Danny Ainge: "Making the playoffs is not a goal" (12/13)

[pokeKingCurtis]

So, if we are going to win 36 games and make the playoffs '5,6 or 7 games below .500', then what does Danny do to change that outcome?

  I'm not sure he'd do anything to change that outcome. People think that nba teams should judge the talent they have on the team, and if they decide that they don't currently have enough talent on the roster they should get as close to the bottom of the standings as they can. The league doesn't work that way, in fact it never really has. Getting really bad is generally a last resort, not the first move out of the gate for every team that doesn't have a James or Durant type of player.

So if he doesn't do anything, we just wait to see if we can wrestle a star from another team and accept our fate as a first round exit?
Even if we lose Bradley, Brooks, Crawford and Humphries- and gain the capspace from those departures, the biggest white elephant in the room is Rondo's looming free agency.
You can say 'I haven't heard anything about him wanting to leave'. But that's not re-assuring enough for me. We are facing a situation in 1.5 seasons where we have a roster of:

Jeff Green
Courtney Lee
Sully
Olynyk
Pressey
Vitor

Gulp.

  Yes, we'll probably let every player who's contract ends leave and not replace any of them. This will continue until we're below the league mandated number of players, after which we'll forfeit every game and end up with the top pick in the draft. Problem solved!

Well, that's probably not how it will go.

Still, this team is lacking the kind of major contributors who will make this team a true contender again.  It would be understandable to view a full season of rebuilding (watching a young, mismatched, developing, struggling team) that doesn't result in the kind of draft pick likely to yield such a player as a wasted opportunity.

  Sure, it's a lost opportunity, it's not the end of hope for years to come. Look, I get that people want a top pick in the draft. We're not contenders this year. Most people agree on that. It would be great to get a top pick in the draft in order to speed up the rebuild. Most people would agree with that as well. You put those two widely agreed upon statements together and come to the conclusion that the team should be as bad as possible.

  But the fact of the matter is that most nba teams don't follow that logic. The Celts may still end up with a bad record and a high draft pick. You just can't assume that's their plan or that they'll make a serious effort to accomplish that.

I don't think there'll be a concerted effort to somehow finish with 20 wins after starting 11-14.

I do think Ainge will look to sell off the role players that have trade value at the deadline, though.

I wouldn't expect Ainge to try to outright sabotage the team to give them a shot at a top 5 pick.  That ship may have already sailed.  But being a major seller at the deadline in the hopes that the team falls out of contention for the division and a lower seed in the playoffs?  That sounds plausible to me.

The Celtics probably won't get that top 5 pick without a lot of luck, but picking 9th or 10th isn't out of reach, and it would be much better than picking 16th or 17th just so we can watch a farcical 1st round playoff matchup between two mediocre teams.

Personally, I'd prefer the Celtics to get Aaron Gordon or Willey Cauley-Stein instead of watching them go 5-6 games against the Pistons or Bobcats.

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2014-nba-mock-draft.html

This guy thinks Gordon's dropping like a rock (to 20th).

But this guy's site seems kind of iffy and everywhere else I've heard Gordon is going in the lottery.

But he seems like he'll potentially be the biggest bust of the draft, from everything I've read and from my impression.

But I don't really follow college ball.

[nostar]

I don't understand the path the C's are on. I have some faith in Ainge so I'm not in panic mode but I think we're doing some silly things. It seems like while making the playoffs isn't a goal it's certainly the course we're on.

We play hard, we win games, we have our young guys playing pretty well. These are all positives. I would rather have that happen toward the end of the season. Right now I'd like to have a starting line up of Crawford/Lee/Wallace/Bass/Hump and a record of 5-19. Or barring that ideal give me that starting lineup with a 11-14 record. At least that way we are showcasing our bad contracts. The current course is something I don't understand.

I know there will be some posts about "playing with pride" and "building a culture" but this was a pragmatic post. I know losing is tough but mediocrity is soul crushing. Let's either make a big move or bottom out. This in between stuff is making me nervous.

[Celtics18]

So, if we are going to win 36 games and make the playoffs '5,6 or 7 games below .500', then what does Danny do to change that outcome?

  I'm not sure he'd do anything to change that outcome. People think that nba teams should judge the talent they have on the team, and if they decide that they don't currently have enough talent on the roster they should get as close to the bottom of the standings as they can. The league doesn't work that way, in fact it never really has. Getting really bad is generally a last resort, not the first move out of the gate for every team that doesn't have a James or Durant type of player.

