're in their primes. Or so I would imagine the thinking goes.

how is Rondo's well past his prime? He is 27? Yea, he is coming back from injury, but I say he still has room to improve and definitely still be a top 3 pg in the league when healthy. I don't think you start dropping until you hit 29 or even 30.

  I was just mentioning one of LarBrd's favorite claims.

Offline LarBrd33

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If Boston could pull it off and somehow trot out a lineup of PG - Rondo, SG - Afflalo, SF - Green, PF - Sully, C - Asik... that's probably a solid 45 win playoff team right there.

Afflalo is interesting.  I don't think I've ever seen a player who has consistently improved every single season.

Season 1:  3.7 points
Season 2:  4.9 points
Season 3:  8.8 points
Season 4:  12.6 points
Season 5:  15.2 points
Season 6:  16.5 points
Season 7:  21.7 points

Pretty wild.  Mostly due to increased minutes.  He's 28 and in his prime.  Career splits of 46%/39%/82%  ... Good player.  I'd welcome him in Boston.

You're keeping Rondo!?

  It's tricky but it might work. Rondo's well past his prime, so you can balance things out by bringing in players that are older than him because they're in their primes. Or so I would imagine the thinking goes.

how is Rondo's well past his prime? He is 27? Yea, he is coming back from injury, but I say he still has room to improve and definitely still be a top 3 pg in the league when healthy. I don't think you start dropping until you hit 29 or even 30.

  I was just mentioning one of LarBrd's favorite claims.

Rondo probably is past his prime.  Just like DRose is probably past his prime at this point.  I doubt we'll see Rose ever win another MVP award.

That said, if Rondo gets 100% healthy, he's still a top 15 PG in this league. 

I'm not saying I'm in love with the idea of trading for Afflalo.  But I'm saying right now he'd be an upgrade at the SG position and would provide some much needed consistent scoring.  When Rondo returns, you're going to need someone he can pass the ball to... because Rondo himself isn't a reliable scorer.

I don't know what Ainge will do.  I can see the rationalization for all 3 directions.   Green/Rondo probably have a 3-5 year window if you're planning to build a contender with them as players.  Bringing in players like 27 year old Asik and 28 year old Afflalo would be representative of a team that zigs when everyone else zags... and tries to put together a competitive team in the decimated Leastern conference.  I think if one team is bold enough to be a buyer, they can make out with some really solid vet players for unproven prospects.  Toronto might want to consider doing that now that they are .500 and have beaten OKC and Indiana within a week.

Meanwhile, I can see the rationalization behind dumping Rondo in the next 6 weeks for some future assets and an improved shot at a superstar in the draft.  Sully is 20 years old and looks like he should be a pretty solid starter.  Bradley is a nice young role player.  Going full-blown Youth movement makes sense.  I'd support Ainge if he dumped all the vets (Green, Rondo, Bass, Lee) for draft picks and raw prospects. 

I could also see us just standing pat and figuring it out next year.  But I think that might get us to the 8th seed and 15th pick... a position I don't really want us to be in.  I'd prefer we go one direction or the other.  Currently we aren't good enough to compete in the playoffs and we aren't bad enough to add one of the 8 or so potential stars in this draft.  Rough position to be.

Offline pearljammer10

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Ive been on the Aflalo bandwagon all year. I think he would be a perfect fit next to Rondo. Having a killer offensive year and is a good defender as well.

I think he will be attainable too. Orlando is probably going to look for cap space, a young player, and a first rounder for him and we might be able to get him without breaking the bank too hard.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ou4n63q

I dont think either team does this but it could make a bit of sense? We trade Humps contract, Crawford selling high, and trade Lee's contract for Nelsons plus a first rounder in 2014.


Offline LarBrd33

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Ive been on the Aflalo bandwagon all year. I think he would be a perfect fit next to Rondo. Having a killer offensive year and is a good defender as well.

I think he will be attainable too. Orlando is probably going to look for cap space, a young player, and a first rounder for him and we might be able to get him without breaking the bank too hard.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ou4n63q

I dont think either team does this but it could make a bit of sense? We trade Humps contract, Crawford selling high, and trade Lee's contract for Nelsons plus a first rounder in 2014.
Swap out Lee and add Bradley... that makes sense.  Crawford, Bradley, a 1st rounder and Humph for Afflalo and Nelson.

I don't see why Orlando would want the veteran Lee and the 15 mil left on his contract.  It seems counterproductive to dump Afflalo only to pick up Lee.

Offline BballTim

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If Boston could pull it off and somehow trot out a lineup of PG - Rondo, SG - Afflalo, SF - Green, PF - Sully, C - Asik... that's probably a solid 45 win playoff team right there.

