No, I absolutely would not.
When both guys are healthy and at their best, still think Rose is one of the most overhyped and overrated Point Guards in the NBA.
Don’t get me wrong he is a very good player and a legit All-Star candidate, but I don’t consider him to be an ELITE player when you consider how many talented shoot-first PG’s are in this league.
I think that highly skilled pass-first point guards are far harder to find in this league and overall I consider Rondo a far better PG, and quite possibly a better player. I’ll explain why below.
Note:
All statistics quoted below are taken from hoopdata. Every stat is an average of the respective player's stat over their last four four (4) seasons in the NBA. For example, the statistic quoted for Derek Rose' shooting percentage at the rim is actually the average of what he has shot at the rim over his past four seasons. This presents a broader view of the players performance over the years as a whole, and helps to allow for players who have had inconsistent careers.Part 1 – Pure Point Guard SkillsFirst of all let us look at Rose’s ability as a pure PG, starting with his assist rate.
NBA Player | Assist Rate | Rank |
Rajon Rondo | 64 | 1 |
Steve Nash | 62 | 2 |
Chris Paul | 51 | 3 |
Deron Williams | 44 | 4 |
Tony Parker | 35 | 5 |
Andre Iguodala | 35 | 6 |
Derek Rose | 31 | 7 |
R Westbrook | 30 | 8 |
Dwyane Wade | 25 | 9 |
Tyreke Evans | 24 | 10 |
Jordan Crawford | 19 | 11 |
So Rose is clearly a skilled passer. I’d consider guys like Jordan Crawford, Tyreke Evans and Dwyane Wade to be above average combo guards in terms of passing ability. I’d consider guys like Tony Parker and Andre Iguodala to be excellent combo guards. Rose (like Westbrook) lies somewhere in the middle very good PG skills by combo guard standards, but not good enough to be considered a proper PG (such as Deron, CP3, Nash and Rondo).
The other factor for a PG aside from generate assists, is the ability to hold on to the ball. In terms of turnover rate, Rose is pretty much on comparable with other combo guards out there who handle the ball a lot:
NBA Player | Turnover Rate | Rank |
Chris Paul | 11.7 | 1 |
Dwyane Wade | 11.8 | 2 |
Jordan Crawford | 12.5 | 3 |
Derek Rose | 13.0 | 4 |
Tony Parker | 13.0 | 5 |
Tyreke Evans | 13.4 | 6 |
Andre Iguodala | 13.5 | 7 |
R Westbrook | 14.2 | 8 |
Deron Williams | 15.4 | 9 |
Rajon Rondo | 20.1 | 10 |
Steve Nash | 21.2 | 11 |
So Rose does a pretty good job of not turning the ball over given how often he handles the ball, but his turnover rate is still pretty middle of the pack. Lets calculate the Assist Rate / Turover Rate to create a makeshift “Assist/Turnover Rate”:
NBA Player | Ast /TO Rate | Rank |
Chris Paul | 4.4 | 1 |
Rajon Rondo | 3.2 | 2 |
Steve Nash | 2.9 | 3 |
Deron Williams | 2.9 | 4 |
Tony Parker | 2.7 | 5 |
Andre Iguodala | 2.6 | 6 |
Derek Rose | 2.4 | 7 |
Dwyane Wade | 2.2 | 8 |
R Westbrook | 2.1 | 9 |
Tyreke Evans | 1.8 | 10 |
Jordan Crawford | 1.5 | 11 |
So now we can clearly see that Rose lies squarely in “Combo Guard” territory in terms of his pure point guard skills. He is really no more a pure PG than someone like Iggy or D-Wade…he mostly just plays the position because of his lack of height and the Bulls lack of a more suitable player at the position.
Part 2 – Scoring – Shooting From the fieldNow we have established that Rose clearly doesn’t have the skills to be a pure PG. If he is as elite as people say, his main talent must be scoring. Is he really an elite scorer though? Let’s see.