So if he doesn't do anything, we just wait to see if we can wrestle a star from another team and accept our fate as a first round exit?
Even if we lose Bradley, Brooks, Crawford and Humphries- and gain the capspace from those departures, the biggest white elephant in the room is Rondo's looming free agency.
You can say 'I haven't heard anything about him wanting to leave'. But that's not re-assuring enough for me. We are facing a situation in 1.5 seasons where we have a roster of:

Jeff Green
Courtney Lee
Sully
Olynyk
Pressey
Vitor

Gulp.

  Yes, we'll probably let every player who's contract ends leave and not replace any of them. This will continue until we're below the league mandated number of players, after which we'll forfeit every game and end up with the top pick in the draft. Problem solved!

Well, that's probably not how it will go.

Still, this team is lacking the kind of major contributors who will make this team a true contender again.  It would be understandable to view a full season of rebuilding (watching a young, mismatched, developing, struggling team) that doesn't result in the kind of draft pick likely to yield such a player as a wasted opportunity.

  Sure, it's a lost opportunity, it's not the end of hope for years to come. Look, I get that people want a top pick in the draft. We're not contenders this year. Most people agree on that. It would be great to get a top pick in the draft in order to speed up the rebuild. Most people would agree with that as well. You put those two widely agreed upon statements together and come to the conclusion that the team should be as bad as possible.

  But the fact of the matter is that most nba teams don't follow that logic. The Celts may still end up with a bad record and a high draft pick. You just can't assume that's their plan or that they'll make a serious effort to accomplish that.

I don't think there'll be a concerted effort to somehow finish with 20 wins after starting 11-14.

I do think Ainge will look to sell off the role players that have trade value at the deadline, though.

I wouldn't expect Ainge to try to outright sabotage the team to give them a shot at a top 5 pick.  That ship may have already sailed.  But being a major seller at the deadline in the hopes that the team falls out of contention for the division and a lower seed in the playoffs?  That sounds plausible to me.

The Celtics probably won't get that top 5 pick without a lot of luck, but picking 9th or 10th isn't out of reach, and it would be much better than picking 16th or 17th just so we can watch a farcical 1st round playoff matchup between two mediocre teams.

Personally, I'd prefer the Celtics to get Aaron Gordon or Willey Cauley-Stein instead of watching them go 5-6 games against the Pistons or Bobcats.

Tank for 10th?  No, you don't tank for the 10th pick.  The chances of getting good talent at 9th or 10th aren't appreciably higher than finding a player at 16th or 17th. 

I'd much rather see the team make a push for a playoff spot at that point than tank for a late lottery pick or a less than five percent chance at hitting the jackpot. 

Luckily, I have faith that Danny Ainge isn't running the franchise as cynically as some fans want him to.  I don't doubt he'll make a trade if he thinks he can bring in talent that he thinks can get us back into contention sooner than later, but I don't see him making trades that undermine what Stevens and the guys are trying to accomplish for the sake of making the team worse and moving up a couple of spots in the draft. 

[chambers]

I don't understand the path the C's are on. I have some faith in Ainge so I'm not in panic mode but I think we're doing some silly things. It seems like while making the playoffs isn't a goal it's certainly the course we're on.

We play hard, we win games, we have our young guys playing pretty well. These are all positives. I would rather have that happen toward the end of the season. Right now I'd like to have a starting line up of Crawford/Lee/Wallace/Bass/Hump and a record of 5-19. Or barring that ideal give me that starting lineup with a 11-14 record. At least that way we are showcasing our bad contracts. The current course is something I don't understand.

I know there will be some posts about "playing with pride" and "building a culture" but this was a pragmatic post. I know losing is tough but mediocrity is soul crushing. Let's either make a big move or bottom out. This in between stuff is making me nervous.

I'm on the exact same wavelength. I think Ainge thought he put together a mediocre squad- which he did. What he didn't anticipate was the tanking efforts of other teams- and how many would be pulling major front office jobs. The Bucks, Orlando, Philly and Charlotte are taking it very seriously.

Looking at our terrible roster after the KG/Pierce trade we knew we'd be bad and get a losing record. Then the additional pieces of Phil Pressey and Vitor Faverani and Olynyk made us think.
This is it? Yes! Top 5 pick here we come baby!
Our roster has zero structure and our lone All Star is injured and won't be back till December!

Stevens is a good coach though, and players like Crawford and Bass have played very well.
I actually think without Crawford's explosion we'd be sitting on a record of 5 less wins- and that's about what Danny expected without Rondo here. Who could have predicted that J Craw would play so well?
I mean without those 5 or so wins our record is around the 6 and 19 mark and we are competing with Orlando and Milwaukee.
I think the 76ers have had a similar surprise from Carter Williams.
Injuries have also massacred teams early in the season. Chicago, NY, Brooklyn, Milwaukee- even Orlando.

