Celtics draft analysis - November 13th edition

[Chris]

In a season like this, it is never too early to start picking apart draft prospects.  When you are talking about a team like the C's possibly tanking, you want to know what you could be getting.  So, the question is, who is worth tanking for?  Here is my completely unscientific analysis after just a few days of college basketball:

First tier, Guys worth tanking for:

1. Jabari Parker - Not the athlete Wiggins or Randle is, but he has "it".  He is the closest thing I have seen to Durant or Melo.  He needs to get in better shape, and that may improve his explosiveness, but even as he is, he just looks so smooth.  He makes everything look effortless, and is one of those players you always notice.  He has star written all over him.  I think he is can't miss.  He has the go-to guy attitude, and the game to back it up.

2. Wiggins - I question whether he has the killer instinct to be a real superstar.  He just gets lost at times, and unlike Parker, you can forget he is on the floor for stretches.  But the talent is unmistakable, and he is not like the normal guys we have seen without that killer instinct, who could REALLY disappear.  Even when he isn't taking the game over, his nose for the ball, and incredible skills keep him producing.  I am not sure he is a lock to be a real superstar like some think, but I do think there is almost no bust potential.  I think his floor is probably pretty close to Andre Igoudala.  The question is whether he can get much higher than that.

3. Julius Randle - A monster physically, who destroys college competition.  I love the talent, but I think he is a bit of a tweener in his head.  He doesn't know his limitations, and has a little too much Antoine Walker in him.  With that said, he is a beast, and I think he could be a Zach Randolph clone, and has very little bust potential.  His worst case scenario might be Antoine Walker.  That's not so bad.

Guys I haven't seen yet, so I won't rule out:

4. Aaron Gordon - His skills are very intriguing, and he has the potential to be a star...and his production is already impressive at Arizona.  But, I also have a real distaste for the Blake Griffin, all flash game, and that seems to be what Gordon is too.  So, I just am not quite as excited about him.  I want to see him play some games, but based on what I know, I wouldn't be thoroughly disappointed with him, but I wouldn't be that excited either. 

5. Dante Exum - I like what I hear about him, but without seeing him play against NCAA competition this year, I just can't get a strong opinion.  Just going in kind of blind. 

Guys who I would really be disappointed about losing a season of Rondo's prime to tank for:

6. Andrew Harrison - Two games in, he looks like another oversized PG who is dramatically overrated just because he is taller than the average PG.  Doesn't look particularly explosive, and I don't see any remarkable instincts to set him apart.  Maybe he will be a solid PG, but if we are tanking for a PG, I want someone who is lighting up college competition like Chris Paul or Deron Williams.

7. Marcus Smart - Basically the same thing as Harrison, but a year older.  I want production in college from a guy we are looking to be a franchise player...and anyone we tank for needs to be a franchise player IMO.

8. Joel Embiid - Just too raw.  My opinion on him may change as he gets more experience this year, because I do see the potential.  But I also see a HUGE bust potential.  Too risky to bank on.

So, what does all this mean?  Basically I would say the guys on the first tier are no brainers.  Those are guys I would never trade the pick for, and I would be very happy to see the C's end up with.  I would feel like the bad season is worth it, and would feel hopeful about the future.  I would even say they could all thrive playing with Rondo right away.

Tier 2...well, I wouldn't be as ecstatic, but I wouldn't be selling the pick off that quickly.  Those guys are interesting enough that I could get behind them.  But I think they could lead to longer rebuilds.

Tier 3...SELL SELL SELL.  Those are all guys that some team will fall in love with.  If that's who is on the board, I would hope Danny would be doing everything he can to turn that pick into an established star to put next to Rondo. 

[CFAN38]

For the most part I am spot on with your break down.

I do think Marcus Smart will be a franchise level player or very close to one. He is so big and strong at the PG that he will give opponents a lot of trouble. I also like the fact that with his reach, strength and length he should be able to guard any SG under 6'7 in the league.

I was also realy impressed with Joel Embiid in last night KU duke game. For such a raw player he did a great job finding open players out of double teams. His offense is limited but he looks comfortable on the court. Unlike say Fab melo. His natural feel for the game and ridiculous physical tools will go along way. 

[Chris]

]I do think Marcus Smart will be a franchise level player or very close to one. He is so big and strong at the PG that he will give opponents a lot of trouble. I also like the fact that with his reach, strength and length he should be able to guard any SG under 6'7 in the league.

This is what I keep reading about him...but where is the production?  How many franchise players can't dominate in college?  He is not a good shooter, and doesn't seem like a spectacular passer.  Maybe he is one of those guys who will thrive in the NBA, where the handcheck has opened up the lane for super athletic guards.  Maybe he is Derek Rose?  I just haven't seen it yet.

I was also realy impressed with Joel Embiid in last night KU duke game. For such a raw player he did a great job finding open players out of double teams. His offense is limited but he looks comfortable on the court. Unlike say Fab melo. His natural feel for the game and ridiculous physical tools will go along way.