Offensively Rose is most famous for his elite ability to finish at the basket off dribble penetration. Let’s see how he compares to the other guys on this list in his ability to finish at the rim:
NBA Player | At the Basket | Rank |
Steve Nash | 72.4% | 1 |
Dwyane Wade | 68.5% | 2 |
Tony Parker | 65.6% | 3 |
Chris Paul | 64.6% | 4 |
Rajon Rondo | 62.1% | 5 |
Tyreke Evans | 61.6% | 6 |
Jordan Crawford | 61.5% | 7 |
Deron Williams | 60.3% | 8 |
R Westbrook | 59.8% | 9 |
Derek Rose | 57.8% | 10 |
Andre Iguodala | 55.6% | 11 |
Ok then…not so elite after all. Every single player on this list except Iggy scores more effectively around the basket than Rose does. In fact Rondo is far above him in this regard, and seems to be much underrated in his ability to finish around the basket.
NBA Player | 3-9 Feet | Rank |
Steve Nash | 51.8% | 1 |
Chris Paul | 47.1% | 2 |
Derek Rose | 47.0% | 3 |
Jordan Crawford | 43.5% | 4 |
Tony Parker | 42.2% | 5 |
Deron Williams | 40.6% | 6 |
Dwyane Wade | 39.5% | 7 |
R Westbrook | 38.1% | 8 |
Rajon Rondo | 36.0% | 9 |
Andre Iguodala | 34.4% | 10 |
Tyreke Evans | 28.0% | 11 |
Ok, finally we have found an area in which Derek Rose really excels. He is an elite finisher from 3-9 feet, and his 47% from that area is very impressive.
NBA Player | 10-15 Feet | Rank |
Steve Nash | 51.2% | 1 |
Chris Paul | 47.1% | 2 |
Jordan Crawford | 46.9% | 3 |
Tony Parker | 42.2% | 4 |
Derek Rose | 41.7% | 5 |
Deron Williams | 40.6% | 6 |
Dwyane Wade | 39.5% | 7 |
R Westbrook | 38.1% | 8 |
Rajon Rondo | 36.0% | 9 |
Andre Iguodala | 34.4% | 10 |
Tyreke Evans | 22.2% | 11 |
Ok, so yet another area where Rose is pretty much dead on average. The top shooters at the guard spot seem to be up around 47% from 10-15 feet, while the sub-par ones seem to be down around 36% (ignoring Tyreke – ugh). Rose’s 41% is more or less right in the middle, maybe slightly above average at best. The shock here is Jordan Crawford – he’s been ranking pretty well in every category so far…better player than I thought!!
NBA Player | 16-23 Feet | Rank |
Steve Nash | 48.5% | 1 |
Chris Paul | 46.0% | 2 |
Derek Rose | 40.5% | 3 |
Rajon Rondo | 40.3% | 4 |
Tony Parker | 39.0% | 5 |
R Westbrook | 38.5% | 6 |
Deron Williams | 38.3% | 7 |
Dwyane Wade | 37.8% | 8 |
Jordan Crawford | 37.3% | 9 |
Andre Iguodala | 34.5% | 10 |
Tyreke Evans | 31.5% | 11 |
Another area where Rose is roughly average, maybe only just above average. Pretty much on par with Rondo, Parker, Westbrook, Deron here. Not on the elite level of Nash/Paul nor the horribly mediocre level of Iggy/Tyreke – right in between.
NBA Player | Three Point | Rank |
Steve Nash | 41.2% | 1 |
Chris Paul | 37.4% | 2 |
Andre Iguodala | 33.9% | 3 |
Deron Williams | 33.3% | 4 |
Tony Parker | 30.7% | 5 |
Jordan Crawford | 29.9% | 6 |
R Westbrook | 29.8% | 7 |
Derek Rose | 28.3% | 8 |
Dwyane Wade | 28.2% | 9 |
Tyreke Evans | 27.0% | 10 |
Rajon Rondo | 23.1% | 11 |
Rose is clearly average, maybe a tad below average from three.
We are starting to see a general trend here:
* Nash and Paul are deadly scorers from everywhere on the court
* Parker is pretty solid from anywhere on the court
* Crawford is pretty much elite within 15 feet, mediocre beyond that
* Tyreke is probably one of the worst scorers in the NBA and woeful from anywhere
Rose’s reputation as an elite scorer has me scratching my head. With the exception of that 3-9 foot range (where he is truly elite) Rose is otherwise a really average scorer from every other spot on the floor.
