I'm having a hard time forgiving Danny for not taking Giannis Antetokounmpo

[j804]

I don't have high hopes or expectations for him but hopefully I'm proved wrong well see

[Galeto]

I think the reason Olynyk was taken despite his athletic limitations is basketball IQ. Ainge wants smart players who can shoot and pass because those qualities are becoming more important.

Giannis being a project has an unknown basketball IQ but his "sexy" qualities like measurables and athleticism are off the charts.

This is a good read about evolving offenses against Thibodeau-style Ds:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9149381/packing-paint-nba-defensive-strategy-forcing-coaches-rethink-their-offense

Here is a passage from that article:

• Shooting. The cat is out of the bag on this one. Players who can't shoot will find it harder and harder to get minutes, unless they bring an elite brand of defense or some other rarely found skill. There are lots of reasons that coaches place greater emphasis on shooting and spacing now, the simplest one being that three is greater than two. But those Thibodeau-style defenses are near the top of the list. Defenders can't stray quite as far off of knockdown shooters, or they might be afraid to do so, even when a team's defensive scheme suggests they should.

"Players are sometimes afraid to leave their own guy," says Micah Nori, a longtime assistant with the Raptors.

• Passing. This is the one that came up over and over in conversations with coaches and executives. Passing is obviously a good thing, and always has been. But the people running teams increasingly value above-average passing at every position, and express a deeper distaste for players — again, at any position — who are either unwilling passers or just don't show a sophisticated understanding of passing, timing, angles, and reading layers of defense. "Passing is just becoming so, so important," Boylan says. "If you want to be a good offensive team, you have to have good passers."

Olynyk versus Giannis was not a contest of smarts, shooting and passing ability versus an athletic marvel who was supremely raw.  It wasn't hard to gleam from his games, even against subpar competition, that Giannis possessed a very high basketball IQ and very good ballhandling and passing ability.  Further, he wasn't seen as a supreme athletic marvel because his hops were not as good as they are now.  I don't know why Ainge decided to veer from his love of length and athleticism (ex: Tony Allen, Gerald Green, Bill Walker, JR Giddens, Marcus Banks; in trades for Ricky Davis and Jeff Green) to pick Olynyk but I wish it hadn't occurred in 2013.  The team was starting over, the franchise needed potential high-upside guys and Ainge took the safe T-Rex.  I was disappointed. 

One thing that may have kept Giannis' full athletic potential under wraps was his extreme poverty.  He and his family were just scrapping by.  They didn't have a lot to eat.  I don't know how you're supposed to be capable of showing your full athletic potential that way.  It's not surprising that he's gotten faster, quicker and more explosive since he's been taken care of by nutritional and strength experts. If he had shown this kind of athleticism before the draft, it's possible he would've gone much higher despite the various risks.

[LarBrd33]

The pick looks bad at the moment because Giannis has progressed faster than expected and Olynyk has progressed slower than expected. Give it time. There's no telling how prospects will turn out eventually.

That's partially it... and also that Olynyk is 4 years older.  Oly is turning 23.  Giannis just turned 19 last month.  Oly has a limited ceiling... Giannis could end up a bust, but he also could be a force in 4 years when he's a veteran like Olynyk. 

[Roy H.]

The pick looks bad at the moment because Giannis has progressed faster than expected and Olynyk has progressed slower than expected. Give it time. There's no telling how prospects will turn out eventually.

That's partially it... and also that Olynyk is 4 years older.  Oly is turning 23.  Giannis just turned 19 last month.  Oly has a limited ceiling... Giannis could end up a bust, but he also could be a force in 4 years when he's a veteran like Olynyk.

Yeah.  In our position, we don't necessarily need "safe" picks.  Danny's worst draft pick ever (J.R. Giddens) was taken because he was supposedly safe and ready to contribute right away.

Of course, reaching for potential doesn't always work out either (Fab Melo).

[Fafnir]

Giannis could be great, or he could be Anthony Randolph (who also was great for flashes when he was young).

Given that he played in a garbage league overseas I can see why he didn't go as high as his athletic potential would normally dictate.

[hwangjini_1]

i would have preferred ainge to have picked Antetokounmpo in the draft. my preference was strictly based upon "swinging for the fences" in a bad draft. gamble big i thought. ante was a bigger gamble, but with potentially a higher ceiling.

ainge, who has a lot more to say in the celtics than i do, went more conservative. having said that, olly was a good pick i think, not great, but good.

next, since we are comparing olly and ante, let's take a look at their performance so far. i am not saying this wont change in the future, but so far they are not dramatically different.

Antetokounmpo
23 minutes/ game
7.2 pts/game
4.7 rbs/game
1.4 asts/game
54% fg
31% 3 pt
73% ft

OVOO (our very own olly)
19.4 minutes/ game
6.9 pts/game
4.6 rbs/game
1.6 asts/game
41% fg
30% 3 pt
86% ft

biggest differences so far?