Afflalo is interesting.  I don't think I've ever seen a player who has consistently improved every single season.

Season 1:  3.7 points
Season 2:  4.9 points
Season 3:  8.8 points
Season 4:  12.6 points
Season 5:  15.2 points
Season 6:  16.5 points
Season 7:  21.7 points

Pretty wild.  Mostly due to increased minutes.  He's 28 and in his prime.  Career splits of 46%/39%/82%  ... Good player.  I'd welcome him in Boston.

You're keeping Rondo!?

  It's tricky but it might work. Rondo's well past his prime, so you can balance things out by bringing in players that are older than him because they're in their primes. Or so I would imagine the thinking goes.

how is Rondo's well past his prime? He is 27? Yea, he is coming back from injury, but I say he still has room to improve and definitely still be a top 3 pg in the league when healthy. I don't think you start dropping until you hit 29 or even 30.

  I was just mentioning one of LarBrd's favorite claims.

Rondo probably is past his prime.  Just like DRose is probably past his prime at this point.  I doubt we'll see Rose ever win another MVP award.

  Rondo being past his prime is wishful thinking on your part. If you have any evidence that he isn't expected to come back healthy then the word "probably" fits the sentence, otherwise not so much.

Offline LarBrd33

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If Boston could pull it off and somehow trot out a lineup of PG - Rondo, SG - Afflalo, SF - Green, PF - Sully, C - Asik... that's probably a solid 45 win playoff team right there.

Afflalo is interesting.  I don't think I've ever seen a player who has consistently improved every single season.

Season 1:  3.7 points
Season 2:  4.9 points
Season 3:  8.8 points
Season 4:  12.6 points
Season 5:  15.2 points
Season 6:  16.5 points
Season 7:  21.7 points

Pretty wild.  Mostly due to increased minutes.  He's 28 and in his prime.  Career splits of 46%/39%/82%  ... Good player.  I'd welcome him in Boston.

You're keeping Rondo!?

  It's tricky but it might work. Rondo's well past his prime, so you can balance things out by bringing in players that are older than him because they're in their primes. Or so I would imagine the thinking goes.

how is Rondo's well past his prime? He is 27? Yea, he is coming back from injury, but I say he still has room to improve and definitely still be a top 3 pg in the league when healthy. I don't think you start dropping until you hit 29 or even 30.

  I was just mentioning one of LarBrd's favorite claims.

Rondo probably is past his prime.  Just like DRose is probably past his prime at this point.  I doubt we'll see Rose ever win another MVP award.

  Rondo being past his prime is wishful thinking on your part. If you have any evidence that he isn't expected to come back healthy then the word "probably" fits the sentence, otherwise not so much.

 ::)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk

Offline manl_lui

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If Boston could pull it off and somehow trot out a lineup of PG - Rondo, SG - Afflalo, SF - Green, PF - Sully, C - Asik... that's probably a solid 45 win playoff team right there.

Afflalo is interesting.  I don't think I've ever seen a player who has consistently improved every single season.

Season 1:  3.7 points
Season 2:  4.9 points
Season 3:  8.8 points
Season 4:  12.6 points
Season 5:  15.2 points
Season 6:  16.5 points
Season 7:  21.7 points

Pretty wild.  Mostly due to increased minutes.  He's 28 and in his prime.  Career splits of 46%/39%/82%  ... Good player.  I'd welcome him in Boston.

You're keeping Rondo!?

  It's tricky but it might work. Rondo's well past his prime, so you can balance things out by bringing in players that are older than him because they're in their primes. Or so I would imagine the thinking goes.

how is Rondo's well past his prime? He is 27? Yea, he is coming back from injury, but I say he still has room to improve and definitely still be a top 3 pg in the league when healthy. I don't think you start dropping until you hit 29 or even 30.

  I was just mentioning one of LarBrd's favorite claims.

Rondo probably is past his prime.  Just like DRose is probably past his prime at this point.  I doubt we'll see Rose ever win another MVP award.

  Rondo being past his prime is wishful thinking on your part. If you have any evidence that he isn't expected to come back healthy then the word "probably" fits the sentence, otherwise not so much.

 ::)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk

why would Rondo be PASSED his prime when he is currently at the age where his prime reaches it's peak? And generally, aren't basketball player's prime in his late 20s? If anything, Rondo has 3 more years left. I think coming back from injury isn't exactly saying he is past his prime.

DRose is just very very unlucky with his injuries, but he is still young, and we can't tell how he performs after his 2nd season ending injury.