If the Season Ended Today

[Quetzalcoatl]

If we get even the 7th pick, I'm stoked.  It means we will get one of Exum, LaVine, Smart or Randle (or someone else if Danny sees something in Noah Vonleh or someone like that)

[LarBrd33]

As of 12/26/2013

Two really important things are currently making me very happy.



#1  The Celtics would be in the playoffs. Being in the playoffs is ALWAYS a good thing.

#2  LarBrd33 and all the 'tankers' are mad.  This probably should be #1 on my list.

Being in the playoffs is nice, but it's not always a good thing. Danny Ainge said it's not always a good thing.

I'd rather have a shot at one of the top 5 picks this year and finishing 21st instead of 16th.

Well if you consider a shot at a top three pick of 1% as being an actual chance at landing a top three pick then you should be thrilled because this team will probably finish in the 10th slot or so.

But if you think they will fall all the way to the bottom 5, then I think you are going to be sorely disappointed. The teams below Boston right now, except Brooklyn, are going to start or are already tanking hard. Boston is also a bunch better than some of those teams so there won't be a lot of losses happening against those teams.

Boston most probably will not finish as a playoff team but they most probably won't finish amongst the bottom 9 teams either which means almost zero chance at a top pick

This will be an easier thing to talk about in March when the general public is more familiar with the level of talent in this draft.   Right now we are basically tied with Chicago (11.5 games out of 1st)... Difference is that we have the 8th seed (15th pick) and they have a lotto slot (9th best odds).    Start listing off the names of the players towards the top of the lotto:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon

That's 7 guys that I'd be very happy with getting in this draft.  If I had a choice right now between getting swept by Indiana in Round 1 and picking 15th... or missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds... I go with missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds.  But that's just me.  And that's my thought process on December 26th.  As the season evolves, I'm sure my perspective will change.  Still another 53 games left to play in this young season.

Btw... the "1%" thing isn't factual.  The top 3 picks are determined by the lotto.   The team with 9th best odds has ended up in the Top 3 before.  People often think of just the top pick. And in recent years the Top pick has been taken by teams with the 6th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 3rd best odds.  But lotto teams also have a shot for the #2 and #3 pick.  Yes, most likely the team with 9th best odds lands the #9 pick, but it's also very possible they end up in the Top 3.  For instance, this year Washington had the 8th best odds and landed the #3 pick.  Chicago had 9th best odds when they landed the #1 pick they used on Rose.

[Celtics4ever]

I think our team has represented very well for their talent level.   Stevens has this guys playing over their head.

[nickagneta]

As of 12/26/2013

Two really important things are currently making me very happy.



#1  The Celtics would be in the playoffs. Being in the playoffs is ALWAYS a good thing.

#2  LarBrd33 and all the 'tankers' are mad.  This probably should be #1 on my list.

Being in the playoffs is nice, but it's not always a good thing. Danny Ainge said it's not always a good thing.

I'd rather have a shot at one of the top 5 picks this year and finishing 21st instead of 16th.

Well if you consider a shot at a top three pick of 1% as being an actual chance at landing a top three pick then you should be thrilled because this team will probably finish in the 10th slot or so.

But if you think they will fall all the way to the bottom 5, then I think you are going to be sorely disappointed. The teams below Boston right now, except Brooklyn, are going to start or are already tanking hard. Boston is also a bunch better than some of those teams so there won't be a lot of losses happening against those teams.

Boston most probably will not finish as a playoff team but they most probably won't finish amongst the bottom 9 teams either which means almost zero chance at a top pick

This will be an easier thing to talk about in March when the general public is more familiar with the level of talent in this draft.   Right now we are basically tied with Chicago (11.5 games out of 1st)... Difference is that we have the 8th seed (15th pick) and they have a lotto slot (9th best odds).    Start listing off the names of the players towards the top of the lotto:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon

That's 7 guys that I'd be very happy with getting in this draft.  If I had a choice right now between getting swept by Indiana in Round 1 and picking 15th... or missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds... I go with missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds.  But that's just me.  And that's my thought process on December 26th.  As the season evolves, I'm sure my perspective will change.  Still another 53 games left to play in this young season.

