If the Season Ended Today

[LarBrd33]

Sorry, but that is not how odds are calculated. Whether the combos are valid or not the chances of the combo coming up are only reduced by the number of total combos left to be drawn, not the number of valid combos left to be drawn.

First draw has team with 250 chances to win.

That leaves 999 total combos. It doesn't matter that 249 are invalid. The 10th seed still only has a 11 out of 999 chance of being drawn.

Are you intentionally goofing around on technicalities or do you literally believe what you are saying?

Simple question for you.  Let's say the Teams with three worst records are #1 - Bucks (250 combinations), #2 Utah (199 combinations), #3 Orlando (156 combinations).

Lotto starts...

First combination belongs to Orlando. Orlando gets the #1 pick.

Next combination ... Orlando again.  They toss it out and try again.

Next combination... Utah.  Utah gets the #2 pick.

What are the odds now that the Bucks get the #3 pick? 

A -  39%
B -  18%
C -  Other (Please explain your answer)

(Hint:  Orlando and Utah are now off the board... making their 355 combinations irrelevant.  There are 645 remaining combinations and the Bucks own 250 of them)

[nickagneta]

Sorry, but that is not how odds are calculated. Whether the combos are valid or not the chances of the combo coming up are only reduced by the number of total combos left to be drawn, not the number of valid combos left to be drawn.

First draw has team with 250 chances to win.

That leaves 999 total combos. It doesn't matter that 249 are invalid. The 10th seed still only has a 11 out of 999 chance of being drawn.

Are you intentionally goofing around on technicalities or do you literally believe what you are saying?

Simple question for you.  Let's say the Teams with three worst records are #1 - Bucks (250 combinations), #2 Utah (199 combinations), #3 Orlando (156 combinations).

Lotto starts...

First combination belongs to Orlando.  Orlando gets the #1 pick.

Next combination ... Orlando again.  They toss it out and try again.

Next combination... Utah.  Utah gets the #2 pick.

What are the odds now that the Bucks get the #3 pick? 

A -  38%
B -  18%
C -  Other

To get into the exact math is fairly complex. It is not simple math. It deals with advanced probability and statistical mathematics. The answer is other.

But before any ball is drawn their chance of getting the 3rd pick is 18%

[LarBrd33]

Sorry, but that is not how odds are calculated. Whether the combos are valid or not the chances of the combo coming up are only reduced by the number of total combos left to be drawn, not the number of valid combos left to be drawn.

First draw has team with 250 chances to win.

That leaves 999 total combos. It doesn't matter that 249 are invalid. The 10th seed still only has a 11 out of 999 chance of being drawn.

Are you intentionally goofing around on technicalities or do you literally believe what you are saying?

Simple question for you.  Let's say the Teams with three worst records are #1 - Bucks (250 combinations), #2 Utah (199 combinations), #3 Orlando (156 combinations).

Lotto starts...

First combination belongs to Orlando.  Orlando gets the #1 pick.

Next combination ... Orlando again.  They toss it out and try again.

Next combination... Utah.  Utah gets the #2 pick.

What are the odds now that the Bucks get the #3 pick? 

A -  38%
B -  18%
C -  Other

To get into the exact math is fairly complex. It is not simple math. It deals with advanced probability and statistical mathematics. The answer is other.

But before any ball is drawn their chance of getting the 3rd pick is 18%

I think you're over-thinking it, honestly.

Admittedly, I could be wrong.  Would be nice to have someone who doesn't suck at math chime in.  But as far as I can see, in that scenario... there would be 645 valid combinations left and the Bucks would own 250 of those valid possible combinations.  That would mean they would have a 39% chance of ending up with the #3 pick at that point.  Meaning... the odds change depending on who ends up with the 1st and 2nd picks.

I hate to bring up "Deal or No Deal" again, but if there are 26 briefcases and one contains a million dollars... You have a 1/26 chance of picking the briefcase with 1 million dollars in it.  That's 4% chance of picking the right case. 

But if as the game continues and they open 24 briefcases... none of which contain the 1 million dollars.   That means there are two cases left... only one contains 1 million dollars.  1/2 chance that you have the briefcase with 1 million dollars in it.   That's not "4%" anymore.   Unless i'm really REALLY stupid... 1/2 means there is a 50% chance you are holding the case with 1 million dollars in it. 