Part 3 – The free throw linePart of Rose’s reputation as an elite scorer revolves around his ability to get to the line and finish with contact. Let’s see how he compared to the others in those two areas:
NBA Player | FTR | Rank |
Dwyane Wade | 0.42 | 1 |
R Westbrook | 0.38 | 2 |
Deron Williams | 0.36 | 3 |
Chris Paul | 0.36 | 4 |
Andre Iguodala | 0.35 | 5 |
Tyreke Evans | 0.33 | 6 |
Tony Parker | 0.32 | 7 |
Derek Rose | 0.29 | 8 |
Steve Nash | 0.26 | 9 |
Rajon Rondo | 0.23 | 10 |
Jordan Crawford | 0.22 | 11 |
Once again, Rose is pretty average in terms of his ability to get to the line. Guys like Deron, CP3 and Westbrook all get to the line far more often than Rose does.
NBA Player | And1 | Rank |
Dwyane Wade | 0.78 | 1 |
R Westbrook | 0.56 | 2 |
Derek Rose | 0.54 | 3 |
Deron Williams | 0.49 | 4 |
Tony Parker | 0.46 | 5 |
Tyreke Evans | 0.44 | 6 |
Chris Paul | 0.31 | 7 |
Andre Iguodala | 0.31 | 7 |
Jordan Crawford | 0.24 | 9 |
Rajon Rondo | 0.24 | 9 |
Steve Nash | 0.14 | 11 |
Finally, the penny drops and things start to make sense. We can now see how guys like Wade, Westbrook Rose and Tyreke get all of their points – from And1’s. All of these guys rank somewhere between average and mediocre from the field overall, but they are clearly very skilled at finishing with contact. Rose in that regard is up there with the best – he doesn’t get to the line often, but when he does he usually makes the shot as well.
Rondo actually gets to the line almost as often as Rose does, and the ‘eye test’ tells me that he connects on those shots pretty often. I think Rondo’s poor free throw shooting really hurts him in this regard, and if he were even a 75% shooter I think he’d be ranked somewhere between Tyreke and CP3 on this list.
Part 4 – ReboundingSo Point Guards are generally depended on to run the offense, and we like them to be able to score a bit too. There are some other areas in which guards don’t get enough credit – rebounding. Let’s see how Rose rates here.
NBA Player | Off-RR | Rank |
R Westbrook | 5.3 | 1 |
Dwyane Wade | 5.1 | 2 |
Rajon Rondo | 4.1 | 3 |
Andre Iguodala | 3.0 | 4 |
Derek Rose | 2.9 | 5 |
Tyreke Evans | 2.9 | 6 |
Jordan Crawford | 2.8 | 7 |
Chris Paul | 2.0 | 8 |
Steve Nash | 1.7 | 9 |
Deron Williams | 1.6 | 10 |
Tony Parker | 1.1 | 11 |
I would say Rose is about an average offensive rebounder for a guard. While it’s impressive that he is up there with guys like Crawford, Iggy and Evans (who are all SGs and a good 2” taller) at the same time there is just as much gap between him and the top offensive rebounders (Rondo, Wade, etc) as there is between him and the less impressive offensive rebounders (Paul, Parker). By defininition that tells me he is middle of the pack.
NBA Player | Def -RR | Rank |
Andre Iguodala | 15.5 | 1 |
Tyreke Evans | 12.9 | 2 |
Dwyane Wade | 12.4 | 3 |
Rajon Rondo | 11.2 | 4 |
Chris Paul | 11.0 | 5 |
R Westbrook | 10.4 | 6 |
Deron Williams | 10.3 | 7 |
Jordan Crawford | 9.5 | 8 |
Steve Nash | 9.1 | 9 |
Tony Parker | 8.9 | 10 |
Derek Rose | 8.7 | 11 |
As a defensive rebounder Rose is terrible, and dead last in this group. That’s a worry considering the group consists of guys like Nash, Paul and Parker who are all shorter, less physically gifted and not really known as top rate rebounders.