All we can presume now is that our guys have had enough time to be showcased, and that if going after a solid draft pick or some kind of 'tank' is on the cards, then Ainge will be looking to have a fire sale on all these guys.

People are saying he won't give up our assets like Bass, Craw or Lee unless he gets good value- but if our goal this season is to be in the running for a serious draft pick, he won't care in the slightest about getting 50 cents or 75 cents on the dollar for these scrubs- the opportunity cost of missing out on this draft is potentially 10 years of championship caliber Celtics basketball.

I'm still fascinated by the article of the anonymous GM and wondering who it is. He's my kind of GM for a season like this.

[chambers]

there seems to be two schools on how the Celtics should approach this season.....

School #1 known as the "tankers" believe that by literally throwing as many games as possible therefore capturing a top pick in the upcoming draft that might or might not be the guy that lifts #18 in the rafters.
now you can candy coat the language to make it sound better but when all is said and done you want to teach these young guys how to be losers!!!

School #2 we'll call the "Brad Stevens Academy" and by the way, the school my kids will be attending, teaches character and how important playing at the top of your game can be in the future. besides teaching a winning mentality if the Celtics were to just make the playoffs with even the eighth seed, has anyone thought how valuable this playoff experience would be to the young Celtic players like Sully and KO???
I'll say this, if Danny Ainge is tanking, it's for dang sure the coach and players HAVEN'T BEEN NOTIFIED!!!

I wonder what the chances are that this anonymous GM is Ainge, or Ainge's protege Mcdonough (now GM of Phoenix).
It's your opinion that it's turning them into losers.
It's my opinion, based on the last 25 years of NBA championship winners, that sometimes putting out a team that isn't that great, in order to get a good shot at a potential franchise changing player, is the best course of action.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/nba-gm-admits-he-created-a-plan-for-his-team-to-tank-2013-10

http://thebiglead.com/2013/10/29/which-nba-gm-admitted-anonymously-to-espn-his-plan-for-tanking/

[BudweiserCeltic]

there seems to be two schools on how the Celtics should approach this season.....

School #1 known as the "tankers" believe that by literally throwing as many games as possible therefore capturing a top pick in the upcoming draft that might or might not be the guy that lifts #18 in the rafters.
now you can candy coat the language to make it sound better but when all is said and done you want to teach these young guys how to be losers!!!

School #2 we'll call the "Brad Stevens Academy" and by the way, the school my kids will be attending, teaches character and how important playing at the top of your game can be in the future. besides teaching a winning mentality if the Celtics were to just make the playoffs with even the eighth seed, has anyone thought how valuable this playoff experience would be to the young Celtic players like Sully and KO???
I'll say this, if Danny Ainge is tanking, it's for dang sure the coach and players HAVEN'T BEEN NOTIFIED!!!

I wonder what the chances are that this anonymous GM is Ainge, or Ainge's protege Mcdonough (now GM of Phoenix).
It's your opinion that it's turning them into losers.
It's my opinion, based on the last 25 years of NBA championship winners, that sometimes putting out a team that isn't that great, in order to get a good shot at a potential franchise changing player, is the best course of action.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/nba-gm-admits-he-created-a-plan-for-his-team-to-tank-2013-10

http://thebiglead.com/2013/10/29/which-nba-gm-admitted-anonymously-to-espn-his-plan-for-tanking/

Little chance that's Ainge in particular because what is quoted doesn't hold a relationship with what the Celtics did. Also there have been some other "anonymous" quotes of a GM telling that the 2014 draft is not as good as people are making it out to be, anonymous quotes that strongly suggest that hat it's probably Ainge (or someone that thinks like him) since he's made similar allusions publicly.

And for whatever it's worth, the Suns seem to want to trade their 2014 pick at the moment by the looks of it, but could be him.

[chambers]

there seems to be two schools on how the Celtics should approach this season.....

School #1 known as the "tankers" believe that by literally throwing as many games as possible therefore capturing a top pick in the upcoming draft that might or might not be the guy that lifts #18 in the rafters.
now you can candy coat the language to make it sound better but when all is said and done you want to teach these young guys how to be losers!!!

School #2 we'll call the "Brad Stevens Academy" and by the way, the school my kids will be attending, teaches character and how important playing at the top of your game can be in the future. besides teaching a winning mentality if the Celtics were to just make the playoffs with even the eighth seed, has anyone thought how valuable this playoff experience would be to the young Celtic players like Sully and KO???
I'll say this, if Danny Ainge is tanking, it's for dang sure the coach and players HAVEN'T BEEN NOTIFIED!!!