So nick... if I then asked you "Well Nick, there are two cases.  One contains 1 million dollars.  One doesn't.  What's the chances the one you are holding has 1 million in it", your response would be:  "To get into the exact math is fairly complex. It is not simple math. It deals with advanced probability and statistical mathematics. The answer is other. "  To which I respond, "Well, no Nick.  That's foolish.  There's a 50% chance you are holding a case with 1 million in it.  Simple math, bruh"

Of course, there's another layer here.  Maybe you're talking about the fact that certain combinations involve certain ping pong ball numbers... and if some ping pong balls came up over and over during the first 3 draws, they are less likely to come up during the 4th draw... which would impact the probability for the Bucks to land the 3rd pick.  But I'm pretty sure that's not what you are suggesting.  And even so, it again proves my point that depending on how the first couple picks shake out, the odds fluctuate.  Thus... I'm right.

[obnoxiousmime]

#3 - Hawks would have Brooklyn's pick (6th best odds in lotto).  Gives them a great shot at the players thought to be the Top 6 right now: Parker, Wiggins, Embiid, Smart, Randle, Exum

this kills me. If Atlanta does end up getting a top 3 pick I ultimately look at it as a waste of a pick. because no one wants to play in Atlanta, so whoever they draft will end up leaving once their rookie contract is up.

Or they'll get a high pick and mess it up and take some guy no one has ever heard of.

Or they'll get a high pick and one of the top players flops.

I just don't envision Atlanta as a team that will ever figure it out.

I don't think that applies to the Hawks anymore. If you look at their roster, they don't have a single really bad contract. Also, all their top players are still young.

They got the best FA bargain of the summer with Millsap at 2 yrs/19. They drafted a promising PG in Schroder. The Heat recently called them the "Spurs of the East."

With moveable deals on the roster, Brooklyn's potentially low pick this year, and 30 million potential cap space in 2015, the Hawks have a lot of flexibility.

[SHAQATTACK]

If we really wants to be bad ....tank....should have kept Pierce and Garnet........we are a better team without them

Danny made the Celtics more competitive I think by dumping them.

Sorry if this offends.....just the way it seems.

[Celtics18]

As of 12/26/2013

Two really important things are currently making me very happy.



#1  The Celtics would be in the playoffs. Being in the playoffs is ALWAYS a good thing.

#2  LarBrd33 and all the 'tankers' are mad.  This probably should be #1 on my list.

Being in the playoffs is nice, but it's not always a good thing. Danny Ainge said it's not always a good thing.

I'd rather have a shot at one of the top 5 picks this year and finishing 21st instead of 16th.

Well if you consider a shot at a top three pick of 1% as being an actual chance at landing a top three pick then you should be thrilled because this team will probably finish in the 10th slot or so.

But if you think they will fall all the way to the bottom 5, then I think you are going to be sorely disappointed. The teams below Boston right now, except Brooklyn, are going to start or are already tanking hard. Boston is also a bunch better than some of those teams so there won't be a lot of losses happening against those teams.

Boston most probably will not finish as a playoff team but they most probably won't finish amongst the bottom 9 teams either which means almost zero chance at a top pick

This will be an easier thing to talk about in March when the general public is more familiar with the level of talent in this draft.   Right now we are basically tied with Chicago (11.5 games out of 1st)... Difference is that we have the 8th seed (15th pick) and they have a lotto slot (9th best odds).    Start listing off the names of the players towards the top of the lotto:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon

That's 7 guys that I'd be very happy with getting in this draft.  If I had a choice right now between getting swept by Indiana in Round 1 and picking 15th... or missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds... I go with missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds.  But that's just me.  And that's my thought process on December 26th.  As the season evolves, I'm sure my perspective will change.  Still another 53 games left to play in this young season.

Btw... the "1%" thing isn't factual.  The top 3 picks are determined by the lotto.   The team with 9th best odds has ended up in the Top 3 before.  People often think of just the top pick. And in recent years the Top pick has been taken by teams with the 6th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 3rd best odds.  But lotto teams also have a shot for the #2 and #3 pick.  Yes, most likely the team with 9th best odds lands the #9 pick, but it's also very possible they end up in the Top 3.  For instance, this year Washington had the 8th best odds and landed the #3 pick.  Chicago had 9th best odds when they landed the #1 pick they used on Rose.

