Pacers over Chicago for sure. I've been saying it and it is coming to be, I believe.
They have multiple guys who can score, is the real thing for them. If I needed a bucket, I could go to Paul George or I could go to Lance Stepehenson to create off the dribble, David West and Hibbert can both score in the post when need be (Hibbert in particular is real difficult to stop with his hook shots when he needs a bucket). Hill can hit big shots. Their bench can provide a spark.
Everyone was penciling in the Bulls when we saw them not be able to get over the top vs Miami. When Miami wants to shut down a one man offense they very much can and then no one else on Chicago can really get their own shot. People were assuming some kind of All-Star jump for Jimmy Butler and I haven't seen that in him at all yet (he is a good defender who can catch and shoot and score in transition... so far that's really it).
The Pacers are a more complete teams that is at least as good on defense (even better right now). They are a giant threat to Miami. I loved them coming in but they are playing even better than I imagined. It seems that George, Stephenson, and Hibbert are all making respective jumps to really put this team over the top.