(1) ante does better by far on fg%, but then, olly is being asked to stretch the floor and takes more of his shots from further out i believe.

(2) olly is a really good ft shooter, better than ante so far.

upside goes to ante in all likelihood. but so far, both are performing similarly in terms of stats.

what i want to see is how olly develops as the season goes on. so far his defense has swung from adequate to god-awful. and that is my biggest worry about him. but it is less than 1/2 of the way through his rookie season. let's wait and see.

[LarBrd33]

Giannis could be great, or he could be Anthony Randolph (who also was great for flashes when he was young).

Given that he played in a garbage league overseas I can see why he didn't go as high as his athletic potential would normally dictate.

Anthony Randolph came to mind for me as well... reminds me a lot of Randolph's early career... right down to Bill Simmons excessively overrating him.

[Fafnir]

Giannis could be great, or he could be Anthony Randolph (who also was great for flashes when he was young).

Given that he played in a garbage league overseas I can see why he didn't go as high as his athletic potential would normally dictate.

Anthony Randolph came to mind for me as well... right down to Bill Simmons excessively overrating him.

Similar body type, great PER, stats heads love him, and crazy young....

You know what really made me gasp, Randolph is only 24 even now.

[BballTim]

The pick looks bad at the moment because Giannis has progressed faster than expected and Olynyk has progressed slower than expected. Give it time. There's no telling how prospects will turn out eventually.

That's partially it... and also that Olynyk is 4 years older.  Oly is turning 23.  Giannis just turned 19 last month.  Oly has a limited ceiling... Giannis could end up a bust, but he also could be a force in 4 years when he's a veteran like Olynyk.

  Olynyk's older, but bigs generally take longer to mature as players than wings. Olynyk's limited ceiling is probably more due to his athleticism than his age.

[BballTim]

I think the reason Olynyk was taken despite his athletic limitations is basketball IQ. Ainge wants smart players who can shoot and pass because those qualities are becoming more important.

Giannis being a project has an unknown basketball IQ but his "sexy" qualities like measurables and athleticism are off the charts.

This is a good read about evolving offenses against Thibodeau-style Ds:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9149381/packing-paint-nba-defensive-strategy-forcing-coaches-rethink-their-offense

  An aside, but if you look at hoopdata there hasn't been any appreciable change in the number of shots (or assisted baskets) at the rim between 2007 and 2013.

[Fan from VT]

The pick looks bad at the moment because Giannis has progressed faster than expected and Olynyk has progressed slower than expected. Give it time. There's no telling how prospects will turn out eventually.

That's partially it... and also that Olynyk is 4 years older.  Oly is turning 23.  Giannis just turned 19 last month.  Oly has a limited ceiling... Giannis could end up a bust, but he also could be a force in 4 years when he's a veteran like Olynyk.

  Olynyk's older, but bigs generally take longer to mature as players than wings. Olynyk's limited ceiling is probably more due to his athleticism than his age.

Age at time of draft is one of the most important preductors for projecting nba peak with younger being better.

[BballTim]

The pick looks bad at the moment because Giannis has progressed faster than expected and Olynyk has progressed slower than expected. Give it time. There's no telling how prospects will turn out eventually.

That's partially it... and also that Olynyk is 4 years older.  Oly is turning 23.  Giannis just turned 19 last month.  Oly has a limited ceiling... Giannis could end up a bust, but he also could be a force in 4 years when he's a veteran like Olynyk.

  Olynyk's older, but bigs generally take longer to mature as players than wings. Olynyk's limited ceiling is probably more due to his athleticism than his age.

Age at time of draft is one of the most important preductors for projecting nba peak with younger being better.

  Talent projects to high nba peaks, with more talented players generally coming out early, hence the younger age when they're drafted. The age in itself doesn't matter. Duncan would have had pretty much the same peak if he'd gone straight from HS to the nba. Same with Shaq or MJ or Bird or Magic. But I don't think your comment specifically means that wings don't typically reach their peaks earlier than 7 footers.

[Celtics4ever]

I am sure Danny is having trouble sleeping knowing you resent him not picking, Giannis.

[rondohondo]

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1296898&start=15

Just scoll down to the first video on this page , and watch!

This kid is going toe to toe with durant and holding his own. He is going to be a paul george type all-star IMO,and Danny missed big time one him.

I made a post before the draft which had a quote from Danny saying Giannis could be the next Scottie Pippen. I wanted the c's to draft him even if they had to move up , but instead moved up for KO

I love Danny as a GM,BUT JUST CAN'T UNTERSTAND PASSING ON THIS KID......

He has the athleticism, size, skill , aggresiveness and length to be a stud, and I have no doubt he will. Plus he's only 19.........

Ugh 

[Smitty77]

Know nothing about Giannis... but gut intuition from watching Kelly at Gonzaga, watching him on TV as a Celtic, and seeing him live as a Celtic... He's trash. Would flourish in Europe. Not made for NBA - he is/will be exactly what I expected. Thanks, Danny.

NC Tarheel fan??