But, those aren't' the only two choices.  I don't think anyone who would like to see this team make the playoffs is hoping to see us get swept in the first round.  Of course, getting swept in the first round isn't the only possibility if we make the playoffs.

We still have a good shot at winning the Atlantic, which would mean we'd probably be playing another mediocre team in the first round. 

If we could pull that off, I'd be happy if we could manage to take Indiana or Miami to at least six games in the next round (of course, I'd be rooting for the huge, unlikely upset the whole time). 

I don't like the idea of tanking for a 6% chance at a top three pick. 

[LarBrd33]

As of 12/26/2013

Two really important things are currently making me very happy.



#1  The Celtics would be in the playoffs. Being in the playoffs is ALWAYS a good thing.

#2  LarBrd33 and all the 'tankers' are mad.  This probably should be #1 on my list.

Being in the playoffs is nice, but it's not always a good thing. Danny Ainge said it's not always a good thing.

I'd rather have a shot at one of the top 5 picks this year and finishing 21st instead of 16th.

Well if you consider a shot at a top three pick of 1% as being an actual chance at landing a top three pick then you should be thrilled because this team will probably finish in the 10th slot or so.

But if you think they will fall all the way to the bottom 5, then I think you are going to be sorely disappointed. The teams below Boston right now, except Brooklyn, are going to start or are already tanking hard. Boston is also a bunch better than some of those teams so there won't be a lot of losses happening against those teams.

Boston most probably will not finish as a playoff team but they most probably won't finish amongst the bottom 9 teams either which means almost zero chance at a top pick

This will be an easier thing to talk about in March when the general public is more familiar with the level of talent in this draft.   Right now we are basically tied with Chicago (11.5 games out of 1st)... Difference is that we have the 8th seed (15th pick) and they have a lotto slot (9th best odds).    Start listing off the names of the players towards the top of the lotto:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon

That's 7 guys that I'd be very happy with getting in this draft.  If I had a choice right now between getting swept by Indiana in Round 1 and picking 15th... or missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds... I go with missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds.  But that's just me.  And that's my thought process on December 26th.  As the season evolves, I'm sure my perspective will change.  Still another 53 games left to play in this young season.

Btw... the "1%" thing isn't factual.  The top 3 picks are determined by the lotto.   The team with 9th best odds has ended up in the Top 3 before.  People often think of just the top pick. And in recent years the Top pick has been taken by teams with the 6th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 3rd best odds.  But lotto teams also have a shot for the #2 and #3 pick.  Yes, most likely the team with 9th best odds lands the #9 pick, but it's also very possible they end up in the Top 3.  For instance, this year Washington had the 8th best odds and landed the #3 pick.  Chicago had 9th best odds when they landed the #1 pick they used on Rose.

But, those aren't' the only two choices.

Just to be clear... the ONLY reason I list those as the two choices is because right now (December 26th at 7:53PM),  we are at a virtual tie record-wise with Chicago.   If the season ended today, we'd make the playoffs with the 8th seed and have the 15th pick.  Chicago would miss the playoffs and have the 9th best odds.   Is that clear? 

I'm saying that RIGHT NOW, I'd prefer to be in Chicago's position.  I'd prefer to miss the playoffs and have 9th best odds.  I don't see much to gain from getting swept by Indiana and ending up with pick #15.  Chicago is in a better position right now imo.

Once again... to reiterate the title of this thread... if the season ended TODAY... we'd make the playoffs with the 8th seed and face Indiana in the first round.  We'd end up picking #15.  This is completely cut and dry. Of course, anything can happen over the course of the next 53 games... we will revisit this topic as the season progresses.  But right now, that's the position we're in.  Bottom line. 

[Celtics18]

As of 12/26/2013

Two really important things are currently making me very happy.



#1  The Celtics would be in the playoffs. Being in the playoffs is ALWAYS a good thing.

#2  LarBrd33 and all the 'tankers' are mad.  This probably should be #1 on my list.

Being in the playoffs is nice, but it's not always a good thing. Danny Ainge said it's not always a good thing.

I'd rather have a shot at one of the top 5 picks this year and finishing 21st instead of 16th.

Well if you consider a shot at a top three pick of 1% as being an actual chance at landing a top three pick then you should be thrilled because this team will probably finish in the 10th slot or so.