Btw... the "1%" thing isn't factual.  The top 3 picks are determined by the lotto.   The team with 9th best odds has ended up in the Top 3 before.  People often think of just the top pick. And in recent years the Top pick has been taken by teams with the 6th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 3rd best odds.  But lotto teams also have a shot for the #2 and #3 pick.  Yes, most likely the team with 9th best odds lands the #9 pick, but it's also very possible they end up in the Top 3.  For instance, this year Washington had the 8th best odds and landed the #3 pick.  Chicago had 9th best odds when they landed the #1 pick they used on Rose.

Actually the 1% odss of landing in the top 3 when you have the 10th position is extremely factual

Check out the chart here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

[LarBrd33]

As of 12/26/2013

Two really important things are currently making me very happy.



#1  The Celtics would be in the playoffs. Being in the playoffs is ALWAYS a good thing.

#2  LarBrd33 and all the 'tankers' are mad.  This probably should be #1 on my list.

Being in the playoffs is nice, but it's not always a good thing. Danny Ainge said it's not always a good thing.

I'd rather have a shot at one of the top 5 picks this year and finishing 21st instead of 16th.

Well if you consider a shot at a top three pick of 1% as being an actual chance at landing a top three pick then you should be thrilled because this team will probably finish in the 10th slot or so.

But if you think they will fall all the way to the bottom 5, then I think you are going to be sorely disappointed. The teams below Boston right now, except Brooklyn, are going to start or are already tanking hard. Boston is also a bunch better than some of those teams so there won't be a lot of losses happening against those teams.

Boston most probably will not finish as a playoff team but they most probably won't finish amongst the bottom 9 teams either which means almost zero chance at a top pick

This will be an easier thing to talk about in March when the general public is more familiar with the level of talent in this draft.   Right now we are basically tied with Chicago (11.5 games out of 1st)... Difference is that we have the 8th seed (15th pick) and they have a lotto slot (9th best odds).    Start listing off the names of the players towards the top of the lotto:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon

That's 7 guys that I'd be very happy with getting in this draft.  If I had a choice right now between getting swept by Indiana in Round 1 and picking 15th... or missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds... I go with missing the playoffs and having the 9th best odds.  But that's just me.  And that's my thought process on December 26th.  As the season evolves, I'm sure my perspective will change.  Still another 53 games left to play in this young season.

Btw... the "1%" thing isn't factual.  The top 3 picks are determined by the lotto.   The team with 9th best odds has ended up in the Top 3 before.  People often think of just the top pick. And in recent years the Top pick has been taken by teams with the 6th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 3rd best odds.  But lotto teams also have a shot for the #2 and #3 pick.  Yes, most likely the team with 9th best odds lands the #9 pick, but it's also very possible they end up in the Top 3.  For instance, this year Washington had the 8th best odds and landed the #3 pick.  Chicago had 9th best odds when they landed the #1 pick they used on Rose.

Only teams that miss the playoffs (14 teams) enter the lotto.  Only the top 3 picks are determined by lotto.  Here's the top 3 picks over the years and the odds of the team that ended up with the pick:

1985

Pick 1 - 3rd best odds
Pick 2 - 1st best odds
Pick 3 - 5th best odds

1986

Pick 1 - 6th
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 4th

1987

Pick 1 - 4th
Pick 2 - 7th
Pick 3 - 3rd

1988

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 7th
Pick 3 - 6th

1989

Pick 1 - 6th
Pick 2 - 3rd
Pick 3 - 4th

1990

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 10th
Pick 3 - 2nd

1991

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 4th
Pick 3 - 3rd

1992

Pick 1 - 2nd
Pick 2 - 8th
Pick 3 - 4th

1993

Pick 1 - 11th
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 7th

1994

Pick 1 - 4th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 2nd

1995

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 4th
Pick 3 - 1st

1996

Pick 1 - 2nd
Pick 2 - 3rd
Pick 3 - 1st

1997

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 2nd (Boston/Billups)