I wonder what the chances are that this anonymous GM is Ainge, or Ainge's protege Mcdonough (now GM of Phoenix).
It's your opinion that it's turning them into losers.
It's my opinion, based on the last 25 years of NBA championship winners, that sometimes putting out a team that isn't that great, in order to get a good shot at a potential franchise changing player, is the best course of action.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/nba-gm-admits-he-created-a-plan-for-his-team-to-tank-2013-10

http://thebiglead.com/2013/10/29/which-nba-gm-admitted-anonymously-to-espn-his-plan-for-tanking/

Little chance that's Ainge in particular because what is quoted doesn't hold a relationship with what the Celtics did. Also there have been some other "anonymous" quotes of a GM telling that the 2014 draft is not as good as people are making it out to be, anonymous quotes that strongly suggest that hat it's probably Ainge (or someone that thinks like him) since he's made similar allusions publicly.

And for whatever it's worth, the Suns seem to want to trade their 2014 pick at the moment by the looks of it, but could be him.

I actually thought what was quoted did fit with what we did.

*get young guys and picks
*trade away veterans
*there is an ownership group, not a single 'owner' (could be deception to throw us off).

Only thing that didn't fit was having the coach on the 'tank train', because Stevens doesn't seem to be on that carriage.

[BudweiserCeltic]

there seems to be two schools on how the Celtics should approach this season.....

School #1 known as the "tankers" believe that by literally throwing as many games as possible therefore capturing a top pick in the upcoming draft that might or might not be the guy that lifts #18 in the rafters.
now you can candy coat the language to make it sound better but when all is said and done you want to teach these young guys how to be losers!!!

School #2 we'll call the "Brad Stevens Academy" and by the way, the school my kids will be attending, teaches character and how important playing at the top of your game can be in the future. besides teaching a winning mentality if the Celtics were to just make the playoffs with even the eighth seed, has anyone thought how valuable this playoff experience would be to the young Celtic players like Sully and KO???
I'll say this, if Danny Ainge is tanking, it's for dang sure the coach and players HAVEN'T BEEN NOTIFIED!!!

I wonder what the chances are that this anonymous GM is Ainge, or Ainge's protege Mcdonough (now GM of Phoenix).
It's your opinion that it's turning them into losers.
It's my opinion, based on the last 25 years of NBA championship winners, that sometimes putting out a team that isn't that great, in order to get a good shot at a potential franchise changing player, is the best course of action.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/nba-gm-admits-he-created-a-plan-for-his-team-to-tank-2013-10

http://thebiglead.com/2013/10/29/which-nba-gm-admitted-anonymously-to-espn-his-plan-for-tanking/

Little chance that's Ainge in particular because what is quoted doesn't hold a relationship with what the Celtics did. Also there have been some other "anonymous" quotes of a GM telling that the 2014 draft is not as good as people are making it out to be, anonymous quotes that strongly suggest that hat it's probably Ainge (or someone that thinks like him) since he's made similar allusions publicly.

And for whatever it's worth, the Suns seem to want to trade their 2014 pick at the moment by the looks of it, but could be him.

I actually thought what was quoted did fit with what we did.

*get young guys and picks
*trade away veterans
*there is an ownership group, not a single 'owner' (could be deception to throw us off).

Only thing that didn't fit was having the coach on the 'tank train', because Stevens doesn't seem to be on that carriage.

And the part about "getting young guys" because what we actually did was trade a set of veterans for another set of veterans and picks... unless you count Marshon Brooks as the youth movement.

In any case, very much doubt the above has anything to do with Ainge.

[PhoSita]

Tank for 10th?  No, you don't tank for the 10th pick.  The chances of getting good talent at 9th or 10th aren't appreciably higher than finding a player at 16th or 17th. 

Once again, the misconception about the word "tank" rears its ugly head.

No, you don't outright "tank" for the 10th pick.

Do you make the choice to be a seller at the trade deadline instead of a buyer?  Yes, I think you do.  That's not tanking, it's just arranging your priorities for the future.

Brandon Bass is not the future.

Jordan Crawford, most likely, is not the future.

Courtney Lee is not the future.

Jeff Green and Avery Bradley may or may not be the future.


Looking to sell high on those players for future assets doesn't just help the team have a worse record this season.  It opens up time for players who probably do have a future here, and also increases salary cap flexibility, which is huge.  It's tough being a rebuilding team with salary obligations all the way up to the luxury line.  Making the team less competitive in the short term is an added bonus.

In the big scheme of things, picking in the top 10 is better for the future than playing a meaningful first round series against a team slightly less mediocre than ours.