But if you think they will fall all the way to the bottom 5, then I think you are going to be sorely disappointed. The teams below Boston right now, except Brooklyn, are going to start or are already tanking hard. Boston is also a bunch better than some of those teams so there won't be a lot of losses happening against those teams.

Boston most probably will not finish as a playoff team but they most probably won't finish amongst the bottom 9 teams either which means almost zero chance at a top pick

This will be an easier thing to talk about in March when the general public is more familiar with the level of talent in this draft.   Right now we are basically tied with Chicago (11.5 games out of 1st)... Difference is that we have the 8th seed (15th pick) and they have a lotto slot (9th best odds).    Start listing off the names of the players towards the top of the lotto:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon

That's 7 guys that I'd be very happy with getting in this draft.  If I had a choice right now between getting swept by Indiana in Round 1 and picking 15th... or missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds... I go with missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds.  But that's just me.  And that's my thought process on December 26th.  As the season evolves, I'm sure my perspective will change.  Still another 53 games left to play in this young season.

Btw... the "1%" thing isn't factual.  The top 3 picks are determined by the lotto.   The team with 9th best odds has ended up in the Top 3 before.  People often think of just the top pick. And in recent years the Top pick has been taken by teams with the 6th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 3rd best odds.  But lotto teams also have a shot for the #2 and #3 pick.  Yes, most likely the team with 9th best odds lands the #9 pick, but it's also very possible they end up in the Top 3.  For instance, this year Washington had the 8th best odds and landed the #3 pick.  Chicago had 9th best odds when they landed the #1 pick they used on Rose.

But, those aren't' the only two choices.

Just to be clear... the ONLY reason I list those as the two choices is because right now (December 26th at 7:53PM),  we are at a virtual tie record-wise with Chicago.   If the season ended today, we'd make the playoffs with the 8th seed and have the 15th pick.  Chicago would miss the playoffs and have the 9th best odds.   Is that clear? 

I'm saying that RIGHT NOW, I'd prefer to be in Chicago's position.  I'd prefer to miss the playoffs and have 9th best odds.  I don't see much to gain from getting swept by Indiana and ending up with pick #15.  Chicago is in a better position right now imo.

It's not a given that we'd get swept by Indiana. 

[LarBrd33]

As of 12/26/2013

Two really important things are currently making me very happy.



#1  The Celtics would be in the playoffs. Being in the playoffs is ALWAYS a good thing.

#2  LarBrd33 and all the 'tankers' are mad.  This probably should be #1 on my list.

Being in the playoffs is nice, but it's not always a good thing. Danny Ainge said it's not always a good thing.

I'd rather have a shot at one of the top 5 picks this year and finishing 21st instead of 16th.

Well if you consider a shot at a top three pick of 1% as being an actual chance at landing a top three pick then you should be thrilled because this team will probably finish in the 10th slot or so.

But if you think they will fall all the way to the bottom 5, then I think you are going to be sorely disappointed. The teams below Boston right now, except Brooklyn, are going to start or are already tanking hard. Boston is also a bunch better than some of those teams so there won't be a lot of losses happening against those teams.

Boston most probably will not finish as a playoff team but they most probably won't finish amongst the bottom 9 teams either which means almost zero chance at a top pick

This will be an easier thing to talk about in March when the general public is more familiar with the level of talent in this draft.   Right now we are basically tied with Chicago (11.5 games out of 1st)... Difference is that we have the 8th seed (15th pick) and they have a lotto slot (9th best odds).    Start listing off the names of the players towards the top of the lotto:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon

That's 7 guys that I'd be very happy with getting in this draft.  If I had a choice right now between getting swept by Indiana in Round 1 and picking 15th... or missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds... I go with missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds.  But that's just me.  And that's my thought process on December 26th.  As the season evolves, I'm sure my perspective will change.  Still another 53 games left to play in this young season.

Btw... the "1%" thing isn't factual.  The top 3 picks are determined by the lotto.   The team with 9th best odds has ended up in the Top 3 before.  People often think of just the top pick. And in recent years the Top pick has been taken by teams with the 6th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 3rd best odds.  But lotto teams also have a shot for the #2 and #3 pick.  Yes, most likely the team with 9th best odds lands the #9 pick, but it's also very possible they end up in the Top 3.  For instance, this year Washington had the 8th best odds and landed the #3 pick.  Chicago had 9th best odds when they landed the #1 pick they used on Rose.