I don't disagree with this.  He looked good for a guy who hasn't played a long time.  But my standards are exceedingly high for this draft.  If he is not going to be a top 20 player in the NBA within 5 years of being drafted, then I am not going to get excited.  And he just looks like such a project.  Yeah, he can pass, but his shot looked terrible, and while he looks good at times on defense, he isn't a game changer at this point. 

[Donoghus]

I have Randle above Wiggins but think your assessments on the top 3 are pretty spot on.

[letsgoblue86]

Wiggins will be waaaaaaaay better than Igoudala.  He will be the no. 1 draft pick regardless of what J. Parker/Randle do this year.

[McHales Pits]

For the most part I am spot on with your break down.

I do think Marcus Smart will be a franchise level player or very close to one. He is so big and strong at the PG that he will give opponents a lot of trouble. I also like the fact that with his reach, strength and length he should be able to guard any SG under 6'7 in the league.

I was also realy impressed with Joel Embiid in last night KU duke game. For such a raw player he did a great job finding open players out of double teams. His offense is limited but he looks comfortable on the court. Unlike say Fab melo. His natural feel for the game and ridiculous physical tools will go along way.

Joel Embiid is actually not as limited offensively as you think. He has good footwork and foot coordination due to a childhood spent playing soccer and volleyball. He also has a good mid-range jump shot. He won't stand out offensively in college though due to all of the weapons on that loaded Kansas team. His role on that team is to play near the hoop for rebounds, tip ins, dunks, and rim protection.

[Chris]

Wiggins will be waaaaaaaay better than Igoudala.  He will be the no. 1 draft pick regardless of what J. Parker/Randle do this year.

I am pretty sure you are right.  But, there is always risk in draft picks, and I think its always good to know their ceiling, their floor, and then figure out where you expect them to end up.  From the top 3, here is how I see that:

Randle: Ceiling - Less Crazy Zach Randolph
Floor - Antoine Walker

Parker: Ceiling - Carmelo with defense
Floor - Danny Granger

Wiggins: Ceiling - Lebron
Floor - Igoudala

Now, the reason these guys are all such impressive picks, and truly tank worthy is that they all have floors IMO that are still close to star level players.  Borderline All-stars.  It is rare to have a draft with 1 sure thing, and a draft with 3 sure things is pretty spectacular.

(disclaimer: the "sure thing" statement is assuming no catestrophic injury problems that completely derail their career, like Greg Oden, who was also a sure thing)

[SHAQATTACK]

Trade Green and Rondo  and Bass for a starting BiG or a high daft pick next year.   .....the tank is on.

Not sure this team sucks quite bad enough to,land these three top players.    Maybe a trade into the top 10 is possible .

Parker is freakin unreal .......To get a chance at him ,  Danny would really have to unload a lot of good players like Suns and Utah did ....to,suck so bad ....they have to get a top five,

I think Parker is a lock at this point to go first.

I m not sure yet which it is .....the Celtics are better than I thought .....is it the coach or the players ?

Stevens doesn't appear to be a tanker.

[nickagneta]

From what I have seen of Wiggins thus far and in international competition, I think his ceiling is more Tracy McGrady than Lebron James. I think its mostly the mental makeup.

[Evantime34]

For the most part I am spot on with your break down.

I do think Marcus Smart will be a franchise level player or very close to one. He is so big and strong at the PG that he will give opponents a lot of trouble. I also like the fact that with his reach, strength and length he should be able to guard any SG under 6'7 in the league.

I was also realy impressed with Joel Embiid in last night KU duke game. For such a raw player he did a great job finding open players out of double teams. His offense is limited but he looks comfortable on the court. Unlike say Fab melo. His natural feel for the game and ridiculous physical tools will go along way.

Joel Embiid is actually not as limited offensively as you think. He has good footwork and foot coordination due to a childhood spent playing soccer and volleyball. He also has a good mid-range jump shot. He won't stand out offensively in college though due to all of the weapons on that loaded Kansas team. His role on that team is to play near the hoop for rebounds, tip ins, dunks, and rim protection.

To me he looked like a good athlete and looked more comfortable facing the hoop to survey the defense before a pass than getting the ball in the post or trying to score. His timing on the defensive end was not great but he still was in the vicinity of a lot of blocks that he could conceivably become a very good player. If the work ethic is there I think he is exactly the type of player the C's need.

Other players I would be happy with if the C's got a late lottery pick.
Isaiah Austin, Will Cauley-Stein, Montrezl Harrell, and Wayne Selden.

[Chris]

From what I have seen of Wiggins thus far and in international competition, I think his ceiling is more Tracy McGrady than Lebron James. I think its mostly the mental makeup.

That's an interesting comp.  And given the body, it may be closer.  The problem with comparing Wiggins to Lebron (who I actually think IS a comp mentally, and has had issues with assertiveness throughout his career), is that Wiggins, while a spectacular athlete, is not built like a linebacker.  That could change as he gets older, but Lebron had a big headstart, even as an 18 year old.  And if Lebron wasn't 280lbs, he would still be really good...but not the player he is today.