[LooseCannon]

If the goal was to maximize losses this season, Avery Bradley would still be the point guard and Marshon Brooks would be starting next to him.

[PhoSita]

If the goal was to maximize losses this season, Avery Bradley would still be the point guard and Marshon Brooks would be starting next to him.

The goal for the coach is to get the most out of the pieces he's provided.

The goal for the GM is to make moves that set the team up to achieve its goals.

[oldtype]

Ainge's plan has failed this season because he a. underestimated Brad Stevens and b. overestimated everyone else in the Eastern Conference. We already have too many wins for a top three pick and plans will have to be reconsidered.

On the other hand, we always should have cause to be optimistic because we have a GM with skill, experience, a clout coupled with the best young coach in the NBA tied down to a long-term contract. A lot of teams who are tanking better than we are would kill for those things.

Even if things aren't working out in the short-term, we should be confident in the quality of personnel at the top of the club to turn it around long-term.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Ainge's plan has failed this season because he a. underestimated Brad Stevens and b. overestimated everyone else in the Eastern Conference.

Uh huh...

[BballTim]

I don't understand the path the C's are on. I have some faith in Ainge so I'm not in panic mode but I think we're doing some silly things. It seems like while making the playoffs isn't a goal it's certainly the course we're on.

We play hard, we win games, we have our young guys playing pretty well. These are all positives. I would rather have that happen toward the end of the season. Right now I'd like to have a starting line up of Crawford/Lee/Wallace/Bass/Hump and a record of 5-19. Or barring that ideal give me that starting lineup with a 11-14 record. At least that way we are showcasing our bad contracts. The current course is something I don't understand.

I know there will be some posts about "playing with pride" and "building a culture" but this was a pragmatic post. I know losing is tough but mediocrity is soul crushing. Let's either make a big move or bottom out. This in between stuff is making me nervous.

I'm on the exact same wavelength. I think Ainge thought he put together a mediocre squad- which he did. What he didn't anticipate was the tanking efforts of other teams- and how many would be pulling major front office jobs. The Bucks, Orlando, Philly and Charlotte are taking it very seriously.

Looking at our terrible roster after the KG/Pierce trade we knew we'd be bad and get a losing record. Then the additional pieces of Phil Pressey and Vitor Faverani and Olynyk made us think.
This is it? Yes! Top 5 pick here we come baby!
Our roster has zero structure and our lone All Star is injured and won't be back till December!

Stevens is a good coach though, and players like Crawford and Bass have played very well.
I actually think without Crawford's explosion we'd be sitting on a record of 5 less wins- and that's about what Danny expected without Rondo here. Who could have predicted that J Craw would play so well?
I mean without those 5 or so wins our record is around the 6 and 19 mark and we are competing with Orlando and Milwaukee.
I think the 76ers have had a similar surprise from Carter Williams.
Injuries have also massacred teams early in the season. Chicago, NY, Brooklyn, Milwaukee- even Orlando.

All we can presume now is that our guys have had enough time to be showcased, and that if going after a solid draft pick or some kind of 'tank' is on the cards, then Ainge will be looking to have a fire sale on all these guys.

People are saying he won't give up our assets like Bass, Craw or Lee unless he gets good value- but if our goal this season is to be in the running for a serious draft pick, he won't care in the slightest about getting 50 cents or 75 cents on the dollar for these scrubs- the opportunity cost of missing out on this draft is potentially 10 years of championship caliber Celtics basketball.

I'm still fascinated by the article of the anonymous GM and wondering who it is. He's my kind of GM for a season like this.

  When you consider that Rondo's coming back some time it's unlikely that you'll seriously affect our record by trading Crawford or Lee. Trading Bass won't hurt too much if Sully or Humphries get his minutes. I don't think a lineup with Rondo/AB/Green/Sully would be as bad as you hope it would. Plus, if you trade those guys away, you'll likely be bringing players back in return.

[kraidstar]

c's are in an interesting spot here.
the very good news about the c's (relatively) good play is that it boosts the trade value of the players. crawford, bass, and lee are all tradeable now. don't be surprised if danny trades them all for picks, especially if those picks are in this year's draft. and while some may be right that the top-talent in the draft might not be lebron james-level talent, there's no questioning the fact that the draft is quite deep.
but what ainge really needs to do is find a way to acquire a top-10 player. not only does that put the c's into contention, but it makes it much easier to lure other elite players.
so do we get that player in the draft or by trade? or maybe (not likely) free-agency in a couple years? ther's a lot of different ways this thing could go, it's exciting stuff, and the team is fun to watch too, so i'm happy.