But, those aren't' the only two choices.

Just to be clear... the ONLY reason I list those as the two choices is because right now (December 26th at 7:53PM),  we are at a virtual tie record-wise with Chicago.   If the season ended today, we'd make the playoffs with the 8th seed and have the 15th pick.  Chicago would miss the playoffs and have the 9th best odds.   Is that clear? 

I'm saying that RIGHT NOW, I'd prefer to be in Chicago's position.  I'd prefer to miss the playoffs and have 9th best odds.  I don't see much to gain from getting swept by Indiana and ending up with pick #15.  Chicago is in a better position right now imo.

It's not a given that we'd get swept by Indiana.

fair enough.  I admire your undying optimism, buddy.   I owe you an apology... the team is playing a lot better than I expected.  If the season ended today, I'd proclaim you victor... I thought there was no way in hell we'd make the playoffs.  34 wins and the 8th seed is still the playoffs.   But just to be clear, when you said Rondo was going to be returning in NOvember... did you mean November 2014?

[Celtics18]

As of 12/26/2013

Two really important things are currently making me very happy.



#1  The Celtics would be in the playoffs. Being in the playoffs is ALWAYS a good thing.

#2  LarBrd33 and all the 'tankers' are mad.  This probably should be #1 on my list.

Being in the playoffs is nice, but it's not always a good thing. Danny Ainge said it's not always a good thing.

I'd rather have a shot at one of the top 5 picks this year and finishing 21st instead of 16th.

Well if you consider a shot at a top three pick of 1% as being an actual chance at landing a top three pick then you should be thrilled because this team will probably finish in the 10th slot or so.

But if you think they will fall all the way to the bottom 5, then I think you are going to be sorely disappointed. The teams below Boston right now, except Brooklyn, are going to start or are already tanking hard. Boston is also a bunch better than some of those teams so there won't be a lot of losses happening against those teams.

Boston most probably will not finish as a playoff team but they most probably won't finish amongst the bottom 9 teams either which means almost zero chance at a top pick

This will be an easier thing to talk about in March when the general public is more familiar with the level of talent in this draft.   Right now we are basically tied with Chicago (11.5 games out of 1st)... Difference is that we have the 8th seed (15th pick) and they have a lotto slot (9th best odds).    Start listing off the names of the players towards the top of the lotto:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon

That's 7 guys that I'd be very happy with getting in this draft.  If I had a choice right now between getting swept by Indiana in Round 1 and picking 15th... or missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds... I go with missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds.  But that's just me.  And that's my thought process on December 26th.  As the season evolves, I'm sure my perspective will change.  Still another 53 games left to play in this young season.

Btw... the "1%" thing isn't factual.  The top 3 picks are determined by the lotto.   The team with 9th best odds has ended up in the Top 3 before.  People often think of just the top pick. And in recent years the Top pick has been taken by teams with the 6th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 3rd best odds.  But lotto teams also have a shot for the #2 and #3 pick.  Yes, most likely the team with 9th best odds lands the #9 pick, but it's also very possible they end up in the Top 3.  For instance, this year Washington had the 8th best odds and landed the #3 pick.  Chicago had 9th best odds when they landed the #1 pick they used on Rose.

But, those aren't' the only two choices.

Just to be clear... the ONLY reason I list those as the two choices is because right now (December 26th at 7:53PM),  we are at a virtual tie record-wise with Chicago.   If the season ended today, we'd make the playoffs with the 8th seed and have the 15th pick.  Chicago would miss the playoffs and have the 9th best odds.   Is that clear? 

I'm saying that RIGHT NOW, I'd prefer to be in Chicago's position.  I'd prefer to miss the playoffs and have 9th best odds.  I don't see much to gain from getting swept by Indiana and ending up with pick #15.  Chicago is in a better position right now imo.

It's not a given that we'd get swept by Indiana.

fair enough.  I admire your undying optimism, buddy.   I owe you an apology... the team is playing a lot better than I expected.   But just to be clear, when you said Rondo was going to be returning in NOvember... did you mean November 2014?

Clearly, my November prediction for Rondo's return was a bit optimistic.  I still think we'll see Rondo back with at least a significant amount of the season left.  And, I still think he will make this team better than they currently are. 