1998

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 1st

1999

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 13th

2000

Pick 1 - 7th
Pick 2 - 4th
Pick 3 - 1st

2001

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 8th
Pick 3 - 5th

2002

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 2nd
Pick 3 - 1st

2003

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 6th
Pick 3 - 2nd

2004

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 2nd

2005

Pick 1 - 6th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 4th

2006

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 2nd
Pick 3 - 3rd

2007

Pick 1 - 7th
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 4th

2008

Pick 1 - 9th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 3rd

2009

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 6th
Pick 3 - 4th

2010

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 6th
Pick 3 - 1st

2011

Pick 1 - 8th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 6th

2012

Pick 1 - 4th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 2nd

2013

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 8th

So yes, while it's unlikely that the 9th best odds would result in a Top 3 pick, it's certainly possible... and has happened before.  We've seen teams with the 13th best odds end up in the Top 3 before.   Considering there are at least 7 guys at the top of this lotto with major potential, I'd personally (right now) rather have No playoffs/9th best odds vs Getting swept by Indiana/15th pick.  Right now boston and chicago are virtually tied... and yet those are the two results they'd have if the season ended today.

[kingtutts]

I for one cannot fathom watching Pierce and KG in another uniform unless we have a decent shot at one of the top 5 picks in the draft.  An 8th seed and first round loss in the playoffs we could've done with Paul and KG, and still probably had the 15th, 16th pick in the draft, and given both of them a chance to retire in green.  I'm not okay with mediocrity. 

We are not the Wizards, or the Pelicans, or the Hawks.  Making the playoffs is just not acceptable.

Put a young elite level player with Stevens, Rondo, and Sullinger, then, and only then, do you have the foundation for an accelerate rebuild and the next great Celtics era. 

Lose Lose Lose.

I find your statement inconsistent. You are not okay with mediocrity, yet you talk about keeping KG and Pierce. We would still be quite mediocre with them.

Add to that the fact that the trade will have draft benefits for the next few years. Those are assets that we can leverage to get talent. KG and Pierce retiring would bring us nothing. So we would essentially have the same team except we would still have Terry's contract and we would have 3 less first rounders and no option to trade #'1 with the Nets. The only plus future-wise is not having Wallace's contract.

Why should having a top 5 pick be the magic criteria that makes trading them acceptable? So having 3 #6 picks would not be sufficient? How about if they were traded for Durant. Would that be acceptable? Perhaps what really matters the the drastically increased probability of adding substantially more talent going forward than would have been possible watching Pierce and KG fade into irrelevance here is Boston.

What makes Ainge's move even better is the significant chance that Pierce might have left the Celtics as a free agent after his contract expires for a last title run, leaving us with nothing. The sentimental people here would not see him retire in green, and the team would not acquire future assets.

First off its a personal opinion.  Secondly, the purpose of the trade was an accelerated rebuild.  Facts are facts, contenders in the modern NBA require one or two all world talents.  We made this deal to have a shot at a top 5 pick, in my opinion.  For me that makes the trade acceptable.  I do love the way these guys are playing, but I'm not interested in the 15th pick and a first round loss, while watching two guys who should've retired in green playing in Brooklyn.  Thats just my take.

[nickagneta]

Any results before 1994 has to be thrown out the window because the system was different than the current system.

Also, due to the law of extremely large numbers, the likelihood of an 8th, 9th or 13th seed coming in the top 3 again soon is probably extremely low, like almost non-existent low.

So we are back to the likelihood of a 10th seed still being about 1% chance of landing a top 3 pick.

You can site all the results you want but every new lottery still starts at the same odds and then when you consider the probability of a 8th, 9th or 13th seed repeating in the top 3 after already having been placed there recently and the odds get even worse.

[LarBrd33]

Actually the 1% odss of landing in the top 3 when you have the 10th position is extremely factual

Check out the chart here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

Technically you're still wrong.