NBA Player | Tot-RR | Rank |
Andre Iguodala | 9.2 | 1 |
Dwyane Wade | 8.9 | 2 |
Rajon Rondo | 7.9 | 3 |
R Westbrook | 7.9 | 3 |
Tyreke Evans | 7.8 | 5 |
Chris Paul | 6.5 | 6 |
Jordan Crawford | 6.2 | 7 |
Derek Rose | 5.9 | 8 |
Deron Williams | 5.9 | 8 |
Steve Nash | 5.5 | 10 |
Tony Parker | 5.1 | 11 |
The total rebounding rate pretty much sums it up. People claim that Rose is an excellent rebounder for a PG, but reality is that he really isn’t. Only two players rank below him in total rebound rate on this list and that is Nash and Parker – both are considered below average rebounders. The big surprise is Deron, who I always thought was a better rebounder than this….but looks like he (like Rose) is pretty average by PG standards, and below average by overall guard standards. Unsurprisingly Rondo is right up there with Westbrook among the elite rebounding guards in the NBA – that is so relatively close to Wade and Iggy is extremely impressive give that they are among the best rebounders in the league at their relative position.
Part 5 – On/Off StatsI know these stats are very controversial on this site because in theory they can be skewed by other factors (such as who else is on the court when the subject is on/off). Regardless, star players typically play between 30-38 minutes per game, so even if a player only plays 30 MPG and also misses half of the season due to injury, that’s still 1,230 minutes played. I believe that is a big enough sample size to cancel out MOST of the anomalies. I’m going to include these, and you can ignore them if you like.
NBA Player | Offensive Rtg | Rank |
Chris Paul | 10.4 | 1 |
Dwyane Wade | 9.5 | 2 |
Deron Williams | 6.8 | 3 |
Steve Nash | 6.6 | 4 |
Derek Rose | 4.8 | 5 |
Rajon Rondo | 3.8 | 6 |
R Westbrook | 3.4 | 7 |
Jordan Crawford | 1.9 | 8 |
Andre Iguodala | 0 | 9 |
Tony Parker | 0 | 10 |
Tyreke Evans | -1.8 | 11 |
According to these stats:
Chris Paul’s and Dwyane Wade’s teams over the past 4 seasons have scored an average of around 10 points per 100 possessions more when they are on the court compared to when they are on the bench. This indicates that both players have a dramatically positive impact on their teams’ offense when they are on the court. Everybody knows they are both elite offensive players, so I have no trouble believing this.
Deron and Nash are next, with their teams over the past 4 seasons being up being up around +6.5 offensively when they are on the court. Both of these guys are two directional players – both skilled scorers and excellent playmakers – so between their scoring and their ability to set up other players this is pretty easy to believe. Remember this is an average of the past four seasons, so it includes the Utah seasons in which Deron was up there with CP3 as one of the elite point guards in the league.
Next come Rose, Rondo and Westbrook who’s teams are all about +3.5 to +4.5 when they are on the court. Rose has the biggest positive impact of those three, with Rondo and Westbrook being about on par.
The rest of the guys have little or no positive impact (Except Tyreke – who is a negative).
I would say based on this that Rose clearly improves his teams’ offense when he is on the court, however doesn’t have the same elite “MVP” type impact that guys like Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade have on their teams offense. Still an All-Star worthy offensive impact though.
NBA Player | Defensive Rtg | Rank |
Tony Parker | -3.9 | 1 |
Andre Iguodala | -3.5 | 2 |
Dwyane Wade | -0.5 | 3 |
Steve Nash | -0.5 | 4 |
Tyreke Evans | 0.2 | 5 |
Chris Paul | 0.4 | 6 |
Rajon Rondo | 0.7 | 7 |
R Westbrook | 2.9 | 8 |
Deron Williams | 3.0 | 9 |
Derek Rose | 4.5 | 10 |
Jordan Crawford | 5.1 | 11 |
There has been a general reputation around the league that Derek Rose is a poor defensive player. Chicago supporters would love to jump up and say this is not true, and that he is actually a pretty good defender.
The data above says otherwise. Derek Rose’s defensive rating ranks second worst on this list, with his teams over the past 4 seasons allowing 4.5 more points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. The only guy on this list that is below him is Jordan Crawford, a guy famous for being a poor defender. The worst thing to me is that Rose has actually played on elite defensive teams for almost his entire career, so if anything his numbers should be skewed in a positive way…the fact that they go the other direction doesn’t speak too highly of his defensive skills.
The positions from 4 through to 7 are all pretty much even – all guys who have very little impact on their teams defense whether they are on the court or not. Rondo falls in this category probably because he gambles a lot on D (which hurts the team), but this is more or less cancelled out by the fact that he is actually has elite defensive skills.
The Tony Parker ranking is a surprise. This might be related to the fact that the Spurs teams he plays on are generally very good defensively (he’s usually on the court with Duncan), or he may just be a much better defensive player than he is given credit for.