I mean, heck, around Valentine's day will be the twelve month mark since his surgery.  I'm still expecting him back . . . this season.

[oldtype]

Also, due to the law of extremely large numbers, the likelihood of an 8th, 9th or 13th seed coming in the top 3 again soon is probably extremely low, like almost non-existent low.

This part is factually wrong. Past results have zero bearing on future results. That sort of thinking only works when you're predicting an entire large sample in advance. (i.e. How many 9th seeds are likely to get in the top 3 over a 30 year period?)

[obnoxiousmime]

Also, due to the law of extremely large numbers, the likelihood of an 8th, 9th or 13th seed coming in the top 3 again soon is probably extremely low, like almost non-existent low.

This part is factually wrong. Past results have zero bearing on future results. That sort of thinking only works when you're predicting an entire large sample in advance. (i.e. How many 9th seeds are likely to get in the top 3 over a 30 year period?)

Haha, that's assuming the lottery isn't rigged!

Wait, is Stern stepping down before or after the lottery? He owes us big time.

[rondohondo]

Sorry, but that is not how odds are calculated. Whether the combos are valid or not the chances of the combo coming up are only reduced by the number of total combos left to be drawn, not the number of valid combos left to be drawn.

First draw has team with 250 chances to win.

That leaves 999 total combos. It doesn't matter that 249 are invalid. The 10th seed still only has a 11 out of 999 chance of being drawn.

Are you intentionally goofing around on technicalities or do you literally believe what you are saying?

Simple question for you.  Let's say the Teams with three worst records are #1 - Bucks (250 combinations), #2 Utah (199 combinations), #3 Orlando (156 combinations).

Lotto starts...

First combination belongs to Orlando.  Orlando gets the #1 pick.

Next combination ... Orlando again.  They toss it out and try again.

Next combination... Utah.  Utah gets the #2 pick.

What are the odds now that the Bucks get the #3 pick? 

A -  38%
B -  18%
C -  Other

To get into the exact math is fairly complex. It is not simple math. It deals with advanced probability and statistical mathematics. The answer is other.

But before any ball is drawn their chance of getting the 3rd pick is 18%

I think you're over-thinking it, honestly.

Admittedly, I could be wrong.  Would be nice to have someone who doesn't suck at math chime in.  But as far as I can see, in that scenario... there would be 645 valid combinations left and the Bucks would own 250 of those valid possible combinations.  That would mean they would have a 39% chance of ending up with the #3 pick at that point.  Meaning... the odds change depending on who ends up with the 1st and 2nd picks.

I hate to bring up "Deal or No Deal" again, but if there are 26 briefcases and one contains a million dollars... You have a 1/26 chance of picking the briefcase with 1 million dollars in it.  That's 4% chance of picking the right case. 

But if as the game continues and they open 24 briefcases... none of which contain the 1 million dollars.   That means there are two cases left... only one contains 1 million dollars.  1/2 chance that you have the briefcase with 1 million dollars in it.   That's not "4%" anymore.   Unless i'm really REALLY stupid... 1/2 means there is a 50% chance you are holding the case with 1 million dollars in it. 

So nick... if I then asked you "Well Nick, there are two cases.  One contains 1 million dollars.  One doesn't.  What's the chances the one you are holding has 1 million in it", your response would be:  "To get into the exact math is fairly complex. It is not simple math. It deals with advanced probability and statistical mathematics. The answer is other. "  To which I respond, "Well, no Nick.  That's foolish.  There's a 50% chance you are holding a case with 1 million in it.  Simple math, bruh"

Of course, there's another layer here.  Maybe you're talking about the fact that certain combinations involve certain ping pong ball numbers... and if some ping pong balls came up over and over during the first 3 draws, they are less likely to come up during the 4th draw... which would impact the probability for the Bucks to land the 3rd pick.  But I'm pretty sure that's not what you are suggesting.  And even so, it again proves my point that depending on how the first couple picks shake out, the odds fluctuate.  Thus... I'm right.

Down goes nickagneta, down goes nickagneta

I love how people will keep arguing when they are so clearly wrong , just because of pride or something? no offense nickagneta.

Larbrd33 is right on this one

[Moranis]

As of 12/26/2013

Two really important things are currently making me very happy.



#1  The Celtics would be in the playoffs. Being in the playoffs is ALWAYS a good thing.