The team with 10th best odds would have 11 possible combinations out of 1000 which gives them:

1.1% chance at the #1 pick.  1.3% chance at the #2 pick and 1.6% chance at the 3rd pick... but those odds can fluctuate depending on who lands the 1st and 2nd pick... since if the Top two picks go to the teams with the 1st and 2nd best odds, that takes 449 combinations off the board...  meaning that the team with the 10th best odds now has 11 out of 551 combinations... which I believe is 2% chance of landing the 3rd pick.  Just sayin...   


Taking this a step further.  If Brooklyn, New York and Chicago wasn't in shambles right now (they were thought to be contenders), Boston would be sitting pretty with the 7th worst record in the league.  That means if the #1 and #2 picks went to the teams with the 1st and 2nd best odds, that leaves 43 out of 551 combinations for the team with 7th best odds... which gives them 8% chance at the 3rd pick.  More importantly, it gives them close to 100% chance at the #7 pick... which is very favorable considering there are 7 guys in this draft many think could end up being stars:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon.

Think about it.

[nickagneta]

Actually the 1% odss of landing in the top 3 when you have the 10th position is extremely factual

Check out the chart here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

Technically you're still wrong.

The team with 10th best odds would have 11 possible combinations out of 1000 which gives them:

1.1% chance at the #1 pick.  1.3% chance at the #2 pick and 1.6% chance at the 3rd pick... but those odds can fluctuate depending on who lands the 1st and 2nd pick... since if the Top two picks go to the teams with the 1st and 2nd best odds, that takes 449 combinations off the board...  meaning that the team with the 10th best odds now has 11 out of 449 combinations... which I believe is 2.5% chance of landing the 3rd pick.  Just sayin...   


Taking this a step further.  If Brooklyn, New York and Chicago wasn't in shambles right now (they were thought to be contenders), Boston would be sitting pretty with the 7th worst record in the league.  That means if the #1 and #2 picks went to the teams with the 1st and 2nd best odds, that leaves 43 out of 449 combinations for the team with 7th best odds... which gives them 9.5% chance at the 3rd pick.  More importantly, it gives them close to 100% chance at the #7 pick... which is very favorable considering there are 7 guys in this draft many think could end up being stars:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon.

Think about it.

Technically you are wrong because the balls of the team that was selected are not taken out of play.

[LarBrd33]

Actually the 1% odss of landing in the top 3 when you have the 10th position is extremely factual

Check out the chart here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

Technically you're still wrong.

The team with 10th best odds would have 11 possible combinations out of 1000 which gives them:

1.1% chance at the #1 pick.  1.3% chance at the #2 pick and 1.6% chance at the 3rd pick... but those odds can fluctuate depending on who lands the 1st and 2nd pick... since if the Top two picks go to the teams with the 1st and 2nd best odds, that takes 449 combinations off the board...  meaning that the team with the 10th best odds now has 11 out of 449 combinations... which I believe is 2.5% chance of landing the 3rd pick.  Just sayin...   


Taking this a step further.  If Brooklyn, New York and Chicago wasn't in shambles right now (they were thought to be contenders), Boston would be sitting pretty with the 7th worst record in the league.  That means if the #1 and #2 picks went to the teams with the 1st and 2nd best odds, that leaves 43 out of 449 combinations for the team with 7th best odds... which gives them 9.5% chance at the 3rd pick.  More importantly, it gives them close to 100% chance at the #7 pick... which is very favorable considering there are 7 guys in this draft many think could end up being stars:  Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Smart, Randle, Exum, Gordon.

Think about it.

Technically you are wrong because the balls of the team that was selected are not taken out of play.

Technically nobody owns the balls... they own the combinations of the balls.   When I say the combinations are "out of play", the combinations can still come up agian, but they'll just dismiss them and re-draw... hence why it isn't televised... otherwise we'd potentially be watching Utah's combinations come up over and over again.  You get the point though

[GreenWarrior]

#3 - Hawks would have Brooklyn's pick (6th best odds in lotto).  Gives them a great shot at the players thought to be the Top 6 right now: Parker, Wiggins, Embiid, Smart, Randle, Exum

this kills me. If Atlanta does end up getting a top 3 pick I ultimately look at it as a waste of a pick. because no one wants to play in Atlanta, so whoever they draft will end up leaving once their rookie contract is up.