Iggy’s ranking is no surprise – he is (and always has been) one of the best defensive players in the NBA.
NBA Player | Net Rtg | Rank |
Chris Paul | 10.0 | 1 |
Dwyane Wade | 10.0 | 1 |
Steve Nash | 7.1 | 3 |
Tony Parker | 3.9 | 4 |
Deron Williams | 3.8 | 5 |
Andre Iguodala | 3.5 | 6 |
Rajon Rondo | 3.0 | 7 |
R Westbrook | 0.5 | 7 |
Derek Rose | 0.3 | 9 |
Tyreke Evans | -2.0 | 9 |
Jordan Crawford | -3.2 | 11 |
He is where Rose’s poor defense hurts him. His team scores about 4.5 more points per 100 possessions when he is on the court, but they also allow about 4.5 more points per 100 possessions when he’s out here. That means all the extra points the teams scores are effectively being neutralised by all the extra points they allow when he’s on the court. His net Off/Def rating is only +0.3 as a result.
If these numbers are anything to go off, Boston actually misses Rondo a lot more than Chicago misses Rose
Part 6 – ConclusionSo now we have a little bit more information to support this Rondo vs Rose debate.
Scoring
Rose is unquestionably the better scorer. He’s a more efficient scorer from 3-9 feet, from 10-15 feet and from three. He gets to the line more often, converts And1’s at double the rate, and shoots a better percentage from the line.
Rondo does hold his own as a scorer in two areas though. He scores more effectively at the basket, and at 16-23 feet they are dead even.
-Winner: Rose
Point Guard Skills
Rondo wins this category just as clearly as Rose wins the scoring. His assist rate is more than 100% higher than Rose, yet he only averages 50% more turnovers. Rondo’s overall Ass/To rate is 33% better which is pretty significant.
-Winner: Rondo
Rebounding
Rondo again is the clear winner here. His Offensive Rebound Rate is 40% better, his Defensive Rebound rate is 30% better, and his Total Rebound Rate is (naturally) 35% better.
–Winner: Rondo
Defense
Rondo wins again. If you look at it subjectively, Rondo has made an All-Defensive team four consecutive seasons (11-12, 10-11, 09-10 and 08-09) and also led the league in steals once (2009-2010). Rose has never led the league in steals or made a single All-Defensive team. Objectively Rondo’s defensive rating is a full 4 points better than Rose, which is a massive difference.
-Winner: Rondo
Overall Winner: Rondo (3-1)
The problem I see with Rose is that his greatest talent is scoring, and yet he still is not an elite scorer at the NBA level. He excels offensively in two area – his ability to finish with contact, and his efficiency scoring from 3-9 feet. Everywhere else on the court he is merely average, and both of these skills rely entirely on his athleticism.
If that athleticism he relies so much on doesn’t fade with all the injuries, it certainly will fade with age. Unless he changes his game as he gets in to his 30’s (the way guys like Jordan and Karl Malone did late in their careers) to counter for that, his average skill set is going to be exposed very quickly.
He also has average pure PG skills (by proper PG standards) and is really more of a shooting guard who has some PG skills (much like D Wade). Unlike Wade though, he lacks the size and strength to defend bigger shooting guards. He’s also a very average rebounder for a guard, and his defense is well below average (almost 37 year old Ray Allen bad).
He’s the stereotypical guard who is massively overhyped because he’s been the “star player on a good team” and because his flashy style of play pleases the cameras and brings fans in to the arenas. In reality though he’s traditionally struggled to carry the load in the playoffs, and despite being the best player on some elite teams he has never led those teams to any significant playoff success.
Finally there is his attitude. Yes Rondo has an “arrogant dude” reputation around the league, but he is a grade A warrior. He plays through some truly horrific injuries, and I have no doubt that if it was playoff time right now (and Boston was in the playoffs) Rondo would be out there on the court. Rose on the other hand sat and watched his Bulls team get eliminated from the playoffs, even after his doctors cleared him to play, while he sat carefree on the bench. The guy has zero drive, zero attitude, zero desire to win. He just wants to go out, chuck up a million shots, and then go home a hero. He’s like the Carmello of Point Guards, only he isn’t because I couldn’t imagine Carmello sitting on the bench while his team is down in the Playoffs.