#2  LarBrd33 and all the 'tankers' are mad.  This probably should be #1 on my list.

Being in the playoffs is nice, but it's not always a good thing. Danny Ainge said it's not always a good thing.

I'd rather have a shot at one of the top 5 picks this year and finishing 21st instead of 16th.

Well if you consider a shot at a top three pick of 1% as being an actual chance at landing a top three pick then you should be thrilled because this team will probably finish in the 10th slot or so.

But if you think they will fall all the way to the bottom 5, then I think you are going to be sorely disappointed. The teams below Boston right now, except Brooklyn, are going to start or are already tanking hard. Boston is also a bunch better than some of those teams so there won't be a lot of losses happening against those teams.

Boston most probably will not finish as a playoff team but they most probably won't finish amongst the bottom 9 teams either which means almost zero chance at a top pick

This will be an easier thing to talk about in March when the general public is more familiar with the level of talent in this draft.   Right now we are basically tied with Chicago (11.5 games out of 1st)... Difference is that we have the 8th seed (15th pick) and they have a lotto slot (9th best odds).    Start listing off the names of the players towards the top of the lotto:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon

That's 7 guys that I'd be very happy with getting in this draft.  If I had a choice right now between getting swept by Indiana in Round 1 and picking 15th... or missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds... I go with missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds.  But that's just me.  And that's my thought process on December 26th.  As the season evolves, I'm sure my perspective will change.  Still another 53 games left to play in this young season.

Btw... the "1%" thing isn't factual.  The top 3 picks are determined by the lotto.   The team with 9th best odds has ended up in the Top 3 before.  People often think of just the top pick. And in recent years the Top pick has been taken by teams with the 6th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 3rd best odds.  But lotto teams also have a shot for the #2 and #3 pick.  Yes, most likely the team with 9th best odds lands the #9 pick, but it's also very possible they end up in the Top 3.  For instance, this year Washington had the 8th best odds and landed the #3 pick.  Chicago had 9th best odds when they landed the #1 pick they used on Rose.

But, those aren't' the only two choices.  I don't think anyone who would like to see this team make the playoffs is hoping to see us get swept in the first round.  Of course, getting swept in the first round isn't the only possibility if we make the playoffs.

We still have a good shot at winning the Atlantic, which would mean we'd probably be playing another mediocre team in the first round. 

If we could pull that off, I'd be happy if we could manage to take Indiana or Miami to at least six games in the next round (of course, I'd be rooting for the huge, unlikely upset the whole time). 

I don't like the idea of tanking for a 6% chance at a top three pick.

That is true, but by missing the playoffs the Celtics would go from 15 (as the 8th seed) to 9th because of all the much better western conference teams, which is where the Bulls currently are.  It isn't like missing the playoffs moves you up just 1 spot, you jump a lot at this point.  Now that could change, but I'd rather be Chicago drafting 9th (with a shot at a top 3 pick) than Boston making the playoffs getting swept by Indiana and picking 15th.

[nickagneta]

Let's do a quick review of the draft lottery system so people understand how the odds are calculated. 14 balls are put into a bowl and mixed up and drawn in combinations of 4. That means there are 14!/4!X10! permutations or 1001 different combinations. The combo 11-12-13-14 is given to nobody so if that combo comes out the experiment is just done over.

The combinations are given out to the teams and in the case of the 10th which is what we were talking about the team is given 11 combinations.

So four numbers are drawn and a winner is found for the first drawing. let's say the 1st seeded team with 250 combinations won.

The balls are but back in the bowl and THE DRAWING IS DONE AGAIN.

There are still 1001 combinations in the bowl that could be drawn so the odds of the 10th seed getting the 2nd seed are still 1,1%, 11 out of 1000. It doesn't matter that 250 combinations are what LB calls "invalid" the combos still exist within the experiment.

This is not like the 24 cases pick one and one is removed now you have 23 cases

Its more like rolling a 10 sided die. You roll that die and you have a 10% chance of getting a 3. But after the first roll in which the number 5 won, you roll the die again. The number 5 has not been taken off the die. You aren't now rolling a 9 sided die. You are still rolling a 10 sided die so the odds of getting a 3 on the next roll remain at 10%

That is how the draft lottery works and why if you are a 10th seed your chances of getting any of the top three picks is just 1.1%