Or they'll get a high pick and mess it up and take some guy no one has ever heard of.

Or they'll get a high pick and one of the top players flops.

I just don't envision Atlanta as a team that will ever figure it out.

[nickagneta]

My point is those combinations that belong to a team that has been selected are still in play so even though they are discarded when drawn they still lessen the odds of the 10th seed to stay at 1.1%, 1.6% and 1.8%. The odds don't suddenly shift to 2% because the team with the most chances got drawn already. That's how the odds are calculated properly.

[LarBrd33]

#3 - Hawks would have Brooklyn's pick (6th best odds in lotto).  Gives them a great shot at the players thought to be the Top 6 right now: Parker, Wiggins, Embiid, Smart, Randle, Exum

this kills me. If Atlanta does end up getting a top 3 pick I ultimately look at it as a waste of a pick. because no one wants to play in Atlanta, so whoever they draft will end up leaving once their rookie contract is up.

Or they'll get a high pick and mess it up and take some guy no one has ever heard of.

Or they'll get a high pick and one of the top players flops.

I just don't envision Atlanta as a team that will ever figure it out.

I think it's easier to hang onto draft picks these days, because there is so much incentive to sign extensions with your original team.  You're basically locked in for at least 7 years.  WHich is why guys like Kevin Durant and Kevin Love didn't flee right after their rookie contracts ended.

[LarBrd33]

My point is those combinations that belong to a team that has been selected are still in play so even though they are discarded when drawn they still lessen the odds of the 10th seed to stay at 1.1%, 1.6% and 1.8%. The odds don't suddenly shift to 2% because the team with the most chances got drawn already. That's how the odds are calculated properly.

Actually yes... I think the odds mathematically shift... unless I suck really bad at basic math (which I probably do).  There's 1000 possible combinations.  The team with the #1 odds owns 250 possible combinations.  The team with the #2 odds own 199 possible combinations.  If the top 2 picks go to the teams with the #1 and #2 odds, that makes their 449 combinations irrelevant.  If they come up again, they just re-draw.  There would now only be 551 valid combinations left.   Team with the 7th best odds has 43 possible combinations.  Team with the 10th best odds has 11 possible combinations.  Do the math.   43 out of 551... 11 out of 551.  It's besides the point, though... if you had the 7th best odds, that means you're more than likely going to land the #7 pick.   There are 7 guys who are already household names and we haven't even started tourney season yet.

Let me illustrate this in a better way.  The team with the #1 odds supposedly (according to wikipedia) has 25% chance odds of landing the Top pick.  21% chance of landing the #2 pick and a 18% chance of landing the #3 pick.   That doesn't actually make any logical sense.  Maybe that's the odds prior to the lotto starts, but think about this logically.  They own 250 of 1000 possible combinations.  Obviously 250/1000 = 25%.  Hence why they have 25% chance at the #1 pick.  But those odds CAN shift.

Say for instance the #1 pick goes to the team with the 2nd worst record (199 possible combinations).  Then say the #2 pick goes to the team with the 3rd worse record (156 possible combinations).    That leaves only 645 possible combinations left when it comes to draw the #3 pick.   The team with the worst record now still has 250 combinations in play with only 645 (valid) possible combinations.  How is that 18%?  That's NOT 18%.   250/645 = 39% chance of landing the #3 pick.  Then if they miss out, there's 100% chance at the #4 pick.   Am I wrong? 

Have you never watched the show "Deal or No Deal"?  You might start with 1 out of 26 cases.... which is a 3% chance of picking the right case.  But at some point if you're down to two cases and one of them is the top prize... those odds have shifted to 50%.

[nickagneta]

Sorry, but that is not how odds are calculated. Whether the combos are valid or not the chances of the combo coming up are only reduced by the number of total combos left to be drawn, not the number of valid combos left to be drawn.

First draw has team with 250 chances to win.

That leaves 999 total combos. It doesn't matter that 249 are invalid. The 10th seed still only has a 11 out of 999 chance of being drawn.