McGrady on the other hand did spend most of his career as a much skinnier player, using his speed and athleticism rather than overpowering players. 

But, it's also important to remember with McGrady, that, despite the playoff disappointments (which I would argue weren't his fault), he was a SPECTACULAR player before his body started to give out. 

[CFAN38]

]I do think Marcus Smart will be a franchise level player or very close to one. He is so big and strong at the PG that he will give opponents a lot of trouble. I also like the fact that with his reach, strength and length he should be able to guard any SG under 6'7 in the league.

This is what I keep reading about him...but where is the production?  How many franchise players can't dominate in college?  He is not a good shooter, and doesn't seem like a spectacular passer.  Maybe he is one of those guys who will thrive in the NBA, where the handcheck has opened up the lane for super athletic guards.  Maybe he is Derek Rose?  I just haven't seen it yet.

Smart is statistically in line with the top PGs in the NBA. He is the top steals guy and only rondo was a better rebounder.

Derrick Rose 29mpg 14.9 pts 4.7ast 4.5RB 1.2stl * fresh
Marcus Smart 33mpg 15.4 pts 4.2ast 5.8RB 3.0stl *fresh year
John Wall    35mpg 16.6 pts 6.5ast 4.3rb 1.8stl * fresh
westbrooks   34mpg 12.7 pts 4.3ast 3.9rb 1.6stl *soph year
D Williams   34mpg 12.5 pts 6.8ast 3.6rb 1.0stl * JR year
R Rondo      31mpg 11.2 pts 4.9ast 6.1rb 2.0stl *soph year
Chris Paul   33mpg 15.3 pts 6.6ast 4.5rb 2.4stl *soph year

Two games in smarts numbers are down but so are his minutes. The important thing is he is shooting 41% from 3 in two games. If he matches his fresh stats while increasding FG and 3pt % I have no doubt he is a franchise player.

[Chris]

]I do think Marcus Smart will be a franchise level player or very close to one. He is so big and strong at the PG that he will give opponents a lot of trouble. I also like the fact that with his reach, strength and length he should be able to guard any SG under 6'7 in the league.

This is what I keep reading about him...but where is the production?  How many franchise players can't dominate in college?  He is not a good shooter, and doesn't seem like a spectacular passer.  Maybe he is one of those guys who will thrive in the NBA, where the handcheck has opened up the lane for super athletic guards.  Maybe he is Derek Rose?  I just haven't seen it yet.

Smart is statistically in line with the top PGs in the NBA. He is the top steals guy and only rondo was a better rebounder.

Derrick Rose 29mpg 14.9 pts 4.7ast 4.5RB 1.2stl * fresh
Marcus Smart 33mpg 15.4 pts 4.2ast 5.8RB 3.0stl *fresh year
John Wall    35mpg 16.6 pts 6.5ast 4.3rb 1.8stl * fresh
westbrooks   34mpg 12.7 pts 4.3ast 3.9rb 1.6stl *soph year
D Williams   34mpg 12.5 pts 6.8ast 3.6rb 1.0stl * JR year
R Rondo      31mpg 11.2 pts 4.9ast 6.1rb 2.0stl *soph year
Chris Paul   33mpg 15.3 pts 6.6ast 4.5rb 2.4stl *soph year

Two games in smarts numbers are down but so are his minutes. The important thing is he is shooting 41% from 3 in two games. If he matches his fresh stats while increasding FG and 3pt % I have no doubt he is a franchise player.

Interesting.  I probably should have looked up their numbers.  I just remember watching both Williams and Paul play and saying to myself "wow, he is going to be a star" (actually, I said the same thing about Rondo).  So, I will keep an open mind on Smart.  I still want to see the shooting numbers get MUCH better though.  That was one of the reasons Paul and Williams were so impressive.  It was clear they didn't have any real holes in their games.  They could each shoot, pass, and dribble at an elite level, and defend at least a little. 

[fandrew]

From what I have seen of Wiggins thus far and in international competition, I think his ceiling is more Tracy McGrady than Lebron James. I think its mostly the mental makeup.

Tracy McGrady had a crazy intensity to his game, much like Kobe, KG, Bird, and Wade. I don't think that Lebron has that. He has a lot of focus, athleticism, and skill, as well as incredible discipline. A guy that has the talent and worked hard to develop it, but not the dominant mind that Tracy, Kobe, or Wade have/had.

I see Wiggins has having a style of game similar to McGrady, but a mindset more similar to Lebron. But at the same time, I haven't seen anything in any of the three super freshman that screams a future Kobe-like attitude yet.

[D.o.s.]

From what I have seen of Wiggins thus far and in international competition, I think his ceiling is more Tracy McGrady than Lebron James. I think its mostly the mental makeup.

I mean, if your ceiling is a healthy Tracy McGrady...

I don't think we should throw away the season prematurely, but if we end up with a guy like that, I won't be too upset.